Deploy Offshore Wind Turbines

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Electricity
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Cut Emissions
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Shift Production
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Offshore wind turbines
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Summary

Offshore wind turbines are ocean-based machines that harness natural wind to generate electricity. These turbines use the relatively strong winds over the water to rotate their blades, which power a generator to make electricity. The electricity travels through underwater cables to reach the land. There are two main types: fixed-bottom turbines, which are attached to the seabed in shallow waters (typically up to 60 meters deep), and floating turbines, which sit on platforms anchored in deeper waters. Offshore wind farms can produce more electricity than land-based wind farms because ocean winds are usually stronger and steadier than winds on land.

Deploying additional offshore wind turbines reduces CO₂ emissions by increasing the availability of renewable energy sources to meet electricity demand, therefore reducing dependence on fossil fuel-based sources in the overall electricity grid mix.

Income & work,Health
Nature protection,Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Deploy Offshore Wind is a Highly Recommended climate solution. It offers immense clean energy potential but faces challenges of high costs and competing uses of the seas.
Overview

An estimated 23% of global GHG emissions (100-yr basis) comes from electricity generation (Clarke et al., 2022); in 2022, more than 60% of global electricity generation came from fossil fuel–based energy sources (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2024a).

Offshore wind turbines generate electricity by converting the energy from rotating turbine blades into electrical energy. The main components of offshore wind turbines include rotor blades, a tower to raise the rotor above the water, a nacelle hub that houses the generator and other key components, and a foundation that stabilizes the structure in the water. Offshore wind farms require additional infrastructure to transport generated energy through undersea cables to transformers and power substations before electricity can be supplied to consumers (Figure 1). To optimize performance, offshore turbines often use advanced control systems (e.g., yaw, pitch, and safety sensors).

Figure 1. Simplified schematic of an offshore wind power system, showing electricity flow from wind turbines through array cables, offshore and onshore substations, and transmission and distribution infrastructure to end users.

Schematic diagram of an offshore wind power system.

Source: Ørsted (n.d.) 

Offshore wind turbines are often placed far from the coast to avoid causing noise pollution or taking up space on land. Foundations can be fixed to the seafloor (fixed-bottom) or floating depending on water depth and other characteristics, such as seabed topography and operational logistics (Afridi et al., 2024). Most offshore wind turbines operating in 2023 were fixed-bottom and limited to seafloor depths around 50 meters. Floating wind farms access wind resources over deeper waters, up to 1,000 meters (de La Beaumelle et al., 2023). 

Wind speeds over water are generally higher and more consistent than over land, which allows for more reliable and increased electricity generation. Potential power generated from offshore wind turbines is directly proportional to the swept area of the rotor blades and the wind speed cubed; a doubling of wind speed corresponds to an eightfold increase in power (U.S. Energy Information Administration [U.S. EIA], 2024). The maximum electrical power a turbine can generate is its capacity in MW. The average installed offshore wind turbine rating grew from 7.7 MW in 2022 to 9.7 MW in 2023 (McCoy et al., 2024), with the total global installed capacity reaching 75.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2023 (Global Wind Energy Council [GWEC], 2024).

The global weighted average capacity factor for offshore wind turbines has reached 41% (International Renewable Energy Agency [IRENA], 2024c) – an increase from 38% a decade earlier – driven by advancements in turbine efficiency, hub height, rotor diameter, and siting optimization. Our analysis assumed an offshore wind turbine capacity factor of 41% (IRENA, 2024c). Offshore wind capacity varies across regions due to differences in policy support, coastal geography, water depths, and infrastructure readiness. Electric power output can be converted to energy generated by multiplying capacity by the time interval and the capacity factor. For annual generation, we multiply by 8,760 hours for one year.

The main siting considerations for offshore wind farms are distance from shore and water depth, but energy output can also be impacted by atmospheric wind conditions as well as the configuration of turbines within a wind farm (de La Beaumelle et al., 2023; IRENA, 2024c). Protected areas are also excluded during siting.

Since wind is a clean and renewable resource, offshore wind turbines do not contribute to GHG emissions or air pollution while generating energy. There are emissions associated with the manufacturing and transportation of turbine components. For this assessment, we did not quantify emissions during the construction of offshore wind farms; these emissions can be addressed with industry-sector solution assessments. Increased deployment of offshore wind turbines contributes to reduced CO₂ emissions when it reduces the need for electricity generation from fossil fuels.

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Michael Dioha, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

Internal Reviewers

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

  • Amanda Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Based on data provided by the IEA, global emissions from electricity generation accounted for an estimated 530 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh (540 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh, 20-yr basis). To convert from MWh to MW, we used the global weighted average capacity factor for offshore wind turbines of 41% (IRENA, 2024c). We estimated offshore wind turbines to reduce 1,900 t CO₂‑eq /MW (1,900 t CO₂‑eq /MW, 20-yr basis) of installed capacity annually (Table 1).

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /MW installed capacity/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 1900
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To estimate the effectiveness of offshore wind turbines, we assumed that electricity generated by newly installed offshore wind displaces an equivalent MWh of the global electricity grid mix. Then, the reduction in emissions from additional offshore wind capacity was equal to emissions (per MWh) from the 2023 global electricity grid mix as per the IEA World Energy Balances (IEA, 2024a). We then used the offshore wind capacity factor to convert to annual emissions per MW of installed capacity.

During operation, offshore wind turbines do not emit GHGs, so we assumed zero emissions per MW of installed capacity. However, emissions arise during the manufacturing of components, transportation, installation, maintenance, and decommissioning (Atilgan Turkmen & Germirli Babuna, 2024; Kaldellis & Apostolou, 2017; Mello et al., 2020; Yuan et al., 2023). Life-cycle analyses estimate that lifetime GHG emissions of offshore wind turbines are approximately 25.76 g CO₂‑eq /kWh of electricity generated (Yuan et al., 2023).

In our analysis, we focused solely on emissions produced during electricity generation, so carbon payback time and embodied life-cycle emissions were not included in our estimates of effectiveness or climate impacts. 

Cost

We estimated a mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for offshore wind turbines of US$96/MWh based on three industry reports (IEA, 2024b; IRENA, 2024c; Nuclear Energy Agency & IEA, 2020). LCOE is a widely used metric that allows for cost comparison across generation technologies, incorporating installed capital costs, operation and maintenance, project lifespan, and energy output. Between 2010–2023, the global weighted average LCOE for offshore wind fell by 63%, from US$203/MWh to US$75/MWh, reflecting improvements in turbine size, supply chains, and regulatory support (IRENA, 2024c). 

Regional costs vary significantly. Denmark had the lowest LCOE in 2023 at US$48/MWh due to favorable siting conditions and grid cost exemptions. The UK and Germany achieved the largest LCOE reductions since 2010, of 73% and 67%, respectively (IRENA, 2024c). In contrast, recent U.S. estimates exceed US$120/MWh for unsubsidized projects (McCoy et al., 2024), reflecting higher labor costs, permitting challenges, and nascent supply chains. Lazard (2023) reports a broad range of US$72–140/MWh, emphasizing how siting, project size, and technology selection influence cost outcomes.

These values mask substantial variability and project-specific risk factors. LCOEs are highly sensitive to financing terms, interest rates, permitting delays, regional grid integration requirements, and the availability of local supply chains. For context, offshore wind costs are increasingly competitive with fossil fuel–based power generation, which ranges between US$70–176/MWh (IRENA, 2024c). Offshore wind gigawatt-scale potential near load centers makes it a good potential option for decarbonizing coastal grids.

Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Offshore wind turbines exhibit a clear learning curve, with costs declining as deployment scales and the technology matures. Learning rates for offshore wind could vary from 7.2–43%, depending on the type of costs considered, study period, technological advancements, and regional conditions. Most of the cost decline is driven by reductions in capital expenditure, particularly from larger turbines, improved manufacturing, streamlined installation, and economies of scale.

According to IRENA (2024c), the global weighted-average installed cost of offshore wind between 2010–2023 reflects a learning rate of 14.2%. Modeling by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimates capital cost reductions per doubling of installed capacity at 8.8% for fixed-bottom turbines and 11.5% for floating turbines (Shields et al., 2022). European forecasts suggest that ongoing innovation and learning by doing could reduce offshore wind’s LCOE by up to 25% by 2030 relative to 2020, with learning rates of 6–12% (TNO & BLIX, 2021).

Earlier meta-analyses found offshore wind learning rates of 5–19% between 1985–2001, driven by improved turbine design and installation methods (Rubin et al., 2015). More recent assessments focused on 2010–2016 suggest capital cost learning rates of 10–12% (Beiter et al., 2021). Looking ahead, global experts project cost reductions of 37–49% by 2050 due to continued technological progress (Wiser et al., 2021).

Learning rates also vary by geography. Mature markets like Europe benefit from robust supply chains and permitting frameworks, leading to faster cost declines. On the other hand, emerging markets face higher initial costs and slower learning trajectories. We estimated a 15.8% median global learning rate for offshore wind, implying a 15.8% reduction in LCOE for each doubling of installed capacity (Table 2).

Table 2. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of the installed solution base.

Unit: %

25th percentile 11.9
Mean 15.8
Median (50th percentile) 15.8
75th percentile 19.6
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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Deploy Offshore Wind Turbines is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

One limitation of our approach is the assumption that each additional MWh generated by offshore wind turbines displaces an equivalent MWh of the existing grid mix. This simplification implies that new offshore wind may, at times, displace other renewables such as onshore wind, rather than fossil-based sources. In reality, the extent of avoided emissions varies based on regional grid dynamics, marginal generation sources, and the timing and location of electricity production. This approach could be refined in the future, as emerging evidence suggests that in some cases, wind generation tends to displace a larger share of fossil-fuel output than assumed in average grid-mix methods (e.g., Millstein et al., 2024). While offshore wind avoids many of the land-use constraints associated with onshore wind, it introduces unique challenges that may limit scaling. These include high up-front capital costs, limited port infrastructure, specialized vessels, and supply-chain constraints for large components such as floating platforms and subsea cables. There is also growing competition for ocean space from fisheries, marine conservation zones, and shipping corridors (IEA, 2019).

Like all large-scale infrastructure, offshore wind systems face some risk of early retirement or component failure, which can affect their life-cycle emissions. However, because offshore wind turbines produce zero emissions during operation, any electricity they generate displaces fossil-based power and avoids associated emissions. These benefits are not reversed if a turbine is decommissioned early. Most offshore wind turbines operate for 25–30 years, with newer designs expected to exceed this lifespan (Bills, 2021; IEA, 2019). The bulk of their life-cycle emissions are front-loaded, arising from manufacturing, transportation, and installation. As a result, early retirement reduces the amount of clean electricity generated over the turbine’s lifetime, but it does not erase the emissions already avoided during its operation.

Current Adoption

As of 2023, the global installed capacity for offshore wind energy reached approximately 73,000 MW (Table 3; IRENA, 2024b). Although we used 2023 as our baseline for current adoption, in 2024 an additional 10,000 MW of offshore wind capacity was installed, bringing the global total to over 83,000 MW (GWEC, 2025).

Table 3. Current adoption level, 2023.

Unit: MW installed capacity

Total 73,000
Left Text Column Width

China currently leads in offshore wind deployment, accounting for more than 40 GW, or over half of the global installed capacity. Adoption remains negligible in many countries with several regions – particularly in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Southeast Asia – reporting minimal or no offshore wind installations to date, despite their huge potential (GWEC, 2025). For example, the United States, despite its vast technical potential, had installed only 41 MW by 2023 (IRENA, 2024b).

The global offshore wind market has gained significant momentum in recent years. A record number of new installations occurred in 2021, with continued but slower growth in 2022 and 2023. The most active markets remain concentrated in Asia and Europe, with China, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands leading in cumulative capacity. The European Union collectively reached 18.1 GW by 2023 (IRENA, 2024b), driven by favorable policy environments and advanced maritime infrastructure (IRENA, 2024a).

Adoption Trend

Global offshore wind capacity has grown rapidly, expanding from less than 1 GW in 2000 to about 73 GW by 2023 (Figure 2), reflecting technological progress, supportive policies, and accelerating investment. 

Figure 2. Global offshore wind turbine installed capacity, 2000–2023. Global offshore wind capacity expanded from less than 1 GW in 2000 to about 73 GW by 2023, reflecting rapid technological progress, supportive policies, and accelerating investment in clean energy.

International Renewable Energy Agency. (2024). Renewable capacity statistics 2024. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2024/Mar/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2024.pdf

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We calculated global adoption for each year 2013–2023 and took the year-to-year difference. The adoption trend of offshore wind energy from 2013–2023 reveals a rapid and accelerating growth trajectory with significant regional disparities. Globally, installed capacity expanded from 7,200 MW in 2013 to 73,000 MW in 2023, reflecting a 10-fold increase over the decade. The most dramatic acceleration occurred in 2020–2021, when global capacity jumped from 34,000 MW to 54,000 MW. Comparing year-to-year global adoption, the mean global adoption trend was adding approximately 6,000 MW of installed capacity per year (Table 4), but expansion was unevenly distributed geographically. 

Table 4. Adoption trend, 2013–2023.

Unit: MW installed capacity/yr

25th percentile 3,000
Mean 6,000
Median (50th percentile) 5,000
75th percentile 7,000
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Regionally, Asia demonstrated the most remarkable growth. This growth was particularly pronounced in 2020–2021, when capacity soared from 9,400 MW to 28,000 MW, largely driven by China’s rapid deployment. Meanwhile, Europe also experienced steady growth, with installed capacity increasing from 8,000 MW in 2014 to 33,000 MW in 2023. In contrast, North America lags behind, with only 41 MW of installed capacity recorded as of 2023, indicating slow current adoption trends. The slow adoption of offshore wind technology in North America may be attributed to various factors, including regulatory and social barriers as well as high interest rates (McCoy et al., 2024). 

Looking ahead, according to forecasts from the World Forum Offshore Wind (WFO, 2024), global offshore wind capacity is anticipated to reach 414 GW by 2032. The GWEC projects more than 350 GW of new offshore wind capacity in 2025–2034, with annual additions surpassing 30 GW by 2030 and 50 GW by 2033, bringing total capacity to about 441 GW by 2034 (GWEC, 2025).

Adoption Ceiling

The adoption ceiling for offshore wind turbines (Table 5) is determined by the technology’s global technical potential, representing the theoretical maximum deployment based on physical resource availability. Offshore wind benefits from vast oceanic areas with higher and more consistent wind speeds than onshore sites. However, its realizable potential is shaped by factors such as water depth, distance to shore, seabed conditions, regional wind patterns, and technological limitations.

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption level.

Unit: MW installed capacity

25th percentile 58,000,000
Mean 62,000,000
Median (50th percentile) 62,000,000
75th percentile 67,000,000
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Estimates of offshore wind’s technical potential vary widely. A meta-analysis by de La Beaumelle et al. (2023) found values of 4.17–626 petawatt-hours (PWh)/year, with a median of 193 PWh/year. The World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) analysis (2019; n.d.) suggests over 71,000 GW of global offshore wind potential, with more than 70% located in deep waters suitable only for floating turbines. Roughly 25% of this resource lies within low- and middle-income countries, offering major opportunities for clean energy expansion.

Technical potential is typically calculated using wind speed maps, turbine power curves, and water depth data. For example, the ESMAP-IFC 2019 study identified 3.1 terawatts (TW) of potential across eight emerging markets using global wind and ocean depth data (ESMAP, 2019). These figures, however, do not reflect constraints such as economics, regulation, infrastructure, or marine uses that would compete with offshore wind (ESMAP, 2019). Challenges like ecological impact, permitting, and grid integration could significantly reduce practical deployment.

Despite these hurdles, offshore wind’s potential remains vast. For this analysis, we defined the adoption ceiling using installable capacity rather than generation output to avoid forecasting uncertainty. Based on the literature, we estimated an adoption ceiling of 62,000,000 MW. The scaling of floating wind turbines, especially in deep waters, will be critical to unlocking this resource, and will require continued innovation and policy support (Tumse et al., 2024).

Achievable Adoption

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024 includes several key scenarios that explore different energy futures based on varying levels of policy intervention, technological development, and market dynamics. We define the adoption achievable range for offshore wind turbines based on the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) (IEA, 2024b).

Achievable – Low

The low achievable adoption level is based on STEPS, which captured the current trajectory for increased adoption of offshore wind energy as well as future projections based on existing and announced policies. Under this scenario, offshore wind capacity is projected to increase more than 13-fold from 73,000 MW to 1,000,000 MW by 2050 (Table 6). This corresponds to an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%.

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: MW installed capacity

Current adoption 73,000
Achievable – low 1,000,000
Achievable – high 1,600,000
Adoption ceiling 62,000,000
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Achievable – High

The high achievable adoption level is based on APS, which assumes the same policy framework as STEPS, plus full realization of announced national energy and climate targets – including net-zero commitments supported by stronger clean energy investments. Under this scenario, offshore wind capacity is projected to increase by a magnitude of approximately 22, from 73,000 MW to 1,600,000 MW by 2050 (Table 6). This would require a CAGR of roughly 12.1% over the same period.

Using our adoption ceiling of 62 million MW, the current adoption of offshore wind turbines constitutes approximately 0.1% of its technical potential. The achievable adoption range, as calculated, is 1.6–2.6% of this potential.

Using baseline global adoption and effectiveness, we estimated the current total climate impact of offshore wind turbines to be approximately 0.14 Gt CO₂‑eq (0.14 Gt CO₂‑eq , 20-yr basis) of reduced emissions per year (Table 7). We estimated future climate impacts using the emissions from the 2023 baseline electricity grid. Actual emissions reductions could differ depending on how the emissions intensity of electricity generation changes over time. Assuming global policies on offshore wind power – both existing and announced – are backed with adequate implementation provisions, global adoption could reach 1 million MW by 2050. This would result in an increased emissions reduction of approximately 1.9 Gt CO₂‑eq per year. If every nation’s energy and climate targets (including net-zero commitments backed by stronger clean energy investments) are realized, offshore wind adoption could reach 1.6 million MW by 2050. This would lead to an estimated 3.0 Gt CO₂‑eq of reduced emissions per year. 

Table 7. Annual climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.14
Achievable – low 1.9
Achievable – high 3.0
Adoption ceiling 120
Left Text Column Width

We based the adoption ceiling solely on the technical potential and wind resources, while neglecting social and economic constraints and realistic scenarios of future power demand (Dioha et al, 2025). Offshore wind turbine installed capacity is unlikely to reach 62 million MW, but if current grid emissions remained constant while capacity increased, GHG emission reductions would be approximately 120 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. This maximum is unrealistic as a forward-looking climate impact because it treats grid carbon intensity as permanently fixed at 2023 levels and ignores future decarbonization and corresponding decreases in marginal avoided emissions.

Additional Benefits

Income and Work

Wind power has a strong positive impact on the economy. Wind energy projects have been shown to increase total income and employment in high-income and low- and middle-income countries, although the costs of new projects may be higher in emerging markets until the market develops (Adeyeye et al., 2020; GWEC & Global Wind Organization, 2021; World Bank Group, 2021). As the offshore wind sector expands, so will the demand for workers. A report from NREL estimated that U.S. offshore wind projects between 2024–2030 will require an annual average of 15,000–58,000 full-time workers (Stefek et al., 2022). In California, planned and proposed offshore wind farms would add about 5,750 jobs and US$15 billion in wages and further contribute to the local economy by generating tax revenue (E2, 2023). Offshore wind could also strengthen energy security by diversifying the power mix and reducing dependence on imported fuels.

Health

Reduction in air pollution directly translates into health benefits and avoided premature mortality. Simulations of offshore wind projects in China estimate that reductions in air pollution could prevent about 165,000 premature deaths each year (Ren et al., 2025). Proposed offshore wind farms on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States could prevent about 2,100 premature deaths annually and save money in health benefits from improved air quality (Buonocore et al., 2016; Shawhan et al., 2024). Because these offshore wind projects would lessen demand for natural gas and coal-powered electricity generation, populated communities downwind from power plants along the East Coast of the United States – such as New York City – would experience health benefits from improved air quality (Shawhan et al., 2024). Although the economic benefits of improved health associated with wind power have already increased rapidly from US$2 billion in 2014 to US$16 billion in 2022, these benefits could be maximized by replacing fossil fuel power plants in regions with higher health damages (Qiu et al., 2022). 

Nature Protection

While there are some risks through increased ship traffic and noise and light pollution, offshore wind may provide some benefits to fish and marine life (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, n.d.; Galparsoro et al., 2022; World Economic Forum, 2025). Once constructed, offshore wind farms can serve as an artificial reef, providing new habitats in the submerged portion of the turbine (Degraer et al., 2020). When these habitats are colonized by marine organisms, this increases availability of food such as zooplankton and algae, which can increase the abundance of small fish nearby (Wilhelmsson et al., 2006).

Air Quality

Offshore wind energy reduces air pollutants released from fossil fuels, thereby reducing the emissions associated with burning coal and natural gas. A recent analysis of 32 planned or proposed offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts estimated these projects could reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides by 4%, sulfur dioxide by 5%, and PM 2.5 by 6% (Shawhan et al., 2024). Modeling analyses of offshore wind in China estimate these projects could reduce about 3% of air pollution from electricity by lowering emissions from coal-powered electricity generation (Ren et al., 2025).

Risks

Implementing offshore wind energy involves several risks. Technically, offshore projects face harsh marine environments that can affect long-term reliability and increase maintenance costs (IRENA, 2024a). These risks can be reduced through advanced materials, corrosion‑resistant designs, predictive maintenance systems, and improved installation practices that extend turbine lifespans and reduce downtime. High capital costs and regulatory uncertainty remain among the most significant barriers, especially in emerging markets where financing, insurance, and investor confidence are limited (ESMAP, 2019). Addressing these challenges often requires stable policy frameworks, innovative financing mechanisms such as Contracts for Difference (CFDs) and blended finance, and public‑private partnerships to de‑risk investments and attract private capital. 

There are also ecological risks associated with offshore wind farms, which can disrupt marine habitats, impact migratory birds and marine mammals, and cause seabed disturbances during installation (Galparsoro et al., 2022). Mitigation strategies such as adaptive siting, seasonal construction limits, and biodiversity offsets are increasingly used to minimize these impacts. Social resistance can arise from local communities due to factors such as visual impact, place attachment, perceived lack of benefits, and competing uses of marine space, such as fisheries and shipping lanes (Gonyo et al., 2021; Haggett, 2011).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Increased availability of renewable energy from offshore wind turbines helps reduce emissions from the electricity grid as a whole. Reduced emissions from the electricity grid lead to lower downstream emissions for these solutions that rely on electricity use. Deploying offshore wind turbines also supports increased integration of solar photovoltaic technology by diversifying the renewable energy mix and reducing overreliance on solar variability.

Electrification of transportation systems will be more beneficial in reducing global emissions if the underlying grid includes a higher proportion of non-emitting power sources. Electric transportation systems can also reduce curtailment of wind energy through controlled-time charging and other load-shifting technologies.

Competing

Offshore wind could compete for policy attention, funding, and coastal land with other renewables, potentially slowing their deployment. Implementing or deploying offshore wind turbines requires dedicated coastal land or ocean area use which limits conservation programs and raw material and food production. Offshore wind turbines are large structures that could shade photosynthetic organisms and potentially disrupt coastal and marine ecosystems during installation.

Offshore wind turbines are large structures that could shade photosynthetic organisms and potentially disrupt coastal and marine ecosystems. Fixed-bottom offshore turbines also require infrastructure that could damage bottom sediments and habitats during installation.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

MW installed capacity

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
1,900
units
Current 73,000 01.0×10⁶1.6×10⁶
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.14 1.93.04
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

Offshore wind turbines do not emit GHGs during operation, but they are associated with embodied emissions from manufacturing, transport, and installation (Yuan et al., 2023). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) life-cycle assessment estimates indicate that offshore wind energy produces about 8–35 g CO₂‑eq /kWh, compared to about 400–1,000 g CO₂ --eq/kWh for fossil-based electricity generators (Schlömer et al., 2014).

Increasing steel and concrete demand for turbine construction may cause indirect emissions in the industrial sector. These trade‑offs can be mitigated through circular economy approaches such as recycling and repurposing turbine components to cut material demand and emissions. Despite these trade-offs, the emissions saved over a turbine’s 25- to 30-year lifetime greatly exceed the upfront emissions.

Fixed
Floating

Technical potential for offshore wind

Highlighted areas are suitable for offshore wind development for fixed turbines (those fixed to the seafloor, typically in waters less than 50 meters deep) and floating turbines (those anchored on platforms in waters less than 1,000 meters deep).

Energy Sector Management Assistant Program & The World Bank Group (2021). Global offshore wind technical potential (version 3) [Data set]. The World Bank Group. Link to source: https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037787 

Fixed
Floating

Technical potential for offshore wind

Highlighted areas are suitable for offshore wind development for fixed turbines (those fixed to the seafloor, typically in waters less than 50 meters deep) and floating turbines (those anchored on platforms in waters less than 1,000 meters deep).

Energy Sector Management Assistant Program & The World Bank Group (2021). Global offshore wind technical potential (version 3) [Data set]. The World Bank Group. Link to source: https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037787 

Maps Introduction

Offshore wind energy is most promising in coastal regions with high wind resources and the physical and regulatory capacity to support utility-scale deployment. It is particularly valuable for countries with limited land availability or high coastal population density, offering a scalable and increasingly cost-effective pathway toward decarbonization. Offshore wind’s effectiveness is underpinned by its strong technical fundamentals, especially its relatively high capacity factor.

We estimated global offshore wind technical potential at around 62,000,000 MW. Notably, more than 70% of the technical potential lies in waters deeper than 50 meters. As of 2023, global installed offshore wind capacity had reached 73 GW, a nearly 20-fold increase since 2010. Europe and Asia account for nearly equal shares of current capacity. Europe remains a global leader with around 30 GW, led by the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, and Netherlands. 

In Asia, China dominates the offshore wind space, with more than 30 GW installed and annual additions of nearly 17 GW in 2021 alone. Japan has set targets of 10 GW by 2030 and 30–45 GW by 2040, while South Korea aims for 14.3 GW by 2030 (IRENA, 2024a). The United States has vast offshore wind potential, with NREL estimating 1,476 GW for fixed‑bottom and 2,773 GW for floating installations (Lopez et al., 2022). The United States is beginning to scale up offshore wind through policy support from the Inflation Reduction Act, and large-scale projects are now under development along the East Coast. As of May 31, 2024, the country had 174 MW of offshore wind capacity installed (McCoy et al., 2024). While this installed capacity remains modest compared to Europe or China, it represents an initial step in building the domestic industry. Importantly, the U.S. offshore wind project development and operational pipeline exceeds 80,000 MW, highlighting the scale of development expected in the coming decade. Canada, with 9.3 TW of technical potential (7.2 TW of which is suitable for floating wind), has begun leasing processes in Nova Scotia targeting 5 GW by 2030 and integrating offshore wind into its green hydrogen strategy, while Australia’s Victoria state aims for 9 GW by 2040 (IRENA, 2024a).

Several emerging markets represent strong opportunities for future deployment. Brazil has more than 1,200 GW of estimated technical potential and is currently developing a national framework for offshore wind licensing. India plans to reach 37 GW by 2030, with auctions for 7.2 GW already scheduled (IRENA, 2024a). Other countries such as Vietnam and South Africa are beginning to position themselves as offshore wind markets (IRENA, 2024a).

Action Word
Deploy
Solution Title
Offshore Wind Turbines
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Integrate perspectives from key stakeholders into the decision-making process, including fisherfolk, coastal communities, port authorities, and other groups impacted by offshore wind development.
  • Simplify and standardize offshore environmental licensing and marine spatial planning to accelerate project approvals while preserving biodiversity safeguards.
  • Offer subsidies, grants, low-interest loans, preferential tax policies, and other incentives for developing and operating offshore wind farms and specialized port infrastructures.
  • Develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production and operation – ideally, before development and adoption to prevent accidents.
  • Prioritize expansion of high-voltage subsea and coastal transmission infrastructure.
  • Offer equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and assistance with onsite supervision.
  • Set quotas for power companies and offer expedited permitting processes for renewable energy production, including offshore wind.
  • Set adjustments for wind power on-grid pricing through mechanisms such as feed-in tariffs, renewable energy auctions, or other guaranteed pricing methods for wind energy.
  • Provide financing for research and development to improve the performance of wind turbines, wind forecasting, and other related technology.
  • Mandate onsite wind power forecasting and set standards for data integrity.
  • Create training programs for engineers, operators, and other personnel.
  • Coordinate voluntary agreements with industry to increase offshore wind capacity and power generation.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on wind turbine functionality, benefits, and any public concerns.
  • Implement carbon taxes and use funds to de-risk offshore investments.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Work with external organizations to enter new markets and identify challenges early in development.
  • Plan integrated offshore logistics to anticipate specialized vessel needs and port upgrades.
  • Engage in marine spatial planning and cross-sector stakeholder dialogues to remove conflicts.
  • Investigate community-led or cooperative offshore business models to improve local acceptance.
  • Partner with academic institutions, technical institutions, vocational programs, and other external organizations to provide workforce development programs.
  • Focus research and development efforts on increasing the productivity and efficiency of turbines, improving offshore design, and supporting technology such as wind forecasting.
  • Utilize and integrate materials and designs that enhance recyclability and foster circular supply chains.
  • Participate in voluntary agreements with government bodies to increase policy support for onshore wind capacity and power generation.
  • Support and participate in public awareness campaigns focusing on wind turbine functionality, benefits, and any public concerns.
  • Stay abreast of changing policies, regulations, zoning laws, tax incentives, and other related developments.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Enter into Purchase Power Agreements (PPAs).
  • Purchase high-integrity Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs).
  • Invest in companies that provide offshore wind energy, transmission assets, shared port facilities, component manufacturers, or related technology, such as forecasting.
  • Initiate or join voluntary agreements with national or international bodies and support industry collaboration.
  • Develop workforce partnerships, offer employee scholarships, or sponsor training for careers in offshore wind or related professions such as marine engineering.
  • Support long-term, stable contracts (e.g., power purchase agreements or CFDs) that de-risk investment in floating offshore wind foundation technologies, encouraging their development and deployment.
  • Support community engagement initiatives in areas where you do business to educate and highlight the local economic benefits of offshore wind.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for offshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, quotas, community engagement, and comanagement models.
  • Advocate for fair and transparent benefit-sharing with coastal communities affected by offshore wind.
  • Help conduct proactive land use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that might interfere with protected areas, biodiversity, cultural heritage, or traditional marine uses.
  • Propose or help develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production and operation.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of wind turbines, wind forecasting, and other related technology.
  • Operate or assist with equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Create or assist with training programs for engineers, operators, and other personnel.
  • Coordinate voluntary agreements between governments and industry to increase offshore wind capacity and power generation.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on wind turbine functionality, benefits, and any public concerns. 

Further information:

Investors
  • Invest in the development of offshore wind farms.
  • Invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds that hold offshore wind companies in their portfolios.
  • Consider offering flexible and low-interest loans for developing and operating offshore wind farms.
  • Invest in supporting infrastructure such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Invest in component technology and related science, such as wind forecasting.
  • Help develop insurance products tailored to marine risks and early-stage offshore projects.
  • Invest in green bonds for companies developing offshore wind energy or supporting infrastructure.
  • Align investments with existing public-private partnerships, voluntary agreements, or voluntary guidance that might apply in the location of the investment (including those that apply to biodiversity).

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Provide catalytic financing for or help develop offshore wind farms.
  • Award grants to improve supporting infrastructure such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Support the development of component technology and related science, such as wind forecasting.
  • Fund updates to high-resolution marine wind atlases and oceanographic data systems.
  • Foster cooperation between low- and middle-income countries for floating wind and deepwater innovation in emerging economies.
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for offshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.
  • Propose, build capacity for, or help develop regulations, standards, and codes for marine permitting, offshore market design, equipment production, and operation.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on wind turbine functionality, benefits, and any public concerns.
  • Facilitate partnerships to share wind turbine technology and best practices between established and emerging markets, promoting energy equity and access.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for offshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.
  • Propose or help develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production and operation.
  • Conduct research to improve the performance of wind turbines, wind forecasting, and other related technology.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on how wind turbines function, benefits, and why they are necessary, addressing any public concerns.
  • Advocate for community engagement, respect for Indigenous rights, and preservation of cultural heritage and traditional ways of life to be included in wind power expansion efforts.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Improve the productivity and efficiency of wind turbines.
  • Improve battery capacity for electricity storage.
  • Develop more accurate, timely, and cost-effective means of offshore wind forecasting.
  • Engineer new or improved means of manufacturing towers and components – ideally with locally sourced materials.
  • Enhance design features such as wake steering, bladeless wind power, and quiet wind turbines.
  • Optimize power output, efficiency, and deployment for vertical-axis turbines.
  • Refine methods for retaining power for low-speed winds.
  • Research and develop optimal ways offshore wind can provide habitats for marine species and reduce negative impacts on biodiversity; research total impact of offshore wind on local ecosystems.
  • Develop strategies to minimize the impact of the noise of offshore wind turbines, both under and above water.
  • Develop more accurate forecasting models for the performance of fixed-base and floating offshore wind turbines.
  • Improve the aero-servo-elasticity of floating offshore wind turbines to accommodate more advanced components.
  • Improve existing – or develop new – materials and designs that can withstand marine environments.
  • Help develop designs and operational protocols to facilitate installation, minimize maintenance, improve safety, and reduce overall costs.
  • Develop materials and designs that facilitate recycling and circulate supply chains.
  • Innovate grid connections and transmission infrastructure for offshore and deep-sea wind farms.
  • Improve smart grid connections to manage integrating offshore wind farms.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Purchase high-integrity RECs, which track ownership of renewable energy generation.
  • If your utility company offers transparent green pricing, which charges a premium to cover the extra cost of renewable energy, opt into it if possible.
  • Conduct research on the benefits and development of wind energy and share the information with your friends, family, and networks.
  • Stay informed about wind development projects that impact your community and support them when possible.
  • Support the development of community wind cooperatives or shared ownership structures that allow local communities to directly benefit from offshore wind projects.
  • Participate in public consultations, licensing hearings, and awareness campaigns focused on offshore wind projects.
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for offshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions: High

The scientific literature on offshore wind turbines reflects high consensus regarding their potential to significantly contribute to reducing GHG emissions and supporting the transition to sustainable energy. Technological advancements, decreasing costs, and increasing efficiency have positioned offshore wind as a key player in achieving global climate targets (Jansen et al., 2020; Letcher, 2023). 

Offshore wind turbines reduce GHG emissions by displacing fossil fuel-based electricity generation, thus avoiding the release of CO₂ and other climate pollutants (Akhtar et al., 2024; Nagababu et al., 2023; Shawhan et al., 2025). The strong and consistent wind speeds found over ocean surfaces make offshore turbines especially efficient, with relatively high-capacity factors and increasingly competitive costs (Akhtar et al., 2021; Bosch et al., 2018; Zhou et al., 2022).

The technical potential of offshore wind refers to the maximum electricity generation achievable using available wind resources, constrained only by physical and technological factors. Scientific reviews highlight the significant technical potential of offshore wind to meet global electricity demand many times over, particularly through expansion in deep waters using floating technologies (de La Beaumelle et al., 2023). The World Bank estimates the global technical potential for fixed and floating offshore wind at approximately 71,000 GW globally using current technology (ESMAP, n.d.). With just 83 GW installed so far (GWEC, 2025), this indicates that offshore wind’s potential remains largely untapped. 

The IPCC also sees offshore wind as a key low-emissions technology for achieving net-zero pathways and can be integrated into energy systems at scale with manageable economic and technical challenges (IPCC, 2023). While there is broad scientific agreement on the potential of offshore wind turbines to significantly reduce GHG emissions, there are also growing concerns, including uncertainties around floating platform scalability, ecological impacts, supply chain readiness, and long-term operations. Most of these issues are captured in the Risks & Trade-Offs section of this document.

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 17 peer reviewed academic papers (including 6 reviews and 11 research articles), 2 books and 11 agency or institutional reports, reflecting current evidence from representative regions around the world. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date

Deploy Onshore Wind Turbines

Sector
Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Shift Production
Image
Onshore wind turbines
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

Onshore wind turbines are land-based machines that harness natural wind to generate electricity. Electricity generation from wind turbines depends on many factors, including natural wind speeds, consistency, and directionality. The Deploy Onshore Wind Turbines solution focuses on utility-scale electricity generation above 1 MW in rated capacity, generally from fields of turbines called wind farms. Deploy Micro Wind Turbines and Deploy Offshore Wind Turbines are discussed as separate solutions.

Deploying onshore wind turbines contributes to reduced CO₂ emissions by increasing the availability of renewable energy sources to meet electricity demand, thereby reducing dependence on fossil fuel–based sources in the overall electricity grid mix.

Income & work,Health
Nature protection,Water resources,Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Deploy Onshore Wind Turbines is a Highly Recommended climate solution. It reduces emissions from electricity generation by expanding production of clean and renewable wind energy.
Overview

An estimated 23% of global GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis comes from electricity generation annually (Clarke et al., 2022), and in 2022 more than 60% of global electricity generation came from fossil fuel–based energy sources (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2024c). Since wind is a clean and renewable resource, onshore wind turbines do not contribute to GHG emissions or air pollution while generating energy. The Deploy Onshore Wind Turbines solution reduces the need for electricity generation from fossil fuels, which reduces emissions of CO₂ as well as of smaller amounts of methane and nitrous oxide. 

An onshore wind turbine has a tower with a rotor mounted at the top, connected to a generator. Wind pressure on the turbine blades rotates the rotor, and the generator converts that motion into electrical power. Power potentially generated is directly proportional to the swept area of the rotor blades and the wind speed cubed. Utility-scale turbines require an annual average wind speed of at least 5.8 meters/second (Energy Information Administration [EIA], 2024b). Wind characteristics and technical aspects have a critical impact on electricity generation. Factors include, but are not limited to, wind speed, turbulence, site-specific effects, rotor size, turbine height, generator efficiency, and wind farm layout (Diógenes et al., 2020). Onshore wind farms are often sited where fewer obstacles lead to more consistent wind speeds (Maguire et al., 2024). 

The maximum electrical power a turbine can generate is its installed capacity in MW. Due to changing wind characteristics and operational decisions, onshore wind turbines do not always operate at maximum capacity. The capacity factor of a turbine captures the actual amount of power generated compared with maximum generation if the turbine always operated at its rated capacity. Due to technological improvements over the past decade, global weighted average capacity factors increased from 27% in 2010 to 36% in 2023 and can exceed 50% in some countries (International Renewable Energy Agency [IRENA], 2024a).

Utility-scale wind farms are connected to the grid to provide electricity. Electric power output can be converted to energy generated by multiplying capacity by the capacity factor and a specified time interval. For annual generation, we multiplied by one year and used our estimated median global capacity factor (37%). In 2023, onshore wind turbines generated 2,089 TWh of electricity, approximately 7% of global electricity generation (IEA, 2024c).

Onshore wind turbines can be classified according to their orientation. Horizontal-axis turbines need to face their rotors into the wind to generate power, while vertical-axis turbines operate independently of wind direction. Utility-scale onshore wind turbines are mostly horizontal-axis rotors with three blades, but smaller scale turbines (see Deploy Micro Wind Turbines) can have more complex rotor designs for a variety of applications. The International Electrical Commission (IEC) standardizes wind turbine classifications with distinct designs to maximize energy capture for different sites (IEC, 2019). Wind farms also require distribution systems to transport electricity to locations of electricity demand. 

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Ted Otte

  • Michael Dioha, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Zoltan Nagy, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Based on IEA data, global emissions from electricity generation accounted for an estimated 530 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh (540 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh, 20-year basis). To convert from MWh to MW, we used the median global average capacity factor for onshore wind turbines of 37% (IRENA, 2024a). We estimated onshore wind turbines to reduce 1,700 t CO₂‑eq /MW (1,700 t CO₂‑eq /MW, 20-year basis) of installed capacity annually (Table 1).

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions. 

Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-year basis)/MW installed capacity/yr

Estimate 1,700
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To estimate the effectiveness of onshore wind turbines, we assumed that electricity generated by new installations displaces an equivalent MWh of the global electricity grid mix. Then, the reduction in emissions from additional onshore wind capacity was equal to emissions (per MWh) from the 2023 global electricity grid mix (IEA, 2024c). We then used the onshore wind capacity factor to convert to annual emissions per MW of installed capacity.

During operation, onshore wind turbines do not emit GHGs. Life-cycle analyses for onshore wind turbines have estimated lifetime GHG emissions as very low, 7–20 g CO₂‑eq per kWh (100-year) of electricity generated (Barthelmie et al., 2021; Wiser et al., 2011). Emissions from manufacturing, transportation, installation, and decommissioning are commonly paid back in less than two years of wind farm operation (Diógenes et al., 2020; Haces-Fernandez et al., 2022; Kaldellis & Zafirakis, 2011). 

Our analysis focused solely on emissions produced during electricity generation; emissions associated with construction and installation of onshore wind are attributed to the Industry, Materials & Waste sector. Thus, we did not include carbon payback time and embodied life-cycle emissions in our estimates of effectiveness, even though this may overestimate climate impacts. We qualitatively discuss life-cycle emissions in Caveats below.

Cost

We estimated a mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind turbines of US$52/MWh based on three industry reports (IEA, 2024d; IEA, 2020; IRENA, 2024a). LCOE is commonly used to compare costs across electricity generation technologies because it provides a single metric that combines total installed costs, costs of capital, operating and maintenance costs, the capacity factor, and lifetime of the project (EIA, 2022; Shah & Bazilian, 2020). 

In many global markets, wind power is one of the cheapest ways to generate electricity per MWh (IEA, 2024d); in 2023, newly commissioned onshore wind projects had lower electricity costs than the weighted average LCOE for fossil fuels, which was US$70–176/MWh (IRENA, 2024a). According to IRENA, the global weighted average LCOE for onshore wind turbines declined 91% between 1984–2023 (IRENA, 2024a). Although turbine prices increase with height, revenue from increased power generation available to larger turbines can offset increases in upfront costs, reducing LCOE (Beiter et al., 2021). Additional factors influencing cost-competitiveness of onshore wind include regional energy market fluctuations, social costs of carbon, and subsidies. These factors are not included in our analysis, but some policy levers are discussed in Take Action below. 

Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Learning rates for onshore wind vary widely due to different underlying assumptions, geographies, and performance metrics. Past learning rate estimates for wind power ranged from –3%, implying that wind power is more expensive over time, to 33% (Beiter et al., 2021). Learning-by-doing rates, based on experience accumulated as capacity increases, ranged from 1–17%, while learning-by-research rates, based on innovation and technological development, ranged from 5–27% (Williams et al., 2017).

More recent LCOE-based learning rate estimates suggest a 10%–20% reduction in LCOE when cumulative global capacity is doubled (Wiser et al., 2021). Since upfront costs are the largest component of LCOE for onshore wind, the reduction in LCOE was driven by a 9–18% decrease in capital expenditures between 2014–2019 due to “turbine price declines, economies of size, technology innovation, and siting choices” (Beiter et al., 2021). Between 2008–2020, onshore wind turbine prices declined by 50% (Wiser et al., 2024). Additionally, installed costs per megawatt decreased with increasing project size, and wind farms above 200 MW had the lowest installed costs (Wiser et al., 2024). Supply chain bottlenecks and higher material costs caused project cost increases between 2020–2022, but in 2023 prices flattened or dropped compared to the previous year (Wiser et al., 2024). Industry experts predicted a 37–49% reduction in wind turbine costs by 2050 (Wiser et al., 2021).

Although learning rates vary from country to country and site to site, we used two high-quality global studies that provided LCOEs for onshore wind to estimate a global learning rate for onshore wind. This resulted in a 28% median global learning rate between 2014–2019 for onshore wind, implying a 28% reduction in LCOE for each doubling of installed capacity during that time period (Table 2). 

Table 2. Learning rate: drop in LCOE per doubling of the installed solution base.

 Unit: %

25th percentile 21
Mean 28
Median (50th percentile) 28
75th percentile 34
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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Deploy Onshore Wind Turbines is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

Emissions from fossil fuel–based electricity generation can be reduced with increased deployment of wind power. One limitation of our approach is assuming that each additional MWh of installed capacity displaces one MWh of the existing grid mix. This implies that new onshore wind may, at times, displace other renewables, rather than fossil-based sources. In reality, the extent of avoided emissions varies based on regional grid dynamics, marginal generation sources, and the timing and location of electricity production. This approach could be refined in the future, since wind generation could displace a larger share of fossil-fuel output than assumed in average grid-mix methods (e.g., Millstein et al., 2024). We may overestimate the achievable range of climate impacts because grid-average emissions would decrease over time as more renewables are added to the grid mix. In regions where utility-scale wind farms contribute significantly to the electricity grid, continued expansion also faces socio-ecological challenges due to limited available land with good wind conditions (da Silva and Galvão, 2022). 

Increasing the speed of adoption of onshore wind turbines could lead to issues such as lack of financing, supply chain bottlenecks, land and permit availability, social acceptance, and necessary grid and infrastructure expansion (GWEC, 2024). Globally, bottlenecks in supply chains alongside increased commodity prices for steel and other turbine materials in recent years led to a slowdown in wind power installations compared to solar (Mathis & Saul, 2024). Poor governance and low stakeholder engagement from utilities can also limit future adoption.

Due to the successful adoption of onshore wind in the past, many existing wind farms will reach the end of their average 20- to 25-year project lifetime before 2050 (IEA, 2024b; IRENA, 2024a; Wiser et al., 2024). Global wind energy capacity could decrease as wind farms are decommissioned, which involves dismantling and disposal of turbines and related infrastructure (Agra Neto et al., 2024). However, it is unlikely that a wind farm would be replaced with a nonrenewable energy source (Maguire et al., 2024). Although 85–90% of turbine raw materials can be recycled, including steel and cement, composite materials are still landfilled, with environmental consequences (Barthelmie et al., 2021; GWEC, 2024). Wind farms can also be retrofitted or repowered at the end of their design lifetimes.

GHGs are emitted during construction, installation, operation, decommissioning, and disposal of onshore wind turbines, but full life-cycle emissions are an order of magnitude lower than emissions from fossil fuel–based energy sources (Barthelmie et al., 2021; National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL], 2021). Nonoperational emissions are attributed to solutions in the Industry, Materials & Waste sector.

Current Adoption

Current adoption of onshore wind power is well documented by international agencies; we based our estimate on reported installed capacity in 2023 from IRENA, IEA, and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). Globally, onshore wind turbines exceeded 940,000 MW of installed capacity in 2023 (Table 3), based on the median across three global wind energy reports (GWEC, 2024; IEA, 2024d; IRENA, 2024b). Although we used 2023 as our baseline for current adoption, in 2024 an additional 109 GW of onshore wind capacity was installed, bringing the global total to over 1 million MW (GWEC, 2025).

Table 3. Current adoption level (2023).

Unit: MW installed capacity

Median 940,000
Left Text Column Width

Based on data from IRENA, onshore wind turbines generated electricity in 133 countries (IRENA, 2024b). At the country level, China led the market with more than 400,000 MW, and the lowest current adoption was in Trinidad and Tobago with 0.01 MW. Median country-level adoption was in Mongolia with 160 MW of installed capacity. Countries with less than 1 MW of installed capacity each were excluded from analysis, but their combined installed capacity was 6.4 MW across 16 countries. See Geographic Guidance for more regional details.

Adoption Trend

Based on the IRENA’s 2024 Renewable Energy Statistics, we calculated the global adoption trend by summing adoption across countries for each year between 2013–2023 and taking the year-to-year difference. Comparing year-to-year global adoption, the median global adoption trend was adding 54,000 MW of installed capacity per year (Table 4, Figure 1), but expansion was unevenly distributed geographically. 

Table 4. Adoption trend (2013–2023).

Unit: MW installed capacity per year

25th percentile 46,000
Mean 62,000
Median (50th percentile) 54,000
75th percentile 70,000
Left Text Column Width

Figure 1. Global adoption of onshore wind turbines, 2000–2023. Copyright © IRENA 2024

International Renewable Energy Agency. (2024b). Renewable energy capacity statistics 2024—Data product.

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Between 2010–2023, global cumulative onshore wind installed increased more than fourfold (IRENA, 2024a). Globally new onshore wind deployment declined between 2020–2022, but this trend reversed in 2023 with record global additions of 108,000 MW for a single year (GWEC, 2024; IEA, 2024b). GWEC projected that average annual installations would continue to increase, with 653,000 MW predicted to be added in 2024–2028 (GWEC, 2024).

Adoption Ceiling

The availability of wind resources sets the absolute upper limit of the adoption ceiling for onshore wind turbines with additional constraints due to land availability. However, wind resources are not evenly distributed around the world, so there will also be regional adoption ceilings for different countries (Wiser et al., 2011). In the literature, the global technical potential for onshore wind energy is calculated using power curves for turbines, statistical wind speed maps, and simulations (Jacobson & Archer, 2012; Jung, 2024). Land availability constrains the adoption ceiling because siting includes assessments of land cover type and exclusions of protected areas, bodies of water, and urban areas (Angliviel de La Beaumelle et al., 2023). 

At COP28 in 2023, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 (IEA, 2024a). For onshore wind turbines, tripling capacity would mean accelerating adoption to nearly 270,000 MW installed annually. If that accelerated adoption trend is maintained between 2030–2050, the tripling pledge would result in more than 8.2 million MW of onshore wind turbine installed capacity by 2050. Additionally, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario in IEA’s World Energy Outlook projected 7.9 million MW of installed capacity for onshore and offshore wind power combined (IEA, 2024d), but we do not include combined wind power estimates in our adoption ceiling. For our analysis, we use the median technical potential to get an adoption ceiling of 12 million MW installed capacity for onshore wind turbines (Table 5).

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption level.

Unit: MW installed capacity

25th percentile 7,700,000
Mean 28,000,000
Median (50th percentile) 12,000,000
75th percentile 32,000,000
Left Text Column Width
Achievable Adoption

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024 includes several key scenarios that explore different energy futures based on varying levels of policy intervention, technological development, and market dynamics. We define the adoption achievable range for onshore wind turbines based on the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) (IEA, 2024d).

Achievable – Low

The Achievable – Low adoption level is based on STEPS, which captured the current trajectory for increased adoption of onshore wind energy as well as future projections based on existing and announced policies. Under this scenario, onshore wind capacity is projected to increase more than threefold from 940,000 MW to 3,200,000 MW by 2050 (Table 6). 

Achievable – High

The Achievable – High adoption level is based on APS, which assumes the same policy framework as STEPS, plus full realization of announced national energy and climate targets, including net-zero commitments supported by stronger clean energy investments. Under this scenario, onshore wind capacity is projected to increase more than fourfold from 940,000 MW to 4,400,000 MW by 2050 (Table 6).

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: MW installed capacity

Current adoption 940,000
Achievable – low 3,200,000
Achievable – high 4,400,000
Adoption ceiling 12,000,000
Left Text Column Width

Current adoption of onshore wind turbines was nearly 8% of our estimated 12 million MW adoption ceiling and the achievable range is between 27% and 37%.

Based on baseline global adoption and effectiveness, we estimate the current total climate impact of onshore wind turbines to be 1.6 Gt CO₂‑eq (1.6 Gt CO₂‑eq , 20-year basis) of reduced emissions per year. We estimated the achievable range of climate impacts using the emissions from the 2023 baseline electricity grid; actual emissions reductions could differ depending on how the emissions intensity of electricity generation changes over time. The IEA Stated Policies Scenario projected that global adoption would reach 3.2 million MW by 2050 (IEA, 2024d), resulting in an increased emissions reduction of 5.4 Gt CO₂‑eq (5.4 Gt CO₂‑eq , 20-year basis) per year. The IEA Announced Pledges Scenario projected 4.4 million MW of installed capacity by 2050 (IEA, 2024d), implying an estimated 7.5 Gt CO₂‑eq (7.5 Gt CO₂‑eq , 20-year basis) of reduced emissions per year (Table 7).

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq (100-year basis) per year

Current adoption 1.6
Achievable – low 5.4
Achievable – high 7.5
Adoption ceiling 20
Left Text Column Width

We based the adoption ceiling solely on the technical potential and wind resources, while neglecting social and economic constraints and realistic scenarios of future power demand (Dioha et al, 2025). Onshore wind turbine installed capacity is unlikely to reach 12 million MW, but if current grid emissions remained constant while capacity increased, GHG emission reductions would be approximately 20 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. This maximum is unrealistic as a forward-looking climate impact because it treats grid carbon intensity as permanently fixed at 2023 levels and ignores future decarbonization and corresponding decreases in marginal avoided emissions.

Additional Benefits

Income and Work

Wind power has a strong positive impact on the economy. Wind energy projects have been shown to increase both total income and employment in high-, low-, and middle-income countries, although the costs of new projects may be higher in emerging markets until the market develops (Adeyeye et al., 2020; GWEC & GWO, 2021; World Bank, 2021). According to the GWEC & GWO (2023), the wind industry will need more than half a million new technicians to reach renewable energy goals. Technical roles will also be supported by additional jobs for engineers, manufacturers, analysts, and managers. Many of these jobs are in the construction sector. They also include technicians, engineers, manufacturers, analysts, and managers. In the United States, wind energy employed more than 125,000 workers in 2022 (Hartman, 2024). Onshore wind could also strengthen energy security by diversifying the power mix and reducing dependence on imported fuels. 

Health

Improvements in air quality offer health benefits from reduced air pollution exposure, including reduced premature mortality. The magnitude and distribution of these benefits depends on the local electricity grid mix and the fuels used to generate electricity (Qiu et al., 2022). In 2022, the air quality health benefits from wind power amounted to US$16 billion at a rate of US$36 per megawatt-hour (Millstein et al., 2024). Health benefits of onshore wind can be greater for racial and ethnic minority groups and low-income populations, who often face higher exposure burdens from fossil-fuel electricity generation; however these benefits also depend on the existing grid and on how pollutants are transported in the atmosphere (Qiu et al., 2022). In the United States, economic benefits of improved health outcomes have already increased from US$2 billion in 2014 to US$16 billion in 2022, but these benefits could be maximized by replacing fossil-fuel power plants in regions with higher health damages (Qiu et al., 2022). 

Nature Protection

While some wind power systems could displace species through habitat loss, careful planning and development could reduce some of these risks and conserve biodiversity (Kati et al., 2021; Tolvanen et al., 2023). Wind-powered electricity generation can benefit the environment by requiring less water than fossil fuel–powered electricity. According to a life-cycle analysis by Meldrum et al. (2013), wind power has the lowest water consumption of all electricity generation methods. 

Water Resources

For a description of water resources benefits, please refer to the Nature Protection section.

Air Quality

Wind energy significantly reduces air pollutants released from fossil-fuel energy generation, thereby avoiding the emission of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter associated with burning coal and natural gas. In the U.S. Midwest, each MWh of wind energy added to the grid can avoid 4.9 pounds of sulfur dioxide and 2.0 pounds of nitrous oxides (Nordman, 2013). A life-cycle analysis of wind power in China found that wind farms could reduce sulfur dioxide,, nitrous oxides, and PM10 emissions by 80.38%, 57.31%, and 30.91%, respectively, compared with emissions from coal-based power plants (Xue et al., 2015). 

Risks

Several key risks could prevent growth in installed capacity of onshore wind turbines. Electricity generation from onshore wind turbines inherently fluctuates because wind speeds vary temporally and spatially. Onshore wind turbines face challenges integrating into regional electricity grids (Diógenes et al., 2020; Shafiullah et al., 2013), depending on their location. To reliably meet demand, many grid mixes rely on backup power from coal and natural gas (Haces-Fernandez et al., 2022; Millstein et al., 2024) – although advances in smart grids, storage, and grid flexibility can help reduce reliance on backup fossil-fuel power. Times of high wind generation can create instability (Smith, 2024), leading turbine operators to curtail power output to prevent overloading the electricity grid. Curtailment can also occur due to infrastructure limitations or market conditions (Hartman, 2024). However, we found that curtailment was often small: In 2018, less than 2% of wind power was curtailed in the United States and Germany (Zhang et al., 2020). Intermittency in wind energy could also drive increases in electricity costs, but this can be reduced through a variety of generation-side, demand-side, and storage technologies (Ren et al., 2017).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing 

Increased availability of renewable energy from onshore wind turbines helps reduce emissions from the electricity grid as a whole. Reduced emissions from the electricity grid lead to lower downstream emissions for solutions that rely on electricity use. Deploying onshore wind turbines also supports increased integration of solar PV by diversifying the renewable energy mix and reducing overreliance on solar variability.

Automated and more efficient use of electricity in buildings can shift energy use to times of high renewable generation and reduce electricity demand to help balance intermittency challenges of onshore wind energy.

Electrification of transportation systems will be more beneficial in reducing global emissions if the underlying grid includes a higher proportion of non-emitting power sources. Electric transportation systems can also reduce curtailment of wind energy through controlled-time charging and other load-shifting technologies.

Competing

Deploying onshore wind energy requires dedicated land use which limits land availability for other renewable energy technologies, raw material and food production, and conservation programs. Deploy Onshore Wind Turbines competes with the following solutions for land:

Dashboard

Solution Basics

MW installed capacity

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
1,700
units
Current 940,000 03.2×10⁶4.4×10⁶
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 1.6 5.47.5
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

Siting, transportation, and transmission challenges involve trade-offs between electricity generation requirements, cost, and impacts to people and the environment (Tarfarte & Lehmann, 2023). Construction delays occur due to regulatory and permitting challenges (McKenna et al., 2025; Timilsina et al., 2013). Larger turbines, which provide more power, also exacerbate logistical challenges of construction, transportation, installation, and optimization (Afridi et al., 2024). Construction and siting of new onshore wind farms could threaten land used for agriculture, Indigenous land rights, cultural landscapes, and ecosystems if not carefully assessed during project planning phases, including minimizing visual disturbances and vibrations (Gorayeb et al., 2018; McKenna et al., 2025; Tolvanen et al., 2023). There are emissions associated with land use change (LUC) for new wind farms because sequestered carbon is released as CO₂ when soil is disturbed during construction. The magnitude of LUC emissions depends on the land cover type that the wind farm replaces. LUC emissions caused by constructing on pastureland, cropland, and forests were 6–17% of annual emissions savings from deploying the wind turbines (Albanito et al., 2022; Marashli et al., 2022), and constructing on peatlands could cause emissions greater than the emission savings (Albanito et al., 2022). 

m/s
0≥ 10

Mean Wind Speed at 100 meters above surface

This map shows average wind speeds at 100 meters above the surface, roughly the height of modern turbine towers. Wind speeds above 6 meters per second (m/s) are generally suitable for onshore wind farms, while 9–10 m/s and higher are considered excellent for power generation. The color scale highlights differences: lighter areas show weaker winds, while darker areas indicate strong winds that make onshore projects most efficient.

Global Wind Atlas (2025). Mean wind speed (version 4.0) [Data set]. Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Link to source: https://globalwindatlas.info/

m/s
0≥ 10

Mean Wind Speed at 100 meters above surface

This map shows average wind speeds at 100 meters above the surface, roughly the height of modern turbine towers. Wind speeds above 6 meters per second (m/s) are generally suitable for onshore wind farms, while 9–10 m/s and higher are considered excellent for power generation. The color scale highlights differences: lighter areas show weaker winds, while darker areas indicate strong winds that make onshore projects most efficient.

Global Wind Atlas (2025). Mean wind speed (version 4.0) [Data set]. Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Link to source: https://globalwindatlas.info/

Maps Introduction

China, the United States, and Germany lead the market for installed onshore wind capacity, with 60% of global capacity in the United States and China. Installed capacity in China alone was greater than installed capacity across the rest of the world, excluding the United States (IRENA, 2024b). 

Capacity factors vary geographically. In 2023, Brazil had the sixth-highest installed capacity globally (29,000 MW) and reported the highest capacity factors, 54%, while capacity factors in China were only 34%, below the global median capacity factor of 37% (IRENA, 2024b). Higher capacity factors lead to better performance and increased electricity output from clean energy sources.

Regions with fossil fuel–dominated grid mixes use onshore wind turbines to diversify electricity sources and cut emissions from electricity generation. Although China led the onshore wind market in 2023, wind energy from both offshore and onshore turbines only accounted for 6% of electricity generation in Asia and the Pacific, while 56% came from coal (IEA, 2022a). Germany and Spain had the highest installed capacity in Europe as of 2023 with combined onshore and offshore energy contributing 14% of total electricity generation, the highest percentage of any regional grid (IEA, 2022b). 

While expanding onshore wind in established markets such as Europe is important, targeting regions with little to no electricity generation from renewables could have a larger impact on emissions reductions by providing a clean energy alternative to fossil fuels. It is also critical to ensure that as wind power expands into low- and middle-income countries, the transition to a more renewable electricity grid is done equitably and benefits local communities (Gorayeb et al., 2018).

In 2023, China, the United States, Brazil, Germany, and India cumulatively made up 82% of new global additions to onshore wind capacity (Global Wind Energy Council [GWEC], 2024). Across all countries with new onshore wind installations in 2023, the median global trend was adding 39 MW of installed capacity per year, but expansion was unevenly distributed around the world. China and India were examples of rapidly expanding markets, with adoption trends of more than 32,000 MW per year and 2,600 MW per year, respectively. Despite a reduction in installations in 2023 compared with 2022, previous installations in the United States contributed to a high 10-year adoption trend of 8,800 MW per year (IRENA, 2024b). The slowest expanding countries, Denmark and the Netherlands, were adding 130–430 MW of onshore wind turbine capacity per year, most likely due to highly saturated existing markets for wind power. 

There is ample technical potential for onshore wind adoption in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and the Pacific, although current installed capacity is relatively low in those regions (IRENA, 2024b; Wiser et al., 2011). The Global Wind Energy Council highlighted Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Japan, Kenya, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the United States, and Vietnam as markets to watch for growth (GWEC, 2024).

Action Word
Deploy
Solution Title
Onshore Wind Turbines
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Coordinate wind power policies horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts), ensuring an inclusive process for impacted communities and consumers.
  • Develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production, safe operation, and quick deployment – ideally, before development and adoption to prevent accidents and delays.
  • Offer equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and assistance with onsite supervision
  • Set quotas for power companies and offer expedited permitting processes for renewable energy production, including onshore wind, while maintaining environmental safeguards.
  • Set adjustments for wind power on-grid pricing through schemes such as feed-in tariffs, renewable energy auctions, or other guaranteed pricing methods for wind energy.
  • Offer subsidies, grants, low-interest loans, and preferential tax policies for manufacturers, developers, and operators of onshore wind farms.
  • Invest in and develop grid infrastructure – particularly, high-voltage transmission capacity.
  • Provide financing for research and development (R&D) to improve the performance of wind turbines, wind forecasting, and related technology.
  • Mandate onsite wind power forecasting and set standards for data integrity.
  • Create training programs for engineers, operators, and other personnel.
  • Coordinate voluntary agreements with industry to increase onshore wind capacity and power generation.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on how wind turbines function, their benefits, and any public concerns.
  • Disincentivize fuel-based power generation and use funds to subsidize new onshore wind investments.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Work with external organizations to enter new markets and identify challenges early in development.
  • Participate in, offer, or explore coinvestments in, electricity infrastructure (e.g., shared transmission).
  • Partner with academic institutions and other external organizations to provide workforce development programs.
  • Focus R&D on increasing the productivity and efficiency of turbines, especially in areas with lower wind conditions, and on supporting technology such as wind forecasting.
  • Consider leasing usable land for onshore wind development.
  • Participate in voluntary agreements with government bodies to increase policy support for onshore wind capacity and power generation.
  • Conduct integrated logistics planning to anticipate transport challenges for large turbine components.
  • Strengthen local workforce skills through partnerships with technical schools and vocational programs.
  • Support and participate in public awareness campaigns focusing on how wind turbines function, their benefits, and any public concerns.
  • Stay abreast of and engage with changing policies, regulations, zoning laws, tax incentives, and related developments to help remove commercial barriers.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Enter into Purchase Power Agreements (PPAs), long-term contracts between a company (the buyer) and a renewable energy producer (the seller).
  • Purchase high-integrity renewable energy certificates (RECs), which track ownership of renewable energy generation.
  • Support long-term, stable contracts (e.g., PPAs or Contracts for Difference) that de-risk investment in onshore wind technologies and incentivize local supply chain development.
  • Invest in companies that provide onshore wind energy, those that make components for onshore wind, or those that develop related technology, such as forecasting.
  • Initiate or join voluntary agreements with national or international bodies and support industry collaboration.
  • Support workforce development programs and/or offer employee scholarships or sponsor training for careers in onshore wind.
  • Support community engagement initiatives in areas where you do business to educate and highlight the local economic benefits of onshore wind.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for onshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.
  • Propose or help develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production, safe operation, and quick deployment.
  • Advocate for equitable sharing of revenue and taxes in areas that produce wind power.
  • Support fair benefit-sharing arrangements and conflict resolution mechanisms to settle land use disputes.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of wind turbines, wind forecasting, and related technology.
  • Operate or help with equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Create or help with training programs for engineers, operators, and other personnel.
  • Coordinate voluntary agreements between governments and industry to increase onshore wind capacity and power generation.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on how wind turbines function, their benefits, and any public concerns.

Further information:

Investors
  • Invest in the development of onshore wind farms.
  • Consider offering flexible and low-interest loans for developing and operating onshore wind farms.
  • Invest in supporting infrastructures such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Invest in component technology and related science, such as wind forecasting.
  • Invest in green bonds and/or explore blended finance structures to mobilize capital for companies developing onshore wind energy or supporting infrastructure.
  • Help develop insurance products for onshore wind in emerging markets.
  • Align investments with existing public-private partnerships, voluntary agreements, or voluntary guidance that may apply in the location of the investment (including those that apply to biodiversity).

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Provide catalytic financing for, or help develop, onshore wind farms.
  • Award grants to improve supporting infrastructures such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Support the development of component technology and related science, such as wind forecasting.
  • Fund updates to high-resolution wind atlases and data platforms to improve resource assessment and project planning.
  • Facilitate partnerships to share wind turbine technology and best practices between established and emerging markets, promoting energy equity and access.
  • Foster cooperation and technology transfer between low- and middle-income countries with emerging wind sectors.
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for onshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.
  • Propose or help develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production, safe operation, and quick deployment.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on how wind turbines function, their benefits, and any public concerns.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for onshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.
  • Propose or help develop regulations, standards, and codes to ensure quality equipment production, safe operation, and quick deployment.
  • Conduct research to improve the performance of wind turbines, wind forecasting, and related technology.
  • Initiate public awareness campaigns focusing on how wind turbines function, their benefits, why they are necessary, and any public concerns.
  • Advocate for inclusion of community engagement, respect for Indigenous rights, and preservation of cultural heritage and traditional ways of life in wind power expansion efforts.
  • Advance academic and/or public discourse on fully pricing fossil-fuel externalities to improve fair competition for renewables.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Improve the productivity and efficiency of wind turbines.
  • Improve battery capacity for electricity storage.
  • Develop more accurate, timely, and cost-effective means of wind forecasting.
  • Develop siting maps that highlight exclusion zones for Indigenous lands, cultural heritage sites, and biodiversity hot spots.
  • Engineer new or improved means of manufacturing towers and components – ideally with locally sourced materials.
  • Enhance design features such as wake steering, bladeless wind power, and quiet wind turbines.
  • Develop materials and designs that facilitate recycling and circulate supply chains.
  • Optimize power output, efficiency, and deployment for vertical axis turbines.
  • Refine methods for retaining power for low-speed winds.
  • Research the cumulative social, environmental, and climate impacts of the onshore wind industry.
  • Explore smart transmission and advanced grid management to address future connection bottlenecks.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Purchase high-integrity RECs, which track ownership of renewable energy generation.
  • Advocate for equitable sharing of revenue and taxes in areas that produce wind power.
  • Participate in public consultations and licensing hearings for wind projects.
  • Stay informed about wind development projects that impact your community and support them when possible.
  • Conduct research on the benefits and development of wind energy and share the information with your friends, family, and other networks.
  • Support the development of community wind cooperatives or shared ownership structures that allow local communities to directly benefit from onshore wind projects.
  • Participate in public awareness campaigns focused on onshore wind projects.
  • Advocate for favorable policies and incentives for onshore wind energy development, such as financing, preferential tax policies, guaranteed pricing methods, and quotas.
  • If your utility company offers transparent green pricing, which charges a premium to cover the extra cost of renewable energy, and if it fits your budget, opt into it.

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of overall effectiveness of onshore wind turbines: High

Onshore wind energy is inherently renewable and well established as an efficient and effective electricity source. Increasing availability of wind energy reduces the need for fossil fuel–derived energy sources such as coal and gas, leading to lower GHG emissions from the global electricity sector. Through reduced emissions, deploying onshore wind turbines also leads to climate and air quality benefits (Afridi et al., 2024; Millstein et al., 2024). Wind energy is widely adopted around the world, and in 2023 “the country weighted average turbine capacity ranged from 2.5 MW to 5.8 MW” across 133 countries (IRENA, 2024a).

Ongoing innovation is necessary for broader global adoption of onshore wind. Estimates of technical adoption potential depend on site characteristics and socioeconomic conditions (Jung & Schindler 2023; McKenna et al., 2022). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “at low to medium levels of wind electricity penetration (up to 20% of total electricity demand), the integration of wind energy generally poses no insurmountable technical barriers and is economically manageable” (Wiser et al., 2011). Potentially exploitable wind resources are 20–30 times higher than 2017 global electricity demand (Clarke et al., 2022).

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 8 reviews and meta-analyses, 29 original studies, 18 agency reports, and 4 articles reflecting current evidence from 133 countries. We prioritized global data, but some research primarily focuses on trends in the United States, Brazil, China, and Germany. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date

Deploy Distributed Solar PV

Sector
Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Shift Production
Image
Solar panels on house roof
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are small-scale solar PV systems – usually under 1 MW, and installed near the point of use, such as on homes, businesses, or local facilities – that generate electricity for on-site consumption or local grid supply. This solution reduces reliance on centralized fossil-fuel power, cutting GHG emissions and minimizing transmission losses. There are various configurations of distributed solar PV systems; our analysis includes residential systems on homes, commercial and industrial (C&I) systems on businesses or institutions, and mini-grid solar PV systems, which are often coupled with storage.

Extreme weather events
Income & work,Food security,Energy availability,Health
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Deploy Distributed Solar PV is a Highly Recommended climate solution.
Overview

An estimated 23% of GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis comes from electricity generation annually (Clarke et al., 2022). In 2022, more than 60% of global electricity generation came from fossil fuel–based energy sources (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2024a). Since solar is a clean and renewable resource, distributed solar PV does not contribute to GHG emissions or air pollution while generating electricity. Deploy Distributed Solar PV reduces the need for electricity generation from fossil fuels, which reduces emissions of CO₂ as well as smaller amounts of methane and nitrous oxide. 

Distributed solar PV systems are decentralized energy systems that generate electricity from sunlight at or near the point of use. These systems are commonly installed on residential, commercial, and institutional rooftops, converting solar radiation directly into usable electricity through PV cells. These cells are grouped into modules, which in turn form panels and arrays (U.S. Department of Energy [DOE], n.d.) that deliver electricity to consumers (Figure 1). Their modular nature allows flexible system sizing, making distributed solar PV well-suited to varying energy demands, rooftop space, and financial capacity. Distributed solar PV systems are typically installed and operated by homeowners, businesses, municipalities, and third-party service providers. 

Figure 1. Distributed solar PV systems are commonly installed on residential, commercial, and institutional rooftops, converting solar radiation directly into usable electricity. Photovoltaic cells are grouped into modules, which in turn form panels and arrays that deliver electricity to consumers for on-site use. In some cases, excess generation can be exported to the grid. Modified from Engineering Discoveries (n.d.).

Diagram showing solar photovoltaic on a grid system

Source: Engineering Discoveries. (n.d.). Solar power plant main components, working, advantages and disadvantages.

The primary climate benefit of distributed solar PV is the reduction of CO₂ emissions. By generating zero-emissions electricity on-site, these systems displace electricity that would otherwise be supplied by fossil fuel–based grid power and reduce demand on electricity transmission from power plants to consumers. In doing so, distributed solar PV also avoids upstream emissions of methane and nitrous oxide associated with the extraction, transportation, and combustion of fossil fuels.

A significant number of distributed solar PV systems supply electricity directly to the buildings where they are installed, which offsets grid demand and lowers electricity bills for PV owners. In some cases, excess generation can be exported to the grid, contributing to the broader renewable electricity mix and reducing peak loads and system cost (Rahdan et al., 2024). Distributed solar PV systems therefore provide both emissions reductions and grid benefits (Tran et al., 2023; Uzum et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2025). 

Although distributed solar PV systems typically have lower capacity factors than utility-scale solar systems, they require less land, avoid transmission losses, and enable clean electricity access in urban, peri-urban, and rural areas. Implementation is primarily led by households, small businesses, public entities, and local developers. Governments and utilities often provide incentives such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, or tax credits to stimulate deployment. Continued cost declines – especially in balance-of-system (BoS) and soft costs like labor and permitting – are expected to increase adoption. Distributed solar PV offers a scalable, low-carbon electricity solution that supports both climate mitigation and energy equity.

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Michael Dioha, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Megan Matthews Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Al-Amin Bugaje, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Based on IEA World Energy Balances, global emissions from electricity generation accounted for an estimated 530 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh (540 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh, 20-yr basis; IEA, 2024a; see Methodology: Appendix A for calculation details). To convert from MWh to MW, we used the median global average capacity factor for distributed solar PV of 14% (Jacobson et al., 2017). Distributed solar PV is estimated to reduce emissions by 650 t CO₂‑eq /MW/yr (660 t CO₂‑eq /MW/yr, 20-yr basis; Table 1).

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /MW installed capacity/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 650
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We assumed that newly installed distributed solar PV displaces an equivalent MWh of the global electricity grid mix. We then assumed the reduction in emissions from additional distributed solar PV capacity was equal to emissions (per MWh) from the 2023 global electricity grid mix (IEA, 2024a). Since new distributed solar PV does not displace an equivalent MWh of the global grid mix, actual avoided emissions will depend on conditions of the local grid at a particular time and place, including the level of solar already deployed, regional solar radiation, and grid carbon intensity. As a result, our global effectiveness estimate may differ significantly from regional estimates. Studies in the United States show that for 2007–2015, avoided emissions from solar were approximately 0.5 t CO₂ /MWh (613 t CO₂ /MW/yr; Millstein et al., 2017), and a 15% increase in deployment avoided 8.54 Mt CO₂ /yr (Biswas et al., 2025). For regions that rely heavily on fossil-fuel generators for electricity generation, widespread adoption of distributed solar PV could cut emissions much more than estimated here (Sustainable Energy for All, 2024). 

Distributed solar PV systems have no operational emissions and low life-cycle GHG footprints. We excluded carbon payback time and embodied life-cycle emissions from manufacturing, transport, installation, and end-of-life processing in our estimates of effectiveness and climate impacts. Life-cycle emissions of rooftop solar PV systems were 25.5–42.9 g CO₂‑eq /kWh, depending on the module technology used (IEA-PVPS, 2022). This is significantly lower than fossil fuel–based electricity generation, which can exceed 1,000 g CO₂‑eq /kWh (Gibon et al., 2021).

Cost

We estimated a mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for distributed solar PV of US$145/MWh based on two key industry reports (International Renewable Energy Agency [IRENA], 2020; IEA & NEA, 2020; see Methodology: Appendix A for details). LCOE values represent the average cost of producing one MWh of electricity over the operational lifetime of a power plant, allowing investors to compare their expected revenue to a standard set of costs. International agencies have used this cost metric to estimate total costs of power generation technologies, incorporating installed capital costs, operation and maintenance, project lifespan, and energy output.

While distributed solar PV generally carries a higher cost per MWh than utility-scale solar (IRENA, 2020), rapid declines in cost have been observed across rooftop and mini-grid markets. Residential rooftop PV systems, for instance, saw their average LCOE drop from US$0.301/kWh (US$301/MWh) in 2010 to US$0.063/kWh (US$63/MWh) in 2019 – a 79% reduction driven by falling module prices, better installation methods, and policy support (IRENA, 2020). Similarly, commercial-scale rooftop PV (≤500 kW) achieved its lowest country-level LCOEs – of US$0.062/kWh (US$62/MWh) in India, and US$0.064/kWh (US$64/MWh) in China – during the same period (IRENA, 2020).

Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Distributed solar PV exhibits a pronounced learning curve, most clearly reflected in the steady decline of solar module prices as global deployment expands. The median learning rate for PV modules is estimated at 34%, meaning module prices fall by roughly one-third with every doubling of installed capacity (Table 2). Significant economies of scale over the past decade have driven an even steeper learning rate of 42% (Masson et al., 2024). Similarly, a historical assessment (Philipps & Warmuth, 2025) found that module prices have decreased by 25.7% per doubling over the past 44 years, reinforcing the scale-driven cost reduction dynamics in the distributed solar market. Our estimated learning rate is based on trends of the past decade, while a longer historical estimate would reveal lower learning rates.

Table 2. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of the installed solution base, 2010–2023.

Unit: %

25th percentile 30
Mean 34
Median (50th percentile) 34
75th percentile 38
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Looking forward, the pace of module cost decline is expected to slow somewhat. According to the DNV 2024 Energy Transition Outlook (DNV, 2024), the current global learning rate for module costs is about 26%, but projections suggest this rate will slow to around 17% by 2050 as cost components stabilize and the largest gains from scaling are realized. 

In addition to modules, distributed solar PV costs are significantly influenced by BoS components, which include inverters, racking, labor, permitting, and customer acquisition. While these costs are more localized and less exposed to global manufacturing dynamics, they have also followed a learning trajectory. Elshurafa et al. (2018) analyzed BoS costs across more than 20 countries and found a global learning curve of 89%, corresponding to a BoS learning rate of 11%. This is lower than the module rate but nonetheless meaningful – especially in markets where soft costs dominate. 

In the United States, residential distributed solar PV system costs fell 76% between 2010 and 2024, while commercial rooftop PV system costs declined 84% during the same period (Ramasamy et al., 2025). These reductions reflect improvements in module efficiency, digital tools for system design and sales, streamlined installation, and, in some regions, lower permitting and inspection costs.

Still, challenges remain. In mature distributed markets such as the United States, costs other than hardware – such as labor, permitting, interconnection fees, and customer acquisition – continue to account for the majority of overall system prices (Barbose et al., 2023; Dong et al., 2023). 

Speed of Action

The term speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is separate from the speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, and delayed.

Deploy Distributed Solar PV is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. As installed capacity of distributed solar PV increases over time, emissions from electricity generation are expected to decrease, assuming solar and other renewables displace fossil fuel sources.

Caveats

One limitation is our assumption that each additional MWh from distributed solar PV displaces an equivalent MWh from the grid. In practice, without net metering or export compensation, generation from distributed systems may not be fully recognized or integrated into the grid – meaning those MWh might not contribute to net electricity flows or emissions displacement. In such cases, any solar output not exported to the grid cannot contribute to grid-level emissions benefits. Owners of distributed solar PV systems are eligible to claim renewable energy certificates (RECs), but if they don’t do so, their utility may instead claim the RECs on their behalf without reducing emissions from their electricity generation. While RECs are used most widely in the United States, this additionality concern could impact any international energy market that also has tradable renewable energy certificates (NREL, 2015). 

Our definition of distributed solar PV includes both rooftop systems and mini-grids, many of which are coupled with battery storage. However, our aggregated analysis does not fully differentiate between these diverse configurations, nor does it account for their varying operational patterns, grid interactions, or backup roles. These differences are important but difficult to capture within the scope of this analysis. Consequently, the results presented should be interpreted as a high-level approximation rather than a detailed assessment of all distributed solar PV system types.

Distributed solar PV implementation comes with several limitations and uncertainties. One concern is whether new installations meaningfully reduce emissions. In regions where the electricity grid is already low-carbon or underused, adding distributed solar may have limited climate impact.

The long-term impact of distributed solar also depends on system reliability, maintenance, and policy stability. Poorly maintained systems may underperform and sudden policy changes – such as the removal of net metering or the elimination of tax credits – can reduce uptake (Gautier & Jacqmin, 2020; Leite et al., 2024; Venkatachalam et al., 2025). In many low-income regions specifically, high up-front costs, limited access to financing, and insufficient technical capacity can hinder large-scale adoption (Ukoba et al., 2024). Even when demand exists in these regions, supply chain limitations, lack of skilled labor, and inconsistent regulatory frameworks may slow progress.

Technical challenges also arise with increasing deployment. Variability in distributed solar PV generation can lead to voltage instability in distribution networks (Cook et al., 2018; Impram et al., 2020; Tamimi et al., 2013), especially when systems are not paired with smart inverters or batteries. Although emissions from manufacturing and disposal of solar PV panels are relatively lower than those from fossil fuel power, they are not zero. Another technical caveat is the growing concern of e-waste, particularly for off-grid and rural PV deployments. A recent prospective material flow analysis across 15 West African countries estimates that cumulative PV waste could reach 2.3 to 7.8 Mt by 2050, with about 70% originating from off-grid systems (Dong et al., 2025).

Current Adoption

We estimated current adoption of distributed solar PV based on IEA reports (IEA, 2023; Masson et al., 2024). As of 2023, the global installed capacity for distributed solar PV reached approximately 708,000 MW (Table 3). Although we used 2023 as our baseline for current adoption, an estimated additional 182,000 MW of distributed solar PV capacity was installed in 2024 – bringing the global total to more than 890,000 MW (IEA, 2023).

Table 3. Current adoption level, 2023.

Unit: MW installed capacity

25th percentile 702,000
Mean 708,000
Median (50th percentile) 708,000
75th percentile 715,000
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From 2011–2016, the global distributed solar PV market remained relatively stable, with annual installations ranging between 16 and 19 GW (Masson et al., 2024). This trend shifted significantly when China expanded its domestic distributed solar PV sector, implementing policy and infrastructure measures that nearly doubled market capacity between 2016 and 2018. By 2023, global distributed solar PV installations had reached 189.0 GW annually – up from 177.7 GW of new capacity added in 2022 (Masson et al., 2024). In recent years, many countries, particularly in Europe, have adopted collective and distributed self-consumption models as a new framework for residential and commercial electricity customers. This approach increases access to self-generated renewable electricity, even for consumers unable to install their own PV systems. 

Off-grid solar PV applications are expanding too, primarily driven by rural electrification efforts across Asia, Africa, and parts of South America (World Bank Group, 2024). In many remote areas, especially in Africa and Asia, off-grid and mini-grid systems with storage serve as viable alternatives to grid extension or as interim solutions before future grid connections. For further details, see the Geographic Guidance section.

Adoption Trend

Based on the IEA’s solar PV power capacity in the Net Zero Scenario (IEA, 2023), we calculated the global adoption trend by summing global adoption for each year 2015–2023 and taking the year-to-year difference. Comparing year-to-year global adoption, the median global adoption trend was adding 54,000 MW/yr of installed capacity, but expansion was unevenly distributed geographically (Table 4, Figure 2).

Figure 2. Global adoption of distributed solar PV, 2015–2023.

Source: International Energy Agency. (2023). Solar PV power capacity in the Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030. License: CC BY 4.0

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Table 4. Adoption trend, 2015–2023.

Unit: MW installed capacity/yr

25th percentile 40,300
Mean 72,400
Median (50th percentile) 54,000
75th percentile 80,800
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Global distributed solar PV deployment more than sextupled between 2015 and 2023, growing from 116 GW to 695 GW of installed capacity (Figure 2; IEA, 2023). Growth in the mid-2010s was relatively moderate, with yearly additions rising gradually from 19 GW in 2016 to 45 GW by 2019. However, a notable acceleration began after 2020. Annual capacity additions jumped from 63 GW in 2020 to 192 GW in 2023 – more than tripling in just three years (IEA, 2023). This surge reflects growing policy support, cost declines, and higher demand for behind-the-meter solar solutions. The rolling trendline since 2015 now averages 72 GW/yr, nearly double the average before 2020. This trend is likely to continue as distributed solar PV continues to gain ground in both developed and emerging markets.

Adoption Ceiling

For this analysis, we adopt a global median estimate of 17.4 million MW installed capacity as the adoption ceiling for distributed solar PV (Table 5). The adoption ceiling for distributed solar PV is determined by the global technical potential of rooftop surfaces, parking structures, and other built environments suitable for solar PV deployment. Unlike utility-scale systems that require dedicated land, distributed solar PV leverages existing infrastructure – primarily the rooftops of residential, commercial, and government buildings.

Estimates of the technical potential for distributed solar PV vary considerably across the literature, reflecting differences in study period, system types included, and methodological approaches. Despite these variations, recent global assessments converge on the view that rooftop and other distributed solar PV systems offer substantial potential, though they are constrained by surface area availability and system efficiencies. A meta-analysis by de La Beaumelle et al. (2023) reported rooftop solar PV technical potential ranging from 6 PWh/yr to 69 PWh/yr, with a median of 15.8 PWh/yr and an average of 21.1 PWh/yr (de La Beaumelle et al., 2023). Another study estimated the global net energy potential from rooftop PV at 7.81 PWh/yr for residential rooftops and 8.02 PWh/yr for commercial rooftops. Similarly, Deng et al. (2015) estimated the global technical potential of rooftop PV systems at 33.6 PWh/yr, with an additional 25 PWh/yr from building facades (Deng et al., 2015), while Joshi et al. (2021) identified approximately 0.2 million km2 of suitable rooftop area from 130 million km2 of global land surface, corresponding to an estimated electricity generation potential of 27 PWh/yr (Joshi et al., 2021).

Key constraints to distributed solar PV adoption include rooftop suitability (such as shading, tilt, and orientation), grid integration, permitting hurdles, and up-front costs (Sengupta et al., 2024; Masson et al., 2025). While these barriers may limit near-term deployment, innovations like building-integrated photovoltaics, virtual net metering, and smart inverters offer pathways to expand deployment.

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption.

Unit: MW installed capacity

25th percentile 12,400,000
Mean 23,400,000
Median (50th percentile) 17,400,000
75th percentile 28,500,000
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Achievable Adoption

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024 presented several scenarios that explored future energy pathways under different assumptions about policies, technologies, and markets (IEA, 2024b). For this analysis, we defined the adoption achievable range for distributed solar PV based on the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) (IEA, 2024b). However, the WEO does not explicitly distinguish between distributed and utility-scale solar PV in its projections. To bridge this gap, we conducted a simple linear projection using historical deployment trends to estimate the likely share of distributed solar PV within total solar PV capacity. Our analysis suggests that by 2050, distributed solar PV could represent approximately 26% of all solar PV deployment. This finding is consistent with IRENA’s REmap analysis, which projects that utility-scale systems will account for 60–80% of global solar PV capacity by mid-century (IRENA, 2019). Accordingly, for our study we assume that 26% of the IEA’s projected solar PV deployment in 2050 will come from distributed solar PV systems. This provides a reasonable basis for estimating achievable adoption, while aligning with both historical patterns and complementary international assessments.

Achievable – Low

The low achievable adoption level is based on STEPS, which reflects the current trajectory of distributed solar PV expansion under existing and announced policies. In this scenario, assuming distributed solar PV projects account for 26% of total solar PV capacity, global capacity is projected to grow about sixfold, from 708,000 MW in 2023 to approximately 4.30 million MW by 2050 (Table 6). This corresponds to an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3%.

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

 Unit: MW installed capacity

Current adoption 708,000
Achievable – low 4,300,000
Achievable – high 5,300,000
Adoption Ceiling 17,400,000
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Achievable – High

The high achievable adoption level is based on APS, which assumes the same policy framework as STEPS, plus full realization of announced national energy and climate targets, including net-zero commitments supported by stronger clean energy investments. Under this scenario, distributed solar PV capacity is projected to increase approximately sevenfold from 708,000 MW in 2023 to approximately 5.30 million MW by 2050 (Table 6), requiring a CAGR of 8% over the same period.

Using our adoption ceiling of 17.4 million MW, the current adoption of distributed solar PV constitutes approximately 4.1% of its technical potential. The achievable adoption range, as calculated, is 24.8–30.3% of this potential.

Based on baseline global adoption and effectiveness, we estimated the current total climate impact of distributed solar PV to be approximately 0.46 Gt CO₂‑eq (0.47 Gt CO₂‑eq , 20-yr basis) of reduced emissions per year (Table 7). We estimated future climate impacts using the emissions from the 2023 baseline electricity grid; actual emissions reductions could differ depending on how the emissions intensity of electricity generation changes over time. 

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.46
Achievable – low 2.8
Achievable – high 3.5
Adoption Ceiling 11
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Climate impacts are highly uncertain. They will vary depending on actual emissions intensity, as well as future development of electricity grids, markets and policies, and enabling technologies, like batteries. As solar and other renewables grow to represent an increasingly high percentage of power generation sources, grid emissions are expected to decrease (DNV, 2024; IEA, 2024b), so the climate impacts presented here are likely overestimates. Additionally, in regions with significant solar radiation where utility-scale solar PV is competitive, increased adoption of distributed solar PV could displace utility-scale PV without reducing emissions (Bistline & Watten, 2025). Assuming the existing and announced policies of countries around the world for distributed solar PV installation are backed with adequate provisions for implementation, global adoption could reach 4 million MW by 2050 – resulting in an increased emissions reduction of approximately 2.8 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (2.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 20-yr basis). Assuming full realization of all national energy and climate targets (including net-zero commitments) with the support of stronger clean energy investments, distributed solar PV adoption could reach 5 million MW by 2050, which would lead to an estimated 3.5 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (3.5 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 20-yr basis) of reduced emissions. 

We based the adoption ceiling solely on the technical potential of distributed solar PV, while neglecting social and economic constraints and realistic scenarios of future power demand (Dioha et al., 2025). Distributed solar PV installed capacity is unlikely to reach 17 million MW, but if current grid emissions remained constant while capacity increased, GHG emission reductions would be approximately 11 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (11 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 20-yr basis). This maximum is unrealistic as a forward-looking climate impact because it treats grid carbon intensity as permanently fixed at 2023 levels and ignores future decarbonization and corresponding decreases in marginal avoided emissions.

Additional Benefits

Extreme Weather Events

Rooftop PV systems and mini-grids have the potential to supply electricity when the grid is unstable, improving resilience during or after extreme weather events (Galvan et al., 2020; NREL, 2014).

Income and Work

Solar PV can have a positive effect on the economy because it accounts for 44% of renewable energy jobs globally and is the fastest-growing sector of renewable energy employment (IRENA, 2024). In the United States as of 2021, solar PV employed about 250,000 full-time workers, mainly in the installation, project development, and manufacturing sectors (Gadzanku et al., 2023). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) projected that about 509,000–757,000 jobs for both utility- and distributed-scale solar PV will be added by 2030 in the United States (Truitt et al., 2022).

Factors such as local policies that allow for net metering, tax credits, weather, and the price of electricity can determine individual cost benefits and payback periods of distributed solar (Sexton et al., 2018; Vaishnav et al., 2017). After the initial investment, consumers see savings in their monthly electricity bills (NREL, 2018).

Distributed solar PV can provide access to electricity in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (Kumar et al., 2019). Enhanced access to electricity in these countries can foster economic development of agricultural communities and increase farmer incomes (Candelise et al., 2021; Saha, 2025).

Food Security

Improved electricity access through distributed solar PV can also enhance food production and ensure resilience of agricultural systems in low- and middle-income countries (Ukoba et al., 2024). Improved electricity access strengthens food security by providing refrigeration for perishable food, ensuring higher food quality, and reducing food loss (Candelise et al., 2021; Ukoba et al., 2024).

Energy Availability

Distributed solar PV can provide electricity to households and communities where expanding grid electricity would prove too expensive or physically inaccessible (Kannan & Vakeesan, 2016; Kumar et al., 2019; Maka & Alabid, 2022). Using distributed mini-grids as a source of electricity is especially applicable to low- and middle-income countries with abundant solar resources (Maka & Alabid, 2022). For example, distributed rooftop solar has been an important source of electricity access in Bangladesh, where rooftop PV systems provide electricity to about 12% of the population (Kumar et al., 2019).

Health

Improvements in air quality offer health benefits from reduced air pollution exposure, including reduced premature mortality. The magnitude and distribution of these benefits depend on the local electricity grid mix, the fuels used to generate electricity, and atmospheric conditions that determine how far pollutants travel from emission sources (Buonocore et al., 2019). Regions with a higher proportion of coal-powered electricity generation will often see more health benefits (Buonocore et al., 2019). These health benefits often translate into cost savings associated with reductions in hospital admissions, improved respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, and work and school days that might have otherwise been missed due to illness (Millstein et al., 2017; Wiser et al., 2016). A study of the health benefits of distributed solar PV in eastern China found that reductions in air pollution were linked to a 1.2% decrease in air pollution–related premature mortality (Yang et al., 2018). Distributed solar PV can provide electricity to power electric cookstoves, which can reduce morbidities linked to poor indoor air quality (Jhunjhunwala & Kaur, 2018).

Increasing energy availability through distributed solar PV has important implications for health-care delivery in rural communities in low- and middle-income countries. By providing electricity access to health clinics located in hard-to-reach areas, mini-grid or rooftop PV systems can improve health services (Maka & Alabid, 2022; Soto et al., 2022; Ukoba et al., 2024). Electricity is essential for health-care services such as lighting during procedures, refrigeration of vaccines, sterilization of devices, and medical imaging, which can impact infection rates, neonatal mortality, and surgical outcomes (Soto et al., 2022). PV systems can deliver stable electricity to health clinics in low- and middle-income countries, which often experience power outages due to grid instability or natural disasters (Soto et al., 2022). 

Air Quality

Solar PV reduces air pollutants released from fossil-fuel energy generation, thereby avoiding the emission of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5 associated with burning coal and natural gas (Abel et al., 2018; Millstein et al., 2024; Millstein et al., 2017; Wiser et al., 2016). The amount and type of air pollutants avoided will vary regionally depending on the fossil fuel type that PV displaces (Gallagher & Holloway, 2020). For example, since coal has different emissions than gas, regions with higher levels of coal-powered electricity will experience different air quality benefits than regions with more gas-powered electricity (Millstein et al., 2017). Pollutants can be transported for long distances depending on meteorological conditions, so air pollution benefits can be widespread (Millstein et al., 2024).

Risks

A significant risk of implementing distributed solar PV involves changes or instability in policy, especially pertaining to compensation schemes such as net metering and feed‑in tariffs. The economic viability of rooftop solar systems often hinges on favorable tariff or compensation rules; when these policies are reduced or withdrawn, investment returns drop markedly. For example, a 2018 report from IEA‑PVPS shows that many emerging economies have laws enabling net metering, but suffer from delays in implementation or weak compensation levels, which limit residential uptake of rooftop PV systems under self‑consumption policies (Roux & Shanker, 2018).

Another risk is the structure of electricity rates and fixed charges. A study of the impact of fixed charges on the viability of self‑consumption found that high fixed or volumetric charges in retail tariffs can dramatically reduce the financial benefit of self‑consumed PV generation, particularly when surplus PV electricity exported to the grid receives little or no compensation (Solano et al., 2018). These risks combine to lower the real output and emissions reduction potential of distributed PV. When policies incentivize self-consumption rather than exporting electricity to the grid, a greater proportion of the PV-generated electricity is used; however, policies that reduce the financial benefit of PV generation can stymie adoption.

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Increased availability of renewable energy from distributed solar PV helps reduce emissions from the electricity grid as a whole. Reduced emissions from the electricity grid leads to lower downstream emissions for solutions that rely on electricity use from the grid. Deploying distributed solar PV also supports increased integration of offshore and onshore wind turbines by diversifying the renewable energy mix, and can alleviate reliability challenges associated with variability in wind alone. Increasing deployment of variable renewable sources like solar PV can also drive procurement of firm baseload power in the form of geothermal and hydropower sources.

Electrification of transportation will be more beneficial in reducing global emissions if the underlying electricity generation mix includes a higher proportion of non-emitting power sources. 

Competing

Distributed solar PV can compete with utility-scale solar PV, agrivoltaics, and wind energy for policy attention, subsidies, and grid access. Additionally, when many distributed solar PV systems are installed, they generate power during the day when the sun is shining. This can lower electricity prices at those times because solar power is cheap to produce. As a result, utility-scale solar PV and agrivoltaic power plants can earn less money from selling electricity.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

MW installed capacity

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
650
units
Current 708,000 04.3×10⁶5.3×10⁶
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.46 2.83.5
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

Implementing distributed solar PV involves several trade-offs. Embodied emissions from module manufacturing, transport, installation, and decommissioning are estimated at 10–36 g CO₂‑eq /kWh or approximately 2–8% of typical grid electricity emissions (~530 g CO₂‑eq /kWh), which implies over 90% net savings per kWh generated (Schlömer et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2024). Manufacturing using coal-intensive grids increases embodied emissions, highlighting the necessity of decarbonizing supply chains (Gan et al., 2023; Pehl et al., 2017). These emissions could reduce the net climate benefit, especially when displacing grid electricity from other renewables. 

The temporal variability of solar energy also creates trade-offs. When demand peaks in evening hours, non-solar energy sources ramp up generation, which could lead to increases in marginal emissions (Gagnon & O’Shaughnessy, 2024). In regions with high solar deployment, increased adoption of distributed solar PV could displace utility-scale solar generation, since both operate diurnally, resulting in no net reduction in grid emissions (Bistline & Watten, 2025). However, adoption of distributed solar can be very beneficial in low- and middle-income countries, as well as in places where utility-scale projects face interconnection constraints, permitting issues, or other challenges that limit adoption (Zhang et al., 2025). 

Another trade-off arises when limited rooftop space is used for PV infrastructure instead of alternative uses, such as cool or green roofs, or cooling/HVAC systems, which could offer thermal insulation or carbon sequestration benefits (Cubi et al., 2016; Kazemian & Xiang, 2025). 

Action Word
Deploy
Solution Title
Distributed Solar PV
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set ambitious long-term renewable energy goals and incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements; design national electrification guidelines for technicians to enable renewable energy goals.
  • Ensure regulatory frameworks around solar are strong and enforced, while also being accessible and timely; coordinate solar power policies horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); seek to align social and environmental safeguards and streamline permitting processes.
  • Streamline regulations such as permitting for renewable energy projects, including both distributed solar and mini-grids; standardize documents for regular engagements, such as templates for power purchase agreements.
  • Provide incentives to consumers, such as subsidies (especially to reduce up-front cost), feed-in tariffs, tax credits, grants, waived grid connection fees, and forgivable or concessional loans; simultaneously allow for grid injections and net-metering schemes; ensure policies and incentives are long term and will remain stable for at least five years; use similar financial incentives for supporting equipment manufacturers, such as those that produce batteries and inverters.
  • Offer incentives such as subsidies and tax credits to manufacturers, operators, developers, and other relevant actors; as the market matures and becomes competitive, gradually reduce these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Develop building codes and regulations to incentivize efficiency and self-consumption of PV-generated electricity, especially among new construction; require PV-ready buildings and infrastructure.
  • Implement carbon taxes and remove subsidies from fossil-fuel infrastructure; redirect those funds into renewable energy financing.
  • Implement or strengthen renewable portfolio standards, clean energy standards, or other similar policy mechanisms with carve-outs for distributed solar.
  • Consider using green bonds to finance mini-grids and/or de-risk markets.
  • Invest in and subsidize improvements to grid integration and flexibility, storage, and infrastructure to manage variable generation; deploy smart-grid technologies.
  • Work with industry to diversify supply chains; design incentives and policies to stimulate local or regional production and advance R&D for solar and related equipment such as batteries.
  • Earmark a percentage of financial incentives for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries; if relevant, provide technology transfers and capacity building in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Improve labor- and human-rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains; enforce standards within industry – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals and panel manufacturing.
  • Ensure regulations allow for a variety of development models, such as build-own-operate, public-private partnerships, utility models, energy communities, and cooperatives.
  • Ensure strong quality control requirements for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service; create certification programs for each stage of the process.
  • Require or encourage manufacturers to provide minimum warranties; establish an independent grievance system to resolve customer disputes and help foster trust in the industry.
  • To the extent possible, regulate and standardize distributed panel components with the aim of facilitating self-installation and ensuring safety. 
  • Work with the private sector to develop workforce training programs; ensure capacity development for all stages of deployment, including end-of-life services; create certifications for the full spectrum of roles.
  • Ensure strong regulations are in place for end-of-life services; enact Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for manufacturers; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, and recycled panels.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate industry and the public on regulations, benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is both appropriate and sufficient for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Conduct careful planning for installation, ensuring that panel tilt, maintenance, and shading are evaluated based on local climatic conditions and are accounted for properly.
  • Conduct regular maintenance and cleaning to enhance cost efficiency and energy savings, especially in arid climates.
  • Utilize geospatial and satellite data to gather information on landscape, market dynamics, and initial customer base.
  • When cost-effective, employ building-integrated photovoltaics, net metering/billing, batteries, and smart inverters.
  • Utilize pay-as-you-go, energy-as-a-service, and other financial models that offset high up-front costs for residential and off-grid customers.
  • Take advantage of government incentives such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts for difference; as the market matures and becomes competitive, seek to gradually reduce reliance on these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Offer periodic site visits and maintenance services; facilitate reselling of PV systems on the secondhand market.
  • Design distributed solar PV and mini-grid systems to be compatible with the main grid, even in areas far from the main grid, so as to allow for future connection. 
  • Consider providing feed-in tariffs or other financial incentives if they are not provided by the government; consider lease-to-own models.
  • Investigate using green bonds to finance public projects and mini-grids, or to de-risk markets.
  • Work with regulators and other industry leaders to standardize distributed panel components with the aim of facilitating self-installation and ensuring safety. 
  • Invest in strengthening grid integration and improving flexibility through expanded energy storage, upgraded infrastructure, and deployment of smart grid technologies to effectively manage variable renewable generation.
  • Reduce soft costs of customer acquisition with prediction models that use machine learning classifiers like XGBoost, which are trained on widely available socioeconomic data to identify households likely to adopt PV.
  • When developing mini-grids, work directly with the community as well as nonprofits and relevant businesses (such as appliance retailers) to help educate the community on the mini-grid’s capabilities and how to choose suitable appliances.
  • Work with the public sector to diversify supply chains; take advantage of incentives and policies that stimulate local or regional production and advance R&D.
  • Ensure supply chains comply with international labor and human rights laws and standards, particularly for the extraction of critical minerals, and panel manufacturing.
  • Seek to decarbonize the full life cycle – including supply chains, production, installation, recycling, and disposal – as much as possible.
  • Ensure strong quality control for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service.
  • Work with the public sector and private organizations to develop workforce training programs; ensure capacity development for all stages of deployment, including end-of-life services.
  • Adhere to regulations regarding end-of-life servicing; adopt extended producer responsibility and high-integrity end-of-life servicing standards if no policy framework exists.
  • Invest directly into, and help develop, recycling infrastructure for solar panels.
  • Participate in voluntary agreements with government bodies to increase policy support for solar capacity and power generation.
  • Stay abreast of, and engage with, changing policies, regulations, zoning laws, tax incentives, and related developments to help remove commercial barriers.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to deployment, technology transfers, education, de-risking markets, and other relevant areas.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Set ambitious long-term renewable energy goals and incorporate them into corporate net-zero strategies.
  • Install distributed solar panels when possible, focusing on available rooftops and parking lots.
  • Support long-term, stable contracts (e.g., Purchase Power Agreements) that de-risk investment in solar technologies and incentivize local supply chain development.
  • Take advantage of government incentives such as tax credits, if possible; seek to gradually reduce reliance on these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Invest in companies that produce, deploy, or provide end-of-life servicing for solar panels; seek to diversify and localize supply chains.
  • Invest in R&D and related technology, such as batteries.
  • Support workforce development programs, offer employee scholarships, and/or sponsor training for careers in solar power; ensure capacity development for all stages of deployment, including end-of-life services.
  • Offer pro bono business advice or general support for community solar projects, such as community-shared and cooperative business models.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to deployment, technology transfers, education, de-risking markets, and other relevant areas.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Install distributed solar panels when possible, focusing on available rooftops and parking lots.
  • Advocate for ambitious long-term national goals on solar and renewable energy; advocate to incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements; request national electrification guidelines for technicians.
  • Operate or help with equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of solar PVs, forecasting, and related technologies.
  • Work with industry and government officials to help develop regulations and standards for distributed panel components, with the aim of facilitating self-installation and ensuring safety. 
  • Advocate for strong regulatory frameworks that are also accessible and timely; recommend coordinated solar power policies, both horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); help align social and environmental safeguards and a streamlined permitting processes.
  • Call for government incentives for consumers such as subsidies (especially to reduce up-front cost), feed-in tariffs, tax credits, grants, waived grid connection fees, and forgivable or concessional loans; help ensure regulations allow for grid injections and net-metering schemes; advocate for long-term policies and incentives that will remain stable for at least five years; call for similar financial incentives for supporting equipment manufacturers, such as those that produce batteries and inverters.
  • Urge governments to provide incentives – such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts for difference – to manufacturers, operators, developers, and other relevant actors; recommend gradual reductions of these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Campaign for public investments in improvements to grid integration and flexibility, storage, and infrastructure to manage variable generation.
  • Call for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Help improve enforcement of labor and human rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals.
  • Help create or support community solar projects using a variety of models, such as build-own-operate, public-private partnerships, utility models, energy communities, and cooperatives.
  • Create resources and/or standards to improve quality control for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service; create and/or administer certification programs for each stage of the process.
  • Work with the public and private sectors to develop workforce training programs; ensure capacity development for all stages of deployment, including end-of-life services.
  • Urge governments and industry to adopt strong regulations for end-of-life services; call for extended producer responsibility; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, or recycled panels.
  • Advocate for carbon taxes and the removal of subsidies from fossil-fuel infrastructure; recommend those funds be redirected into renewable energy.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to deployment, technology transfers, education, de-risking markets, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate industry and the public on regulations, benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Investors
  • Offer low-interest loans and concessional financing for manufacturers, customers, developers, operators, and recyclers.
  • Invest directly in the development of mini-grid projects.
  • Invest in companies that produce, deploy, or provide end-of-life servicing for solar panels; seek to diversify and localize supply chains.
  • Invest in supporting infrastructures such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Invest in green bonds and/or explore blended finance structures to mobilize capital for companies developing solar energy or supporting infrastructure.
  • Invest in the recycling infrastructure for solar panels and circular supply chains.
  • Invest in R&D, component technology, and related equipment, such as batteries.
  • Help de-risk energy transitions in low- and middle-income countries by offering low-interest loans, concessional financing, and/or, favorable terms.
  • Align investments with existing public-private partnerships, voluntary agreements, or voluntary guidance that may apply in the location of the investment.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Provide catalytic financing for or help develop, distributed solar PV projects and mini-grids.
  • Award grants to enhance grid integration, flexibility, and reliability by supporting innovations in energy storage systems, advanced grid management, transmission infrastructure, and traditional infrastructure (such as access roads) that enable effective integration of solar PV generation.
  • Work with other philanthropies, investors, and implementers to develop standardized reporting mechanisms and create monitoring and evaluation frameworks.
  • Allow for extended program timelines to allow for mini-grid sector development and cost recovery. 
  • Support the development of component technology and related equipment, such as batteries.
  • Award grants to improve recycling infrastructure for solar panels, and build circular supply chains.
  • Facilitate partnerships to share solar technology and best practices between established and emerging markets, promoting energy equity and access.
  • Foster cooperation and technology transfer between low- and middle-income countries with emerging solar sectors.
  • Advocate for ambitious long-term national goals on solar and renewable energy; advocate to incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements; request national electrification guidelines for technicians.
  • Operate, fund, or support equipment testing and certification systems, and market information disclosures.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of solar PVs, forecasting, and related technologies.
  • Work with industry and government officials to help develop regulations and standards for distributed panel components, with the aim of facilitating self-installation and ensuring safety. 
  • Advocate for strong regulatory frameworks that are also accessible and timely; recommend coordinated solar power policies, both horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); help align social and environmental safeguards and a streamlined permitting processes.
  • Advocate for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Help improve enforcement of labor and human-rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals.
  • Help create or support community solar projects using a variety of models, such as build-own-operate, public-private partnerships, utility models, energy communities, and cooperatives.
  • Create resources and/or standards to improve quality control for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service; create and/or administer certification programs for each stage of the process.
  • Work with the public and private sectors to develop workforce training programs; ensure capacity development for all stages of deployment, including end-of-life services.
  • Urge governments and industry to adopt strong regulations for end-of-life services; call for extended producer responsibility; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, or recycled panels.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to deployment, technology transfers, education, de-risking markets, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate industry and the public on regulations, benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Install solar panels at home, at the office, and/or at other properties; share your experience and tips with neighbors and the broader community.
  • Advocate for ambitious long-term national goals on solar and renewable energy; advocate to incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements; request national electrification guidelines for technicians.
  • Operate or help with equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of solar PVs, forecasting, and related technologies.
  • Work with industry and government officials to help develop regulations and standards for distributed panel components, with the aim of facilitating self-installation and ensuring safety. 
  • Advocate for strong regulatory frameworks that are also accessible and timely; recommend coordinated solar power policies, both horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); help align social and environmental safeguards and a streamlined permitting processes.
  • Call for government incentives for consumers such as subsidies (especially to reduce up-front cost), feed-in tariffs, tax credits, grants, waived grid connection fees, and forgivable or concessional loans; help ensure regulations allow for grid injections and net-metering schemes; advocate for long-term policies and incentives that will remain stable for at least five years; call for similar financial incentives for supporting equipment manufacturers, such as those that produce batteries and inverters.
  • Urge governments to provide incentives – such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts for difference – to manufacturers, operators, developers, and other relevant actors; recommend gradual reductions of these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Campaign for public investments in improvements to grid integration and flexibility, storage, and infrastructure to manage variable generation.
  • Advocate for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Help improve enforcement of labor and human-rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals.
  • Help create or support community solar projects using a variety of models, such as build-own-operate, public-private partnerships, utility models, energy communities, and cooperatives.
  • Advocate for strong regulations for end-of-life services; advocate for extended producer responsibility; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, or recycled panels.
  • Advocate for carbon taxes and the removal of subsidies from fossil-fuel infrastructure; recommend those funds be redirected into renewable energy.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to deployment, technology transfers, education, de-risking markets, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate industry and the public on regulations, benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Continue advancing the performance of monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon cells.
  • Improve cooperation between building automation systems and monitoring and control of PV systems.
  • Investigate the ability of PV to assist in frequency regulation and other ancillary services to maintain grid stability as more renewables displace conventional power plants.
  • Develop a platform that provides up-to-date and publicly available data on mini-grid operations, related policies, technologies, standards, and other relevant information.
  • Advance energy-storage systems technologies, such as battery, hydrogen, and gravity-based.
  • Improve manufacturing efficiencies such as larger wafer formats, enhanced cell architectures, and advanced wafer-processing techniques.
  • Advance the use of AI or other technological means for predictive analytics, forecasting, and power system control.
  • Improve recycling infrastructure and scalable technologies to repair, reuse, or recover materials from solar panels.
  • Create more heat-tolerant PV technologies and systems to reduce heat exposure and/or absorption.
  • Create better protection and cleaning systems for PV to preserve functionality during extreme weather, and in extreme environments – especially deserts. 
  • Improve related mining technologies for critical minerals, making the extraction process safer, less disruptive to local communities and ecosystems, and less energy-intensive.
  • Develop ways of eliminating, reducing, reusing, and/or safely disposing of hazardous by-products of PV manufacturing.
  • Research factors that lead to community acceptance and the role of distributed solar in a fair and just energy transition. 

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Install solar panels at home, at the office, and/or at other properties; share your experience and tips with neighbors and the broader community.
  • If your community is not connected to the main grid, consider developing a local mini-grid.
  • Conduct careful planning for installation, ensuring panel tilt, maintenance, and shading are evaluated based on local climatic conditions and are accounted for properly.
  • Conduct regular maintenance and cleaning to enhance cost efficiency and energy savings, especially in arid climates.
  • Help create or support community solar projects using a variety of models, such as build-own-operate, public-private partnerships, utility models, energy communities, and cooperatives.
  • If available, take advantage of government incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and forgivable or concessional loans for development.
  • Call for government incentives for consumers, if necessary, such as subsidies ( especially to reduce up-front cost), feed-in tariffs, tax credits, grants, waived grid connection fees, and forgivable or concessional loans; help ensure regulations allow for grid injections and net-metering schemes; advocate for long-term policies and incentives that will remain stable for at least five years; call for similar financial incentives for supporting equipment manufacturers, such as those that produce batteries and inverters.
  • Advocate for carbon taxes and the removal of subsidies from fossil-fuel infrastructure; recommend those funds be redirected into renewable energy.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to deployment, technology transfers, education, de-risking markets, and other relevant areas.
  • Participate in public awareness campaigns focused on solar projects; share information with your community and networks.

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Level of consensus: High

The scientific consensus surrounding distributed solar PV is strong in support of its emissions reduction potential, cost declines, and grid benefits, although nuances and regional gaps persist. Many studies have documented adoption drivers, grid impacts, performance constraints, and social equity issues, together forming a robust evidence base.

Distributed solar PV not only reduces emissions but also enhances local grid resilience, with one study demonstrating reductions in peak load and frequency interruptions (Ovaere et al., 2020). However, careful grid integration planning, smart inverter controls, and grid upgrades are required to avoid adverse effects because rooftop PV affects voltage quality, reverse power flow, frequency stability, and protection systems (Alboaouh & Mohagheghi, 2020). High penetration of rooftop PV can also lead to voltage issues and power disruptions, create protection coordination issues, and strain regional grid elements (Tran et al., 2023; Uzum et al., 2021). 

Broad solar adoption, including household-level PV, depends on many factors, including key determinants such as affordability, policy support, infrastructure, and social norms. This is especially true in rapidly growing countries (Oliva & Atehortua Santamaria, 2025; Shakeel et al., 2023). In China, distributed solar PV development is now shaped by subsidy phase-out and grid parity dynamics after a decade of evolving policy and finance mechanisms (Zhang & Sirin, 2024). However, regardless of the regional policy landscape, distributed rooftop systems face real-world performance losses due to shading, panel tilt, temperature, and maintenance constraints (Venkatachalam et al., 2025).

The literature strongly supports the notion that distributed solar PV is an effective and scalable mitigation option that can reduce emissions, improve grid reliability, and democratize energy access. There is high consensus on its value, especially when deployed with supportive policy, proper engineering, and system integration. However, unresolved issues remain around cost dynamics of non-hardware components, performance in fragile grids, and equity of deployment. For instance, studies on environmental justice point to lower PV uptake in disadvantaged communities despite high solar potential (Lukanov & Krieger, 2019).

The results discussed in our analysis draw on 10 reviews/meta-analyses, 44 research articles, and 31 institutional reports, covering evidence from different parts of the world, primarily from North America, Europe, and Asia. Many low-income and off-grid regions remain underrepresented, limiting generalizability. Further empirical research in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America is needed to understand distributed PV’s performance, policy interactions, and grid impacts in diverse contexts.

Updated Date

Deploy Utility-Scale Solar PV

Sector
Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Shift Production
Image
Utility-scale solar photovoltaic array
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

Utility-scale solar PV refers to large solar power systems, typically installed on open land and connected directly to a central electric grid, that generate electricity for widespread distribution. These systems generally have an installed capacity above 1 MW. There are various configurations of utility-scale solar PV systems and we include fixed-tilt and tracking systems in this solution. Systems on cropland are also considered in this solution, but dual production of crops and solar energy on the same land area is analyzed as a separate agrivoltaics solution.

Income & work,Health
Land resources,Water resources,Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Deploy Utility-Scale Solar PV is a Highly Recommended climate solution. It reduces the need to generate electricity from fossil fuels and so reduces GHG emissions.
Overview

An estimated 23% of GHG emissions on a 100-year basis comes from electricity generation annually (Clarke et al., 2022), and in 2022, more than 60% of global electricity generation came from fossil fuel–based energy sources (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2024b). Since solar is a clean, renewable resource, utility-scale solar PV does not contribute to GHG emissions or air pollution while generating energy. Deploying utility-scale solar PV reduces the need for electricity generation from fossil fuels, which reduces CO₂ emissions, as well as smaller amounts of methane and nitrous oxide. 

Utility-scale solar PV systems generate electricity by converting sunlight directly into electrical energy through the photovoltaic effect. These systems typically consist of large arrays of solar panels made from semiconductor materials (most commonly crystalline silicon), inverters that convert direct current (DC) electricity to alternating current (AC), structural mounting systems, and transformers. When sunlight strikes the surface of a solar panel, light energy is absorbed and transferred to electrons in the semiconductor material. If the energy is high enough, electrons then move between semiconductor layers producing a flow of electric current (US EIA, 2024). This electricity is routed through inverters, converted into grid-compatible AC power, and delivered to substations and transmission lines (Figure 1). The amount of electricity generated depends on the system size, the intensity of sunlight at the location (solar irradiance), panel efficiency, and the system’s capacity factor. Utility-scale solar PV achieves capacity factors of 9–35%, depending on geography, seasonal variation, and system design (Bolinger et al., 2023). 

There are two main categories of utility-scale systems – fixed-tilt installations, where solar panels are mounted in a static position, and tracking systems, which rotate to follow the sun’s path across the sky, improving energy yield. Newer advances in module design, including bifacial modules and cell technologies such as perovskite-silicon tandem cells, continue to improve system efficiency and lower overall costs of utility-scale solar PV (Gu et al., 2020; Mdallal et al., 2025). 

Utility-scale solar PV generates additional benefits, such as reduced air pollution, lower water use compared to thermal power plants, and relatively fewer public health impacts from energy production. While there are emissions associated with the manufacturing, transportation, and installation of utility-scale solar PV panels, these life-cycle emissions are more than 10 times lower than emissions from fossil fuel–based electricity generation (National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL], 2021). These life-cycle emissions are not quantified in this assessment but are typically addressed under industry- or supply chain-focused solutions. Because utility-scale solar PV produces no emissions during operation, the technology contributes significantly to clean energy transitions. 

Figure 1. (a) Anatomy of a solar cell. Two layers of semiconductor material – most commonly crystalline silicone – are sandwiched between electrodes. Both layers together create a silicon wafer. The layers of this silicon wafer are oppositely charged, which creates an electric field at the material interface. When energy from the sun is absorbed, electrons with sufficient energy cross the electric field and flow towards the electrodes, creating an electric current. (b) Solar panels are built by combining multiple solar cells into modules; multiple panels are used in a solar array. After electricity generation, inverters and transmission systems deliver power to consumers. Modified from (a) Husain et al. and (b) Renew Wisconsin.

Diagrams demonstrating components of a solar cell and a utility-scale transmission system

Sources: Husain, A.A., Hasan, W.Z.W., Shafie, S., Hamidon, M.N., & Pandey, S.S. (2018). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 94, 779–791; (b) Renew Wisconsin. (2018). Utility-scale solar in Wisconsin.

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Adeh, E. H., Good, S. P., Calaf, M., & Higgins, C. W. (2019). Solar PV power potential is greatest over croplands. 9(1), Article 11442. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47803-3

Ahmad, A., Power, N., & Finegan, E. (2025). Maximising solar PV potential: A comprehensive review of factors affecting photovoltaic installation and generation in a mild temperate oceanic climate. Solar Energy Advances, 5, Article 100111. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SEJA.2025.100111 

Ahmad, M., Zeeshan, M., & Khan, J. A. (2023). Life cycle multi-objective (geospatial, techno-economic, and environmental) feasibility and potential assessment of utility scale photovoltaic power plants. Energy Conversion and Management, 291. Article 117260. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117260

Badza, K., Soro, Y. M., & Sawadogo, M. (2023). Life cycle assessment of a 33.7 MW solar photovoltaic power plant in the context of a developing country. Sustainable Environment Research, 33(1), Article 38. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1186/S42834-023-00201-X

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Michael Dioha, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Al-Amin Bugaje, Ph.D.

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/MW installed capacity/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 760
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Based on data provided by the IEA, global emissions from electricity generation accounted for an estimated 530 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh (540 kg CO₂‑eq /MWh, 20-yr basis) (IEA, 2024b; see Methodology: Appendix A for calculation details). To convert from MWh to MW, we used the global weighted average capacity factor for utility-scale solar PV of 16.2% (International Renewable Energy Agency [IRENA], 2024a). Utility-scale solar PV is estimated to reduce 760 t CO₂‑eq /MW (760 t CO₂‑eq /MW, 20-yr basis) of installed capacity annually (Table 1). 

To estimate the effectiveness of utility-scale solar PV, we assumed that newly installed utility-scale solar PV displaces an equivalent MWh of the global electricity grid mix. We then assumed the reduction in emissions from additional utility-scale solar PV capacity was equal to emissions (per MWh) from the 2023 global electricity grid mix (IEA, 2024b). Finally, we used the utility-scale solar PV capacity factor to convert to annual emissions per MW of installed capacity.

Actual avoided emissions will depend on the condition of the local grid at a particular time and place, including the level of solar already deployed (see Methodology, Appendix A). However, the relative emissions benefit from increased solar deployment depends on the energy sources it potentially displaces. Because solar energy output varies diurnally, demand peaks in the evenings need to be met by stored energy or other energy sources that can provide power as demand increases. In coal-dominated markets, increasing utility-scale solar PV generation could lead to overall increased emissions per MWh, even if coal plants operate less often because coal plants emit more during suboptimal operation and ramp-up/ramp-down phases (Suri et al., 2025). 

During operation, utility-scale solar PV emits negligible GHGs, so we assumed zero emissions per MW of installed capacity. However, emissions arise during manufacturing of components, transportation, installation, maintenance, and decommissioning, and are paid back within approximately 1–2 years (Ahmad et al., 2023; Badza et al., 2023; Mehedi et al., 2022; Pincelli et al., 2024; Smith et al., 2024). Studies from many different countries show that total emissions remain far below those of fossil fuel generation (Badza et al., 2023; Pincelli et al., 2024; NREL, 2021; Smith et al., 2024). Manufacturing using coal-intensive grids increases embodied emissions, highlighting the necessity of decarbonizing supply chains (Gan et al., 2023; Pehl et al., 2017).

In our analysis, we focused solely on emissions produced during electricity generation, so carbon payback time and embodied life-cycle emissions were not included in our estimates of effectiveness or climate impacts. 

Cost

We estimated a mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar PV of US$53/MWh based on three industry reports (IEA, 2024a; IRENA, 2025; NEA & IEA, 2020; see Methodology: Appendix A for details). LCOE values represent the average cost of producing one MWh of electricity over the operational lifetime of a power plant, allowing investors to compare their expected revenue to a standard set of costs. This cost metric has been used by international agencies for cost comparison across generation technologies, incorporating installed capital costs, operation and maintenance (O&M), project lifespan, and energy output. According to IRENA, between 2010 and 2024 the global weighted average LCOE for utility-scale solar PV fell by 90%, from US$417/MWh to US$43/MWh. This decline was driven by cost reductions across the PV value chain, with module and inverter price declines accounting for 55% of the LCOE drop (IRENA, 2025). Technological advances such as larger wafer sizes, improved ingot growth methods, diamond wire wafering, and new cell architectures supported these changes. Balance-of-system (BoS) hardware contributed another 8%, while engineering, procurement, construction, installation, development, and other soft costs accounted for 28% of the reduction in LCOE (IRENA, 2025). Better financing conditions, improved capacity factors, and lower O&M costs also played a role.

Recent macroeconomic conditions have slightly reversed the downward trend. Between 2023 and 2024, the global weighted average LCOE for utility-scale solar PV increased by 0.6%, with 13 of the 15 largest markets experiencing cost increases ranging from 7% in Poland to 36% in Australia. Higher financing costs from inflation and elevated interest rates helped drive these shifts. Despite these headwinds, utility-scale solar PV remains one of the cheapest options worldwide for generating electricity. Our estimated global mean LCOE (US$53/MWh) is lower than the 2023 weighted average LCOE for fossil fuels, which was US$70–176/MWh (IRENA, 2024a). However, since LCOE excludes revenue, real-world costs of utility-scale solar generation could be higher than estimated here.

Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Table 2. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of the installed utility-scale solar PV production capacity.

Unit: %

25th percentile 30
Mean 34
Median (50th percentile) 34
75th percentile 38
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Utility-scale solar PV exhibits a pronounced learning curve, most clearly reflected in the steady decline of solar module prices as global deployment expands. The median learning rate for PV modules is estimated at 34%, meaning module prices fall by roughly one-third with every doubling of installed capacity (Table 2). Our estimated learning rate is based on trends in the past decade, while a longer historical estimate would be lower. According to a single source, significant economies of scale over the last decade have driven an even steeper learning rate of 42% (Masson et al., 2023). According to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2024, the current global learning rate for module costs is about 26%, but projections suggest this will slow to around 17% by 2050 as cost components stabilize and the largest gains from scaling are realized (DNV, 2024). 

While module prices have seen the most dramatic reductions, similar trends are evident in total system costs. Studies tracking installed costs and LCOE for PV in the United States since 2007 report a 24% learning rate based on normalized LCOE for utility-scale PV, with an accelerated 45% between 2014 and 2020 (Bolinger et al., 2022). Between 2010 and 2023, IRENA (2024a) found that utility-scale solar PV achieved the highest global weighted-average learning rate for total installed costs among major renewables at 33.4%. Haas et al. (2023) similarly estimated a 33% learning rate for installed costs between 2010 and 2019. Meanwhile, operational expenditure (OPEX) is also expected to benefit from incremental learning, with DNV (2024) projecting a 9% OPEX-based learning rate through 2050, supported by advances in digital monitoring and maintenance practices. 

The drivers of these declines include economies of scale, technology improvements, and manufacturing efficiencies such as larger wafer formats, improved cell architectures, and advanced wafer processing techniques. Given this strong and sustained learning dynamic, continued global deployment is likely to further reduce costs. However, the pace of cost decline will vary depending on the time period, geographic market conditions, and whether costs are measured at the module level or across the full system.

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Deploy Utility-Scale Solar PV is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. As installed capacity of utility-scale PV increases over time, emissions from electricity generation are expected to decrease, assuming solar and other renewables displace fossil-fuel sources.

Caveats

One limitation of our approach is the assumption that each additional MWh generated by utility-scale solar PV displaces an equivalent MWh of the existing grid mix. This simplification implies that new utility-scale solar PV may at times displace other renewables such as onshore wind, rather than fossil fuel–based sources. In reality, the extent of avoided emissions varies based on regional grid dynamics, marginal generation sources, and the timing and location of electricity production. Utility-scale solar PV displaces a relatively high share of fossil fuel generation in grids where renewables are supported by flexible energy sources, such as natural gas (Suri et al., 2025). However, fossil fuel displacement is lower in coal-dominated grids, grids with significant nuclear or geothermal capacity, or regions where existing renewable capacity is already high (Baik et al., 2021; Bistline & Watten, 2025). 

Implementing utility-scale solar PV involves several caveats. Technically, projects require large areas of suitable land and strong grid connections. Poor siting can reduce output due to shading, dust, or suboptimal solar resource (Bamisile et al., 2025; Sengupta et al., 2024). These challenges can be reduced through careful site selection, use of bifacial modules, use of tracking systems, and improved maintenance practices such as dry-cleaning technologies in arid regions. Another technical caveat is end-of-life management. Cumulative global PV waste is expected to reach 60–78 million metric tons by 2050 (IRENA & IEA-PVPS, 2016), so scaling up recycling infrastructure and circular design is essential (Ovaitt et al., 2022). 

High capital intensity and financing constraints remain important barriers, particularly in emerging markets where high interest rates, policy uncertainty, and limited investor confidence increase project risk. Addressing these challenges often requires stable regulatory frameworks, concessional finance, and public–private partnerships to de-risk investments (Dioha, 2025). Supply-chain concentration also presents a caveat, as China dominates polysilicon and module production (IEA, 2022). 

There are also ecological and social caveats. Large solar farms may compete with agriculture or alter local ecosystems, particularly in sensitive desert or grassland habitats (Hernandez et al., 2014; Lafitte et al., 2023; Xu et al., 2024). Mitigation strategies such as agrivoltaics and siting on degraded land are increasingly used to minimize conflicts and deliver additional benefits (Adeh et al., 2019; Giri & Mohanty, 2022; Tawalbeh et al., 2021; Yavari et al., 2022). Social resistance can also emerge around land rights, visual impacts, or perceived inequitable distribution of project benefits, highlighting the importance of community engagement and benefit-sharing (Shyu & Yang, 2025; Susskind et al., 2022).

Current Adoption

Table 3. Current adoption level, 2023.

Unit: MW installed capacity

25th percentile 917,000
Mean 918,000
Median (50th percentile) 918,000
75th percentile 918,000
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As of 2023, the global installed capacity for utility-scale solar PV reached approximately 918,000 MW (Table 3). We estimated current adoption of utility-scale solar PV based on IEA reports (IEA, 2023a; Masson et al., 2024). Although we use 2023 as our baseline for current adoption, in 2024 an estimated additional 308,300 MW of utility-scale solar PV capacity was installed, bringing the global total to 1,226,000 MW or more than 1 TW (IEA, 2023a). 

In 2023, utility-scale solar PV accounted for 269.9 GW of new capacity additions, representing 59% of total global solar PV installed capacity that year (Masson et al., 2024). China continues to lead by a wide margin, with more than 435 GW of installed capacity, more than half the global total (Masson et al., 2024). Utility-scale solar PV systems are driving the majority of new additions in several key markets where large projects dominate deployment, including the U.S., India, Spain, and South Korea. By contrast, other regions such as the Middle East and Africa are progressing more slowly, with relatively limited large-scale deployments despite vast solar energy potential (SolarPower Europe, 2025). These disparities highlight the uneven pace of adoption across markets. For further details, see the Geographic Guidance section.

Adoption Trend

Figure 2. Global adoption of utility-scale solar PV, 2015–2023

Source: International Energy Agency. (2023). Solar PV power capacity in the Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/solar-pv-power-capacity-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2015-2030 Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Table 4. Adoption trend, 2015–2023.

Unit: MW installed capacity/yr

25th percentile 65,000
Mean 101,000
Median (50th percentile) 82,000
75th percentile 99,000
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Global utility-scale solar PV capacity has grown rapidly, expanding from 113 GW in 2015 to about 918 GW by 2023 (Figure 2), reflecting technological progress, supportive policies, and accelerating investment. 

We calculated the global adoption trend by summing global adoption for each year between 2015 and 2023 and taking the year-to-year difference. Comparing year-to-year global adoption, the median global adoption trend was adding 82,000 MW of installed capacity per year, but expansion was unevenly distributed geographically (Table 4, Figure 2). 

Global utility-scale solar PV capacity expanded more than eightfold between 2015 and 2023 (IEA, 2023a). Growth was steady during the mid-2010s, averaging about 60–70 GW added per year, but adoption accelerated sharply in 2020, with annual additions climbing from 90 GW to 243 GW in 2023 (IEA, 2023a). This means that in 2023 alone, installations were more than double the yearly average of the previous five years, pushing the mean trendline to ~100 GW of annual growth since 2015. The data show a clear shift from incremental to exponential deployment, with utility-scale solar PV now accounting for the majority of global new renewable capacity (IRENA, 2024b).

Adoption Ceiling

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption level.

Unit: MW installed capacity

25th percentile 224,000,000
Mean 252,000,000
Median (50th percentile) 252,000,000
75th percentile 279,000,000
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The adoption ceiling for utility-scale solar PV is determined by the technology’s global technical potential, based primarily on solar resource availability. Since sunlight is geographically widespread and virtually inexhaustible, solar PV has one of the highest technical potentials of all renewable energy technologies. However, realistic deployment could vary across regions depending on land use, transmission access, and electricity demand. 

Estimates of utility-scale solar PV potential vary widely across the literature. A meta-analysis found global technical potential ranging from 1.01 × 10² PWh/yr to 1.36 × 10⁴ PWh/yr, spanning two orders of magnitude; the median value was 4.65 × 10² PWh/yr while the average was 2.20 × 10³ PWh/yr (de La Beaumelle et al., 2023). Dupont et al. (2020) estimated the global net potential at 225 PWh/yr for poly-Si PV and 332 PWh/yr for mono-Si PV, while Deng et al. (2015), using a 1 km² global grid analysis, estimated realistic long-term potentials of 88–782 PWh/yr. 

Despite the abundant solar resource, the adoption ceiling is unlikely to be reached due to other constraints. Land availability as well as competition with agriculture, urbanization, and protected ecosystems can restrict deployment (Diffendorfer et al., 2024; van de Ven et al., 2021). Grid integration poses another challenge, as high penetration of variable solar requires substantial investment in storage, flexible generation, and transmission to ensure system reliability. Regional solar resource quality, siting regulations, and access to capital further influence adoption (Ahmad et al., 2025; Bamisile et al., 2025). Emerging technologies such as agrivoltaics and floating PV can help overcome some of these barriers, bringing practical adoption levels closer to the ceiling (Adeh et al., 2019). 

For our analysis, we estimated the median technical potential, which corresponds to an adoption ceiling of 252 million MW of installed capacity for utility-scale solar PV (Table 5). 

Achievable Adoption

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: MW installed capacity

Current adoption 918,000
Achievable – low 12,000,000
Achievable – high 15,000,000
Adoption ceiling 252,000,000
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The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024 presents several scenarios that explore future energy pathways under different assumptions about policies, technologies, and markets. For this analysis, we define the adoption achievable range for utility-scale solar PV based on the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) (IEA, 2024a). However, the WEO does not explicitly distinguish between utility-scale and distributed solar PV in its projections. To bridge this gap, we conducted a simple linear projection using historical deployment trends to estimate the likely share of utility-scale PV within total solar PV capacity. Our analysis suggests that by 2050, utility-scale solar PV could represent approximately 74% of all solar PV deployment. This finding is consistent with IRENA’s REmap analysis, which projects that utility-scale systems will account for 60–80% of global solar PV capacity by mid-century (IRENA, 2019). Accordingly, for our study we assume that 74% of the IEA’s projected solar PV deployment in 2050 will come from utility-scale systems. This provides a reasonable basis for estimating adoption levels, while aligning with both historical patterns and complementary international assessments.

Achievable – Low 

The low achievable adoption level is based on the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects the current trajectory of utility-scale solar PV expansion under existing and announced policies. In this scenario, assuming utility-scale projects account for 74% of total solar PV capacity, global capacity is projected to grow more than 13-fold; from 918,000 MW in 2023 to approximately 12 million MW by 2050 (Table 6). This corresponds to an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%.

Achievable – High 

The high achievable adoption level is based on APS, which assumes the same policy framework as STEPS, plus full realization of announced national energy and climate targets, including net-zero commitments supported by stronger clean energy investments. Under this scenario, utility-scale solar PV capacity is projected to increase approximately 16-fold from 918,000 MW in 2023 to approximately 15 million MW by 2050 (Table 6), requiring a CAGR of 10.8% over the same period. 

Using our adoption ceiling of 252 million MW, the current adoption of utility-scale solar PV constitutes approximately 0.4% of its technical potential. The achievable adoption range, as calculated, lies between 4.8% and 5.9% of this potential.

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.69
Achievable – low 9.2
Achievable – high 11.2
Adoption ceiling 190
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Using baseline global adoption and effectiveness, we estimated the current total climate impact of utility-scale solar PV to be approximately 0.70 Gt CO₂‑eq of reduced emissions per year (Table 7). 

We estimated climate impacts using the emissions from the 2023 baseline electricity grid. Actual emissions reductions could differ depending on how the emissions intensity of electricity generation changes over time. As solar and other renewables grow to represent an increasingly high percentage of power generation sources, grid emissions are expected to decrease over time (DNV, 2024; IEA, 2024a). As a result, the climate impacts presented here are likely overestimates. Assuming global policies on utility-scale solar PV – both existing and announced – are backed with adequate implementation provisions, global adoption could reach 12 million MW by 2050. This would result in an increased emissions reduction of approximately 9.2 Gt CO₂ ‑eq per year. If every nation’s energy and climate targets (including net-zero commitments backed by stronger clean energy investments) are realized, utility-scale solar PV adoption could reach 15 million MW by 2050, leading to an estimated 11 Gt CO₂ ‑eq of reduced emissions per year. 

We based the adoption ceiling solely on the technical potential of utility-scale solar PV, while neglecting social and economic constraints and realistic scenarios of future power demand (Dioha et al, 2025). Utility-scale solar PV installed capacity is unlikely to reach 252 million MW, but if current grid emissions remained constant while capacity increased, GHG emission reductions would be approximately 190 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. This maximum is unrealistic as a forward-looking climate impact because it treats grid carbon intensity as permanently fixed at 2023 levels and ignores future decarbonization and corresponding decreases in marginal avoided emissions.

Additional Benefits

Income and Work

Solar PV can have a strong positive effect on the economy, as it accounts for 44% of renewable energy jobs globally and is the fastest-growing sector of renewable energy employment (IRENA & ILO, 2024). The majority of direct and indirect jobs in solar PV are found in China, followed by the European Union (IRENA & ILO, 2024). In the United States as of 2021, it was estimated that solar PV accounted for about 250,000 full-time jobs, with the majority of these jobs in the installation, project development, and manufacturing sectors (Gadzanku et al., 2023). While about half of solar PV jobs are in the distributed PV sector, utility-scale PV accounts for about 20% of these jobs and is expected to grow as installed capacities grow (Gadzanku et al., 2023). According to a report from NREL, about 509,000–757,000 jobs for both utility- and distributed-scale solar PV are projected to be added in the U.S. by 2030 (Truitt et al., 2022).

Health

Improvements in air quality offer health benefits from reduced air pollution exposure, including reduced premature mortality. The magnitude and distribution of these benefits depend on the local electricity grid mix, the fuels used to generate electricity, and atmospheric conditions that affect how far pollutants travel from emission sources (Buonocore et al., 2019). Regions with a higher proportion of coal-powered electricity generation will see more health benefits when utility-scale PV is deployed (Buonocore et al., 2019). These health benefits often translate into cost savings associated with reductions in hospital admissions, improved respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, and avoidance of lost work and school days (Millstein et al., 2017; Wiser et al., 2016). For example, a study from Chile found that when utility-scale solar PV projects were deployed, there was a reduction in hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions in cities downwind of fossil fuel–powered electricity plants (Rivera et al., 2024). 

Water Resources

Utility-scale solar PV systems have lower rates of water withdrawals and consumption than other fossil fuel–based electricity generation (Wiser et al., 2016). The majority of water use for PV electricity is for washing and dust suppression on the panels (Hernandez et al., 2014).

Land Resources

Although utility-scale PV projects require large areas of suitable land (see Caveats and Interactions), these projects can utilize degraded lands that may not be suitable for other uses (Diffendorfer et al., 2024; Hernandez et al., 2014).

Air Quality

Solar PV reduces air pollutants released from fossil fuel energy generation, thereby avoiding the emission of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5 associated with burning coal and natural gas (Abel et al., 2018; Millstein et al., 2024; Millstein et al., 2017; Wiser et al., 2016). Regional differences in the amount and type of air pollutants avoided will vary depending on the fossil fuel type that PV displaces (Gallagher & Holloway, 2020). For example, since coal has different emissions than gas, regions with higher levels of coal-powered electricity will experience different air quality benefits than regions with more gas-powered electricity (Millstein et al., 2017). Depending on meteorological conditions, pollutants can be transported for long distances after they are emitted, so air pollution benefits can be widespread (Millstein et al., 2024).

Risks

Several risks accompany the large-scale rollout of utility-scale solar PV. Rapid deployment without adequate storage, grid flexibility, or transmission can elevate curtailment rates, undermining both financial returns and emissions reductions (Firoozi et al., 2025; Zubi et al., 2024). However, financial risk from high solar deployment and integration can be avoided with various policy levers, such as carbon taxes (Brown & Reichenberg, 2021). Different policy levers are necessary at different levels of adoption. The combined impact of higher shares of renewables generating electricity and increased electrification of consumer services can lead to greater risk of the intermittent supply from renewables being unable to meet electricity demand at all hours of the year (Wolak, 2022). Since long-term forecasting of supply is more challenging for technologies like wind and solar, stable electricity prices are not always guaranteed. This higher investment risk can discourage generators from investing in clean energy deployment (Dimanchev et al., 2024) in the absence of policy mechanisms such as contracts for difference that can manage investment risks by supporting creation of electricity markets with stable long-term prices (Beiter et al., 2024). 

Concentrated supply chains also create vulnerabilities to trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and ethical risks, including documented concerns concerning forced labor in parts of the supply chain (IEA, 2022; Reinsch & Arrieta-Kenna, 2021). Environmental and health risks arise if end-of-life infrastructure and policies are inadequate; billions of metric tons of PV waste could otherwise end up in landfills, with additional concerns in some areas over water usage for panel cleaning or habitat disruption due to poorly sited installations (Bajagain et al., 2020; Chowdhury et al., 2020; IRENA & IEA-PVPS, 2016).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Increased availability of renewable energy from utility-scale solar PV helps reduce emissions from the electricity grid as a whole. Reduced emissions from the electricity grid lead to lower downstream emissions for solutions that rely on electricity use. Deploying utility-scale solar PV also supports increased integration of wind power technologies by diversifying the renewable energy mix and reducing exposure to wind variability.

High penetration of utility-scale PV could incentivize increased adoption of automation systems that take advantage of times of high solar generation and lower electricity prices.

Electrification of transportation systems will be more beneficial in reducing global emissions if the underlying grid includes a higher proportion of non-emitting power sources. Electric transportation systems can also reduce curtailment of solar energy through controlled-time charging and other load-shifting technologies.

Competing

In regions where grid expansion is slow, prioritizing large-scale solar PV plants may delay distributed PV systems that are essential for rural or last-mile electrification.

Since wind and solar can generate electricity at the same times of day, deploying utility-scale solar PV could create competition for grid connections, reduce daytime electricity revenues, and suppress adoption of additional wind power.

Increased development and installation of utility-scale solar PV requires dedicated land use which limits land availability for other renewable energy technologies, raw material and food production, and conservation programs. For example, utility-scale solar PV competes with the following solutions for land:

Dashboard

Solution Basics

MW installed capacity

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
760
units/yr
Current 918,000 01.2×10⁷1.5×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.69 9.211
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

Utility-scale solar PV delivers substantial net emissions savings, but significant trade-offs persist. Curtailment often reflects economic policy outcomes and grid integration constraints rather than a technical necessity. Limited integration infrastructure may also necessitate reliance on backup fossil-powered plants, thereby shifting emissions elsewhere in the energy system (Frew et al., 2021). Land use also involves trade-offs, as large projects can disrupt ecosystems or agricultural land, though co-location strategies such as agrivoltaics and usage of degraded lands can help offset these impacts (Chopdar et al., 2024; Giri & Mohanty, 2022). 

The temporal variability of solar energy also creates trade-offs. When demand peaks in evening hours, non-solar energy sources ramp up generation, which could lead to increases in marginal emissions (Gagnon & O’Shaughnessy, 2024). In regions with high solar deployment, increased adoption of distributed PV could displace utility-scale solar generation, since both operate diurnally, resulting in no net reduction in grid emissions (Bistline & Watten, 2025).

kWh/m2/yr
3622400

Annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI)

Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measures the intensity (energy per area per year) of all solar radiant energy on a horizontal surface. The power output of fixed solar PV systems is limited by horizontal irradiance, although additional solar energy can be captured if tracking systems are incorporated into panels. These estimates are based on regional data from as early as 1994 and as late as 2024.

Energy Sector Management Assistant Program, The World Bank Group & Solargis. (2025). GHI - Global horizontal irradiation (GSA 2.12) [Data set]. The World Bank Group. Retrieved March 13, 2026, from Link to source: https://globalsolaratlas.info/download/world

kWh/m2/yr
3622400

Annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI)

Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measures the intensity (energy per area per year) of all solar radiant energy on a horizontal surface. The power output of fixed solar PV systems is limited by horizontal irradiance, although additional solar energy can be captured if tracking systems are incorporated into panels. These estimates are based on regional data from as early as 1994 and as late as 2024.

Energy Sector Management Assistant Program, The World Bank Group & Solargis. (2025). GHI - Global horizontal irradiation (GSA 2.12) [Data set]. The World Bank Group. Retrieved March 13, 2026, from Link to source: https://globalsolaratlas.info/download/world

Maps Introduction

Utility-scale solar PV deployment is driven by a variety of factors, some of which are spatial (such as total incident solar radiation) and some which may indirectly depend on geography, such as socioeconomic and market conditions.

More than 30 countries had more than 1 GW installed by the end of 2023 including new markets in the Middle East and Africa. Ten countries represented 84% of total solar markets in 2023, including distributed solar PV, with China, the United States, and India at the top of the list (IEA PVPS, 2023). Utility-scale solar PV dominated 2023 solar PV installations in both China and the United States, accounting for 65% and 70% of the Chinese and U.S. solar markets respectively (IEA PVPS, 2023).

In many regions, deployment of utility-scale solar PV lags significantly behind the economic and decarbonization potential, and large-scale deployment does not typically align with regions of maximal potential, as can be seen by comparing maps of installed capacity and irradiance. Brazil and Australia are notable exceptions, having significant deployment and high levels of GHI (Bamisile et al., 2025). However, utility-scale solar PV markets in Brazil and Australia are much smaller than in China and the United States. In emerging markets, solar PV competitiveness is stifled by limited access to capital, lack of technical talent, and persistent fossil-fuel subsidies. Targeted capital investments in sub-Saharan Africa can yield up to nine times the GHG emissions reduction of equivalent investments in more mature markets (Peters, 2025). In more mature markets like the U.S., barriers are primarily structural, including long grid interconnection timelines and high costs (Gorman et al., 2025). 

The emissions benefit from increased solar PV deployment depends on the energy sources it displaces. Displacing sources of electricity that emit more GHGs leads to greater emissions reductions. However, real-world emissions reductions also depend on which sources are able to provide power when solar PV is unable to meet peaks in demand. In addition to targeting regions with dirtier grids, increasing utility-scale solar PV in regions with more dispatchable power sources and robust storage infrastructure could increase emissions reductions (Bistline & Watten, 2025). Here we show a map of avoided emissions with each incremental addition of solar PV, calculated by WattTime (watttime.org).

Action Word
Deploy
Solution Title
Utility-Scale Solar PV
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set ambitious long-term renewable energy goals, and incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Ensure regulatory frameworks around solar are strong and enforced, while also being accessible and timely; coordinate solar power policies horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); seek to align social and environmental safeguards and streamline permitting processes.
  • Adopt and progressively raise renewable energy procurement standards for the public sector to expand demand and investment in utility-scale solar PV.
  • Set renewable energy quotas for power companies; offer expedited permitting processes for renewable energy production, including solar where competitive, while maintaining social and environmental safeguards.
  • Develop long-term, flexible partnership frameworks with industry to align power supply contracts (such as adaptable or aggregated Purchase Power Agreements (PPAs) with national decarbonization targets and timelines.
  • Set adjustments for solar power on-grid pricing through schemes such as feed-in tariffs, renewable energy auctions, or other guaranteed pricing methods for solar energy.
  • Offer incentives to manufacturers, operators, developers, and other relevant actors, such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts-for-difference; as the market matures and becomes competitive, gradually reduce these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Implement carbon taxes and remove subsidies from fossil fuel infrastructure; redirect those funds into renewable energy.
  • Consider using green bonds to finance public projects and/or de-risk markets.
  • Invest in and subsidize improvements to grid integration and flexibility, storage, and transmission infrastructure to manage variable generation; deploy smart grid technologies.
  • Work with industry to diversify supply chains; design incentives and policies to stimulate local or regional production and advance R&D.
  • Provide incentives for consumers to adjust energy use in response to renewable availability and grid conditions, such as through dynamic or demand-responsive pricing models that complement solar PV generation and support decarbonization.
  • Earmark a percentage of financial incentives for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Improve labor and human rights laws and environmental standards around solar PV supply chains; enforce standards with industry – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals and panel manufacturing.
  • Co-design utility-scale solar projects with the local community; ensure the community engagement process starts early and is transparent, inclusive, and ongoing; solicit feedback from the local community – including from opposition groups – on location, design, finance, and mitigation; ensure finalized projects address relevant sociological, agricultural, and ecological considerations.
  • Ensure projects operating in or with Indigenous communities only do so under free, prior, and informed consent; codify free, prior, and informed consent into legal systems.
  • Encourage utility-scale solar projects to distribute benefits to the local community, such as reduced utility rates; encourage developers to use Community Benefit Agreements (CBAs).
  • Create and/or incentivize pathways for community solar projects, such as community-shared and cooperative business models.
  • Regulate zoning and distance from existing houses, communities, and villages to prevent enclosing these spaces or interfering with the quality of life for local residents; avoid developing on sensitive ecosystems, such as wetlands and forests; require assessments and techniques to protect against negative impacts on biodiversity.
  • Ensure strong quality control requirements for all stages of deployment including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service; create certification programs for each stage of the process.
  • Work with the private sector to develop workforce training programs, ensuring capacity development for all stages of deployment – including end-of-life services.
  • Ensure strong regulations are in place for end-of-life services; enact Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for manufacturers; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, and recycled panels.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate the industry and public on regulations, the benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information: ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Enter into long-term flexible industry agreements, such as PPAs, with both public and private sectors.
  • If possible, work with government bodies, companies, and large institutions to provide renewable energy directly to their operations.
  • Take advantage of government incentives such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts-for-difference; as the market matures and becomes competitive, seek to gradually reduce reliance on these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Consider using green bonds to finance public projects or de-risk markets.
  • Invest in strengthening grid integration and flexibility through expanded energy storage, upgraded transmission infrastructure, and the deployment of smart grid technologies to effectively manage variable renewable generation.
  • Work with the public sector to diversify supply chains; take advantage of incentives and policies that stimulate local or regional production and advance R&D.
  • Ensure supply chains comply with international labor and human rights laws and standards – particularly, for the extraction of critical minerals and panel manufacturing.
  • Co-design utility-scale solar projects with the local community; ensure the community engagement process starts early and is transparent, inclusive, and ongoing; solicit feedback from the local community – including from opposition groups – on location, design, finance, and mitigation; ensure finalized projects address relevant sociological, agricultural, and ecological considerations.
  • Ensure projects operating in or with Indigenous communities only do so under free, prior, and informed consent; incorporate free, prior, and informed consent into bylaws and/or procedures.
  • Design utility-scale solar projects to support the development of the local community such as reduced utility rates; utilize CBAs.
  • Ensure development is a safe distance from existing houses, communities, and villages to prevent enclosing these spaces or interfering with the quality of life for local residents; avoid developing on sensitive ecosystems, such as wetlands and forests; conduct assessments and deploy techniques to protect negative impacts on biodiversity.
  • Seek to decarbonize the full life cycle including supply chains, production, installation, recycling, and disposal as much as possible.
  • Ensure strong quality control for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service.
  • Work with the public sector and private organizations to develop workforce training programs, ensuring capacity development for all stages of deployment – including end-of-life services.
  • Adhere to regulations regarding end-of-life servicing; adopt extended producer responsibility and high-integrity end-of-life servicing standards if no policy framework exists.
  • Use bifacial modules, tracking systems, and improved maintenance practices, such as dry-cleaning, when beneficial.
  • Invest directly into and help develop recycling infrastructure for solar panels.
  • Participate in, offer, or explore co-investments in electricity infrastructure (e.g., shared transmission).
  • Grant access to researchers and offer data, when possible, to advance deployment and refine best practices.
  • Participate in voluntary agreements with government bodies to increase policy support for solar capacity and power generation.
  • Stay abreast of and engage with changing policies, regulations, zoning laws, tax incentives, and related developments to help remove commercial barriers.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Set ambitious long term renewable energy goals, incorporate them into corporate net zero strategies.
  • Enter into PPAs, long-term contracts between a company (the buyer) and a renewable energy producer (the seller).
  • Support long-term, stable contracts (e.g., PPAs or contracts for difference) that de-risk investment in solar technologies and incentivize local supply chain development.
  • Take advantage of government incentives, such as tax credits, if possible; seek to gradually reduce reliance on these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Purchase high-integrity renewable energy certificates (RECs) for solar energy; help create transparent, verified, and reliable REC markets.
  • Invest in companies that produce, deploy, or provide end-of-life servicing for solar panels; seek to diversify and localize supply chains.
  • Invest in R&D and related technology.
  • Support workforce development programs, offer employee scholarships, and/or sponsor training for careers in solar power; ensuring capacity development for all stages of deployment – including end-of-life services.
  • Participate in community engagement processes and co-design utility-scale solar projects with the local community; help educate the public and highlight the local economic benefits of solar and renewable energy.
  • Offer pro bono business advice or general support for community solar projects, such as community-shared and cooperative business models.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Advocate for ambitious long-term national goals on solar and renewable energy; advocate to incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Operate or help with equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Coordinate voluntary agreements between governments and industry to increase utility-scale solar capacity and power generation.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of solar PVs, forecasting, and related technologies.
  • Advocate for strong regulatory frameworks that are also accessible and timely; recommend coordinated solar power policies – both horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); help align social and environmental safeguards and pursue streamlined permitting processes.
  • Urge governments to provide incentives to manufacturers, operators, developers, and other relevant actors, such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts-for-difference; recommend gradual reductions of these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Campaign for public investments in improvements to grid integration and flexibility, storage, and transmission infrastructure to manage variable generation.
  • Call for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Help improve enforcement of labor and human rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals.
  • Call on governments and developers to use transparent, inclusive, and ongoing community engagement processes to co-design utility-scale solar installations; help solicit community feedback on location, design, finance, mitigation, and distribution of benefits; help ensure finalized projects address relevant sociological, agricultural, and ecological considerations.
  • Advocate and/or support for the use of free, prior, and informed consent with projects operating in or with Indigenous communities; advocate to codify free, prior, and informed consent into legal systems.
  • Advocate for distributed benefits to the local community from utility-scale solar projects, such as reduced utility rates; encourage developers to use CBAs.
  • Help create or support community solar projects, such as community-shared, third-party-owned, and cooperative business models.
  • Advocate for zoning laws to prevent enclosing communities or interfering with the quality of life for local residents; help developers avoid sensitive ecosystems, such as wetlands and forests; conduct site assessments and offer recommendations to prevent or mitigate negative impacts on biodiversity.
  • Create resources and/or standards to improve quality control for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service; create and/or administer certification programs for each stage of the process.
  • Work with the public and private sectors to develop workforce training programs, ensuring capacity development for all stages of deployment – including end-of-life services.
  • Urge governments and industry to adopt strong regulations for end-of-life services; call for extended producer responsibility; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, or recycled panels.
  • Advocate for carbon taxes and the removal of subsidies from fossil fuel infrastructure; recommend those funds be redirected into renewable energy.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate the industry and public on regulations, the benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Investors
  • Offer low-interest loans and concessional financing for manufacturers, developers, operators, and recyclers.
  • Invest directly in the development of utility-scale solar projects; ensure projects include community engagement processes, seek to distribute benefits, and operate under free, prior, and informed consent when working with Indigenous communities.
  • Invest in companies that produce, deploy, or provide end-of-life servicing for solar panels; seek to diversify and localize supply chains.
  • Invest in supporting infrastructures, such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Invest in green bonds and/or explore blended finance structures to mobilize capital for companies developing solar energy or supporting infrastructure.
  • Invest in the recycling infrastructure for solar panels and circular supply chains.
  • Invest in R&D, component technology, and related science, such as forecasting.
  • Help de-risk energy transitions in low- and middle-income countries by offering low-interest loans, concessional financing, and/or favorable terms.
  • Align investments with existing public-private partnerships, voluntary agreements, or voluntary guidance that may apply in the location of the investment (including those that apply to biodiversity).

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Provide catalytic financing for, or help develop, utility-scale solar projects.
  • Award grants to improve supporting infrastructures, such as utility companies, grid development, and access roads.
  • Support the development of component technology and related science, such as forecasting.
  • Award grants to improve the recycling infrastructure for solar panels and build circular supply chains.
  • Facilitate partnerships to share solar technology and best practices between established and emerging markets, promoting energy equity and access.
  • Foster cooperation and technology transfer between low- and middle-income countries with emerging solar sectors.
  • Award grants to enhance grid integration, flexibility, and reliability by supporting innovations in energy storage systems, advanced grid management, and transmission infrastructure that enable effective integration of solar PV generation.
  • Advocate for ambitious long-term national goals on solar and renewable energy; advocate to incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Operate, fund, or support equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Coordinate voluntary agreements between governments and industry to increase utility-scale solar capacity and power generation.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of solar PVs, forecasting, and related technologies.
  • Advocate for strong regulatory frameworks that are also accessible and timely; recommend coordinated solar power policies – both horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); help align social and environmental safeguards and pursue streamlined permitting processes.
  • Advocate for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Help improve enforcement of labor and human rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals.
  • Call on governments and developers to use transparent, inclusive, and ongoing community engagement processes to co-design utility-scale solar installations; help solicit community feedback on location, design, finance, mitigation, and distribution of benefits; help ensure finalized projects address relevant sociological, agricultural, and ecological considerations.
  • Champion and/or support for the use of free, prior, and informed consent with projects operating in or with Indigenous communities; advocate to codify free, prior, and informed consent into legal systems.
  • Advocate for distributed benefits to the local community from utility-scale solar projects, such as reduced utility rates; encourage developers to use CBAs.
  • Help create or support community solar projects, such as community-shared and cooperative business models.
  • Create resources and/or standards to improve quality control for all stages of deployment, including resource extraction, manufacturing, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life service; create and/or administer certification programs for each stage of the process.
  • Work with the public and private sectors to develop workforce training programs; ensuring capacity development for all stages of deployment – including end-of-life services.
  • Urge governments and industry to adopt strong regulations for end-of-life services; call for extended producer responsibility; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, or recycled panels.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate the industry and public on regulations, the benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Further information: 

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for ambitious long-term national goals on solar and renewable energy; advocate to incorporate them into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Operate or help with equipment testing and certification systems, market information disclosures, and onsite supervision.
  • Conduct open-access research to improve the performance of solar PVs, forecasting, and related technologies.
  • Advocate for strong regulatory frameworks that are also accessible and timely; recommend coordinated solar power policies – both horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts); help align social and environmental safeguards and pursue streamlined permitting processes.
  • Urge governments to provide incentives to manufacturers, operators, developers, and other relevant actors, such as subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, tax credits, and contracts-for-difference; recommend gradual reductions of these incentives to create long-term market stability.
  • Campaign for public investments in improvements to grid integration and flexibility, storage, and transmission infrastructure to manage variable generation.
  • Advocate for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Help improve enforcement of labor and human rights laws and standards around solar PV supply chains – particularly for the extraction and use of critical minerals.
  • Call on governments and developers to use transparent, inclusive, and ongoing community engagement processes to co-design utility-scale solar installations; help solicit community feedback on location, design, finance, mitigation, and distribution of benefits; help ensure finalized projects address relevant sociological, agricultural, and ecological considerations.
  • Champion and/or support for the use of free, prior, and informed consent with projects operating in or with Indigenous communities; advocate to codify free, prior, and informed consent into legal systems.
  • Advocate for distributed benefits to the local community from utility-scale solar projects, such as reduced utility rates; encourage developers to use CBAs.
  • Help create or support community solar projects, such as community-shared, third-party-owned, and cooperative business models.
  • Advocate for strong regulations for end-of-life services; advocate for extended producer responsibility; work with industry to foster a market for used, refurbished, or recycled panels.
  • Advocate for carbon taxes and the removal of subsidies from fossil fuel infrastructure; recommend those funds be redirected into renewable energy.
  • Join, create, or participate in public-private partnerships dedicated to de-risking markets, deployment, technology transfers, education, and other relevant areas.
  • Establish one-stop-shop educational programs that use online and in-person methods to educate the industry and public on regulations, the benefits of solar, best practices for development, and other relevant information; ensure the material is sufficient and appropriate for local contexts, paying particularly close attention to language barriers. 

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Continue advancing the performance of monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon cells.
  • Continue advancing bifacial module designs and next-generation solar cell technologies, including perovskite-silicon tandem cells, organic photovoltaics, dye-sensitized solar cells, and passivated emitter and rear contact cells.
  • Advance energy storage systems technologies, such as battery, hydrogen, gravity-based, and other energy storage systems.
  • Improve manufacturing efficiencies, such as larger wafer formats, improved cell architectures, and advanced wafer processing techniques.
  • Continue developing agrivoltaics; improve scientific understanding of water drainage, runoff, and erosion under and near utility-scale solar PV; develop relevant best practices.
  • Advance technologies for floating solar PV installations; seek scalable solutions relevant for utility-scale.
  • Improve recycling infrastructure and scalable technologies to repair, reuse, or recover materials from solar panels.
  • Create more heat-tolerant PV technologies and systems to reduce heat exposure and/or absorption.
  • Create better protection and cleaning systems for PV to preserve functionality during extreme weather and in extreme environments, particularly in deserts.
  • Improve related mining technologies for critical minerals to be safer, less disruptive to local communities and ecosystems, and less energy-intensive.
  • Develop ways of eliminating, reducing, reusing, and/or safely disposing of hazardous byproducts of the PV manufacturing process.
  • Research and develop analytical tools for land allocation and development, taking into account human rights, environmental concerns, energy needs, agricultural demands, and other relevant factors, such as changing weather patterns.
  • Research factors that lead to community acceptance and energy justice for utility-scale solar.
  • Research the impact of utility-scale solar on biodiversity – particularly mammals, amphibians, reptiles, and microorganisms; examine methods to mitigate impacts on biodiversity; research optimal land allocation strategies, comparisons between installation methods and operations, best practices, and the potential for solar installations to provide habitats to some native species; examine relationship with and impacts on invasive species.
  • Research the impacts of floating PV installations on biodiversity – particularly terrestrial or semi-aquatic species.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Purchase high-integrity RECs, which track ownership of renewable energy generation.
  • If your utility company offers transparent green pricing – which charges a premium to cover the extra cost of renewable energy – and if it fits your budget, opt into it.
  • Help create or support community solar projects, such as community-shared, third-party-owned, and cooperative business models.
  • Call on governments and developers to use transparent, inclusive, and ongoing community engagement processes; participate in these processes when possible to co-design utility-scale solar installations; provide and help collect feedback on location, design, finance, mitigation, and distribution of benefits; help ensure finalized projects address relevant sociological, agricultural, and ecological considerations.
  • Advocate for a percentage of public financing to be earmarked for low- and middle-income communities and/or countries.
  • Champion and/or support for the use of free, prior, and informed consent with projects operating in or with Indigenous communities; advocate to codify free, prior, and informed consent into legal systems.
  • Advocate for distributed benefits to the local community from utility-scale solar projects, such as reduced utility rates; encourage developers to use CBAs.
  • Participate in public awareness campaigns focused on solar projects; share information with your community and networks.

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness of utility-scale solar PV in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: High

Utility-scale solar PV is firmly established as an efficient and effective electricity source. Increasing availability of energy produced from PV reduces the need for fossil fuel–derived energy sources such as coal and gas, leading to lower GHG emissions from the global electricity sector. The evidence base for utility-scale solar PV is robust and a wide range of peer-reviewed studies, international energy outlooks, and meta-analyses converge on the conclusion that solar PV is a cornerstone of sustainable global energy production. The IPCC (IPCC, 2023) identifies solar PV as indispensable in all mitigation scenarios, while the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2024 (IEA, 2024a) highlights PV as the largest single source of electricity in net-zero aligned pathways. Similarly, IRENA documents how rapid cost declines, performance improvements, and policy support have enabled utility-scale solar PV to become one of the cheapest sources of new electricity in many regions (IRENA, 2025). Utility-scale solar PV projects have particularly benefited from economies of scale and competitive auctions, accelerating their role in global electricity markets (DNV, 2024; Masson et al., 2024).

The technical potential of solar PV refers to the maximum electricity generation achievable given solar resource availability, constrained only by physical and technological factors. Meta-analyses reveal wide ranges from 101 PWh/yr to more than 13,600 PWh/yr (de La Beaumelle et al., 2023). With only 1.29 PWh generated from solar PV in 2023, the sector is still far from its potential ceiling due to multiple barriers (IEA, 2024b). 

Integration into power systems requires significant investment in grid flexibility, storage, and transmission infrastructure to manage variable generation (Frew et al., 2021; IEA-ETSAP & IRENA, 2015; Tambari et al., 2020). Financing barriers, particularly in Africa and parts of the Global South, remain critical, with high capital costs and policy uncertainty slowing adoption despite abundant solar resource (Dato et al., 2025). 

Notwithstanding, there is high scientific agreement on the effectiveness of utility-scale solar PV as a core climate solution. The results presented here summarize findings from 11 reviews/meta-analyses, 45 research articles, and 25 institutional reports, covering evidence from different parts of the world. We acknowledge potential underrepresentation of insights from sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, which could introduce regional bias in those regions where utility-scale solar PV deployment potential remains substantially underdeveloped.

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