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Protect Peatlands

Sector
FALO & Nature-Based Carbon Removal
Mode
Cut Emissions and Remove Carbon
Cluster
Protect & Manage Ecosystems
Image
Peatland
Coming Soon
Off

Key Takeaways

  • Peatlands are incredibly carbon-rich ecosystems, occupying only 3–4% of Earth’s surface but containing an estimated 600 Gt of carbon – roughly twice as much as is stored in all the world’s trees.
  • When peat soils are drained and exposed to air, the organic material they contain decomposes, releasing greenhouse gases. 
  • Peatland protection is a highly recommended climate solution, able to save more than 13 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr in the tropics and subtropics.
  • At a high achievable adoption level, protecting peatlands could prevent the release of 1.7 Gt CO₂‑eq of greenhouse emissions each year.
Summary

The Protect Peatlands solution is defined as legally protecting peatland ecosystems through establishment of protected areas (PAs), which preserves stored carbon and ensures continued carbon sequestration by reducing degradation of the natural hydrology, soils, and/or vegetation. This solution focuses on non-coastal peatlands that have not yet been drained or otherwise severely degraded. Reducing emissions from degraded peatlands is addressed in the Restore Peatlands solution, and mangroves located on peat soils are addressed in the Protect Coastal Wetlands solution.

Extreme weather events
Income & work,Health
Water resources,Water quality
Description for Social and Search
Protect Peatlands is a HIghly Recommended climate solution. Peatland soils accumulate huge amounts of carbon over centuries. Protecting peatlands reduces disturbances that turn these powerful carbon sinks into major sources of GHG emissions.
Overview

Peatlands are diverse ecosystems characterized by waterlogged, carbon-rich peat soils consisting of partially decomposed dead plant material (Figure 1). They are degraded or destroyed through clearing of vegetation and drainage for agriculture, forestry, peat extraction, or other development. An estimated 600 Gt carbon (~2,200 Gt CO₂‑eq ) is stored in peatlands, twice as much as the carbon stock in all forest biomass (Yu et al., 2010; Pan et al., 2024). Because decomposition occurs very slowly under waterlogged conditions, large amounts of plant material have accumulated in a partially decomposed state over millennia. These carbon-rich ecosystems occupy only 3–4% of land area (Xu et al., 2018b; United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP], 2022). Their protection is both feasible due to their small area and highly impactful due to their carbon density.

Figure 1. These photos show the diversity of peatlands that occur in different places, including a fen peatland and meadow complex in California (top left), a peat swamp in Indonesia (top right), a peat fen and forest in Canada (bottom left), and a peat bog in New Hampshire (bottom right). 

Examples of peatland types

Photo credits: Catie and Jim Bishop | U.S. Department of Agriculture; Rhett A. Butler; Garth Lenz; Linnea Hanson | U.S. Department of Agriculture

When peatlands are drained or disturbed, the rate of carbon loss increases sharply as the accumulated organic matter begins decomposing (Figure 2). Removal of overlying vegetation produces additional GHG emissions while also slowing or stopping carbon uptake. Whereas emissions from vegetation removal occur rapidly following disturbance, peat decomposition and associated emissions can continue for centuries depending on environmental conditions and peat thickness. Peat decomposition after disturbance occurs faster in warmer climates because cold temperatures slow microbial activity. In this analysis, we evaluated tropical, subtropical, temperate, and boreal regions separately.

Figure 2. Intact peatlands (left) are a net greenhouse gas sink, sequestering carbon in peat through photosynthesis but also emitting methane due to waterlogged soils. Drained peatlands (right) are a GHG source, producing emissions from peat decomposition and drainage canals. Modified from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) UK Peatland Programme (2024).

Diagram comparing healthy and degraded peatland

Source:  IUCN UK Peatland Programme. (2024, July 10). New briefing addresses the peatlands and methane debate.

In addition to peat decomposition, biomass removal, and lost carbon sequestration, peatland disturbance impacts methane and nitrous oxide emissions and carbon loss through waterways (Figure 2; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2014; UNEP, 2022). Intact peatlands are a methane source because of methane-producing microbes, which thrive under waterlogged conditions. However, carbon uptake typically outweighs methane emissions. Leifield et al. (2019) found that intact peatlands are a net carbon sink of 0.77 ± 0.15 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr in temperate and boreal regions and 1.65 ± 0.51 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr in tropical regions after accounting for methane emissions. Peatland drainage reduces methane emissions from the peatland itself, but the drainage ditches can become potent methane sources (Evans et al., 2015; Peacock et al., 2021). Dissolved and particulate organic carbon also run off through drainage ditches, increasing CO₂ emissions in waterways from microbial activity and abiotic processes. Finally, rates of nitrous oxide emissions increase following drainage as the nitrogen stored in the peat becomes available to microbes. 

Patterns of ongoing peatland drainage are poorly understood at the global scale, but rates of ecosystem disturbance are generally lower in PAs and on Indigenous peoples’ lands than outside of them (Li et al., 2024b; Wolf et al., 2021; Sze et al., 2021). The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) defines six levels of PAs that vary in their allowed uses, ranging from strict wilderness preserves to sustainable use areas that allow for some extraction of natural resources. All PA levels were included in this analysis (UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Center [UNEP-WCMC] and IUCN, 2024). Due to compounding uncertainties in the distributions of peatlands and Indigenous peoples’ lands, which have not yet been comprehensively mapped, and unknown rates of peatland degradation within Indigenous people’s lands, peatlands within Indigenous peoples’ lands were excluded from the tables but are discussed in the text (Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). 

References

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Thornton, S. A., Setiana, E., Yoyo, K., Dudin, Yulintine, Harrison, M. E., Page, S. E., & Upton, C. (2020). Towards biocultural approaches to peatland conservation: The case for fish and livelihoods in Indonesia. Environmental Science & Policy, 114, 341–351. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.018

Turetsky, M. R., Benscoter, B., Page, S., Rein, G., van der Werf, G. R., & Watts, A. (2015). Global vulnerability of peatlands to fire and carbon loss. Nature Geoscience, 8(1), 11–14. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2325

Uda, S. K., Hein, L., & Sumarga, E. (2017). Towards sustainable management of Indonesian tropical peatlands. Wetlands Ecology and Management, 25(6), 683–701. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-017-9544-0

Uda, S. K., Hein, L., & Atmoko, D. (2019). Assessing the health impacts of peatland fires: A case study for Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(30), 31315–31327. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06264-x

UNEP. (2022). Global peatlands assessment: The state of the world’s peatlands: Evidence for action toward the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of peatlands. Link to source: https://www.unep.org/resources/global-peatlands-assessment-2022

UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. (2024). Protected planet report. Link to source: https://digitalreport.protectedplanet.net

Waldron, A., Adams, V., Allan, J., Arnell, A., Asner, G., Atkinson, S., Baccini, A., Baillie, J. E. M., Balmford, A., Beau, J. A., Brander, L., Brondizio, E., Bruner, A., Burgess, N., Burkart, K., Butchart, S., Button, R., Carrasco, R., Cheung, W., …Zhang, Y. P. (2020). Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: Costs, benefits and economic implications. Link to source: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16560/1/Waldron_Report_FINAL_sml.pdf

Williams, M., Reay, D., & Smith, P. (2023). Avoiding emissions versus creating sinks—Effectiveness and attractiveness to climate finance. Global Change Biology, 29(8), 2046–2049. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16598

Wolf, C., Levi, T., Ripple, W. J., Zárrate-Charry, D. A., & Betts, M. G. (2021). A forest loss report card for the world’s protected areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 5(4), 520–529. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01389-0

Worrall, F., Howden, N. J. K., Burt, T. P., Rico-Ramirez, M. A., & Kohler, T. (2022). Local climate impacts from ongoing restoration of a peatland. Hydrological Processes, 36(3), e14496. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14496

Xu, J., Morris, P. J., Liu, J., & Holden, J. (2018a). Hotspots of peatland-derived potable water use identified by global analysis. Nature Sustainability, 1(5), 246–253. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0064-6

Xu, J., Morris, P. J., Liu, J., & Holden, J. (2018b). PEATMAP: Refining estimates of global peatland distribution based on a meta-analysis. CATENA, 160, 134–140. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2017.09.010

Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D. P., Beilman, D. W., & Hunt, S. J. (2010). Global peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(13), L13402. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Avery Driscoll

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

  • Ted Otte

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

  • Paul C. West, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

We estimated that protecting a ha of peatland avoids 0.92–13.47 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr, with substantially higher emissions reductions in subtropical and tropical regions and lower emissions reductions in boreal regions (100-yr GWP; Table 1a–d; Appendix). 

We estimated effectiveness as the avoided emissions attributable to the reduction in peatland loss conferred by protection (Equation 1). First, we calculated the biome-specific difference between the annual rate of peatland loss outside PAs (Peatland lossbaseline) versus inside PAs (Peatland lossprotected) (Appendix; Conchedda & Tubellio, 2020; Davidson et al., 2014; Miettinen et al., 2011; Miettinen et al., 2016; Uda et al., 2017, Wolf et al., 2021). We then multiplied the avoided peatland loss by the total emissions from one ha of drained peatland over 30 years. This is the sum of the total biomass carbon stock (Carbonbiomass), which degrades relatively quickly; 30 years of annual emissions from peat itself (Carbonflux); and 30 years of lost carbon sequestration potential, reflecting the carbon that would have been taken up by one ha of intact peatland in the absence of degradation (Carbonuptake) (IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2014; UNEP, 2022). The carbon flux includes CO₂‑eq emissions from: 1) peat oxidation, 2) dissolved organic carbon loss through drainage, 3) the net change in on-field methane between undrained and drained states, 4) methane emissions from drainage ditches, and 5) on-field nitrous oxide emissions.

Equation 1.

\[Effectiveness = (Peatland\text{ }loss_{baseline} - Peatland\text{ }loss_{protected})\times( Carbon_{biomass} + 30\cdot Carbon_{flux} + 30\cdot Carbon_{uptake}) \]

Without rewetting, peat loss typically persists beyond 30 years and can continue for centuries (Leifield & Menichetti, 2018). Thus, this is a conservative estimate of peatland protection effectiveness that captures near-term impacts, aligns with the 30-yr cost amortization time frame, and is roughly consistent with commonly used 2050 targets. Using a longer time frame produces larger estimates of emissions from degraded peatlands and therefore higher effectiveness of peatland protection.

The effectiveness of peatland protection as defined here reflects only a small percentage of the carbon stored in peatlands because we account for the likelihood that the peatland would be destroyed without protection. Peatland protection is particularly impactful for peatlands at high risk of drainage.

Table 1. Effectiveness at avoiding emissions and sequestering carbon. Regional differences in values are driven by variation in emissions factors and baseline rates of peatland drainage.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /ha of peatland protected/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 0.92

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /ha of peatland protected/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 4.42

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /ha of peatland protected/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 13.47

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /ha of peatland protected/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 13.23
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Cost

We estimated that the net cost of peatland protection is approximately US$1.5/ha/yr, or $0.25/t CO₂‑eq avoided (Table 2). Data related to the costs of peatland protection are very limited. These estimates reflect global averages rather than regionally specific values, and rarely include data specific to peatlands. The costs of peatland protection include up-front costs of land acquisition and ongoing costs of management and enforcement. The market price of land reflects the opportunity cost of not using the land for other purposes, such as agriculture, forestry, peat extraction, or urban development. Protecting peatlands can also generate revenue through increased tourism. Costs and revenues are highly variable across regions, depending on the costs of land and enforcement and potential for tourism. 

Dienerstein et al. (2024) estimated the initial cost of establishing a protected area for 60 high-biodiversity ecoregions. Amongst the 33 regions that were likely to contain peatlands, the median acquisition cost was US$957/ha, which we amortized over 30 years. Costs of protected area maintenance were estimated at US$9–17/ha/yr (Bruner et al., 2004; Waldron et al., 2020), though these estimates were not specific to peatlands. Additionally, these estimates reflect the costs of effective enforcement and management, but many existing protected areas lack adequate funds for effective enforcement (Adams et al., 2019; Barnes et al., 2018; Burner et al., 2004). Waldron et al. (2020) estimated that, across all ecosystems, tourism revenues directly attributable to protected area establishment were US$43/ha/yr, not including downstream revenues from industries that benefit from increased tourism. Inclusion of a tourism multiplier would substantially increase the estimated economic benefits of peatland protection.

Table 2. Cost per unit climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Median 0.25
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

A learning curve is defined here as falling costs with increased adoption. The costs of peatland protection do not fall with increasing adoption, so there is no learning curve for this solution.

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as gradual, emergency brake, or delayed.

Protect Peatlands is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It has the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than gradual and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.

Caveats

Permanence, or the durability of stored carbon, is a caveat for emissions avoidance through peatland protection that is not addressed in this analysis. Protected peatlands could be drained if legal protections are reversed or inadequately enforced, resulting in the loss of stored carbon. Additionally, fires on peatlands have become more frequent due to climate change (Turetsky et al., 2015; Loisel et al., 2021), and can produce very large emissions pulses (Konecny et al., 2016; Nelson et al., 2021). In boreal regions, permafrost thaw can trigger large, sustained carbon losses from previously frozen peat (Hugelius et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2017). In tropical regions, climate change-induced changes in precipitation can lower water tables in intact peatlands, increasing risks of peat loss and reducing sequestration potential (Deshmukh et al., 2021). 

Additionality, or the degree to which emissions reductions are above and beyond a baseline, is another important caveat for emissions avoidance through ecosystem protection (Atkinson & Alibašić, 2023; Fuller et al., 2020; Williams et al., 2023). In this analysis, additionality was addressed by using baseline rates of peatland degradation in calculating effectiveness. Evaluating additionality is challenging and remains an active area of research.

Finally, there are substantial uncertainties in the available data on peatland areas and distributions, peatland loss rates, the drivers of peatland loss, the extent and boundaries of PAs, and the efficacy of PAs at reducing peatland disturbance. Emissions dynamics on both intact and cleared peatlands are also uncertain, particularly under different land management practices and in the context of climate change.

Current Adoption

Because peatlands are characterized by their soils rather than by overlying vegetation, they are difficult to map at the global scale (Minasny et al., 2024). Mapping peatlands remains an active area of research, and the adoption values presented here are uncertain. We estimated that 22.6 Mha of peatlands are located within strictly protected PAs (IUCN classes I or II), and 82.3 Mha are within other or unknown PA classes (Table 3a–e; UNEP, 2022; UNEP-WCMC & IUCN, 2024), representing 22% of total global peatland area (482 Mha). Because of data limitations, we did not include Indigenous peoples’ lands in subsequent analyses despite their conservation benefits. There are an additional 186 Mha of peatlands within Indigenous peoples’ lands that are not classified as PAs, with a large majority (155 Mha) located in boreal regions (Table 3; Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP, 2022).

Given the uncertainty in the global extent of peatlands, estimates of peatland protection vary. The Global Peatlands Assessment estimated that 19% (90.7 Mha) of peatlands are protected (UNEP, 2022), with large regional variations ranging from 35% of peatlands protected in Africa to only 10% in Asia. Using a peatland map from Melton et al. (2022), Austin et al. (2025) estimated that 17% of global peatlands are within PAs, and an additional 27% are located in Indigenous peoples’ lands (excluding Indigenous peoples’ lands in Canada covering large peatland areas).

Table 3. Current peatland area under protection by biome (circa 2023). Estimates are provided for two different forms of protection: “strict” protection, including IUCN classes I and II, and “nonstrict” protection, including all other IUCN classes. Regional values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.

Unit: Mha protected

Area within strict PAs 12.4
Area within non-strict PAs 41.7

Unit: Mha protected

Area within strict PAs 3.0
Area within non-strict PAs 10.1

Unit: Mha protected

Area within strict PAs 1.1
Area within non-strict PAs 1.6

Unit: Mha protected

Area within strict PAs 6.1
Area within non-strict PAs 28.9

Unit: Mha protected

Area within strict PAs 22.6
Area within non-strict PAs 82.3
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Adoption Trend

We calculated the annual rate of new peatland protection based on the year of PA establishment for areas established in 2000–2020. The median annual increase in peatland protection was 0.86 Mha (mean 2.0 Mha; Table 4a–d). This represents a roughly 0.8%/yr increase in peatlands within PAs, or protection of an additional 0.2%/yr of total global peatlands. This suggests that peatland protection is likely occurring at a somewhat slower rate than peatland degradation – which is estimated to be around 0.5% annually at the global scale – though this estimate is highly uncertain and spatially variable (Davidson et al., 2014).

There were large year-to-year differences in how much new peatland area was protected over this period, ranging from only 0.2 Mha in 2016 to 7.9 Mha in 2007. The rate at which peatland protection is increasing has been decreasing, with a median increase of 1.7 Mha/yr between 2000 and 2010 declining to 0.7 Mha/yr during 2010–2020. Recent median adoption of peatland protection by area is highest in boreal (0.5 Mha/yr, Table 4a) and tropical regions (0.2 Mha/yr, Table 4d), followed by temperate regions (0.1 Mha/yr, Table 4b) and subtropical regions (0.01 Mha/yr, Table 4c) (2010–2020). Scaled by total peatland area, however, recent rates of peatland protection are lowest in the subtropics (0.04%/yr), followed by the boreal (0.14%/yr), the tropics (0.16%/yr), and temperate regions (0.19%/yr).

Table 4. Adoption trend for peatland protection in PAs of any IUCN class (2000–2020). The 25th and 75th percentiles reflect only interannual variance.

Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr

25th percentile 0.24
Mean 0.87
Median (50th percentile) 0.50
75th percentile 0.89

Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr

25th percentile 0.07
Mean 0.23
Median (50th percentile) 0.10
75th percentile 0.28

Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr

25th percentile 0.00
Mean 0.04
Median (50th percentile) 0.01
75th percentile 0.04

Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr

25th percentile 0.05
Mean 0.84
Median (50th percentile) 0.25
75th percentile 0.83
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Adoption Ceiling

We considered the adoption ceiling to include all undrained, non-coastal peatlands and estimated this to be 425 Mha, based on the Global Peatlands Database and Global Peatlands Map (UNEP, 2022; Table 5e; Appendix). We estimated that 284 Mha of undrained peatlands remain in boreal regions (Table 5a), 26 Mha in temperate regions (Table 5b), 12 Mha in the subtropics (Table 5c), and 103 Mha in the tropics (Table 5d). The adoption ceiling represents the technical upper limit to adoption of this solution.

There is substantial uncertainty in the global extent of peatlands, which is not quantified in these adoption ceiling values. Estimates of global peatland extent from recent literature include 404 Mha (Melton et al., 2022), 423 Mha (Xu et al., 2018b), 437 Mha (Müller & Joos, 2021), 463 Mha (Leifield & Menichetti, 2018), and 488 Mha (UNEP, 2022). Several studies suggest that the global peatland area may still be underestimated (Minasny et al., 2024; UNEP, 2022). 

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption of legal protection of peatlands by biome. Values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.

Unit: Mha protected

Peatland area (Mha) 284

Unit: Mha protected

Peatland area (Mha) 26

Unit: Mha protected

Peatland area (Mha) 12

Unit: Mha protected

Peatland area (Mha) 103

Unit: Mha protected

Peatland area (Mha) 425
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Achievable Adoption

UNEP (2022) places a high priority on protecting a large majority of remaining peatlands for both climate and conservation objectives. We defined the achievable range for peatland protection as 70% (low achievable) to 90% (high achievable) of remaining undrained peatlands. Only ~19% of peatlands are currently under formal protection within PAs (UNEP, 2022; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). However, approximately 60% of undrained peatlands are under some form of protection if peatlands within Indigenous peoples’ lands are considered (Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP, 2022; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). While ambitious, this provides support for our selected achievable range of 70–90% (Table 6a-e). 

Ensuring effective and durable protection of these peatlands from drainage and degradation, including secure land tenure for Indigenous peoples who steward peatlands and other critical ecosystems, is a critical first step. Research suggests that local community leadership, equitable stakeholder engagement, and cross-scalar governance are needed to achieve conservation goals while also balancing social and economic outcomes through sustainable use (Atkinson & Alibašić, 2023; Cadillo & Bennett, 2024; Girkin et al., 2023; Harrison et al., 2019; Suwarno et al., 2015). Sustainable uses of peatlands include some forms of paludiculture, which can involve peatland plant cultivation, fishing, or gathering without disturbance of the hydrology or peat layer (Tan et al., 2021).

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption of peatland protection by biome.

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 54
Achievable – low 199
Achievable – high 255
Adoption ceiling 284

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 13
Achievable – low 18
Achievable – high 24
Adoption ceiling 26

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 3
Achievable – low 9
Achievable – high 11
Adoption ceiling 12

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 35
Achievable – low 72
Achievable – high 92
Adoption ceiling 103

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 105
Achievable – low 297
Achievable – high 382
Adoption ceiling 425
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We estimated that PAs currently reduce emissions from peatland degradation by 0.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 7a-e). Achievable levels of peatland protection have the potential to reduce emissions 1.3–1.7 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, with a technical upper bound of 1.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. The estimate of climate impacts under current adoption does not include the large areas of peatlands protected by Indigenous peoples but not legally recognized as PAs. Inclusion of these areas would increase the current estimated impact of peatland protection to 0.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr.

Other published estimates of additional emissions reductions through peatland protection are somewhat lower, with confidence intervals of 0–1.2 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Griscom et al., 2017; Humpenöder et al., 2020; Loisel et al., 2021; Strack et al., 2022). These studies vary in their underlying methodology and data, including the extent of peatland, the baseline rate of peatland loss, the potential for protected area expansion, which GHGs are considered, the time frame over which emissions are calculated, and whether they account for vegetation carbon loss or just emissions from the peat itself. 

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.05
Achievable – low 0.18
Achievable – high 0.24
Adoption ceiling 0.26

Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.06
Achievable – low 0.08
Achievable – high 0.11
Adoption ceiling 0.12

Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.04
Achievable – low 0.12
Achievable – high 0.15
Adoption ceiling 0.17

Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.46
Achievable – low 0.95
Achievable – high 1.22
Adoption ceiling 1.36

Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.61
Achievable – low 1.33
Achievable – high 1.71
Adoption ceiling 1.90
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Additional Benefits

Extreme Weather Events

Peatland protection can help communities adapt to extreme weather. Because peatlands regulate water flows, they can reduce the risk of droughts and floods (IUCN, 2021; Ritson et al., 2016). Evidence suggests that peatlands can provide a cooling effect to the immediate environment, lowering daytime temperatures and reducing temperature extremes between day and night (Dietrich & Behrendt, 2022; Helbig et al., 2020; Worrall et al., 2022).

Health

When peatlands are drained they are susceptible to fire. Peatland fires can significantly contribute to air pollution because of the way these fires smolder (Uda et al., 2019). Smoke and pollutants, particularly PM2.5, from peatland fires can harm respiratory health and lead to premature mortality (Marlier et al., 2019). A study of peatland fires in Indonesia estimated they contribute to the premature mortality of about 33,100 adults and about 2,900 infants annually (Hein et al., 2022). Researchers have linked exposure to PM2.5 from peatland fires to increased hospitalizations, asthma, and lost workdays (Hein et al., 2022). Peatland protection mitigates exposure to air pollution and can save money from reduced health-care expenditures (Kiely et al., 2021).

Income and Work

Peatlands support the livelihoods of nearby communities, especially those in low- and middle-income countries. In the peatlands of the Amazon and Congo basins, fishing livelihoods depend on aquatic wildlife (Thornton et al., 2020). Peatlands in the Peruvian Amazon provide important goods for trade, such as palm fruit and timber, and are used for hunting by nearby populations (Schulz et al., 2019). Peatlands can also support the livelihoods of women and contribute to gender equality. For example, raw materials – purun – from Indonesian peatlands are used by women to create and sell mats used in significant events such as births, weddings, and burials (Goib et al., 2018).

Nature Protection

Peatlands are home to a wide range of species, supporting biodiversity of flora and an abundance of wildlife (UNEP, 2022; Minayeva et al., 2017; Posa et al., 2011). Because of their unique ecosystem, peatlands provide a habitat for many rare and threatened species (Posa et al., 2011). A study of Indonesian peat swamps found that the IUCN Red List classified approximately 45% of mammals and 33% of birds living in these ecosystems as threatened, vulnerable, or endangered (Posa et al., 2011). Peatlands also support a variety of insect species (Spitzer & Danks, 2006). Because of their sensitivity to environmental changes, some peatland insects can act as indicators of peatland health and play a role in conservation efforts (Spitzer & Danks, 2006).

Water Resources

Peatlands can filter water pollutants and improve water quality and are important sources of potable water for some populations (Minayeva et al., 2017). Xu et al. (2018a) estimated that peatlands store about 10% of freshwater globally, not including glacial water. Peatlands are a significant drinking water source for people in the United Kingdom and Ireland, where they provide potable water for about 71.4 million people (Xu et al., 2018a).

Water Quality

See Water Resources section above.

Risks

Leakage occurs when peatland drainage and clearing moves outside of protected area boundaries and is a risk of relying on peatland protection as an emissions reduction strategy (Harrison & Paoli, 2012; Strack et al., 2022). If the relocated clearing also occurs on peat soils, emissions from peatland drainage and degradation are relocated but not actually reduced. If disturbance is relocated to mineral soils, however, the disturbance-related emissions will typically be lower. Combining peatland protection with policies to reduce incentives for peatland clearing can help avoid leakage.

Peatland protection must be driven by or conducted in close collaboration with local communities, which often depend on peatlands for their livelihoods and economic advancement (Jalilov et al., 2025; Li et al., 2024a; Suwarno et al., 2016). Failure to include local communities in conservation efforts violates community sovereignty and can exacerbate existing socioeconomic inequities (Felipe Cadillo & Bennet, 2024; Thorburn & Kull, 2015). Effective peatland protection requires development of alternative income opportunities for communities currently dependent on peatland drainage, such as tourism; sustainable peatland use practices like paludiculture; or compensation for ecosystem service provisioning, including carbon storage (Evers et al., 2017; Girkin et al., 2023; Suwarno et al., 2016; Syahza et al., 2020; Tan et al., 2021; Uda et al., 2017).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Protected areas often include multiple ecosystems. Peatland protection will likely lead to protection of other ecosystems within the same areas, and the health of nearby ecosystems is improved by the services provided by intact peatlands. 

Restored peatlands need protection to reduce the risk of future disturbance, and the health of protected peatlands can be improved through restoration of adjacent degraded peatlands.

Competing

Protecting peatlands could limit land availability for renewable energy technologies and raw material and food production. Protect Peatlands competes with the following solutions for land.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.92
units
Current 5.4×10⁷ 01.99×10⁸2.55×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.05 0.180.24
US$ per t CO₂-eq
0
Emergency Brake

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
4.42
units
Current 1.3×10⁷ 01.8×10⁷2.4×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.06 0.080.11
US$ per t CO₂-eq
0
Emergency Brake

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
13.47
units
Current 3.0×10⁶ 09.0×10⁶1.1×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.04 0.120.15
US$ per t CO₂-eq
0
Emergency Brake

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
13.23
units
Current 3.5×10⁷ 07.2×10⁷9.2×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.46 0.951.22
US$ per t CO₂-eq
0
Emergency Brake

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

None

Action Word
Protect
Solution Title
Peatlands
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set clear designations of remaining peatlands and implement robust monitoring and enforcement methods.
  • Place bans or regulations on draining intact peatlands, compensate farmers for income losses, and offer extension services that promote protection and paludiculture (growing food on peatlands).
  • Grant Indigenous communities full property rights and autonomy and support them in monitoring, managing, and enforcing protected areas.
  • Incorporate peatland protection into national climate plans and international commitments.
  • Coordinate peatland protection efforts horizontally (e.g., across agencies) and vertically (e.g., across subnational, national, and international efforts), ensuring an inclusive process for local and Indigenous communities.
  • Use financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and payments for ecosystem services (PES) to protect peatlands from development.
  • Synthesize water management regulations to ensure local authorities, renters, and landowners coordinate sufficient water levels in peatlands.
  • Remove harmful agricultural, logging, and mining subsidies.
  • Map and utilize real-time data to monitor the status and condition of peatland areas.
  • Invest public funds in peatland conservation, restoration, sustainable management practices, specialized research facilities, and other R&D efforts.
  • Invest in fire warning, prevention, and response efforts and establish local volunteer fire prevention groups.
  • Work with farmers, civil society, and businesses to develop high-integrity carbon markets for peatlands.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Refrain from draining or developing intact peatlands.
  • Invest in peatland conservation, restoration, sustainable management practices, specialized research facilities, and other R&D efforts.
  • Participate in stakeholder engagements and assist policymakers in designating peatlands, creating regulations, and implementing robust monitoring and enforcement methods.
  • Grant Indigenous communities full property rights and autonomy and support them in monitoring, managing, and enforcing protected areas.
  • Ensure protected peatlands don’t displace, violate rights, or reduce access to vital resources for local and Indigenous communities.
  • Assist in managing and monitoring protected peatlands, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Create sustainable use regulations for protected peatland areas that provide resources to the local community.
  • Conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Create legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over protected peatlands.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for protecting peatlands by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Take advantage of existing financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and payments for ecosystem services (PES) to protect peatlands from development.
  • Offer or create market mechanisms such as biodiversity offsets, payments for ecosystem services, voluntary high-integrity carbon markets, and debt-for-nature swaps to fund peatland protection.
  • Synthesize water management regulations to ensure local authorities, renters, and landowners coordinate sufficient water levels in peatlands.
  • Establish coordinating bodies for farmers, landowners, policymakers, and other stakeholders to manage protected areas holistically.
  • Invest in fire warning, prevention, and response efforts and establish local volunteer fire prevention groups.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Create peat-free supply chains, utilizing data, information, and the latest technology to inform product sourcing.
  • Integrate peat-free business and investment policies and practices in net zero strategies.
  • Only purchase carbon credits from high-integrity, verifiable carbon markets and do not use them as replacements for decarbonizing operations.
  • Develop financial instruments to invest in peatlands focusing on supporting Indigenous communities.
  • Conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection and public relations.
  • Leverage political influence to advocate for stronger peatland protection policies at national and international levels. 

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Ensure operations utilize peat-free products and supply chains.
  • Advocate for protecting peatlands and for public investments.
  • Assist in managing and monitoring protected peatlands, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Provide financial support for protecting peatlands management, monitoring, and enforcement.
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over protected peatlands.
  • Support high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Share data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid deforestation to support protected peatlands, businesses, and investors.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for protecting peatlands by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection and public relations.

Further information:

Investors
  • Create peat-free investment portfolios, utilizing data, information, and the latest technology to inform investments.
  • Invest in peatland protection, monitoring, management, and enforcement mechanisms.
  • Utilize financial mechanisms such biodiversity offsets, payments for ecosystem services, voluntary high-integrity carbon markets, and debt-for-nature swaps to fund peatland protection.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection and public relations.
  • Share data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid investments that drive peatland destruction to support peatlands, other investors, and NGOs.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for protecting peatlands by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Ensure operations utilize peat-free products and supply chains.
  • Advocate for protecting peatlands and for public investments.
  • Provide technical assistance to low- and middle-income countries and communities to protect peatlands.
  • Provide financial assistance to low- and middle-income countries and communities for peatland protection.
  • Assist in managing and monitoring protected peatlands, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Support and finance high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over protected peatlands.
  • Support peatlands, other investors, and NGOs by sharing data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid financing peatland destruction.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for protecting peatlands by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection and public relations.
  • Financially support Indigenous land tenure.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for protecting peatlands and for public investments.
  • Assist in managing and monitoring protected peatlands, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Provide technical assistance to low- and middle-income countries and communities to protect peatlands.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over protected peatlands.
  • Support high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Share data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid deforestation to support protected peatlands, businesses, and investors.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for protecting peatlands by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection and public relations.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Improve mapping of peatland area, carbon content, emissions data, and monitoring methods, utilizing field measurements, models, satellite imagery, and GIS tools.
  • Develop land-use planning tools that help avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protecting peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Create tools for local communities to monitor peatlands, such as mobile apps, e-learning platforms, and mapping tools.
  • Develop verifiable carbon credits using technology such as blockchain to improve the integrity of carbon markets.
  • Develop supply chain tracking software for investors and businesses seeking to create peat-free portfolios and products.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Ensure purchases and investments utilize peat-free products and supply chains.
  • Advocate for protecting peatlands and for public investments.
  • Invest in fire warning, prevention, and response efforts and establish local volunteer fire prevention groups.
  • Establish coordinating bodies for farmers, landowners, policymakers, and other stakeholders to manage protected areas holistically.
  • Assist in managing and monitoring protected peatlands, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected peatlands or incentivize drainage.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over protected peatlands.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for protecting peatlands by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protections and public relations.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing emissions and maintaining carbon removal: High

There is high scientific consensus that protecting peatland carbon stocks is a critical component of mitigating climate change (Girkin & Davidson, 2024; Harris et al., 2022; Leifield et al., 2019; Noon et al., 2022; Strack et al., 2022). Globally, an estimated 11–12% of peatlands have been drained for uses such as agriculture, forestry, and harvesting of peat for horticulture and fuel, with much more extensive degradation in temperate and tropical regions (~45%) than in boreal regions (~4%) (Fluet-Chouinard et al., 2023; Leifield & Menichetti, 2018; UNEP, 2022). Rates of peatland degradation are highly uncertain, and the effectiveness of PAs at reducing drainage remains unquantified. In lieu of peatland-specific data on the effectiveness of PAs at reducing drainage, we used estimates from Wolf et al. (2021), who found that PAs reduce forest loss by approximately 40.5% at the global average. 

Carbon stored in peatlands has been characterized as “irrecoverable carbon” because it takes centuries to millennia to accumulate and could not be rapidly recovered if lost (Goldstein et al., 2020; Noon et al., 2021). Degraded peatlands currently emit an estimated 1.3–1.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (excluding fires), equal to ~2–4% of total global emissions (Leifield and Menichetti., 2018; UNEP, 2022). Leifield et al. (2019) projected that without protection or restoration measures, drained peatlands could produce enough emissions to consume 10–41% of the remaining emissions budget for keeping warming below 1.5–2.0 °C. Peatland drainage had produced a cumulative 80 Gt CO₂‑eq by 2015, equal to nearly two years worth of total global emissions. In a modeling study, Humpenöder et al. (2020) projected that an additional 10.3 Mha of peatlands would be degraded by 2100 in the absence of new protection efforts, increasing annual emissions from degraded peatlands by ~25% (an additional 0.42 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr  in their study). 

The results presented in this document synthesize findings from 11 global datasets, supplemented by four regional studies on peatland loss rates in Southeast Asia. We recognize that geographic bias in the information underlying global data products creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Appendix

This analysis quantifies the emissions associated with peatland degradation and their potential reduction via establishment of Protected Areas (PAs). We leveraged multiple data products, including national-scale peatland area estimates, a peatland distribution map, shapefiles of PAs and Indigenous peoples’ lands, available data on rates of peatland degradation by driver, country-scale data on reductions in ecosystem degradation inside of PAs, maps of biomass carbon stocks, and biome-level emissions factors from disturbed peat soils. This appendix describes the source data products and how they were integrated. 

Peatland Extent

The global extent and distribution of peatlands is highly uncertain, and all existing peatland maps have limitations. Importantly, there is no globally accepted definition of a peatland, and different countries and data products use variable thresholds for peat depth and carbon content to define peatlands. The Global Peatland Assessment was a recent comprehensive effort to compile and harmonize existing global peatland area estimates (UNEP, 2022). We rely heavily on two products resulting from this effort: a national-scale dataset of peatland area titled the Global Peatland Database (GPD) and a map of likely peatland areas titled the Global Peatlands Map (GPM; 1 km resolution). 

Scaling Procedures

The GPM represents a known overestimate of the global peatland area, so we scaled area estimates derived from spatially explicit analyses dependent on the GPM to match total areas from the GPD. To develop a map of country-level scaling factors, we first calculated the peatland area within each country from the GPM. We calculated the country-level scaling factors as the country-level GPD values divided by the associated GPM values and converted them to a global raster. Some countries had peatland areas represented in either the GPD or GPM, but not both. Four countries had peatland areas in the GPM that were not present in the GPD, which contained 0.51 Mha of peatlands per the GPM. These areas were left unscaled. There were 38 countries with peatland areas in the GPD that did not have areas in the GPM, containing a total 0.70 Mha of peatlands. These areas, which represented 0.14% of the total peatland area in the GPD, were excluded from the scaled maps. We then multiplied the pixel-level GPM values by the scalar raster. Because of the missing countries, this scaling step very slightly overestimated (by 0.4%) total peatlands relative to the GPD. To account for this, we multiplied this intermediate map by a final global scalar (calculated as the global GPM total divided by the GPD total). This process produced a map with the same peatland distribution as the GPM but a total area that summed to that reported in the GPD.

Exclusion of Coastal Peatlands

Many coastal wetlands have peat soils, though the extent of this overlap has not been well quantified. Coastal wetlands are handled in the Protect Coastal Wetlands solution, so we excluded them from this solution to avoid double-counting. Because of the large uncertainties in both the peatland maps and available maps of coastal wetlands, we were not confident that the overlap between the two sets of maps provided a reliable estimate of the proportion of coastal wetlands located on peat soils. Therefore, we took the conservative approach of excluding all peatland pixels that were touching or overlapping with the coastline. This reduced the total peatland area considered in this solution by 5.33 Mha (1.1%). We additionally excluded degraded peatlands from the adoption ceiling and achievable range using country-level data from the GPD. Degraded peatlands will continue to be emissions sources until they are restored, so protection alone will not confer an emissions benefit.

Total Peatland Area

We conducted the analyses by latitude bands (tropical: –23.4° to 23.4°; subtropical: –35° to –23.4° and 23.4° to 35°; temperate: –35° to –50° and 35° to 50°; boreal: <–50° and >50°) in order to retain some spatial variability in emissions factors and degradation rates and drivers. We calculated the total peatland area within each latitude band based on both the scaled and unscaled peatland maps with coastal pixels excluded. We used these values as the adoption ceiling and for subsequent calculations of protected areas. 

Protected Peatland Areas

We identified protected peatland areas using the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA, 2024), which contains boundaries for each PA and additional information, including their establishment year and IUCN management category (Ia to VI, not applicable, not reported, and not assigned). For each PA polygon, we extracted the peatland area from the unscaled version of the GPM with coastal pixels removed. 

Each PA was classified into climate zones (described above) based on the midpoint between its minimum and maximum latitude. Then, protected peatland areas were summed to the IUCN class-climate zone level, and the proportion of peatlands protected within each was calculated by dividing the protected area by the unscaled total area in each climate zone. The proportion of area protected was then multiplied by the scaled total area for each zone to calculate adoption in hectares within each IUCN class and climate zone. To evaluate trends in adoption over time, we aggregated protected areas by establishment year as reported in the WDPA. We used the same procedure to calculate the proportion of area protected using the unscaled maps, and then scale for the total area by biome. 

We used the maps of Indigenous people’s lands from Garnett et al. 2018 to identify Indigenous people’s lands that were not inside of established PAs. The total peatland area within Indigenous people’s lands process as above.

Peatland Degradation and Emissions

Broadly, we estimated annual, per-ha emissions savings from peatland protection as the difference between net carbon exchange in a protected peatland versus an unprotected peatland, accounting for all emissions pathways, the drivers of disturbance, the baseline rates of peatland disturbance, and the effectiveness of PAs at reducing ecosystem degradation. In brief, our calculation of the effectiveness of peatland protection followed Equation S1, in which the annual peatland loss avoided due to protection (%/yr) is multiplied by the 30-yr cumulative sum of emissions per ha of degraded peatland (CO₂‑eq /ha over a 30-yr period). These two terms are described in depth in the subsequent sections. 

Equation A1.

\[ Effectiveness = Peatland\text{ }loss_{avoided} \times \sum_{t=1}^{30}{Emissions} \]

Peatland Degradation Rates 

We calculated the avoided rate of peatland loss (%/yr) as the difference between the baseline rate of peatland loss without protection and the estimated rate of peatland loss within PAs (Equation A2), since PAs do not confer complete protection from ecosystem degradation. 

Equation A2.

\[ Peatland\text{ }loss_{avoided} = Peatland\text{ }loss_{baseline} \times Reduction\text{ }in\text{ }loss \]

We compiled baseline estimates of the current rates of peatland degradation from all causes (%/yr) from the existing literature (Table A1). Unfortunately, data on the rate of peatland loss within PAs are not available. However, satellite data have enabled in-depth, global-scale studies of the effectiveness of PAs at reducing tree cover loss. While not all peatlands are forested and degradation dynamics on peatlands can differ from those on forests writ large, these estimates are a reasonable approximation of the effectiveness of PAs at reducing peatland loss. We used the country-level estimates of the proportionate reduction in loss inside versus outside of PAs from Wolf et al. (2021), which we aggregated to latitude bands based on the median latitude of each country (Table A1).

Table A1. Biome-level annual baseline rate of peatland loss, the effectiveness of protection at reducing loss, and the annual avoided rate of peatland loss under protection.

Climate Zone Mean Annual Peatland Loss (%/yr) Proportionate Reduction in Loss Under Protection Avoided Loss Under Protection (%/yr)
Boreal 0.3% 0.44 0.13%
Subtropic 1.2% 0.60 0.73%
Temperate 0.6% 0.56 0.33%
Tropic 1.5% 0.41 0.63%
Left Text Column Width

Emissions Factors for Peatland Degradation

Equation S3 provides an overview of the calculation of emissions from degraded peatlands. In brief, we calculated cumulative emissions as the biomass carbon stock plus the 30-yr total of CO₂‑equivalent fluxes from peat oxidation (Pox), dissolved organic carbon losses (DOC), methane from drainage ditches (Mditch), on-field methane (Mfield), on-field nitrous oxide (N) and the lost net sequestration from an intact peatland, accounting for carbon sequestration in peat and methane emissions from intact peatlands (Seqloss).

Equation A3.

\[ \sum_{t=1}^{30}{Emissions} = Biomass + \sum_{t=1}^{30}{(P_{ox} + DOC + M_{ditch} + M_{field} + N + Seq_{loss})} \]

The IPCC Tier 1 emissions factors for peatland degradation are disaggregated by climate zone (tropical, temperate, and boreal), soil fertility status (nutrient-poor versus nutrient rich), and the driver of degradation (many subclasses of forestry, cropland, grassland, and peat extraction) (IPCC 2014; Tables 2.1–2.5). Table III.5 of Annex III of the Global Peatlands Assessment provides a summarized set of emissions factors based directly on the IPCC values but aggregated to the four coarser classes of degradation drivers listed above (UNEP, 2022), which we use for our analysis. They include the following pathways: CO₂ from peat oxidation, off-site emissions from lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), methane emissions from the field and drainage ditches, and nitrous oxide emissions from the field. Particulate organic carbon (POC) losses may be substantial, but were not included in the IPCC methodology due to uncertainties about the fate of transported POC. These emissions factors are reported as annual rates per disturbed hectare, and emissions from these pathways continue over long periods of time.

Three additional pathways that are not included in the IPCC protocol are relevant to the emissions accounting for this analysis: the loss of carbon sequestration potential from leaving the peatland intact, the methane emissions that occur from intact peatlands, and the emissions from removal of the vegetation overlying peat soils. Leifield et al. (2019) reported the annual net carbon uptake per hectare of intact peatlands, including sequestration of carbon in peat minus naturally occurring methane emissions due to the anoxic conditions. If the peatland is not disturbed, these methane emissions and carbon sequestration will persist indefinitely on an annual basis. 

We accounted for emissions from removal of biomass using a separate protocol than emissions occurring from the peat soil due to differences in the temporal dynamics of loss. While all other emissions from peat occur on an annual basis and continue for many decades or longer, emissions from biomass occur relatively quickly. Biomass clearing produces a rapid pulse of emissions from labile carbon pools followed by a declining, but persistent, rate of emissions as more recalcitrant carbon pools decay over subsequent years. The entire biomass carbon stock is likely to be lost within 30 years. Average biomass carbon stocks over the extent of the peatland distribution in the GPM were calculated by latitude band based on the above and below ground biomass carbon stock data from Spawn et al. (2020). We presumed 100% of the biomass carbon stock is lost from peatland degradation, though in many cases some amount of biomass remains following degradation, depending on the terminal land use.

Peatland Degradation Drivers 

Emissions from peatland loss depend on the driver of degradation (e.g., forestry, cropland, peat extraction; IPCC 2014). The GPD contains national-scale estimates of historical peatland loss by driver, which we used to calculate weights for each driver, reflecting the proportion of peatland loss attributable to each driver by latitude band. We took the weighted average of the driver-specific peatland emissions factors, calculated as the sum of the products of the weights and the driver-specific emissions factors.

Appendix References

Garnett, S. T., Burgess, N. D., Fa, J. E., Fernández-Llamazares, Á., Molnár, Z., Robinson, C. J., Watson, J. E. M., Zander, K. K., Austin, B., Brondizio, E. S., Collier, N. F., Duncan, T., Ellis, E., Geyle, H., Jackson, M. V., Jonas, H., Malmer, P., McGowan, B., Sivongxay, A., & Leiper, I. (2018). A spatial overview of the global importance of Indigenous lands for conservation. Nature Sustainability, 1(7), 369–374. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0100-6

IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. (2014). 2013 supplement to the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories: Wetlands (T. Hiraishi, T. Krug, K. Tanabe, N. Srivastava, J. Baasansuren, M. Fukuda, & T. G. Troxler, Eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/Wetlands_Supplement_Entire_Report.pdf

Leifeld, J., Wüst-Galley, C., & Page, S. (2019). Intact and managed peatland soils as a source and sink of GHGs from 1850 to 2100. Nature Climate Change, 9(12), 945–947. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0615-5

Spawn, S. A., Sullivan, C. C., Lark, T. J., & Gibbs, H. K. (2020). Harmonized global maps of above and belowground biomass carbon density in the year 2010. Scientific Data, 7(1), 112. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0444-4

UNEP. (2022). Global peatlands assessment: The state of the world’s peatlands: Evidence for action toward the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of peatlands. https://www.unep.org/resources/global-peatlands-assessment-2022

UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (2024), Protected Planet: The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) and World Database on Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (WD-OECM) [Online], Accessed November 2024, Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. Available at: www.protectedplanet.net.

Wolf, C., Levi, T., Ripple, W. J., Zárrate-Charry, D. A., & Betts, M. G. (2021). A forest loss report card for the world’s protected areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 5(4), 520–529. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01389-0

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Protect Grasslands & Savannas

Sector
FALO & Nature-Based Carbon Removal
Mode
Cut Emissions and Remove Carbon
Cluster
Protect & Manage Ecosystems
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Boreal grassland
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Key Takeaways

  • Grasslands store carbon in soils and below-ground biomass. These are long-lived carbon stocks that take a long time to rebuild after disturbance.
  • At a high achievable adoption level, Protecting grasslands could prevent the release of 0.7 Gt CO₂‑eq in greenhouse gas emissions each year. 
  • Healthy grasslands also support livelihoods and food security, provide wildlife habitat, improve drought and flood resilience, and reduce erosion.
Summary

This solution focuses on the legal protection of grassland and savanna ecosystems through the establishment of protected areas (PAs), which are managed with the primary goal of conserving nature, and land tenure for Indigenous peoples. These protections reduce grassland degradation, which preserves carbon stored in soils and vegetation and enables continued carbon sequestration by healthy grasslands.

This solution only includes non-coastal grasslands and savannas on mineral soils in areas that do not naturally support forests. Salt marshes are included in the Protect Coastal Wetlands solution, grasslands on peat soils are included in the Protect Peatlands solution, grasslands that are the product of deforestation are included in the Restore Forests solution, and grasslands that have been converted to other uses are included in the Restore Grasslands and Savannas solution.

Floods,Droughts
Income & work,Food security,Equality
Land resources,Water resources
Description for Social and Search
The Protect Grasslands & Savannas solution is coming soon.
Overview

Grasslands, also called steppes (Europe and Asia), pampas (South America), and prairies (North America), are ecosystems dominated by herbaceous plants that have relatively low tree or shrub cover. Savannas are ecosystems characterized by low-density tree cover that allows for a grass subcanopy (Bardgett et al., 2021; Parente et al., 2024). Grasslands and savannas span arid to mesic climates from the tropics to the tundra; many depend on periodic fires and grazing by large herbivores. The dataset used to define grassland extent for this analysis classifies areas with sparse vegetation, including some shrublands, deserts, and tundra, as grasslands (Parente et al., 2024), but excludes planted and intensively managed livestock pastures. Hereafter we refer to all of these ecosystems, including savannas, as “grasslands.” 

Historically, grasslands covered up to 40% of global land area, depending on the definition used (Bardgett et al., 2021; Parente et al., 2024; Suttie et al., 2005). An estimated 46% of temperate grasslands and 24% of tropical grasslands have been converted to cropland or lost to afforestation or development (Hoekstra et al., 2004). Nearly half of remaining grasslands are estimated to be degraded due to over- or undergrazing, woody plant encroachment, climate change, invasive species, addition of fertilizers or legumes for forage production, and changing fire regimes (Bardgett et al., 2021; Briggs et al., 2005; Gang et al., 2014; Ratajczak et al., 2012). 

Grasslands store carbon primarily in soils and below-ground biomass (Bai & Cotrufo, 2022). A large fraction of the carbon that grasses take up is allocated to root growth, which over time is incorporated into soil organic matter (Bai & Cotrufo, 2022). When native vegetation is removed and land is tilled to convert grasslands to croplands, carbon from biomass and soils is lost as CO₂.  

Estimates of total carbon stocks in grasslands range from 388–1,257 Gt CO₂‑eq (Conant et al., 2017; Goldstein et al., 2020; Poeplau, 2021). Soil carbon generally persists over long timescales and takes decades to rebuild, with one study estimating that 132 Gt CO₂‑eq in grasslands is vulnerable to loss, and that 25 Gt CO₂‑eq of that would be irrecoverable over a 30-year timeframe (Goldstein et al., 2020). Our analysis did not quantify the impacts of grazing or woody plant encroachment on grassland carbon stocks, which can be mixed, though grazing is discussed further in the Improve Livestock Grazing solution (Barger et al., 2011; Conant et al., 2017; Jackson et al., 2002; Stanley et al., 2024). 

Long-term legal protection of grasslands through PAs and Indigenous peoples’ land tenure reduces conversion and therefore avoids conversion-related pulses of GHG emissions from plowing soils and removing biomass. We consider grasslands to be protected if they are 1) formally designated as PAs (United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre [UNEP-WCMC] and International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources [IUCN], 2024), or 2) mapped as Indigenous peoples’ lands (IPLs) by Garnett et al. (2018) (Appendix). PAs vary in their allowed uses, ranging from strict wilderness preserves to sustainable-use areas that allow for some natural resource extraction; all levels were included in this analysis (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). 

IPLs and PAs reduce, but do not eliminate, ecosystem loss (Baragwanath et al., 2020; Blackman & Viet 2018; Li et al., 2024; McNicol et al., 2023; Sze et al. 2022; Wolf et al., 2023; Wade et al., 2020). Improving management to further reduce land use change within PAs and ensure ecologically appropriate grazing and fire regimes is a critical component of grassland protection (Jones et al., 2018; Meng et al., 2023; Vijay et al., 2018; Visconti et al., 2019; Watson et al., 2014). Additionally, market-based strategies and other policies can complement legal protection by reducing incentives for grassland conversion (e.g., Garett et al., 2019; Golub et al., 2021; Heilmayr et al., 2020; Lambin et al., 2018; Levy et al., 2023; Macdonald et al., 2024; Marin et al., 2022; Villoria et al., 2022; West et al., 2023). Our analyses are based on legal protection because the impact of market-based strategies is difficult to quantify, but these strategies will be further discussed in an additional appendix (coming soon).

References

Adams, V. M., Iacona, G. D., & Possingham, H. P. (2019). Weighing the benefits of expanding protected areas versus managing existing ones. Nature Sustainability, 2(5), 404–411. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0275-5

Ahlering, M., Fargione, J., & Parton, W. (2016). Potential carbon dioxide emission reductions from avoided grassland conversion in the northern Great Plains. Ecosphere, 7(12), Article e01625. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1625

Asamoah, E. F., Beaumont, L. J., & Maina, J. M. (2021). Climate and land-use changes reduce the benefits of terrestrial protected areas. Nature Climate Change, 11(12), 1105–1110. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01223-2

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Waldron, A., Adams, V., Allan, J., Arnell, A., Asner, G., Atkinson, S., Baccini, A., Baillie, J. E. M., Balmford, A., Beau, J. A., Brander, L., Brondizio, E., Bruner, A., Burgess, N., Burkart, K., Butchart, S., Button, R., Carrasco, R., Cheung, W., … Zhang, Y. P. (2020). Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: Costs, benefits and economic implications [Working paper]. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Link to source: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16560/1/Waldron_Report_FINAL_sml.pdf

Ward, M., Saura, S., Williams, B., Ramírez-Delgado, J. P., Arafeh-Dalmau, N., Allan, J. R., Venter, O., Dubois, G., & Watson, J. E. M. (2020). Just ten percent of the global terrestrial protected area network is structurally connected via intact land. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 4563. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18457-x

Watson, J. E. M., Dudley, N., Segan, D. B., & Hockings, M. (2014). The performance and potential of protected areas. Nature, 515(7525), 67–73. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13947

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Williams, M., Reay, D., & Smith, P. (2023). Avoiding emissions versus creating sinks—Effectiveness and attractiveness to climate finance. Global Change Biology, 29(8), 2046–2049. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16598

Wolf, C., Levi, T., Ripple, W. J., Zárrate-Charry, D. A., & Betts, M. G. (2021). A forest loss report card for the world’s protected areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 5(4), 520–529. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01389-0

Yao, J., Liu, H., Huang, J., Gao, Z., Wang, G., Li, D., Yu, H., & Chen, X. (2020). Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 1665. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15515-2

Yu, Q., Xu, C., Wu, H., Ke, Y., Zuo, X., Luo, W., Ren, H., Gu, Q., Wang, H., Ma, W., Knapp, A. K., Collins, S. L., Rudgers, J. A., Luo, Y., Hautier, Y., Wang, C., Wang, Z., Jiang, Y., Han, G., … Han, X. (2025). Contrasting drought sensitivity of Eurasian and North American grasslands. Nature, 639(8053), 114–118. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08478-7

Zhu, K., Chiariello, N. R., Tobeck, T., Fukami, T., & Field, C. B. (2016). Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(38), 10589–10594. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606734113

Zhu, K., Song, Y., Lesage, J. C., Luong, J. C., Bartolome, J. W., Chiariello, N. R., Dudney, J., Field, C. B., Hallett, L. M., Hammond, M., Harrison, S. P., Hayes, G. F., Hobbs, R. J., Holl, K. D., Hopkinson, P., Larios, L., Loik, M. E., & Prugh, L. R. (2024). Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 8(12), 2252–2264. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02552-z

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Avery Driscoll

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Ted Otte

  • Christina Richardson, Ph.D.

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

  • Paul C. West, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

We estimated that protecting 1 ha of grasslands avoids 0.06–0.90 t CO₂‑eq/yr, with emissions reductions tending to be higher in boreal and temperate regions than tropical and subtropical regions (100-yr GWP; Table 1a–d; Appendix).

We estimated effectiveness as the avoided emissions attributable to the reduction in grassland conversion conferred by protection (Equation 1; Appendix), assuming that converted grasslands are used as croplands due to data constraints. Although some grasslands are converted to intensively managed pastures or urban development, we assumed that the total land area converted to infrastructure is relatively small and emissions associated with conversion to planted pastures are comparable to those from conversion to cropland.

We aggregated estimates of avoided grassland conversion attributable to PAs from Li et al. (2024) to the biome level (Grassland lossavoided), then multiplied the result by the total emissions over 30 years from 1 ha of grassland converted to cropland. These emissions include the change in biomass and soil carbon on conversion to cropland (Carbonemissions), 30 years of lost carbon sequestration potential (Carbonuptake), and nitrous oxide emissions associated with soil carbon loss, which is a small component of total emissions (see Appendix for details; Chang et al. 2021; Huang et al., 2024; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2019; Poggio et al., 2021; Spawn et al., 2020).

Equation 1.

\[Effectiveness=(Grassland\text{ }loss_{avoided}) \times (Carbon_{emissions} + Carbon_{uptake}) \]

The effectiveness of grassland protection as defined here reflects only a small percentage of the carbon stored in grasslands because we accounted for the likelihood that the grassland would be converted without protection. Grassland protection is particularly impactful for areas at high risk of conversion.

Table 1a–d. Effectiveness of grassland protection at avoiding emissions and sequestering carbon. Regional differences in values are driven by variation in carbon stocks, baseline rates of grassland conversion, and the effectiveness of PAs at reducing conversion.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr

Estimate 0.90

Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr

Estimate 0.54

Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr

Estimate 0.13

Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr

Estimate 0.06
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Cost

The costs of grassland protection include up-front costs of land acquisition and ongoing costs of management and enforcement. The market price of land reflects the opportunity cost of not using the land for other purposes, such as agriculture or urban development. Data related to the costs of grassland protection are very limited. 

We estimated that grassland protection provides a net cost savings of approximately US$0.53/ha/yr, or US$1.58/t CO₂‑eq avoided (Table 2). This estimate reflects global averages rather than regionally specific values, and some data are not specific to grasslands. Costs and revenues are highly variable across regions, depending on the costs of land and enforcement and the potential for tourism. 

Dienerstein et al. (2024) estimated the initial cost of establishing a PA for 60 high-biodiversity ecoregions. Amongst the 20 regions that contain grasslands, the median acquisition cost was US$897/ha, which we amortized over 30 years. Costs of PA maintenance were estimated at US$9–17/ha/yr (Bruner et al., 2004; Waldron et al., 2020), though these estimates were not specific to grasslands. Additionally, these estimates reflect the costs of effective enforcement and management, but many existing PAs lack adequate funds for effective enforcement (Adams et al., 2019; Barnes et al., 2018; Burner et al., 2004). 

Protecting grasslands can generate revenue through increased tourism. Waldron et al. (2020) estimated that, across all ecosystems, tourism revenues directly attributable to PA establishment were US$43 ha/yr, not including downstream revenues from industries that benefit from increased tourism. Inclusion of a tourism multiplier would substantially increase the estimated economic benefits of grassland protection.

Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact for grassland protection. Negative value indicates cost savings.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Median -1.58
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

A learning curve is defined here as falling costs with increased adoption. The costs of grassland protection do not fall with increasing adoption, so there is no learning curve for this solution.

Speed of Action

The term speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is separate from the speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Protect Grasslands is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It reduces pulses of emissions from the conversion of grasslands, offering the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than gradual and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.

Caveats

Permanence

Permanence is a caveat for emissions avoidance through grassland protection that is not addressed in this analysis. Protected grasslands could be converted to agricultural uses or other development if legal protections are reversed or inadequately enforced, resulting in the loss of stored carbon. Many PAs allow for some human uses, and PA management that is not tailored to grazing needs, fire dependency, or woody plant encroachment can reduce carbon stocks within PAs (Barger et al., 2011; Chang et al., 2021; Conant et al, 2017; Jackson et al., 2002; Kemp et al., 2013; Popleau et al., 2011). Climate change is also causing widespread degradation of grasslands, including reductions in vegetation productivity that may reduce carbon storage over the long term even in the absence of additional disturbance (Chang et al., 2021; Gang et al., 2014; Li et al., 2023; Zhu et al., 2016). Climate change and aridification may also cause expansion of grassland extent (Berg & McColl, 2021; Feng & Fu, 2014; Huang et al., 2016), with mixed but overall negative impacts on terrestrial carbon uptake (Yao et al., 2020).

Additionality

Additionality is another important caveat for emissions avoidance through ecosystem protection (Ahlering et al., 2016; Williams et al., 2023). In this analysis, additionality was addressed by using baseline rates of grassland conversion in calculating effectiveness. Evaluating additionality is challenging and remains an active area of research.

Current Adoption

A total of 555 Mha of grasslands (excluding grasslands on peat soils, grasslands that are also coastal wetlands, and grasslands created through deforestation) are currently located within PAs, and an additional 832 Mha are located on IPLs not classified as PAs (Table 3e). That means that ~48% of grasslands are under some form of protection globally, with 6% in strict PAs, 13% in non-strict PAs, and 29% on IPLs that are not also PAs. As of 2023, tropical regions had the largest extent of protected grasslands (583 Mha), followed by boreal regions (339 Mha), and subtropical regions (293 Mha). In temperate regions, only 24% of grasslands (172 Mha) were under any form of protection (Table 3a–d).

Table 3a–e. Grassland under protection by biome (circa 2023). Estimates are provided for three different forms of protection: “strict” protection, including IUCN classes I and II; “non-strict” protection, including all other IUCN categories; and IPLs outside of PAs. Regional values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.

Unit: ha protected

Strict PAs 52,564,000
Non-strict PAs 82,447,000
IPLs 203,579,000

Unit: ha protected

Strict PAs 30,242,000
Non-strict PAs 51,033,000
IPLs 90,973,000

Unit: ha protected

Strict PAs 31,949,000
Non-strict PAs 83,745,000
IPLs 177,301,000

Unit: ha protected

Strict PAs 56,233,000
Non-strict PAs 166,356,000
IPLs 359,997,000

Unit: ha protected

Strict PAs 170,988,000
Non-strict PAs 383,581,000
IPLs 831,850,000
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Adoption Trend

We calculated the annual rate of new grassland protection based on the year of PA establishment for areas established in 2000–2020. The median annual increase in grassland protection was 8.1 Mha (mean 11.4 Mha; Table 4e). This represents a roughly 1.5%/yr increase in grasslands within PAs, or protection of an additional 0.3%/yr of total global grasslands. Grassland protection has proceeded more quickly in tropical regions (median increase of 4.0 Mha/yr) than in other climate zones (median increases of 1.2–1.6 Mha/yr) (Table 4a–d). 

Table 4a–e. Adoption trend for grassland protection in PAs of any IUCN class (2000–2020). The 25th and 75th percentiles reflect only interannual variance (ha grassland protected/yr). IPLs are not included in this analysis due to a lack of data.

Unit: ha grassland protected/yr

25th percentile 659,000
Median (50th percentile) 1,338,000
Mean 2,152,000
75th percentile 3,007,000

Unit: ha grassland protected/yr

25th percentile 692,000
Median (50th percentile) 1,178,000
Mean 1,728,000
75th percentile 1,715,000

Unit: ha grassland protected/yr

25th percentile 940,000
Median (50th percentile) 1,580,000
Mean 2,791,000
75th percentile 3,226,000

Unit: ha grassland protected/yr

25th percentile 2,628,000
Median (50th percentile) 4,044,000
Mean 4,711,000
75th percentile 5,774,000

Unit: ha grassland protected/yr

25th percentile 4,919,000
Median (50th percentile) 8,140,000
Mean 11,382,000
75th percentile 13,722,000
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Figure 1. Trend in grassland protection by climate zone (2000-2020) in terms of total hectares protected (left) and the percent of the current adoption ceiling protected (right). These values reflect only the area located within PA. Grasslands located in IPLs, which were not included in the calculation of the adoption trend due to a lack of data, are excluded. Data from Project Drawdown.

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Adoption Ceiling

Including grasslands that are currently protected, we estimated that there are approximately 2,891 Mha of natural grasslands that are not counted in a different solution (Table 5e). This ceiling includes 1,505 Mha that are not currently under any form of protection. This includes 533 Mha of eligible grasslands in boreal regions, 723 Mha in temperate regions, 626 Mha in the subtropics, and 1,008 Mha in the tropics (Table 5a–d). 

To develop these estimates, we relied on the global grassland map from Parente et al. (2024), excluded areas that were included in the Protect Forests, Protect Peatlands, and Protect Coastal Wetlands solutions, and excluded areas that were historically forested according to the Terrestrial Ecoregions of The World dataset (Olson et al., 2001; Appendix). While it is not socially, politically, or economically realistic that all remaining grasslands could be protected, these values represent the technical upper limit to adoption of this solution.

Table 5a–e. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption of legal protection of grasslands by biome. Values may not sum to global totals due to rounding. 

Unit: ha protected

Estimate 533,033,000

Unit: ha protected

Estimate 723,429,000

Unit: ha protected

Estimate 626,474,000

Unit: ha protected

Estimate 1,008,375,000

Unit: ha protected

Estimate 2,891,311,000
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Achievable Adoption

We assigned a low achievable level of a minimum of 50% of grasslands in each climate zone (Table 6a–e). For boreal and tropical regions, in which 64% and 58%, respectively, of grasslands are already protected, we assumed no change in the area under protection (Table 6a, d). For temperate areas, the low achievable target reflects an increase of 189 Mha, or more than a doubling of the current PA extent (Table 6b). In subtropical zones, this target reflects an additional 20 Mha under protection (Table 6c). We assigned a high achievable level of 70% of grasslands in each climate zone, reflecting an additional 637 Mha of protected grasslands globally, or a 46% increase in the current PA extent (Table 6a–e).

Table 6a–e. Range of achievable adoption of grassland protection by biome.

Unit: ha protected

Current adoption 338,590,000
Achievable – low 338,590,000
Achievable – high 373,123,000
Adoption ceiling 533,033,000

Unit: ha protected

Current adoption 172,248,000
Achievable – low 361,715,000
Achievable – high 506,400,000
Adoption ceiling 723,429,000

Unit: ha protected

Current adoption 292,995,000
Achievable – low 313,237,000
Achievable – high 438,532,000
Adoption ceiling 626,474,000

Unit: ha protected

Current adoption 582,586,000
Achievable – low 582,586,000
Achievable – high 705,863,000
Adoption ceiling 1,008,375,000

Unit: ha protected

Current adoption 1,386,419,000
Achievable – low 1,596,128,000
Achievable – high 2,023,918,000
Adoption ceiling 2,891,311,000
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We estimated that PAs currently reduce GHG emissions from grassland conversion by 0.468 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 7a–e). Achievable levels of grassland protection have the potential to reduce emissions 0.572–0.704 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, with a technical upper bound of 1.006 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 7a–e). This indicates that further emissions reductions of 0.105–0.237 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr are achievable. For these benefits to be realized, grazing, fire, and woody plant management must be responsive to local grassland needs and compatible with the maintenance of carbon stocks. The solutions Improve Livestock Grazing and Deploy Silvopasture address the climate impacts of some aspects of grassland management.

Few other sources explicitly quantify the climate impacts of grassland protection, but the available data are roughly aligned with our estimates of additional mitigation potential. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that avoided conversion of grasslands to croplands could reduce emissions by 0.03–0.7 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Nabuurs et al., 2022). Griscom et al. (2017) estimated that avoided grassland conversion could save 0.12 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr emissions from soil carbon only (not counting loss of vegetation, sequestration potential, or nitrous oxide), though their analysis did not account for current protection and relied on older estimates of grassland conversion. 

Table 7a–e. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis

Current adoption 0.305
Achievable – low 0.305
Achievable – high 0.336
Adoption ceiling 0.481

Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis

Current adoption 0.093
Achievable – low 0.195
Achievable – high 0.273
Adoption ceiling 0.390

Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis

Current adoption 0.037
Achievable – low 0.039
Achievable – high 0.055
Adoption ceiling 0.078

Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis

Current adoption 0.033
Achievable – low 0.033
Achievable – high 0.040
Adoption ceiling 0.057

Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis

Current adoption 0.468
Achievable – low 0.572
Achievable – high 0.704
Adoption ceiling 1.006
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Additional Benefits

Floods

Grassland plants often have deep root systems, leading to high soil carbon stocks (Sloat et al., 2025). These roots can absorb water and reduce discharge into surrounding water bodies during periods of excessive rain (GRaSS, 2024).

Droughts

Different grassland plant species respond differently to drought. Variations in precipitation seasonality due to drought may allow some grass species to dominate over others (Knapp et al., 2020). Evidence suggests that higher species diversity can enhance grassland resilience to drought (Smith et al., 2024; Yu et al., 2025).  Additionally, the deep root systems of grassland plants contribute to the drought resilience of these ecosystems (Sloat et al., 2025). More resilient, biodiverse grasslands are associated with greater ecosystem stability and productivity, and can maintain ecosystem services during periods of extreme weather, such as drought (Isbell et al, 2015; Lefcheck et al., 2015).

Income and Work

Grasslands are an important source of income for surrounding communities through tourism and other ecosystem services (Bengtsson et al., 2019). Protecting grasslands sustains the long-term health of the ecosystem, which is especially important for subsistence livelihoods that depend on intact landscapes for incomes (Pelser, 2015). Sources of income that are directly generated from grasslands include: meat, milk, wool, and leather and thatching materials to make brooms, hats, and baskets (GRaSS, 2024; Pelser, 2015). People living near grasslands often rely on grazing livestock for food and income (GRaSS, 2024, Kemp 2013, Su et al., 2019). Grasslands in China support the livelihoods of about 16 million people, many of whom live in poverty (Kemp et al., 2013). The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is especially important for grazing livestock (Su et al., 2019). Evidence has shown that declines in grassland productivity are also linked to declines in income (Kemp et al., 2013).

Food Security

Grasslands can contribute to food security by providing food for livestock and supporting pollinators for nearby agriculture (Sloat et al., 2025). Grassland-based grazing systems are important sources of food for populations in low and middle-income countries, particularly in Oceania, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa (Resare Sahlin et al., 2023). Grasslands can support the food security of smallholder farmers and pastoralists in these regions by providing meat and milk (GRaSS, 2024; Michalk, 2018). 

Equality

Grasslands are central to many cultures, and grassland protection can support shared cultural and spiritual values for many populations. They can be sources of identity for people living in or near grassland ecosystems who have strong connections with the land (Bengtsson et al., 2019, GRaSS, 2024). In Mongolia, for example, grasslands sustain horses, which are central to the cultural identities and livelihoods of communities, particularly nomadic populations (Kemp et al., 2014). Grasslands can also be an important source of shared identity for pastoralists who move herds to graze based on seasonal cycles during the year (Liechti & Biber, 2016).

Nature Protection

Many grasslands are biodiversity hot spots (Petermann & Buzhdygan, 2021; Su et al., 2019). Numerous plant and animal species are endemic to grasslands, meaning they have limited habitat ranges and can easily become endangered with habitat degradation (Sloat et al., 2025). In Germany, grasslands in PAs were found to have higher plant diversity than in non-PAs (Kachler et al., 2023). Grasslands are important habitats for bird species that rely on them for breeding grounds (GRaSS, 2024; Nugent et al., 2022).

Land Resources

The unique, deep root structures of some grassland plants can improve soil stability and reduce soil erosion (Bengtsson et al., 2019; GRaSS, 2024; Kemp et al., 2013).

Water Resources

Grasslands can regulate water flows and water storage. The root systems can help rainwater reach deep underground, recharging groundwater stores (Bengtsson et al., 2019; GRaSS, 2024).

Risks

Relying on grassland protection as an emissions reduction strategy can be undermined if ecosystem conversion that is not allowed inside a PA simply takes place outside of it instead (Aherling et al., 2016; Asamoah et al., 2021). If such leakage leads to conversion of ecosystems that have higher carbon stocks, such as forests, peatlands, or coastal wetlands, total emissions may increase. Combining grassland protection with policies to reduce incentives for ecosystem conversion can help avoid leakage.

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

PAs often include multiple ecosystems. Grassland protection will likely lead to protection of other ecosystems within the same areas, and the health of nearby ecosystems is improved by the services provided by intact grasslands. 

Restored grasslands need protection to reduce the risk of future disturbance, and the health of protected grasslands can be improved through the restoration of adjacent degraded grasslands.

Competing

Protecting grasslands & savannas could limit land availability for renewable energy technologies and raw material and food production and therefore competes with the following solutions for land:

Dashboard

Solution Basics

ha of grassland or savanna protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.9
units
Current 3.386×10⁸ 03.386×10⁸3.731×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.305 0.3050.336
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-2
Emergency Brake

CO₂,  N₂O

Solution Basics

ha of grassland or savanna protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.54
units
Current 1.722×10⁸ 03.617×10⁸5.064×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.093 0.1950.273
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-2
Emergency Brake

CO₂,  N₂O

Solution Basics

ha of grassland or savanna protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.13
units
Current 2.93×10⁸ 03.132×10⁸4.385×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.037 0.0390.055
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-2
Emergency Brake

CO₂,  N₂O

Solution Basics

ha of grassland or savanna protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.06
units
Current 5.826×10⁸ 05.826×10⁸7.059×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.033 0.0330.04
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-2
Emergency Brake

CO₂,  N₂O

Trade-offs

Establishment of PAs may limit local access to grasslands for grazing or other forms of income generation, although effective management plans should account for the grazing needs of the protected grassland. Second, allocation of budgetary resources to PA establishment may divert resources from maintenance and enforcement of existing PAs. Finally, protection of grasslands may reduce land availability for renewable energy infrastructure, such as solar and wind power.

Action Word
Protect
Solution Title
Grasslands & Savannas
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set scalable targets (across both biogeographic and administrative levels) for grassland protections, including outcomes-based reporting, indicators for the rate of progress, goals for inclusivity, and measurements for enforcement efficacy; incorporate these targets into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Ensure public procurement uses products and supply chains that do not disrupt PAs and grasslands; ensure public development projects do not disturb PAs and grasslands.
  • Grant Indigenous communities full property rights and autonomy and support them in monitoring, managing, and enforcing PAs; adhere to principles of free, prior, and informed consent when engaging with Indigenous communities and lands.
  • Manage fire, biodiversity, and grazing in protected grasslands in accordance with ecological needs, learning from and working with Indigenous communities.
  • Ensure PAs don’t displace, violate rights, or reduce access to vital resources for local and Indigenous communities.
  • Expand regulatory, legal, and technical support for privately protected grasslands.
  • When expanding PAs, acquire relevant adjacent properties first, if possible, to increase connectivity and reduce costs; grant restored grasslands protected status.
  • Invest in PA infrastructure, monitoring, management, and enforcement mechanisms.
  • Ban or restrict overgrazing and extractive harvesting while allowing for sustainable use of PAs from Indigenous and local communities; compensate herders for lost grazing lands, if necessary.
  • Ensure PAs are adequately financed and, if applicable, provide financing for low- and middle-income countries and communities for grassland protections.
  • Ensure incentives and/or compensation for reducing livestock or protecting grasslands are evenly distributed with particular attention to low- and middle-income farmers and communities.
  • Use financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, payments for ecosystem services (PES), and debt-for-nature swaps to protect grasslands from development.
  • Remove harmful subsidies for agricultural, grazing, mining, and other resource extraction.
  • Use comanagement, community-governed, land-trust, and/or privately protected models to expand PAs, increase connectivity, and engage communities; ensure a participatory approach to designating and managing PAs.
  • Use real-time monitoring, ground-level sensors, and satellite data to enforce protections, ensuring adequate baseline data are gathered if possible.
  • Ensure budgets adequately split financing between expanding PAs and managing PAs; prioritize quality management of existing PAs before expanding new designations except in cases where nonprotected land conversion presents the most serious risks to people, the climate, or biodiversity.
  • Conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid roads and other development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize development.
  • Create processes for legal grievances, dispute resolution, and restitution.
  • Create programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use grassland resources sustainably.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Set scalable targets (across both biogeographic and administrative levels) for grassland protection, including outcomes-based reporting, indicators for the rate of progress, goals for inclusivity, and measurements for enforcement efficacy; advocate to incorporate these targets into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Improve monitoring and evaluation standards for grassland ecologies and the impacts from animal agriculture.
  • Ensure incentives and/or compensation for reducing livestock or protecting grasslands are evenly distributed with particular attention to low- and middle-income farmers and communities.
  • Ensure PAs are adequately financed and, if applicable, provide financing for low- and middle-income countries and communities for grassland protections.
  • When expanding PAs, acquire relevant adjacent properties first, if possible, to increase connectivity and reduce costs.
  • Use financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, PES, and debt-for-nature swaps to protect grasslands from development.
  • Empower local communities to manage grasslands and ensure a participatory approach to designating and managing PAs.
  • Use comanagement, community-governed, land-trust, and/or privately-protected models to expand PAs, increase connectivity, and engage communities.
  • Ban or restrict overgrazing and extractive harvesting while allowing sustainable use of PAs by Indigenous and local communities; compensate herders for lost grazing lands if necessary.
  • Use real-time monitoring, ground-level sensors, and satellite data to enforce protections, ensuring adequate baseline data are gathered if possible.
  • Ensure budgets adequately split financing between expanding PAs and managing PAs; prioritize quality management of existing PAs before expanding new designations - except in cases where non-protected land conversion presents the most serious risk to people, the climate, or biodiversity.
  • Create education programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use grassland resources sustainably.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Ensure operations, development, and supply chains are not degrading grasslands or interfering with PA management.
  • Integrate grassland protection into net-zero strategies, if relevant.
  • Commit and adhere to minimizing irrecoverable carbon loss through development projects, supply-chain management, and general operations.
  • Help revise existing or create new high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Only purchase carbon credits from high-integrity, verifiable carbon markets, and do not use them as replacements for decarbonizing operations or claim them as “offsets.”
  • Consider donating to established grassland protection funds in place of carbon credits.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and PES to grasslands from development.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for management, legal protection, and public relations.
  • Leverage political influence to advocate for stronger grassland protection policies at national and international levels.
  • Conduct proactive land use planning to avoid roads and other development projects that may interfere with PAs.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Advocate for enhanced enforcement of existing PAs and IPLs, expansion of new PAs and IPLs, and for more public investments.
  • Advocate for scalable targets (across both biogeographic and administrative levels) for grassland protections, including outcomes-based reporting, indicators for the rate of progress, goals for inclusivity, and measurements for enforcement efficacy; advocate for these goals to be incorporated into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Help manage and monitor protected grasslands using real-time monitoring, ground-based sensors, and satellite data.
  • Provide financial support for monitoring and enforcement of PAs and IPLs.
  • Help conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected grasslands or incentivize destruction.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over PAs or IPLs.
  • Help revise existing or create new high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support the capacity of Indigenous and local communities for management, legal protection, and public relations.
  • Use or advocate for financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and PES to protect grasslands from development.
  • Improve monitoring and evaluation standards for grassland ecologies and the impacts from animal agriculture.
  • Help classify and map grasslands, carbon stocks, and biodiversity data and create local, national, and international standards for classification.
  • Work with insurance companies to reduce insurance premiums for properties that protect or maintain grasslands.
  • Create and manage a global database of protected grasslands, grassland loss, restoration, and management initiatives.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.
  • Create programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use grassland resources sustainably.

Further information:

Investors
  • Ensure investment portfolios do not degrade grasslands or interfere with PAs or IPLs, using data, information, and the latest technology to inform investments.
  • Consider any project that releases irrecoverable carbon loss through the destruction of ecosystems like grasslands to be high risk, avoid investments in these projects as much as possible, and divest from any companies violating this principle.
  • Invest in grassland protection, monitoring, management, and enforcement mechanisms.
  • Use financial mechanisms such as credible biodiversity offsets, payments for ecosystem services, voluntary high-integrity carbon markets, and debt-for-nature swaps to fund grassland protection.
  • Invest in and support the capacity of Indigenous and local communities for management, legal protection, and public relations.
  • Share with other investors and nongovernmental organizations data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid investments that drive grassland destruction.
  • Provide favorable loans to Indigenous communities and entrepreneurs and businesses protecting grasslands.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Advocate for enhanced enforcement of existing PAs and IPLs, expansion of new PAs and IPLs, and more public investments.
  • Advocate for scalable targets (across both biogeographic and administrative levels) for grassland protections, including outcomes-based reporting, indicators for the rate of progress, goals for inclusivity, and measurements for enforcement efficacy; advocate for these goals to be incorporated into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Use or advocate for financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and PES to protect grasslands from development.
  • Help manage and monitor protected grassland, using real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Provide technical assistance to low- and middle-income countries and communities for grasslands protection.
  • Provide financial assistance to low- and middle-income countries and communities for grasslands protection.
  • Provide financial support to organizations and institutions developing and deploying monitoring technology and conducting grassland research.
  • Help conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected grasslands or incentivize destruction.
  • Help revise existing or create new high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for management, legal protection, and public relations.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over PAs or IPLs.
  • Help classify and map grasslands, carbon stocks, and biodiversity data and create local, national, and international standards for classification.
  • Work with insurance companies to reduce insurance premiums for properties that protect or maintain grasslands.
  • Create and manage a global database of protected grasslands, grassland loss, restoration, and management initiatives.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.
  • Create education programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use grassland resources sustainably.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Help change the narrative around grasslands by highlighting their value and benefits such as supporting human life, biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and climate regulation.
  • Advocate for enhanced enforcement of existing PAs and IPLs, expansion of new PAs and IPLs, and public investments.
  • Advocate for scalable targets (across both biogeographic and administrative levels) for grassland protections, including outcomes-based reporting, indicators for the rate of progress, goals for inclusivity, and measurements for enforcement efficacy; advocate for these to be incorporated into national climate plans and multilateral agreements.
  • Advocate for or use financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, PES, and debt-for-nature swaps to protect grasslands from development.
  • Help manage and monitor protected grasslands using real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Help conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected grasslands or incentivize conversion.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over PAs or IPLs.
  • Help improve monitoring and evaluation standards for grassland ecologies and impacts from animal agriculture.
  • Help revise existing or create new high-integrity carbon and biodiversity markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection, management, and public relations.
  • Help classify and map grasslands, carbon stocks, and biodiversity data and create local, national, and international standards for classification.
  • Create and manage a global database of protected grasslands, grassland loss, restoration, and management initiatives.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.
  • Create programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use grassland resources sustainably.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Develop standardized indicators of grassland degradation.
  • Research the ecological interactions of grasslands with other ecosystems; share data widely and include recommendations for coordinated action.
  • Assess and publish costs of PA designation, management, and evaluation.
  • Conduct comparative analysis on different types of governance models for PAs to determine impacts on climate, biodiversity, and human well-being.
  • Examine the relationship between geography and governance structures of private PAs, looking for spatial patterns and roles of various stakeholders such NGOs, businesses, and private landowners.
  • Study behavioral change mechanisms that can increase effectiveness and enforcement of PAs.
  • Improve monitoring methods using field measurements, models, satellite imagery, and GIS tools.
  • Create or improve on existing software tools that allow for dynamic planning and management of PAs by monitoring impacts on local communities, the climate, and biodiversity.
  • Create local research sites to support PAs and provide technical assistance.
  • Create tools for local communities to monitor grasslands, such as mobile apps, e-learning platforms, and mapping tools.
  • Develop supply chain tracking software for investors and businesses seeking to create sustainable portfolios and products.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Avoid developing intact grasslands and adhere to sustainable use guidelines of PAs.
  • Participate or volunteer in local grassland protection efforts; use or advocate for comanagement, community-governed, land-trust, and/or privately protected models to expand PAs, increase connectivity, and allow for continued community engagement.
  • Help manage and monitor protected grasslands using real-time monitoring and satellite data.
  • Establish coordinating bodies for farmers, herders, developers, landowners, policymakers, and other stakeholders to holistically manage PAs.
  • Advocate for enhanced enforcement of existing PAs and IPLs, expansion of new PAs and IPLs, and public investments.
  • Help conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with protected grasslands or incentivize destruction.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over PAs or IPLs.
  • Help revise existing or create new high-integrity carbon and biodiversity markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Support Indigenous communities' capacity for management, legal protection and public relations.
  • Use or advocate for financial incentives such as subsidies, tax breaks, and PES to protect grasslands from development.
  • Help classify and map grasslands and create local, national, and international standards for classification.
  • Ensure PAs don’t displace, violate rights, or reduce access to vital resources for local and Indigenous communities.
  • Work with insurance companies to reduce insurance premiums for properties that protect or maintain grasslands.
  • Plant native species to help improve the local ecological balance and stabilize the soil, especially on property adjacent to PAs.
  • Use nontoxic cleaning and gardening supplies, purchase unbleached paper products, and recycle to help keep pollution and debris out of grasslands.
  • Join, support, or create certification and independent audit schemes to monitor effectiveness and identify necessary improvements in management.
  • Create programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use grassland resources sustainably.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing emissions and maintaining carbon removal: High

There is high scientific consensus that grassland protection reduces emissions by reducing conversion of grasslands. Grasslands have been extensively converted globally because of their utility for agricultural use, and many extant grasslands are at high risk of conversion (Carbutt et al., 2017; Gang et al., 2014). Li et al. (2024) found that PAs prevent conversion of approximately 0.35% of global grasslands per year. Although grasslands remain understudied relative to some other ecosystems, there is robust evidence that PAs and IPLs reduce forest conversion, with estimates in different regions ranging from 17–75% reductions in forest loss relative to unprotected areas (Baragwanth & Bayi, 2020; Graham et al., 2021; McNichol et al., 2023; Sze et al., 2022; Wolf et al., 2022). Additional research specific to grasslands on the effectiveness of PAs and IPLs at preventing land use change would be valuable. 

Conversion of grasslands to croplands produces emissions through the loss of soil carbon and biomass (IPCC, 2019). A recent meta-analysis based on 5,980 soil carbon measurements found that grassland conversion to croplands reduces soil carbon stocks by a global average of 23%, or almost 30 t CO₂ /ha (Huang et al., 2024), before accounting for nitrous oxide emissions (IPCC, 2019), loss of biomass carbon stocks (Spawn et al., 2020), and loss of sequestration potential (Chang et al., 2021).

Regional studies also find that grassland protection provides emissions savings. For instance, a study of grasslands in Argentina and the United States found that conversion to croplands reduced total carbon stocks, including soil and biomass, by 117 t CO₂‑eq /ha (Kim et al., 2016). Ahlering et al. (2016) conclude that protecting just 210,000 ha of unprotected grasslands in the U.S. Northern Great Plains would avoid 11.7 Mt CO₂‑eq over 20 years, with emissions savings of 51.6 t CO₂‑eq /ha protected, or 35.6 t CO₂‑eq /ha after accounting for leakage and uncertainty. 

The quantitative results presented in this assessment synthesize findings from 13 global datasets supplemented by three meta-analyses with global scopes. We recognize that geographic bias in the information underlying global data products creates bias and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Appendix

This analysis quantifies the emissions avoidable through legal protection of grasslands via establishment of PAs or land tenure for Indigenous peoples. We leveraged a global grassland distribution map alongside other ecosystem distribution maps, shapefiles of PAs and IPLs, available data on rates of avoided ecosystem loss attributable to PA establishment, maps of grassland carbon stocks in above- and below-ground biomass, and biome-level estimates of soil carbon loss for grasslands converted to croplands. This appendix describes the source data products and how they were integrated. 

Grassland Extent

We relied on the 30-m resolution global map of grassland extent developed by Parente et al. (2024), which classifies both “natural and semi-natural grasslands” and “managed grasslands.” This solution considers only the “natural and semi-natural grasslands” class. We first resampled the data to 1 km resolution by calculating the percent of the pixel occupied by grasslands. To avoid double counting land considered in other ecosystem protection solutions (Protect Forests, Protect Peatlands, and Protect Coastal Wetlands), we then adjusted the grassland map so that no pixel contained a value greater than 100% after summing all ecosystem types. These other ecosystems can overlap with grasslands either because they are non-exclusive (e.g., peatland soils can have grassland vegetation), or because of variable definitions (e.g., the grassland map allows up to 50% tree cover, which could be classified as a forest by other land cover maps). After adjusting for other ecosystems, we used the Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World data (Olson et al., 2001) to exclude areas of natural forest, because these areas are eligible for other solutions. 

The resultant raster of proportionate grassland coverage was converted to absolute areas, and used to calculate the total grassland area for each of four latitude bands (tropical: –23.4° to 23.4°; subtropical: –35° to –23.4° and 23.4° to 35°; temperate: –50° to –35° and 35° to 50°; boreal: <–50° and >50°). The analysis was conducted by latitude bands in order to retain some spatial variability in emissions factors and degradation rates. 

Protected Grassland Areas

We identified protected grassland areas using the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024), which contains boundaries for each PA and additional information, including their establishment year and IUCN management category (Ia–VI, not applicable, not reported, and not assigned). The PA boundary data were converted to a raster and used to calculate the grassland area within PA boundaries for each latitude band and each PA category. To evaluate trends in adoption over time, we also aggregated protected areas by establishment year as reported in the WDPA. 

We used the maps of IPLs from Garnett et al. (2018) to identify IPLs that were not inside of established PAs. The total grassland area within IPLs was calculated according to the same process as for PAs.

Avoided Grassland Conversion

Broadly, we estimated annual, per-hectare emissions savings from grassland protection as the difference between net carbon exchange in a protected grassland and an unprotected grassland. This calculation followed Equation A1, in which the annual grassland loss avoided due to protection (%/yr) is multiplied by the 30-yr cumulative sum of emissions per hectare of grassland converted to cropland (CO₂‑eq /ha over 30 yr). 

Equation A1.

\[ Effectiveness = Grassland\text{ }loss_{avoided} \times \sum_{t=1}^{30}{Emissions} \]

The avoided grassland loss attributable to PAs was calculated from the source data for Figure 7 of Li et al. (2024), which provides the difference in habitat loss between protected areas and unprotected control areas between 2003 and 2019 by ecoregion. These data were filtered to only include grasslands, aggregated to latitude bands, and used to calculate annual linear rates of avoided habitat loss. Tropical and subtropical regions were not clearly distinguished, so the same rate was used for both.

Grassland Conversion Emissions

The emissions associated with grassland conversion to cropland include loss of above- and below-ground biomass carbon stocks, loss of soil carbon stocks, and loss of carbon sequestration potential. We used data on above- and below-ground biomass carbon stocks from Spawn et al. (2020) to calculate the average carbon stocks by latitude band for grassland pixels and cropland pixels. We used the 2010 European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI, 2019) land cover dataset for this calculation because it was the base map used to generate the biomass carbon stock dataset. The per-hectare difference between biomass carbon stocks in grasslands and croplands represents the emissions from biomass carbon stocks following grassland conversion.

We aggregated soil carbon stocks from SoilGrids 2.0 (0–30 cm depth) to latitude bands for grassland pixels from the 2015 ESA CCI land cover dataset, which was the base map used for the SoilGrids dataset (Poggio et al., 2021). To avoid capturing peatlands, which have higher carbon stocks, we excluded pixels with soil carbon contents >15% by mass (a slightly conservative cutoff for organic soils) prior to aggregation. We took the percent loss of soil carbon following grassland-to-cropland conversion from Table S8 of the meta-analysis by Huang et al. (2024), who also conducted their analysis by latitude band. Soil carbon losses are also associated with nitrous oxide emissions, which were calculated per the IPCC Tier 1 equations as follows using the default carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of 15:1. 

We calculated the loss of carbon sequestration potential based on estimates of grassland annual net CO₂ flux, extracted from Table S2 from Chang et al. (2021). These data include field- and model-based measurements of grassland net CO₂ flux and were used to calculate median values by latitude band.

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
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Protect Forests

Sector
FALO & Nature-Based Carbon Removal
Mode
Cut Emissions Remove Carbon
Cluster
Protect & Manage Ecosystems
Image
Fog sitting among trees of a dense forest canopy
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Key Takeaways

  • Forests store a huge amount of carbon in vegetation and soils, much of which is released when trees are cut.
  • On average, more than 16 million ha of forest are cleared each year, producing 7 Gt CO₂‑eq of GHGs.
  • At a high achievable adoption level, protecting forests could prevent the release of 3.62 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, making it one of the most powerful nature-based climate solutions available.
  • Protecting forests also has huge benefits for biodiversity, local cooling, water quality, human health, food provisioning, tourism income for local communities, and cultural and recreational value.
Summary

We define the Protect Forests solution as the long-term protection of tree-dominated ecosystems through establishment of protected areas (PAs), managed with the primary goal of conserving nature, and land tenure for Indigenous peoples. These protections reduce forest degradation, avoiding GHG emissions and ensuring continued carbon sequestration by healthy forests. This solution addresses protection of forests on mineral soils. The Protect Peatlands and Protect Coastal Wetlands solutions address protection of forested peatlands and mangrove forests, respectively, and the Restore Forests solution addresses restoring degraded forests.

Heat stress,Extreme weather events
Income & work,Food security,Health,Equality
Water quality
Description for Social and Search
Protect Forests is a Highly Recommended climate solution. Forest protection ensures that intact forests stay standing, avoiding GHG emissions, maintaining their ability to absorb carbon, and providing numerous other environmental benefits.
Overview

Forests store carbon in biomass and soils and serve as carbon sinks, taking up an estimated 12.8 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr  (including mangroves and forested peatlands; Pan et al., 2024). Carbon stored in forests is released into the atmosphere through deforestation and degradation, which refer to forest clearing or reductions in ecosystem integrity from human influence (DellaSala et al., 2025). Humans cleared an average of 0.4% (16.3 Mha) of global forest area annually from 2001–2019 (excluding wildfire but including mangroves and forested peatlands; Hansen et al., 2013, updated 2024). This produced a gross flux of 7.4 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Harris et al., 2021), equivalent to ~14% of total global GHG emissions over that period (Dhakal et al., 2022). Different forest types store varying amounts of carbon and experience different rates of clearing; in this analysis, we individually evaluate forest protection in boreal, temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions. We included woodlands in our definition of forests because they are not differentiated in the satellite-based data used in this analysis.

We consider forests to be protected if they 1) are formally designated as protected areas (PAs) (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024), or 2) are mapped as Indigenous peoples’ lands in the global study by Garnett et al. (2018). The International Union for Conservation of Nature defines PAs as areas managed primarily for the long-term conservation of nature and ecosystem services. They are disaggregated into six levels of protection, ranging from strict wilderness preserves to sustainable-use areas that allow for some natural resource extraction, including logging. We included all levels of protection in this analysis, primarily because not all PAs have been classified into these categories. We rely on existing maps of Indigenous peoples’ lands but emphasize that much of their extent has not been fully mapped nor recognized for its conservation benefits (Garnett et al., 2018). Innovative and equity-driven strategies for forest protection that recognize the land rights, sovereignty, and stewardship of Indigenous peoples and local communities are critical for achieving just and effective forest protection globally (Dawson et al., 2024; Fa et al., 2020; FAO, 2024; Garnett et al., 2018; Tran et al., 2020; Zafra-Calvo et al., 2017).

Indigenous peoples’ lands and PAs reduce, but do not eliminate, forest clearing relative to unprotected areas (Baragwanath et al., 2020; Blackman & Viet 2018; Li et al., 2024; McNicol et al., 2023; Sze et al. 2022; Wolf et al., 2023; Wade et al., 2020). We rely on estimates of how effective PA are currently for this analysis but highlight that improving management to further reduce land use change within PAs is a critical component of forest protection (Jones et al., 2018; Meng et al., 2023; Vijay et al., 2018; Visconti et al., 2019; Watson et al., 2014).

Market-based strategies and other policies can complement legal protections by increasing the value of intact forests and reducing incentives for clearing (e.g., Garett et al., 2019; Golub et al., 2021; Heilmayr et al., 2020; Lambin et al., 2018; Levy et al., 2023; Macdonald et al., 2024; Marin et al., 2022; Villoria et al., 2022; West et al., 2023). The estimates in this report are based on legal protection alone because the effectiveness of market-based strategies is difficult to quantify, but strategies such as sustainable commodities programs, reducing or redirecting agricultural subsidies, and strategic infrastructure planning will be further discussed in a future update. 

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West, T. A. P., Wunder, S., Sills, E. O., Börner, J., Rifai, S. W., Neidermeier, A. N., Frey, G. P., & Kontoleon, A. (2023). Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science, 381(6660), 873–877. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade3535

Wolf, C., Levi, T., Ripple, W. J., Zárrate-Charry, D. A., & Betts, M. G. (2021). A forest loss report card for the world’s protected areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 5(4), 520–529. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01389-0

Zafra-Calvo, N., Pascual, U., Brockington, D., Coolsaet, B., Cortes-Vazquez, J. A., Gross-Camp, N., Palomo, I., & Burgess, N. D. (2017). Towards an indicator system to assess equitable management in protected areas. Biological Conservation, 211, 134–141. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.05.014

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Avery Driscoll

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D. 

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

  • Ted Otte

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

  • Paul C. West, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

We estimated that one ha of forest protection provides total carbon benefits of 0.299–2.204 t CO₂‑eq/yr depending on the biome (Table 1a–d; Appendix). This effectiveness estimate includes avoided emissions and preserved sequestration capacity attributable to the reduction in forest loss conferred by protection (Equation 1). First, we calculated the difference between the rate of human-caused forest loss outside of PAs (Forest lossbaseline) and the rate inside of PAs (Forest lossprotected). We then multiplied the annual rate of avoided forest loss by the sum of the carbon stored in one hectare of forest (Carbonstock) and the amount of carbon that one hectare of intact forest takes up over a 30-yr timeframe (Carbonsequestration).

Equation 1.

\[ Effectiveness = (Forest\text{ }loss_{baseline} - Forest\text{ }loss_{protected})\times(Carbon_{stock} + Carbon_{sequestration}) \]

Each of these factors varies across biomes. Based on our definition, for instance, the effectiveness of forest protection in boreal forests is lower than that in tropical and subtropical forests primarily because the former face lower rates of human-caused forest loss (though greater wildfire impacts). Importantly, the effectiveness of forest protection as defined here reflects only a small percentage of the carbon stored (394 t CO₂‑eq ) and absorbed (4.25 t CO₂‑eq/yr ) per hectare of forest (Harris et al., 2021). This is because humans clear ~0.4% of forest area annually, and forest protection is estimated to reduce human-caused forest loss by an average of 40.5% (Curtis et al., 2018; Wolf et al., 2023). 

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions and sequestering carbon, with carbon sequestration calculated over a 30-yr time frame. Differences in values between biomes are driven by variation in forest carbon stocks and sequestration rates, baseline rates of forest loss, and effectiveness of PAs at reducing forest loss. See the Appendix for source data and calculation details. Emissions and sequestration values may not sum to total effectiveness due to rounding.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/ha/yr, 100-yr basis

Avoided emissions 0.207
Sequestration 0.091
Total effectiveness 0.299

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/ha/yr, 100-yr basis

Avoided emissions 0.832
Sequestration 0.572
Total effectiveness 1.403

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/ha/yr, 100-yr basis

Avoided emissions 1.860
Sequestration 0.344
Total effectiveness 2.204

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/ha/yr, 100-yr basis

Avoided emissions 1.190
Sequestration 0.300
Total effectiveness 1.489
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Cost

We estimated that forest protection costs approximately US$2/t CO₂‑eq (Table 2). Data related to the costs of forest protection are limited, and these estimates are uncertain. The costs of forest protection include up-front costs of land acquisition and ongoing costs of management and enforcement. The market price of land reflects the opportunity cost of not using the land for other purposes (e.g., agriculture or logging). Protecting forests also generates revenue, notably through increased tourism. Costs and revenues vary across regions, depending on the costs of land and enforcement and potential for tourism. 

The cost of land acquisition for ecosystem protection was estimated by Dienerstein et al. (2024), who found a median cost of US$988/ha (range: US$59–6,616/ha), which we amortized over 30 years. Costs of PA maintenance were estimated at US$9–17/ha/yr (Bruner et al., 2004; Waldron et al., 2020). These estimates reflect the costs of effective enforcement and management, but many existing PAs do not have adequate funds for effective enforcement (Adams et al., 2019; Barnes et al., 2018; Burner et al., 2004). Tourism revenues directly attributable to forest protection were estimated to be US$43/ha/yr (Waldron et al., 2020), not including downstream revenues from industries that benefit from increased tourism. Inclusion of a tourism multiplier would substantially increase the estimated economic benefits of forest protection.

Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq, 100-yr basis

Median 2
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

A learning curve is defined here as falling costs with increased adoption. The costs of forest protection do not fall with increasing adoption, so there is no learning curve for this solution.

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Protect Forests is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It has the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than gradual and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.

Caveats

Additionality, or the degree to which emissions reductions are above and beyond a baseline, is a key caveat for emissions avoided through forest protection (e.g., Fuller et al., 2020; Ruseva et al., 2017). Emissions avoided via forest protection are only considered additional if that forest would have been cleared or degraded without protection (Delacote et al., 2022; Delacote et al., 2024; Gallemore et al., 2020). In this analysis, additionality is addressed by using baseline rates of forest loss outside of PAs in the effectiveness calculation. Additionality is particularly important when forest protection is used to generate carbon offsets. However, the likelihood of forest removal in the absence of protection is often difficult to determine at the local level.

Permanence, or the durability of stored carbon over long timescales, is another important consideration not directly addressed in this solution. Carbon stored in forests can be compromised by natural factors, like drought, heat, flooding, wildfire, pests, and diseases, which are further exacerbated by climate change (Anderegg et al., 2020; Dye et al., 2024). Forest losses via wildfire in particular can create very large pulses of emissions (e.g., Kolden et al. 2024; Phillips et al. 2022) that negate accumulated carbon benefits of forest protection. Reversal of legal protections, illegal forest clearing, biodiversity loss, edge effects from roads, and disturbance from permitted uses can also cause forest losses directly or reduce ecosystem integrity, further increasing vulnerability to other stressors (McCallister et al., 2022).

Current Adoption

We estimated that approximately 1,673 Mha of forests are currently recognized as PAs or Indigenous peoples’ lands (Table 3e; Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). Using two different maps of global forests that differ in their methodologies and definitions (ESA CCI, 2019; Hansen et al., 2013), we found an upper-end estimate of 1,943 Mha protected and a lower-end estimate of 1,404 Mha protected. These two maps classify forests using different thresholds for canopy cover and vegetation height, different satellite data, and different classification algorithms (see the Appendix for details). 

Based on our calculations, tropical forests make up the majority of forested PAs, with approximately 936 Mha under protection (Table 3d), followed by boreal forests (467 Mha, Table 3a), temperate forests (159 Mha, Table 3b), and subtropical forests (112 Mha, Table 3c). We estimate that 49% of all forests have some legal protection, though only 7% of forests are under strict protection (IUCN class I or II), with the remaining area protected under other IUCN levels, as OECMs, or as Indigenous peoples’ lands.

Table 3. Current (circa 2023) forest and woodland area under legal protection by biome (Mha). The low and high values are calculated using two different maps of global forest cover that differ in methodology for defining a forest (ESA CCI, 2019; Hansen et al., 2013). Biome-level values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.

Unit: Mha

Low 313
Mean 467
High 621

Unit: Mha

Low 135
Mean 159
High 183

Unit: Mha

Low 85
Mean 112
High 138

Unit: Mha

Low 872
Mean 936
High 1,000

Unit: Mha

Low 1,404
Mean 1,673
High 1,943
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Adoption Trend

We calculated the rate of PA expansion based on the year the PA was established. We do not have data on the expansion rate of Indigenous peoples’ lands, so the calculated adoption trend reflects only PAs. An average of 19 Mha of additional forests were protected each year between 2000 and 2020 (Table 4a–e; Figure 1), representing a roughly 2% increase in PAs per year (excluding Indigenous peoples’ lands that are not located in PAs). There were large year-to-year differences in how much new forest area was protected over this period, ranging from only 6.4 Mha in 2020 to over 38 Mha in both 2000 and 2006. Generally, the rate at which forest protection is increasing has been decreasing, with an average increase of 27 Mha/yr between 2000–2010 declining to 11 Mha/yr between 2010–2020. Recent rates of forest protection (2010–2020) are highest in the tropics (5.6 Mha/yr), followed by temperate regions (2.4 Mha/yr) and the boreal (2.0 Mha/yr), and lowest in the subtropics (0.7 Mha/yr).

Figure 1. Trend in forest protection by climate zone. These values reflect only the area located within PAs; Indigenous peoples’ lands, which were not included in the calculation of the adoption trend, are excluded.

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Table 4. 2000–2020 adoption trend.

Unit: Mha protected/yr

25th percentile 1.3
Mean 2.8
Median (50th percentile) 2.0
75th percentile 3.4

Unit: Mha protected/yr

25th percentile 1.9
Mean 2.8
Median (50th percentile) 2.5
75th percentile 3.1

Unit: Mha protected/yr

25th percentile 0.5
Mean 1.0
Median (50th percentile) 0.7
75th percentile 1.1

Unit: Mha protected/yr

25th percentile 5.4
Mean 12.5
Median (50th percentile) 7.7
75th percentile 17.8

Unit: Mha protected/yr

25th percentile 9.1
Mean 19.0
Median (50th percentile) 12.9
75th percentile 25.4
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Adoption Ceiling

We estimated an adoption ceiling of 3,370 Mha of forests globally (Table 5e), defined as all existing forest areas, excluding peatlands and mangroves. Of the calculated adoption ceiling, 469 Mha of boreal forests (Table 5a), 282 Mha of temperate forests (Table 5b), 211 Mha of subtropical forests (Table 5c), and 734 Mha of tropical forests (Table 5d) are currently unprotected. The high and low values represent estimates of currently forested areas from two different maps of forest cover that use different methodologies and definitions (ESA CCI, 2019; Hansen et al., 2013). While it is not socially, politically, or economically realistic that all existing forests could be protected, these values represent the technical upper limit to adoption of this solution. Additionally, some PAs allow for ongoing sustainable use of resources, enabling some demand for wood products to be met via sustainable use of trees in PAs.

Table 5. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: Mha protected

Low 686
Mean 936
High 1,186

Unit: Mha protected

Low 385
Mean 441
High 498

Unit: Mha protected

Low 260
Mean 323
High 385

Unit: Mha protected

Low 1,557
Mean 1,669
High 1,782

Unit: Mha protected

Low 2,889
Mean 3,370
High 3,851
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Achievable Adoption

We defined the lower end of the achievable range for forest protection as all high integrity forests in addition to forests in existing PAs and Indigenous peoples’ lands, totaling 2,297 Mha (Table 6a–e). We estimated that there are 624 Mha of unprotected high integrity forests, based on maps of forest integrity developed by Grantham et al. (2020). High integrity forests have experienced little disturbance from human pressures (i.e., logging, agriculture, and buildings), are located further away from areas of human disturbance, and are well-connected to other forests. High integrity forests are a top priority for protection as they have particularly high value with respect to biodiversity and ecosystem service provisioning. These forests are also not currently being used to meet human demand for land or forest-derived products, and thus their protection may be more feasible. 

To estimate the upper end of the achievable range, we excluded the global areas of planted trees and tree crops from the adoption ceiling (Richter et al., 2024), comprising approximately 335 Mha globally (Table 6a–e). Planted trees include tree stands established for crops such as oil palm, products such as timber and fiber production, and those established as windbreaks or for ecosystem services such as erosion control. These stands are often actively managed and are unlikely to be protected.

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels. 

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 467
Achievable – low 847
Achievable – high 861
Adoption ceiling 936

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 159
Achievable – low 204
Achievable – high 378
Adoption ceiling 441

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 112
Achievable – low 126
Achievable – high 219
Adoption ceiling 323

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 936
Achievable – low 1,120
Achievable – high 1,577
Adoption ceiling 1,669

Unit: Mha protected

Current adoption 1,673
Achievable – low 2,297
Achievable – high 3,035
Adoption ceiling 3,370
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We estimated that forest protection currently avoids approximately 2.00 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, with potential impacts of 2.49 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr at the low-achievable scenario, 3.62 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr  at the high-achievable scenario, and 4.10 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr at the adoption ceiling (Table 7a–e). Although not directly comparable due to the inclusion of different land covers, these values are aligned with Griscom et al. (2017) estimates that forest protection could avoid 3.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr and the IPCC estimate that protection of all ecosystems could avoid 6.2 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Nabuurs et al., 2022).

Note that the four adoption scenarios vary only with respect to the area under protection. Increases in either the rate of forest loss that would have occurred if the area had not been protected or in the effectiveness of PAs at avoiding forest loss would substantially increase the climate impacts of forest protection. For instance, a hypothetical 50% increase in the rate of forest loss outside of PAs would increase the carbon impacts of the current adoption, low achievable, high achievable, and adoption ceiling scenarios to 3.0, 3.7, 5.4, and 6.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, respectively. Similarly, if legal forest protection reduced forest loss twice as much as it currently does, the climate impacts of the four scenarios would increase to 3.9, 4.8, 7.0, and 7.8 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, respectively.

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.14
Achievable – low 0.25
Achievable – high 0.26
Adoption ceiling 0.28

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.22
Achievable – low 0.29
Achievable – high 0.53
Adoption ceiling 0.62

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.25
Achievable – low 0.28
Achievable – high 0.48
Adoption ceiling 0.71

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 1.39
Achievable – low 1.67
Achievable – high 2.35
Adoption ceiling 2.49

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 2.00
Achievable – low 2.49
Achievable – high 3.62
Adoption ceiling 4.10
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Additional Benefits

Heat Stress

See Extreme Weather Events for details. 

Extreme Weather Events

Protected forests are more biodiverse and therefore more resilient and adaptable, providing higher-quality ecosystem services to surrounding communities (Gray et al., 2016). Protected forests can also buffer surrounding areas from the effects of extreme weather events. By increasing plant species richness, forest preservation can contribute to drought and fire tolerance (Buotte et al., 2020). Forests help regulate local climate by reducing daytime temperatures and temperature extremes (Lawrence et al., 2022; Reek et al., 2026). Studies have shown that the extent of forest coverage helps to alleviate vulnerability associated with heat effects (Walton et al., 2016). Tropical deforestation threatens human well-being by removing critical local cooling effects provided by tropical forests, exacerbating extreme heat conditions in already vulnerable regions (Seymour et al., 2022).

Income and Work

For a description of the Income and Work benefits, please refer to Food Security and Health sections below. 

Food Security

Protecting forests in predominantly natural areas can improve food security by supporting crop pollination of nearby agriculture. Sarira et al. (2022) found that protecting 58% of threatened forests in Southeast Asia could support the dietary needs of about 305,000–342,000 people annually. Forests also provide a key source of income and livelihoods for subsistence households and individuals (de Souza et al., 2016; Herrera et al., 2017; Naidoo et al., 2019). By maintaining this source of income through forest protection, households can earn sufficient income that contributes to food security. 

Health

Protected forests can benefit the health and well-being of surrounding communities through impacts on the environment and local economies. Herrera et al. (2017) found that in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries, household members living downstream of higher tree cover had a lower probability of diarrheal disease. Proximity to PAs can benefit local tourism, which may provide more economic resources to surrounding households. Naidoo et al. (2019) found that households near PAs in low- and middle-income countries were more likely to have higher levels of wealth and were less likely to have children who were stunted. Reducing deforestation can improve health by lowering vector-borne diseases, mitigating extreme weather impacts, and improving air quality (Reddington et al., 2015). 

Equality

Indigenous peoples have a long history of caring for and shaping landscapes that are rich with biodiversity (Fletcher et al., 2021). Indigenous communities provide vital ecological functions for preserving biodiversity, like seed dispersal and predation (Bliege Bird & Nimmo, 2018). Indigenous peoples also have spiritual and cultural ties to their lands (Garnett et al., 2018). Establishing protected areas must prioritize the return of landscapes to Indigenous peoples so traditional owners can feel the benefits of biodiversity. However, the burden of conservation should not be placed on Indigenous communities without legal recognition or support (Fa et al., 2020). In fact, land grabs and encroachments on Indigenous lands have led to greater deforestation pressure (Sze et al., 2022). Efforts to protect these lands must include legal recognition of Indigenous ownership to support a just and sustainable conservation process (Fletcher et al., 2021).

Nature Protection

Forests are home to a wide range of species and habitats and are essential for safeguarding biodiversity. Forests have high above- and below-ground carbon density, high tree species richness, and often provide habitat to threatened and endangered species (Buotte et al., 2020). PAs can aid in avoiding extinctions by protecting rare and threatened species (Dinerstein et al. 2024). In Southeast Asia, protecting 58% of threatened forests could safeguard about half of the key biodiversity areas in the region (Sarira et al., 2022). 

Water Quality

Forests act as a natural water filter and can maintain and improve water quality (Melo et al., 2021). Forests can also retain nutrients from polluting the larger watershed (Sweeney et al., 2004). For example, forests can uptake excess nutrients like nitrogen, reducing their flow into surrounding water (Sarira et al., 2022). These excessive nutrients can cause eutrophication and algal blooms that negatively impact water quality and aquatic life. 

Risks

Ecosystem protection initiatives that are not led by or undertaken in close collaboration with local communities can compromise community sovereignty and create injustice and inequity (Baragwanath et al., 2020; Blackman & Viet 2018; Dawson et al., 2024; Fa et al., 2020; FAO, 2024; Garnett et al. 2018; Sze et al. 2022; Tauli-Corpuz et al., 2020). Forest protection has the potential to be a win-win for climate and communities, but only if PAs are established with respect to livelihoods and other socio-ecological impacts, ensuring equity in procedures, recognition, and the distribution of benefits (Zafra-Calvo et al., 2017).

Leakage is a key risk of relying on forest protection as a climate solution. Leakage occurs when deforestation-related activities move outside of PA boundaries, resulting in the relocation of, rather than a reduction in, emissions from forest loss. If forest protection efforts are not coupled with policies to reduce incentives for forest clearing, leakage will likely offset some of the emissions avoided through forest protection. Additional research is needed to comprehensively quantify the magnitude of leakage effects, though two regional-scale studies found only small negative effects (Fuller et al., 2020; Herrera et al., 2019).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Other intact and degraded ecosystems often occur within areas of forest protection. Therefore, forest protection can facilitate natural restoration of these other degraded ecosystems, and increase the health of adjacent ecosystems.

Forest protection helps restored ecosystems avoid future degradation and can also accelerate the adoption of improved forest management practices

Competing

Protecting forests could limit land availability for renewable energy technologies and raw material and food production. Protect Forests competes with the following solutions for land

This solution reduces the supply of wood. This limits the wood available as raw material to the following solutions that use it.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.299
units
Current 4.67×10⁸ 08.47×10⁸8.61×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.14 0.250.26
US$ per t CO₂-eq
2
Emergency Brake

CO₂

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
1.403
units
Current 1.59×10⁸ 02.04×10⁸3.78×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.22 0.290.53
US$ per t CO₂-eq
2
Emergency Brake

CO₂

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
2.204
units
Current 1.12×10⁸ 01.26×10⁸2.19×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.25 0.280.48
US$ per t CO₂-eq
2
Emergency Brake

CO₂

Solution Basics

ha protected

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
1.489
units
Current 9.36×10⁸ 01.12×10⁹1.577×10⁹
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 1.39 1.672.35
US$ per t CO₂-eq
2
Emergency Brake

CO₂

% tree cover
0100

Tree cover, 2000 (excluding mangroves and peatlands)

We exclude mangroves and peatlands because they are addressed in other solutions.

Global Forest Watch (2023). Global peatlands [Data set]. Retrieved December 6, 2024 from Link to source: https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::global-peatlands/about

Hansen, M.C., Potapov, P.V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S.A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S.V., Goetz, S.J., Loveland, T.R., Kommareddy, A., Egorov, A., Chini, L., Justice, C.O., and Townshend, J.R.G. (2013). High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change [Data set]. Science 342 (15 November): 850-53. Link to source: https://glad.earthengine.app/view/global-forest-change

UNEP-WCMC (2025). Ocean+ habitats (version 1.3) [Data set]. Retrieved November 2024 from habitats.oceanplus.org

% tree cover
0100

Tree cover, 2000 (excluding mangroves and peatlands)

We exclude mangroves and peatlands because they are addressed in other solutions.

Global Forest Watch (2023). Global peatlands [Data set]. Retrieved December 6, 2024 from Link to source: https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::global-peatlands/about

Hansen, M.C., Potapov, P.V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S.A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S.V., Goetz, S.J., Loveland, T.R., Kommareddy, A., Egorov, A., Chini, L., Justice, C.O., and Townshend, J.R.G. (2013). High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change [Data set]. Science 342 (15 November): 850-53. Link to source: https://glad.earthengine.app/view/global-forest-change

UNEP-WCMC (2025). Ocean+ habitats (version 1.3) [Data set]. Retrieved November 2024 from habitats.oceanplus.org

Maps Introduction

The adoption, potential adoption, and effectiveness of forest protection are highly geographically variable. While forest protection can help avoid emissions anywhere that forests occur, areas with high rates of forest loss from human drivers and particularly carbon-rich forests have the greatest potential for avoiding emissions via forest protection. The tropics and subtropics are high-priority areas for forest protection as they contain 55% of currently unprotected forest area, forest loss due to agricultural expansion is particularly concentrated in these regions (Curtis et al., 2018; West et al., 2014; Gibbs et al., 2010), and tend to have larger biomass carbon stocks than boreal forests (Harris et al., 2021). 

Developed countries also have significant potential to protect remaining old and long unlogged forests and foster recovery in secondary natural forests. The top 10 forested countries include Canada, the USA, Russia and even Australia, with the latter moving towards ending commodity production in its natural forests and increasing formal protection. Restoration of degraded forests is addressed in the Forest Restoration solution, but including regenerating forests in well designed protected areas is well within the capacity of every developed country.

Buffering and reconnecting existing high integrity forests is a low risk climate solution that increases current and future forest ecosystem resilience and adaptive capacity (Brennan et al., 2022; Brink et al., 2017; Grantham et al., 2020; Rogers et al., 2022). Forests with high ecological integrity provide outsized benefits for carbon storage and biodiversity and have greater resilience, making them top priorities for protection (Grantham et al., 2020; Rogers et al., 2022). Within a given forest, large-diameter trees similarly provide outsized carbon storage and biodiversity benefits, comprising only 1% of trees globally but storing 50% of the above ground forest carbon (Lutz et al., 2018). Additionally, forests that improve protected area connectivity (Brennan et al., 2022; Brink et al., 2017), areas at high risk of loss (particularly to expansion of commodity agriculture; Curtis et al., 2018; Hansen et al., 2013), and areas with particularly large or specialized benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being (Dinerstein et al., 2024; Sarira et al., 2022; Soto-Navarro et al., 2020) may be key targets for forest protection.

Action Word
Protect
Solution Title
Forests
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set achievable targets and pledges for PA designation and set clear effectiveness goals for PAs, emphasizing the effectiveness of current PAs before seeking to expand designations.
  • Use a variety of indicators to measure effectiveness, such as estimated avoided deforestation.
  • Ensure public procurement utilizes deforestation-free products and supply chains.
  • Grant Indigenous communities full property rights and autonomy and support them in monitoring, managing, and enforcing PAs.
  • Ensure PAs do not displace, violate rights, or reduce access to vital resources for local and Indigenous communities.
  • Invest in PA infrastructure, monitoring, management, and enforcement mechanisms.
  • Utilize real-time monitoring and satellite data such as the “Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation” (DETER).
  • Join, support, or create certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council for sustainable logging practices.
  • Conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid roads and other development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Create processes for legal grievances, dispute resolution, and restitution.
  • Remove harmful agricultural and logging subsidies.
  • Prioritize reducing food loss and waste.
  • Create education programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use forest resources sustainably.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Set achievable targets and pledges for PA designation and set clear effectiveness goals for PAs, emphasizing the effectiveness of current PAs before seeking to expand designations
  • Use a variety of indicators to measure effectiveness, such as estimated avoided deforestation.
  • Ensure PAs do not displace, violate rights, or reduce access to vital resources for local and Indigenous communities.
  • Utilize real-time monitoring and satellite data such as the “Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation” (DETER).
  • Create sustainable use regulations for PA areas that provide resources to the local community.
  • Conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Grant Indigenous communities full property rights and autonomy and support them in monitoring, managing, and enforcing PAs.
  • Join, support, or create certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council for sustainable logging practices.
  • Create processes for legal grievances, dispute resolution, and restitution.
  • Create education programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use forest resources sustainably.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Create deforestation-free supply chains, utilizing data, information, and the latest technology to inform product sourcing.
  • Integrate deforestation-free business and investment policies and practices in Net-Zero strategies.
  • Only purchase carbon credits from high-integrity, verifiable carbon markets and do not use them as replacements for reducing emissions.
  • Help shift the public narrative around carbon markets as integrity increases to boost education, dialogue, and awareness.
  • Develop financial instruments to invest in PA jurisdictions, focusing on supporting Indigenous communities.
  • Join or create public-private partnerships, alliances, or coalitions of stakeholders and rightsholders to support PAs and advance deforestation-free markets.
  • Join, support, or create certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council for sustainable logging practices.
  • Conduct proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for public relations and communications.
  • Support education programs that educate the public on PA regulations, the benefits of the regulations, and how to use forest resources sustainably.
  • Leverage political influence to advocate for stronger PA policies at national and international levels, especially policies that reduce deforestation pressure. 

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Ensure operations utilize deforestation-free products and supply chains.
  • Advocate for PAs and for public investments and evaluation indicators to strengthen the effectiveness of PAs.
  • Assist in managing and monitoring PAs, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data such as the “Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation” (DETER).
  • Provide financial support for PAs management, monitoring, and enforcement.
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Advocate for creating legal grievance processes, dispute resolution mechanisms, and restitution procedures for violations or disagreements over PAs.
  • Support high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Help shift the public narrative around carbon markets as integrity increases to boost education, dialogue, and awareness.
  • Support PAs, businesses, and investors by sharing data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid deforestation.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for PAs by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Join, support, or create certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council for sustainable logging practices.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for legal protection and public relations.
  • Advocate for non-timber forest products to support local and Indigenous communities.
  • Advocate to remove harmful agricultural subsidies and prioritize reducing food loss and waste.

Further information:

Investors
  • Create deforestation-free investment portfolios, utilizing data, information, and the latest technology to inform investments.
  • Invest in PA infrastructure, monitoring, management, and enforcement mechanisms.
  • Invest in green bonds or high-integrity carbon credits for forest conservation efforts.
  • Develop financial instruments to invest in PA jurisdictions, focusing on supporting Indigenous communities.
  • Support PAs, other investors, and NGOs by sharing data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid investments that drive deforestation.
  • Join, support, or create science-based certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council for sustainable logging practices.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for PAs by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Require portfolio companies to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains and ask that they demonstrate strong PA practices.
  • Consider opportunities to invest in forest monitoring technologies or bioeconomy products derived from standing forests (e.g., nuts, berries, or other derivatives)

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Ensure operations utilize deforestation-free products and supply chains.
  • Provide financial support for PAs management, monitoring, and enforcement.
  • Assist in monitoring PAs, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data such as the “Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation” (DETER).
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Support and finance high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Help shift the public narrative around carbon markets as integrity increases to boost education, dialogue, and awareness.
  • Support PAs, businesses, and investors by sharing data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid deforestation.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for PAs by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Invest in and support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for public relations and communications.
  • Financially support Indigenous land tenure.
  • Join, support, or create certification schemes like the Forest Stewardship Council for sustainable logging practices.
  • Advocate for PAs and for public investments and evaluation indicators to strengthen the effectiveness of PAs.
  • Advocate for legal grievances, dispute resolution, and restitution processes.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for PAs and for public investments and evaluation indicators to strengthen the effectiveness of PAs.
  • Assist in monitoring PAs, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data such as the “Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation” (DETER).
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Advocate for legal grievances, dispute resolution, and restitution processes.
  • Support high-integrity carbon markets, institutions, rules, and norms to cultivate the demand for high-quality carbon credits.
  • Help shift the public narrative around carbon markets as integrity increases to boost education, dialogue, and awareness.
  • Support PAs, businesses, and investors by sharing data, information, and investment frameworks that successfully avoid deforestation.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for PAs by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Amplify the voices of local communities and civil society to promote robust media coverage.
  • Support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for public relations and communications.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Improving PA monitoring methods and data collection, utilizing satellite imagery and GIS tools.
  • Develop land-use planning tools that help avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Create tools for local communities to monitor PAs, such as mobile apps, e-learning platforms, and mapping tools.
  • Conduct evaluations of the species richness of potential PAs and recommend areas of high biodiversity to be designated as PAs.
  • Develop verifiable carbon credits using technology such as blockchain to improve the integrity of carbon markets.
  • Develop supply chain tracking software for investors and businesses seeking to create deforestation-free portfolios and products.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Ensure purchases and investments utilize deforestation-free products and supply chains.
  • Advocate for PAs and for public investments and evaluation indicators to strengthen the effectiveness of PAs.
  • Assist in monitoring PAs, utilizing real-time monitoring and satellite data such as the “Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation” (DETER).
  • Assist in conducting proactive land-use planning to avoid infrastructure or development projects that may interfere with PAs or incentivize deforestation.
  • Advocate for legal grievances, dispute resolution, and restitution processes.
  • Support Indigenous and local communities' capacity for public relations and communications.
  • Assist with evaluations of the species richness of potential PAs and advocate for PAs in areas of high biodiversity that are threatened.
  • Help shift public narratives to mobilize public action and build political will for PAs by creating educational campaigns and strengthening networks of stakeholders and rightsholders.
  • Undertake forest protection and expansion initiatives locally by working to preserve existing forests and restore degraded forest areas.
  • Engage in citizen science initiatives by partnering with researchers or conservation groups to monitor PAs and document threats. 

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing emissions and maintaining carbon removal: High

There is high scientific consensus that forest protection is a key strategy for reducing forest loss and addressing climate change. Rates of forest loss are lower inside of PAs and Indigenous peoples’ lands than outside of them. Globally, Wolf et al. (2021) found that rates of forest loss inside PAs are 40.5% lower on average than in unprotected areas, and Li et al. (2024) estimated that overall forest loss is 14% lower in PAs relative to unprotected areas. Regional studies find similar average effects of PAs on deforestation rates. For instance, McNichol et al. (2023) reported 39% lower deforestation rates in African woodlands in PAs relative to unprotected areas, and Graham et al. (2021) reported 69% lower deforestation rates in PAs relative to unprotected areas in Southeast Asia. In the tropics, Sze et al. (2022) found that rates of forest loss were similar between Indigenous lands and PAs, with forest loss rates reduced 17–29% relative to unprotected areas. Baragwanath & Bayi (2020) reported a 75% decline in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon when Indigenous peoples are granted full property rights.

Reductions in forest loss lead to proportionate reductions in CO₂ emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that ecosystem protection, including forests, peatlands, grasslands, and coastal wetlands, has a technical mitigation potential of 6.2 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 4.0 Gt of which are available at a carbon price less than US$100 tCO₂‑eq/yr  (Nabuurs et al., 2022). Similarly, Griscom et al. (2017) found that avoiding human-caused forest loss is among the most effective natural climate solutions, with a potential impact of 3.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (including forests on peatlands), nearly 2 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of which is achievable at a cost below US$10/t CO₂‑eq/yr.

The results presented in this document were produced through analysis of 12 global datasets. We recognize that geographic biases can influence the development of global datasets and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Appendix

In this analysis, we integrated global land cover data, maps of forest loss rates, shapefiles of PAs and Indigenous people’s lands, country-scale data on reductions in forest loss inside of PAs, and biome-scale data on forest carbon stocks and sequestration rates to calculate currently protected forest area, total global forest area, and avoided emissions from forest protection. Forested peatlands and mangroves are excluded from this analysis and addressed in the Protect Peatlands and Protect Coastal Wetlands solutions, respectively.

Land cover data

We used two land cover data products to estimate forest extent inside and outside of PAs and Indigenous people’s lands, including: 1) the Global Forest Watch (GFW) tree cover dataset (Hansen et al., 2013), resampled to 30 second resolution, and 2) the 2022 European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) land cover dataset at native resolution (300 m). For the ESA CCI dataset, all non-flooded tree cover classes (50, 60, 70, 80, 90) and the “mosaic tree and shrub (>50%)/herbaceous cover (<50%)” class (100) and associated subclasses were included as forests. Both products are associated with uncertainty, which we did not address directly in our calculations. We include estimates from both products in order to provide readers with a sense of the variability in values that can stem from different land cover classification methods, which are discussed in more detail below.

These two datasets have methodological differences that result in substantially different classifications of forest extent, including their thresholds for defining forests, their underlying satellite data, and the algorithms used to classify forests based on the satellite information. For example, the ESA CCI product classifies 300-meter pixels with >15% tree cover as forests (based on our included classes), attempts to differentiate tree crops, relies on a 2003–2012 baseline land cover map coupled with a change-detection algorithm, and primarily uses imagery from MERIS, PROBA-V, and Sentinel missions (ESA CCI 2019). In contrast, the Global Forest Watch product generally requires >30% tree cover at 30-meter resolution, does not exclude tree crops, relies on a regression tree model for development of a baseline tree cover map circa 2010, and primarily uses Landsat ETM+ satellite imagery (Hansen et al., 2013). We recommend that interested readers refer to the respective user guides for each data product for a comprehensive discussion of the complex methods used for their development.

We used the Forest Landscape Integrity Index map developed by Grantham et al. (2020), which classifies forests with integrity indices ≥9.6 as high integrity. These forests are characterized by minimal human disturbance and high connectivity. Mangroves and peatlands were excluded from this analysis. We used a map of mangroves from Giri et al. (2011) and a map of peatlands compiled by Global Forest Watch to define mangrove and peatland extent (accessed at https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::global-peatlands/about). The peatlands map is a composite of maps from five publications: Crezee et al. (2022), Gumbricht et al. (2017), Hastie et al. (2022), Miettinen et al. (2016), and Xu et al. (2018). For each compiled dataset, the data were resampled to 30-second resolution by calculating the area of each grid cell occupied by mangroves or peatlands. For each grid cell containing forests, the “eligible” forest area was calculated by subtracting the mangrove and peatland area from the total forest area for each forest cover dataset (GFW, ESA CCI, and high-integrity forests).

Protected forest areas

We identified protected forest areas using the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA, 2024), which contains boundaries for each PA and additional information, including their establishment year and IUCN management category (Ia to VI, not applicable, not reported, and not assigned). For each PA polygon, we extracted the forest area from the GFW, ESA CCI, and high-integrity dataset (after removing the peatland and mangrove areas).

Each protected area was classified into a climate zone based on the midpoint between its minimum and maximum latitude. Zones included tropical (23.4°N–23.4°S), subtropical (23.4°–35° latitude), temperate (35°–50° latitude), and boreal (>50° latitude) in order to retain some spatial variability in emissions factors. We aggregated protected forest cover areas (from each of the two forest cover datasets and the high-integrity forest data) by IUCN class and climate zone. To evaluate trends in adoption over time, we also aggregated protected areas by establishment year. We used the same method to calculate the forest area that could be protected, extracting the total area of each land cover type by climate zone (inside and outside of existing PAs). 

We used maps from Garnett et al. (2018) to identify Indigenous people’s lands that were not inside established PAs. We calculated the total forest area within Indigenous people’s lands (excluding PAs, mangroves, and peatlands) using the same three forest area data sources. 

Forest loss and emissions factors

Forest loss rates were calculated for unprotected areas using the GFW forest loss dataset for 2001–2022, resampled to 1 km resolution. Forest losses were reclassified according to their dominant drivers based on the maps originally developed by Curtis et al. (2018), with updates accessible through GFW. Dominant drivers of forest loss include commodity agriculture, shifting agriculture, urbanization, forestry, and wildfire. We classified all drivers except wildfire as human-caused forest loss for this analysis. We calculated the area of forest loss attributable to each driver within each climate zone, which represented the “baseline” rate of forest loss outside of PAs. 

To calculate the difference in forest loss rates attributable to protection, we used country-level data from Wolf et al. (2021) on the ratio of forest loss in unprotected areas versus PAs, controlling for a suite of socio-environmental characteristics. We classified countries into climate zones based on their median latitude and averaged the ratios within climate zones. We defined the avoided forest loss attributable to protection as the product of the baseline forest loss rate and the ratio of forest loss outside versus inside of PAs.

We calculated the carbon benefits of avoided forest loss by multiplying avoided forest loss by average forest carbon stocks and sequestration rates. Harris et al. (2021) reported carbon stocks and sequestration rates by climate zone (boreal, temperate, subtropical, and tropical), and forest type. Carbon stocks and sequestration rates for primary and old secondary (>20 years old) forests were averaged for this analysis. We calculated carbon sequestration over a 20-yr period to provide values commensurate with the one-time loss of biomass carbon stocks.

Source data

Crezee, B. et al. Mapping peat thickness and carbon stocks of the central Congo Basin using field data. Nature Geoscience 15: 639-644 (2022). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-00966-7. Data downloaded from https://congopeat.net/maps/, using classes 4 and 5 only (peat classes). 

Curtis, P. G., Slay, C. M., Harris, N. L., Tyukavina, A., & Hansen, M. C. (2018). Classifying drivers of global forest loss. Science, 361(6407), 1108–1111. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau3445

ESA CCI (2019). Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store: Land cover classification gridded maps from 1992 to present derived from satellite observation. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). Accessed November 2024. doi: 10.24381/cds.006f2c9a

Garnett, S. T., Burgess, N. D., Fa, J. E., Fernández-Llamazares, Á., Molnár, Z., Robinson, C. J., Watson, J. E. M., Zander, K. K., Austin, B., Brondizio, E. S., Collier, N. F., Duncan, T., Ellis, E., Geyle, H., Jackson, M. V., Jonas, H., Malmer, P., McGowan, B., Sivongxay, A., & Leiper, I. (2018). A spatial overview of the global importance of Indigenous lands for conservation. Nature Sustainability, 1(7), 369–374. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0100-6

Giri C, Ochieng E, Tieszen LL, Zhu Z, Singh A, Loveland T, Masek J, Duke N (2011). Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data (version 1.3, updated by UNEP-WCMC). Global Ecology and Biogeography 20: 154-159. doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00584.x . Data URL: http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/4

Gumbricht, T. et al. An expert system model for mapping tropical wetlands and peatlands reveals South America as the largest contributor. Global Change Biology 23, 3581–3599 (2017). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.13689 

Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S. A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S. V., Goetz, S. J., Loveland, T. R., Kommareddy, A., Egorov, A., Chini, L., Justice, C. O., & Townshend, J. R. G. (2013). High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change. Science, 342(6160), 850–853. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244693. Data available on-line from: http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest. Accessed through Global Forest Watch on 01/12/2024. www.globalforestwatch.org

Harris, N. L., Gibbs, D. A., Baccini, A., Birdsey, R. A., de Bruin, S., Farina, M., Fatoyinbo, L., Hansen, M. C., Herold, M., Houghton, R. A., Potapov, P. V., Suarez, D. R., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Saatchi, S. S., Slay, C. M., Turubanova, S. A., & Tyukavina, A. (2021). Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes. Nature Climate Change, 11(3), 234–240. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00976-6

Hastie, A. et al. Risks to carbon storage from land-use change revealed by peat thickness maps of Peru. Nature Geoscience 15: 369-374 (2022). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-00923-4

Miettinen, J., Shi, C. & Liew, S. C. Land cover distribution in the peatlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2015 with changes since 1990. Global Ecological Conservation. 6, 67– 78 (2016). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989415300470

UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (2024), Protected Planet: The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) and World Database on Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (WD-OECM) [Online], Accessed November 2024, Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. Available at: www.protectedplanet.net.

Wolf, C., Levi, T., Ripple, W. J., Zárrate-Charry, D. A., & Betts, M. G. (2021). A forest loss report card for the world’s protected areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 5(4), 520–529. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01389-0

Xu et al. PEATMAP: Refining estimates of global peatland distribution based on a meta-analysis. CATENA 160: 134-140 (2018). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816217303004 

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
Coming Soon

Reduce Food Loss & Waste

Sector
Food, Agriculture, Land & Ocean (FALO)
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Curb Growing Demands
Image
Apples in crates with worker on tablet
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

More than one-third of all food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted before it can be eaten. This means that the GHGs emitted during the production and distribution of that particular food – including emissions from agriculture-related deforestation and soil management, methane emissions from livestock and rice production, and nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer management – are also wasted. This solution reduces emissions by lowering the amount of food and its associated emissions that are lost or wasted across the supply chain, from production through consumption.

Extreme weather events
Income & work,Food security,Health
Land resources,Water resources
Description for Social and Search
Reduce Food Loss and Waste is a Highly Recommended climate solution. It avoids the GHG emissions embodied in produced but uneaten food.
Overview

The global food system, including land use, production, storage, and distribution, generates more than 25% of global GHG emissions (Poore and Nemecek, 2018). More than one-third of this food is lost or wasted before it can be eaten, with estimated associated emissions being recorded at 4.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (our own calculation). FLW emissions arise from supply chain embodied emissions (i.e., the emissions generated from producing food and delivering to consumers). Reducing food loss and waste avoids the embodied emissions while simultaneously increasing food supply and reducing pressure to expand agricultural land use and intensity.

FLW occurs at each stage of the food supply chain (Figure 1). Food loss refers to the stages of production, handling, storage, and processing within the supply chain. Food waste occurs at the distribution, retail, and consumer stages of the supply chain.

Figure 1. GHG emissions occur at each stage of the food supply chain. Food loss occurs at the pre-consumer stages of the supply chain, whereas food waste occurs at the distribution, market, and consumption stages. Credit: Project Drawdown

Diagram showing five stages: Production, Handling and Storage, Processing, Distribution and Market, and Consumption, with Loss occurring in the first three stages, and waste occurring in the last two stages.

Food loss can be reduced through improved post-harvest management practices, such as increasing the number and storage capacity of warehouses, optimizing processes and equipment, and improving packaging to increase shelf life. Retailers can reduce food waste by improving inventory management, forecasting demand, donating unsold food to food banks, and standardizing date labeling. Consumers can reduce food waste by educating themselves, making informed purchasing decisions, and effectively planning meals. The type of interventions to reduce FLW will depend on the type(s) of food product, the supply chain stage(s), and the location(s). 

When FLW cannot be prevented, organic waste can be managed in ways that limit its GHG emissions. Waste management is not included in this solution but is addressed in other Drawdown Explorer solutions (see Deploy Methane Digesters, Improve Landfill Management, and Increase Centralized Composting).

References

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Read, Q. D., & Muth, M. K. (2021). Cost-effectiveness of four food waste interventions: Is food waste reduction a “win–win?”. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 168. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105448 

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Credits

Lead Fellows

  • Erika Luna

  • Aishwarya Venkat, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • Emily Cassidy, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

  • Eric Toensmeier

  • Paul C. West, Ph.D.

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Ted Otte

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

  • Paul C. West, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Our analysis estimates that reducing FLW reduces emissions 2.82 t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis) for every metric ton of food saved (Table 1). This estimate is based on selected country and global assessments from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), public agencies, and development banks (ReFED, 2024; World Bank, 2020; WRAP, 2024). All studies included in this estimate reported a reduction in both volumes of FLW and GHG emissions. However, it is important to recognize that the range of embodied emissions varies widely across foods (Poore & Nemecek, 2018). For example, reducing meat waste can be more effective than reducing fruit waste because the embodied emissions are much higher.

Effectiveness is only reported on a 100-yr time frame here because our data sources did not include enough information to separate out the contribution of different GHGs and calculate the effectiveness on a 20-yr time frame.

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /t reduced FLW, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 2.75
Mean 3.11
Median (50th percentile) 2.82
75th percentile 3.30
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Cost

The net cost of baseline FLW is US$932.56/t waste, based on values from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2014) and Hegensholt et al. (2018). The median net cost of implementing strategies and practices that reduce FLW is US$385.5/t waste reduced, based on values from ReFED (2024) and Hanson and Mitchell (2017). These costs include, but are not limited to, improvements to inventory tracking, storage, and diversion to food banks. Therefore, the net cost of the solution compared to baseline is a total savings of US$547.0/t waste reduced. 

Therefore, reducing emissions for FLW is cost-effective, saving US$194.0/t avoided CO₂‑eq on a 100-yr basis (Table 2).

Table 2. Net cost per unit climate impact.

Unit: US$/t CO₂‑eq , 2023

Median (100-yr basis) -194.0
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Learning curve data were not yet available for this solution.

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Reduce Food Loss and Waste is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It has the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than nominal and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.

Caveats

Reducing FLW through consumer behavior, supply chain efficiencies, or other means can lead to lower food prices, creating a rebound effect that leads to increased consumption and GHG emissions (Hegwood et al., 2023). This rebound effect could offset around 53–71% of the mitigation benefits (Hegwood et al., 2023). Population and economic growth also increase FLW. The question remains however, who should bear the cost of implementing FLW solutions. A combination of value chain investments by governments and waste taxes for consumers may be required for optimal FLW reduction (Gatto, 2023; Hegwood, 2023; The World Bank, 2020). 

Strategies for managing post-consumer waste through composting and landfills are captured in other Project Drawdown solutions (see Improve Landfill Management, Increase Centralized Composting, and Deploy Methane Digesters).

Current Adoption

Due to a lack of data we were not able to quantify current adoption for this solution.

Adoption Trend

Data on adoption trends were not available.

Adoption Ceiling

We assumed an adoption ceiling of 1.75 Gt of FLW reduction in 2023, which reflects a 100% reduction in FLW (Table 3). While reducing FLW by 100% is unrealistic because some losses and waste are inevitable (e.g., trimmings, fruit pits and peels) and some surplus food is needed to ensure a stable food supply (HLPE, 2014), we kept that simple assumption because there wasn’t sufficient information on the amount of inevitable waste, and it is consistent with other research used in this assessment.

Table 3. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: t reduced FLW/yr

Median 1,750,000,000
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Achievable Adoption

Studies consider that halving the reduction in FLW by 2050 is extremely ambitious and would require “breakthrough technologies,” whereas a 25% reduction is classified as highly ambitious, and a 10% reduction is more realistic based on coordinated efforts (Searchinger, 2019; Springmann et al., 2018). With our estimate of 1.75 Gt of FLW per year, a 25% reduction equals 0.48 Gt, while a 50% reduction would represent 0.95 Gt of reduced FLW.

It is important to acknowledge that, 10 years after the 50% reduction target was set in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs, Goal 12.3), the world has not made sufficient progress. The challenge has therefore become larger as the amounts of FLW keep increasing at a rate of 2.2%/yr (Gatto & Chepeliev, 2023; Hegnsholt, et al. 2018; Porter et al., 2016).

As a result of these outcomes, we have selected a 25% reduction in FLW as our Achievable – Low and 50% as our Achievable – High. Reductions in FLW are 437.5, 875.0, and 1,750 Mt FLW/year for Achievable – Low, Achievable – High, and Adoption Ceiling, respectively (Table 4).

Table 4. Adoption levels.

Unit: t reduced FLW/yr

Current adoption (baseline) Not determined
Achievable – low (25% of total FLW) 437,500,000
Achievable – high (50% of total FLW) 875,000,000
Adoption ceiling (100% of total FLW) 1,750,000,000
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An Achievable – Low (25% FLW reduction) could represent 1.23 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100-yr basis) of reduced emissions, whereas an Achievable – High (50% FLW reduction) could represent up to 2.47 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. The adoption potential (100% FLW reduction) would result in 4.94 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 5). We only report emissions outcomes on a 100-yr basis here because most data sources did not separate the percentage of type of food wasted or disaggregate their associated emissions factors by GHG type. Estimated impacts would be higher on a 20-yr basis due to the higher GWP of methane associated with meat and rice production. 

Table 5. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption (1.5% of total FLW) Not determined
Achievable – low (25% of total FLW) 1.23
Achievable – high (50% of total FLW) 2.47
Adoption ceiling (100% of total FLW) 4.94
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We also compiled studies that have modeled the climate impacts of different FLW reduction scenarios, from 10% to 75%. For an achievable 25% reduction, Scheringer (2019) estimated a climate impact of 1.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. Studies that modeled the climate impact of a 50% reduction by 2050 estimated between 0.5 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (excluding emissions from agricultural production and land use change; Roe at al., 2021) to 3.1–4.5 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (including emissions from agricultural production and land use change; Roe at al., 2021; Searchinger et al., 2019).

Multiple studies stated that climate impacts from FLW reduction would be greater when combined with the implementation of dietary changes (see the Improve Diets solution; Almaraz et al., 2023; Babiker et al.; 2022; Roe et al., 2021; Springmann et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2023).

Additional Benefits

Extreme Weather Events

Households and communities can strengthen adaptation to climate change by improving food storage, which helps reduce food loss (Ziervogel & Ericksen, 2010). Better food storage infrastructure improves food security from extreme weather events such as drought or floods which make it more difficult to grow food and can disrupt food distribution (Mbow et al., 2019). 

Income and Work

FLW accounts for a loss of about US$1 trillion annually (World Bank, 2020). In the United States, a four-person household spends about US$2,913 on food that is wasted (Kenny, 2025). These household-level savings are particularly important for low-income families because they commonly spend a higher proportion of their income on food (Davidenko & Sweitzer, 2024). Reducing FLW can improve economic efficiency (Jaglo et al., 2021). In fact, a report by Champions 12.3 found efforts to reduce food waste produced positive returns on investments in cities, businesses, and households in the United Kingdom (Hanson & Mitchell, 2017). FLW in low- and middle-income countries mostly occurs during the pre-consumer stages, such as storage, processing, and transport (Kaza et al., 2018). Preventive measures to reduce these losses have been linked to improved incomes and profits (Rolker et al., 2022). 

Food Security

Reducing FLW increases the amount of available food, thereby improving food security without requiring increased production (Neff et al., 2015). The World Resources Institute estimated that halving the rate of FLW could reduce the projected global need for food approximately 20% by 2050 (Searchinger et al., 2019). In the United States, about 30–40% of food is wasted (U.S. Food and Drug Administration [U.S. FDA], 2019) with this uneaten food accounting for enough calories to feed more than 150 million people annually (Jaglo et al., 2021). These studies demonstrate that reducing FLW can simultaneously decrease the demand for food production while improving food security.

Health

Policies that reduce food waste at the consumer level, such as those that improve food packaging and require clearer information on shelf life and date labels, can reduce the number of foodborne illnesses (Neff et al., 2015; U.S. FDA, 2019). Additionally, efforts to improve food storage and food handling can further reduce illnesses and improve working conditions for food-supply-chain workers (Neff et al., 2015). Reducing FLW can lower air pollution from food production, processing, and transportation and from disposal of wasted food (Nutrition Connect, 2023). Gatto and Chepeliev (2024) found that reducing FLW can improve air quality (primarily through reductions in carbon monoxide, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter), which lowers premature mortality from respiratory infections. These benefits were primarily observed in China, India, and Indonesia, where high FLW-embedded air pollution is prevalent across all stages of the food supply chain (Gatto & Chepeliev, 2024).

Land Resources

For a description of the land resources benefits, please refer to the “water resources” subsection below. 

Water Resources

Reducing FLW can conserve resources and improve biodiversity (Cattaneo, Federighi, & Vaz, 2021). A reduction in FLW reflects improvements in resource efficiency of freshwater, synthetic fertilizers, and cropland used for agriculture (Kummu et al., 2012). Reducing the strain on freshwater resources is particularly relevant in water-scarce areas such as North Africa and West-Central Asia (Kummu et al., 2012). In the United States, halving the amount of FLW could reduce approximately 290,000 metric tons of nitrogen from fertilizers, thereby reducing runoff, improving water quality, and decreasing algal blooms (Jaglo et al., 2021).

Risks

Interventions to address FLW risk ignoring economic factors such as price transmission mechanisms and cascading effects, both upstream and downstream in the supply chain. The results of a FLW reduction policy or program depend greatly on the commodity, initial FLW rates, and market integration (Cattaneo, 2021; de Gorter, 2021).

On the consumer side, there is a risk of a rebound effect: Avoiding FLW can lower food prices, leading to increased consumption and net increase in GHG emissions (Hegwood et al., 2023). Available evidence is highly contextual and often difficult to scale, so relevant dynamics must be studied with care (Goossens, 2019).

The production site is a critical loss point, and farm incomes, scale of operations, and expected returns to investment affect loss reduction interventions (Anriquez, 2021; Fabi, 2021; Sheahan and Barrett, 2017).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reducing FLW can lower new demand for high-emissions foods, like ruminant meat.

Reducing FLW can lower demand for new production of livestock and crops, reducing the use of fertilizers or manure and therefore associated emissions.

Reducing FLW can reduce the demand to expand agriculture, support land conservation and restoration, and benefit water quality.

Reducing food loss and waste can reduce the demand for wild-harvested macroalgae.

(mixed) Reducing FLW can increase demand for cold storage, more efficient appliances, and optimized transport, which could reinforce the adoption of solutions targeting these improvements. However, reducing FLW could compete with other solutions if loss reductions are achieved mainly from producing less food, which could lead to lower refrigeration demand.

Competing

Food waste is used as raw material for methane digestors and composting. Reducing FLW may reduce the impact of those solutions as a result of decreased feedstock availability.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

t reduced FLW

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
02.752.82median
units/yr
Current Not Determined 04.375×10⁸8.75×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current Not Determined 1.232.47
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-194
Emergency Brake

CO₂ , CH₄ , N₂O

Trade-offs

Some FLW reduction strategies have trade-offs for emission reductions (Cattaneo, 2021; de Gorter et al., 2021). For example, improved cold storage and packaging are important interventions for reducing food loss, yet they require additional electricity and refrigerants, which can increase GHG emissions (Babiker et al., 2022; FAO, 2019).

Action Word
Reduce
Solution Title
Food Loss & Waste
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Ensure public procurement uses strategies to reduce FLW at all stages of the supply chain; consider using the Food Loss and Waste Protocol.
  • Use financial incentives and regulations to promote efficient growing practices, harvesting methods, and storage technologies.
  • Utilize financial instruments such as taxes, subsidies, or exemptions to support infrastructure, technology, and enforcement.
  • Implement bans on food waste in landfills.
  • Standardize food date labels.
  • Mandate FLW reporting and reduction targets for major food businesses.
  • Prioritize policies that divert FLW toward human consumption first, then prioritize animal feed or compost.
  • Fund research to improve monitoring technologies, food storage, and resilient crop varieties.
  • Invest or expand extension services to work with major food businesses to reduce FLW.
  • Invest in and improve supportive infrastructure including electricity, public storage facilities, and roads to facilitate compost supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Ensure operations reduce FLW at all stages of the supply chain; consider using the Food Loss and Waste Protocol.
  • Set ambitious targets to reduce FLW, reevaluate them regularly, and use thorough measurements that capture FLW, associated GHG emissions, and financial data.
  • Take advantage of extension services and financial incentives such as tax rebates and subsidies that promote FLW reduction strategies.
  • Work with policymakers, peers, and industry leaders to standardize date labeling.
  • Promote cosmetically imperfect food through marketing, discounts, or offtake agreements.
  • Utilize behavior change mechanisms such as signage saying “eat what you take,” offer smaller portion sizes, use smaller plates for servings, and visibly post information on the impact of FLW and best practices for prevention.
  • Engage with frontline workers to identify and remedy FLW.
  • Institute warehouse receipt systems and tracking techniques.
  • Use tested storage devices and facilities such as hermetic bags and metal silos.
  • Utilize Integrated pest management (IPM) during both pre- and post-harvest stages.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Ensure procurement uses strategies to reduce FLW at all stages of the supply chain; consider using the Food Loss and Waste Protocol.
  • Set ambitious targets to reduce FLW, reevaluate them regularly, and use thorough measurements that capture FLW, associated GHG emissions, and financial data.
  • Utilize or work with companies that utilize efficient growing practices, harvesting methods, and storage technologies that reduce FLW.
  • Enter into offtake agreements for diverted food initiatives.
  • Promote cosmetically imperfect food through marketing, discounts, or offtake agreements.
  • Work with policymakers and industry peers to standardize date labeling and advocate for bans on food waste in landfills.
  • Appoint a senior executive responsible for FLW goals and ensure they have the resources and authority for effective implementation.
  • Utilize behavior change mechanisms such as signage saying, “eat what you take,” offer smaller portion sizes, use smaller plates for servings, and visibly post information on the impact of FLW and best practices for prevention.
  • Engage with frontline workers to identify and remedy FLW.
  • Institute warehouse receipt systems and tracking techniques.
  • Fund research or startups that aim to improve monitoring technologies, food storage, packaging materials, stocking practices, and resilient crop varieties.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Ensure procurement uses strategies to reduce FLW at all stages of the supply chain; consider using the Food Loss and Waste Protocol.
  • Advocate for bans on food waste in landfills.
  • Work with policymakers and industry leaders to standardize date labeling.
  • Help food and agricultural companies use efficient growing practices, harvesting methods, and storage technologies that reduce FLW.
  • Advocate for financial instruments such as taxes, subsidies, or exemptions to support infrastructure, technology, and enforcement.
  • Use cosmetically imperfect and diverted food for food banks.
  • Help companies track and report FLW and monitor goals, and offer input for improvement.
  • Help transfer capacity, knowledge, and infrastructure to support FLW management in low- and middle-income communities.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Investors
  • Ensure portfolio companies and company procurement use strategies to reduce FLW at all stages of the supply chain; consider using the Food Loss and Waste Protocol.
  • Require portfolio companies to measure and report on FLW GHG emissions.
  • Fund startups which aim to improve monitoring technologies, food storage, packaging materials, stocking practices, and resilient crop varieties.
  • Offer financial services, notably rural financial market development, including low-interest loans, micro-financing, and grants to support FLW prevention initiatives.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships, such as the Food Waste Funder Circle, that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Ensure procurement uses strategies to reduce FLW at all stages of the supply chain; consider using the Food Loss and Waste Protocol.
  • Advocate for bans on food waste in landfills.
  • Work with policymakers and industry leaders to standardize date labeling.
  • Help food and agricultural companies use efficient growing practices, harvesting methods, and storage technologies that reduce FLW.
  • Advocate for financial instruments such as taxes, subsidies, or exemptions to support infrastructure, technology, and enforcement.
  • Use cosmetically imperfect and diverted food for food banks.
  • Help companies tracking and report FLW and monitor goals, and offer input for improvement.
  • Help transfer capacity, knowledge, and infrastructure to support FLW management in low- and middle-income communities.
  • Fund startups that aim to improve monitoring technologies, food storage, packaging materials, stocking practices, and resilient crop varieties.
  • Offer financial services, especially for rural financial market development, including low-interest loans, micro-financing, and grants to support FLW initiatives.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships, such as the Food Waste Funder Circle, that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Adopt behaviors to reduce FLW, including portion control, “eating what you take,” and reducing meat consumption.
  • Advocate for bans on food waste in landfills.
  • Help food and agricultural companies use efficient growing practices, harvesting methods, and storage technologies that reduce FLW.
  • Work with policymakers and industry leaders to standardize date labeling.
  • Advocate for financial instruments such as taxes, subsidies, or exemptions to support infrastructure, technology, and enforcement.
  • Help companies or independent track and report FLW data and emissions.
  • Help transfer capacity, knowledge, and infrastructure to support FLW management in low- and middle-income communities.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Research and develop more efficient growing and harvesting practices.
  • Develop new crop varieties to increase land productivity, shelf life, durability during transportation, and resistance to contamination.
  • Improve the efficiency of cold chains for transportation and storage.
  • Design software that can optimize the harvesting, storage, transportation, stocking, and shelf life of produce.
  • Improve data collection on FLW, associated GHG emissions, and financial data across the supply chain.
  • Develop new non-plastic, biodegradable, low-carbon packaging materials.
  • Improve storage devices and facilities such as hermetic bags and metal silos.
  • Research technologies, practices, or nonharmful substances to prolong the lifespan of food.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Adopt behaviors to reduce FLW, including portion control, “eating what you take,” and reducing meat consumption.
  • Donate food that won’t be used or, if that’s not possible, use the food for animals or compost.
  • Advocate for bans on food waste in landfills.
  • Advocate for financial instruments such as taxes, subsidies, or exemptions to support infrastructure, technology, and enforcement.
  • Demand transparency around FLW from public and private organizations.
  • Educate yourself and those around you about the impacts and solutions.
  • Create, support, or join education campaigns and/or public-private partnerships that facilitate stakeholder discussions.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

A large volume of scientific research exists regarding reducing emissions of FLW effectively. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) estimates the mitigation potential of FLW reduction (through multiple reduction strategies) to be 2.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (with a range of 0.1–5.8 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr ) (Nabuurs et al., 2022). This accounts for savings along the whole value chain.

Following the 2011 FAO report – which estimated that around one-third (1.3 Gt) of food is lost and wasted worldwide per year – global coordination has prioritized the measurement of the FLW problem. This statistic has served as a baseline for multiple FLW reduction strategies. However, more recent studies suggest that the percentage of FLW may be closer to 40% (WWF, 2021). The median of the studies included in our analysis is 1.75 Gt/yr of FLW (FAO, 2024; Gatto & Chepeliev, 2024; Guo et al., 2020; Porter et al., 2016; UNEP, 2024; WWF, 2021; Zhu et al., 2023), with an annual increasing trend of 2.2%.

Only one study included in our analysis calculated food embodied emissions from all stages of the supply chain, while the rest focused on the primary production stages. Zhu et al. (2023) estimated 6.5 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr arising from the supply chain side, representing 35% of total food system emissions.

When referring to food types, meat and animal products were estimated to emit 3.5 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr compared to 0.12 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr from fruits and vegetables (Zhu et al., 2023). Although meat is emissions-intensive, fruits and vegetables are the most wasted types of food by volume, making up 37% of total FLW by mass (Chen et al., 2020). The consumer stage is associated with the highest share of global emissions at 36% of total supply-embodied emissions from FLW, compared to 10.9% and 11.5% at the retail and wholesale levels, respectively (Zhu et al., 2023). 

While efforts to measure the FLW problem are invaluable, critical gaps exist regarding evidence of the effectiveness of different reduction strategies across supply chain stages ( Cattaneo, 2021; Goossens, 2019; Karl et al., 2025). To facilitate impact assessments and cost-effectiveness, standardized metrics are required to report actual quantities of FLW reduced as well as resulting GHG emissions savings (Food Loss and Waste Protocol, 2024).

The results presented in this document summarize findings across 22 studies. These studies are made up of eight academic reviews and original studies, eight reports from NGOs, and six reports from public and multilateral organizations. This reflects current evidence from five countries, primarily the United States and the United Kingdom. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research for meta-analyses and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions and stages of the supply chain.

Updated Date
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Mobilize Electric Cars

Sector
Transportation
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Electrify Vehicles
Image
Electric car plugged into charging station
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Key Takeaways

  • Electric cars generally produce fewer GHGs per passenger-kilometer than fossil fuel–powered cars, particularly when charged with low-carbon electricity.
  • Global adoption of electric cars is growing rapidly, but it remains small relative to the more than 2 billion cars currently in use.
  • Electric cars can lower operating costs and eliminate tailpipe emissions compared with fossil fuel–powered cars, improving urban air quality and health.
  • Battery production, mineral extraction, charging infrastructure, and electricity-grid emissions can limit the overall benefits of electric cars.
Summary

Electric cars are four-wheeled passenger cars that run on electricity, usually from the electricity grid and stored in onboard batteries (i.e., not including fuel cell electric cars). This definition includes electric pickup trucks, motorhomes, and other such vehicles. It does not include two-wheeled vehicles or hybrid cars (which combine an electric motor with a gasoline or diesel engine). It also does not include freight and commercial vehicles, such as electric heavy trucks, buses, and ambulances. We define Mobilize Electric Cars as replacing fossil fuel–powered cars (i.e., those powered by internal combustion engines) with electric equivalents, as well as building out the necessary infrastructure (especially charging stations) to support them.

Income & work,Health
Water quality,Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Mobilize Electric Cars is a Highly Recommended climate solution. Electric cars slash air pollution and greenhouse gases, especially when powered by clean grids.
Overview

Electric cars provide the same functionality as fossil fuel–powered cars, but use electric motors rather than fuel-burning engines. The energy for the motors comes from an onboard battery, which is normally charged using electricity from the grid.

Electric cars have no direct tailpipe emissions, since electric motors do not burn fuel to function. The grid electricity used to charge their batteries may have come from fossil fuel-burning power plants, meaning electric cars are not entirely free of direct emissions. However, in most electrical grids, even those that mainly generate electricity from fossil fuels, electric cars usually still produce fewer emissions per pkm than fossil fuel–powered cars. This is for three reasons. First, large, fixed power plants and efficient electric grids can convert fossil fuels into useful energy more efficiently than smaller, mobile internal combustion engines in cars. In extreme cases, such as grids powered entirely by coal, this might not be the case, particularly if the grid has a lot of transmission and distribution losses. Second, the powertrain of an electric car delivers electricity from the battery to the wheels much more efficiently than the powertrain of a fossil fuel–powered car, which wastes much more energy as heat (International Transport Forum, 2020; Mofolasayo, 2023; Verma et al., 2022). Third, electric cars’ powertrains enable regenerative braking, where the kinetic energy of the car’s motion is put back into the battery when the driver brakes (Yang et al., 2024).

Electric cars reduce emissions of CO₂,  methane, and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere by replacing fuel-powered cars, which emit these gases from their tailpipes.

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Kittner, N., Tsiropoulos, I., Tarvydas, D., Schmidt, O., Staffell, I., & Kammen, D. M. (2020). Chapter 9—Electric vehicles. In M. Junginger & A. Louwen (Eds.), Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System (pp. 145–163). Academic Press. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818762-3.00009-1

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Cameron Roberts, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Heather Jones, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Jason Lam

  • Ted Otte

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.
Effectiveness

Every million pkm shifted from fossil fuel–powered cars to electric cars reduces 48.52 t CO₂‑eq on a 100-yr basis (Table 1), or 49.13 t CO₂‑eq on a 20-yr basis. 

We found this by collecting data on electricity consumption for a range of electric car models (Electric Vehicle Database, 2024) and multiplying it by the global average emissions per kWh of electricity generation. Fossil fuel–powered cars emit 115.3 t CO₂‑eq/million pkm on a 100-yr basis (116.4 t CO₂‑eq/million pkm on a 20-yr basis). Electric cars already have lower emissions in countries with large shares of renewable, nuclear, or hydropower generation in their electricity grids (International Transport Forum, 2020; Verma et al., 2022).

These data come disproportionately from North America and Europe, and, notably, leave out China, which has made major progress on electric cars in recent years and has many of its own makes and models. 

Electric cars today are disproportionately used in high- and upper-middle-income countries, whose electricity grids emit fewer GHG emissions than the global average per unit of electricity generated (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2024). Electric cars in use today reduce more emissions on average than the figure we have calculated. 

Electric cars have higher embodied emissions than fossil fuel–powered cars, due to the GHG-intensive process of manufacturing batteries. This gives them a carbon payback period which ranges from zero to over 10 years (Dillman et al., 2020; Ren et al., 2023).

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/million pkm, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 38.95
Mean 49.54
Median (50th percentile) 48.52
75th percentile 62.82

Shifted from fossil fuel–powered cars to electric cars, 100-yr basis.

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Cost

Including purchase price, financing, fuel and electricity costs, maintenance costs, and insurance, electric cars cost on average US$0.05 less per pkm (US$49,440/million pkm) than fuel-powered cars. This is based on a population-weighted average of the cost differential between electric and fossil fuel–powered cars in seven countries: Japan, South Korea, China, the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (Nickel Institute, 2021b, 2021c, 2021a). 

While this analysis found that electric cars are less expensive than fossil fuel–powered cars almost everywhere, the margin is often quite small. The difference is less than US$0.01/pkm (US$10,000/million pkm) in South Korea, the United States, and Germany. In some markets, electric cars are more expensive per pkm than fossil fuel–powered cars (IEA, 2022).

This amounts to savings of US$1,019/t CO₂‑eq on a 100-yr basis (Table 2), or US$1,006/t CO₂‑eq avoided emissions on a 20-yr basis). 

Our analysis does not include costs that are the same for both electric and fossil fuel–powered cars, including taxes, insurance costs, and public costs of building road infrastructure.

Table 2. Cost per unit climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq, 100-yr basis

Median -1,019
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

For every doubling in electric car production, costs decline by approximately 23% (Table 3; Goetzel & Hasanuzzaman, 2022; Kittner et al., 2020; Weiss et al., 2015). 

In addition to manufacturing improvements and economies of scale, this reflects rapid technological advancements in battery production, which is a significant cost component of an electric powertrain (Weiss et al., 2015).

Table 3. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of the deployed solution.

Unit: %

25th percentile 23.00
Mean 22.84
Median (50th percentile) 23.00
75th percentile 24.00
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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Mobilize Electric Cars is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

The effectiveness of electric cars in mitigating GHG emissions is critically dependent on the emissions associated with electricity production. In electricity grids dominated by fossil fuels, electric cars have far higher emissions than in jurisdictions with low-emission electricity generation (International Transport Forum [ITF], 2020; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2022; Milovanoff et al., 2020).

Electric car adoption faces a major obstacle in the form of constraints on battery production. While electric car battery production is being aggressively upscaled (IEA, 2024), building enough batteries to replace a significant fraction of fossil fuel–powered cars is an enormous challenge and will likely slow down a transition to electric cars, even if there is very high consumer demand (Milovanoff et al., 2020). 

Current Adoption

Approximately 28 million electric cars are in use worldwide (IEA, 2024). This corresponds to about 819,000 million pkm traveled by electric car worldwide each year (Table 4). We assume that all of this travel would be undertaken by a fossil fuel–powered car if the car’s occupants did not use an electric car. Adoption is much higher in some countries, such as Norway, where the share of electric cars was 29% in 2023.

To convert the IEA’s electric car estimates into pkm traveled, we needed to determine the average passenger-distance that each passenger car travels per year. Using population-weighted data from several different countries, the average car carries 1.5 people and travels an average of 29,250 pkm/yr. Multiplying this number by the number of electric cars in use gives the total travel distance shift from fossil fuel–powered cars to electric cars.

Table 4. Current (2024) adoption level.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Population-weighted mean 818,900

Implied travel shift from fossil fuel-powered cars to electric cars.

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Adoption Trend

Globally, about 104 billion pkm are displaced from fossil fuel–powered cars by electric cars every year (Table 5). The number of new electric cars purchased each year is growing at an average rate of over 10% (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2024; IEA, 2024), although purchase rates have declined slightly from record highs between 2020–2022. Global purchases of electric cars are still increasing by around 3.6 million cars/yr. This is based on globally representative data (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2024; IEA, 2024).

Despite this impressive rate of growth, electric cars still have a long way to go before they replace a large percentage of the more than 2 billion cars currently driven (WHO, 2024).

Table 5. 2023-2024 adoption trend.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Median, or population-weighted mean 104,000

Implied travel shift from fossil fuel-powered cars to electric cars.

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Adoption Ceiling

The adoption ceiling for electric cars is equal to the total passenger-distance driven by the more than 2 billion cars worldwide (WHO, 2024). Using a population-weighted mean of the average distance (in pkm) traveled per car annually, this translates to about 59 trillion pkm (Table 6).

Replacing every single fossil fuel–powered car with an electric car would require an enormous upscaling of electric car production capacity, rapid development of charging infrastructure, cost reductions to increase affordability, and technological improvements to improve suitability for more kinds of drivers and trips. It would also face cultural obstacles from drivers who are attached to fossil fuel–powered cars (Roberts, 2022).

Table 6. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Median, or population-weighted mean 59,140,000

Implied travel shift from fossil fuel-powered cars to electric cars.

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Achievable Adoption

The achievable adoption of electric car travel ranges from about 26–47 trillion pkm displaced from fossil fuel–powered cars (Table 7).

Various organizations have produced forecasts for electric car adoption. These are not assessments of feasible adoption per se; they are instead trying to predict likely rates of adoption, given various assumptions about the future (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2024; IEA, 2024). However, they are useful in that they take a large number of different variables into account to make their estimates. To convert these estimates of future likely adoption into estimates of the achievable adoption range, we apply some assumptions to the numbers in the scenario projections. 

To find a high rate of electric car adoption, we assume that every country could reach the highest rate of adoption projected to occur for any country. Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (2024) Economic Transition scenario predicts that Norway will reach an 80% electric vehicle stock share by 2040. We therefore set our high adoption rate at 80% worldwide. This corresponds to 1,617 million total electric cars in use, or 47 trillion pkm traveled by electric car. An important caveat is that with a global supply constraint in the production of electric car batteries, per-country adoption rates are somewhat zero-sum. Every electric car purchased in Norway is one that cannot be purchased elsewhere. Therefore, for the whole world to achieve an 80% electric car stock share, global electric car and battery production would have to increase radically. While this might be possible due to technological improvements or radical increases in investment, it should not be taken for granted.

To identify a lower feasible rate of electric car adoption, we simply take the highest estimate for global electric car adoption. Bloomberg’s Economic Transition scenario predicts 44% global electric car adoption by 2050. This corresponds to 890 million electric cars, or 26 trillion pkm.

Table 7. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Current adoption 818,900
Achievable – low 26020000
Achievable – high 47310000
Adoption ceiling (physical limit) 59140000
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Electric cars are currently displacing 0.040 Gt CO₂‑eq of GHG emissions from the transportation system on a 20-yr basis (Table 8), or 0.040 Gt CO₂‑eq on a 100-yr basis. 

If electric cars reach 44% of the global car stock share by 2040, as Bloomberg (2024) projects, without any change in the total number of cars on the road, they will displace 1.263 Gt CO₂‑eq GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis (1.279 Gt CO₂‑eq  on a 20-yr basis).

If electric cars globally reach 80% of car stock share, as Bloomberg projects might happen in Norway by 2040, they will displace 2.296 Gt CO₂‑eq GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis (2.325 Gt CO₂‑eq on a 20-yr basis).

If electric cars replace 100% of the global car fleet, they will displace 2.870 Gt CO₂‑eq  GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis (2.906 Gt CO₂‑eq on a 20-yr basis).

These numbers are based on the present-day average emissions intensity from electrical grids in countries with high rates of electric car adoption. If more clean energy is deployed on electricity grids, the total climate impact from electric cars will increase considerably.

Table 8. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.040
Achievable – low 1.263
Achievable – high 2.296
Adoption ceiling (physical limit) 2.870
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Additional Benefits

Health

Since electric cars do not have tailpipe emissions, they can mitigate traffic-related air pollution, which is associated with asthma, lung cancer, increased emergency department visits for respiratory disease, and increased mortality (Anenberg et al., 2019; Guarnieri & Balmes, 2014; Pan et al., 2023; Pennington et al., 2024; Requia et al., 2018; Szyszkowicz et al., 2018). Transitioning to electric cars can reduce exposure to air pollution, improve health, and prevent premature mortality (Garcia et al., 2023; Larson et al., 2021; Peters et al., 2020).

The health benefits of adopting electric cars vary spatially and partly depend upon how communities generate electricity (Choma et al., 2020), but there is evidence that they have improved health. A study in California found a reduction in emergency department visits in zip codes with an increase in zero-emissions cars (Garcia et al., 2023). By 2050, projections estimate that about 64,000–167,000 deaths could be avoided by adopting electric cars (Larson et al., 2021).

In the United States, communities with higher proportions of racial and ethnic minorities tend to be located near highways and major traffic corridors and so are disproportionately exposed to air pollution (Kerr et al., 2021). Transitioning to electric cars could improve health in marginalized urban neighborhoods that are located near highways, industry, or ports (Pennington et al., 2024). These benefits depend upon an equitable distribution of electric cars and infrastructure to support the adoption of electric cars (Garcia et al., 2023). Low-income households may not see the same savings from an electric car due to the cost and stability of electricity prices and distance to essential services (Vega-Perkins et al., 2023)

Income and Work

Adopting electric cars can reduce a household’s energy burden, or the proportion of income spent on residential energy (Vega-Perkins et al., 2023). About 90% of United States households that use a car could see a reduction in energy burden by transitioning to an electric car. Money spent to charge electric cars is more likely to stay closer to the local community where electricity is generated, whereas money spent on fossil fuels often benefits oil-producing regions. This benefits local and national economies by improving their trade balance (Melaina et al., 2016).

Water Quality

Substituting electric car charging points for gas stations can eliminate soil and water pollution from leaking underground gas tanks (Yoder, 2023). 

Air Quality

The adoption of electric cars reduces emissions of air pollutants, including sulfur oxides, sulfur dioxide, and nitrous oxides, and especially carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds. It has a smaller impact on particulate emissions (Requia et al., 2018). Some air pollution reductions are limited (particularly PM and ozone) due to heavier electric cars and pollution from brakes, tires, and wear on the batteries (Carey, 2023; Jones, 2019).

Risks

Mining minerals necessary to produce electric car batteries carries environmental and social risks. This has been associated with significant harms, particularly in lower-income countries that supply many of these minerals (Agusdinata et al., 2018; Sovacool, 2019).

Electric cars might also pose added safety risks due to their higher weight, which means they have longer stopping distances and can cause more significant damage in collisions and to pedestrians and cyclists (Jones, 2019). This risk includes dual-motor electric cars that incorporate two electric motors – one for the front axle and one for the rear – providing all-wheel drive (AWD) capabilities. The addition of a second motor increases the vehicle's weight and complexity, which can lead to higher energy consumption and reduced overall efficiency. Moreover, the increased manufacturing costs associated with dual-motor systems can result in higher purchase prices for consumers (Nguyen et al., 2023). However, this configuration enhances vehicle performance, offering improved acceleration, traction, and handling, particularly in adverse weather conditions, which are valued by some consumers. 

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Electric car batteries can potentially be used as stationary batteries for use as energy storage to balance electrical grids, either through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology or with degraded electric car batteries being installed in stationary battery farms as a form of reuse (Ravi & Aziz, 2022). 

The effectiveness of electric cars in reducing GHG emissions increases as electricity grids become cleaner, since lower-carbon electricity further reduces the emissions associated with car charging. 

Competing

Electric cars compete with heat pumps for electricity. Installing both heat pumps and electric cars could strain the electric grid’s capacity (Fakhrooeian et al., 2024).

Getting travelers onto bicycles, sidewalks, public transit networks, or smaller electric vehicles (such as electric bicycles) provides a greater climate benefit than getting them into electric cars. There is an opportunity cost to deploying electric cars because those resources could otherwise be used to support these more effective solutions (APEC, 2024).

Dashboard

Solution Basics

million passenger kilometers (million pkm)

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
038.9548.52median
units/yr
Current 818,900 02.602×10⁷4.731×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.04 1.2632.296
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-1,019
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

Electric car batteries are currently quite emissions-intensive to produce, resulting in high embodied emissions. While the embodied emissions are higher for electric cars than fossil fuel–powered cars, the results are mixed when coupling these with operating emissions. Dillman et al.’s (2020) review of the literature on this topic found that producing the average battery-electric car emits 63% more GHG emissions than the average gasoline-powered car, and 77% more GHG emissions than the average diesel-powered car. Taking their lower tailpipe emissions into account, this gives them a GHG payback period of zero to more than 10 years. In some cases, the emissions payback period is longer than the expected lifespan of the electric car, meaning it will have higher life cycle GHG emissions than a comparable gasoline or diesel-powered car. However, the International Transport Forum (ITF, 2020) found that the lifetime emissions from manufacturing, operation, and infrastructure are lower for electric cars. All of these studies relied on assumptions, including the type of car, size of battery, electricity grid, km/yr, and lifetime. 

There is some criticism against any solution that advocates for car ownership, contending that the focus should be on solutions such as Enhance Public Transit that reduce car ownership and usage. Jones (2019) noted “there is little evidence to suggest that EVs can offer the universal solution that global governments are seeking,” and that efforts to popularize electric cars “may be better directed at creating more efficient public transport systems, rather than supporting personal transportation, if the significant health disbenefits of car use during the past 150 years are to be in any way reduced.”

Milovanoff et al. (2020) offered similar criticism: “Closing the mitigation gap solely with EVs would require more than 350 million on-road EVs (90% of the fleet), half of national electricity demand, and excessive amounts of critical materials to be deployed in 2050. Improving [the] average fuel consumption of fossil fuel–powered vehicles, with stringent standards and weight control, would reduce the requirement for alternative technologies, but is unlikely to fully bridge the mitigation gap. There is therefore a need for a wide range of policies that include measures to reduce vehicle ownership and usage.”

Allocating the limited global battery supply to privately owned electric cars might undermine the deployment of other solutions that also require batteries, but are more effective at avoiding GHG emissions (Castelvecchi, 2021). These could include electric buses, electric rail, and electric bicycles.

Mt CO2-eq/yr
0–4
4–8
8–12
12–16
16–20
> 20
No data

Annual road transportation emissions, 2024

Cars are the largest source of vehicle emissions, which are shown here for urban areas.

Kott, T., Foster, K., Villafane-Delgado, M., Loschen, W., Sicurello, P., Ghebreselassie, M., Reilly, E., and Hughes, M. (2024). Transportation sector - Global road emissions. [Data set]. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL), Climate TRACE Emissions Inventory. Retrieved March 12, 2025, from Link to source: https://climatetrace.org

Mt CO2-eq/yr
0–4
4–8
8–12
12–16
16–20
> 20
No data

Annual road transportation emissions, 2024

Cars are the largest source of vehicle emissions, which are shown here for urban areas.

Kott, T., Foster, K., Villafane-Delgado, M., Loschen, W., Sicurello, P., Ghebreselassie, M., Reilly, E., and Hughes, M. (2024). Transportation sector - Global road emissions. [Data set]. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL), Climate TRACE Emissions Inventory. Retrieved March 12, 2025, from Link to source: https://climatetrace.org

Maps Introduction

Electric cars can effectively mitigate climate change in all geographic regions, although there is spatial variability that influences per-pkm effectiveness and potential solution uptake. Effectiveness heavily depends on the carbon intensity of the charging source, which varies greatly between and within countries. The effectiveness of electric cars decreases for larger vehicles, favored in some countries (Jones, 2019; Nguyen et al., 2023).  

The uptake of electric cars can be significantly influenced by socioeconomic factors, including the relative costs of fuels and electricity, the capacity of civil society to provide adequate charging infrastructure, and the availability of subsidies for electric vehicles.

Extreme temperatures can negatively impact vehicle range, both by slowing battery chemistry and increasing energy demands for regulating passenger compartment temperature, which can adversely affect consumers’ perceptions of electric car suitability in locations with such climates (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2024).

Electric cars are most effective in regions with low-carbon electricity grids (International Transport Forum, 2020; Verma et al., 2022). This includes countries with high hydro power (including Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and parts of Canada such as British Columbia and Quebec), nuclear energy (such as France), and renewables (including Portugal, New Zealand, and parts of the United States, including California and some of the Northwest) (IEA, 2024). Electric car adoption is growing rapidly in a number of regions. For future scaling, targeting countries with supportive policies, renewable energy potential, and growing urban populations will deliver the greatest climate benefits.

Action Word
Mobilize
Solution Title
Electric Cars
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Create government procurement policies to transition government fleets to electric cars.
  • Provide financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric car production and purchases that gradually reduce as market adoption increases.
  • Provide complimentary benefits for electric car drivers, such as privileged parking areas, free tolls, and access schemes.
  • Use targeted financial incentives to assist low-income communities in purchasing electric cars and to incentivize manufacturers to produce more affordable options.
  • Develop charging infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations.
  • Invest in R&D or implement regulations to improve manufacturing, adoption, supply chain standards, and circularity of electric cars, particularly batteries.
  • Transition fossil fuel electricity production to renewables while promoting the transition to electric cars.
  • Disincentivize fossil fuel–powered car ownership by gradually introducing taxes, penalties, buy-back programs, or other mechanisms.
  • Offer educational resources and one-stop shops for information on electric vehicles, including demonstrations, cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance.
  • Work with industry and labor leaders to construct new electric car plants and to transition fossil fuel–powered car manufacturing into electric car production.
  • Set regulations for sustainable use of electric car batteries and improve recycling infrastructure.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Incentivize or mandate life-cycle assessments and product labeling (e.g., Environmental Product Declarations).
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Produce and sell affordable electric car models.
  • Collaborate with dealers to provide incentives, low-interest financing, or income-based payment options.
  • Develop charging infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations.
  • Invest in R&D to improve manufacturing, adoption, supply chain standards, and circularity of electric cars, particularly batteries.
  • Offer educational resources and one-stop shops for information on electric cars, including demonstrations, cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance.
  • Work with policymakers and labor leaders to construct new electric car plants and to transition fossil fuel–powered car manufacturing into electric car production.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Invest in recycling and circular economy infrastructure.
  • Conduct life-cycle assessments and ensure product labeling (e.g., Environmental Product Declarations).
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Set company procurement policies to transition corporate fleets to electric cars.
  • Take advantage of any financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric car purchases.
  • Create long-term purchasing agreements with electric car manufacturers to support stable demand and improve economies of scale.
  • Install charging stations and offer employee benefits for electric car drivers, such as privileged parking areas.
  • Invest in R&D to improve manufacturing, adoption, supply chain standards, and circularity of electric cars, particularly batteries.
  • Work with industry and labor leaders to transition fossil fuel–powered car manufacturing into electric car production.
  • Advocate for financial incentives and policies that promote electric car adoption.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Educate customers and investors about the company's transition to electric cars and encourage them to learn more about them.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Set organizational procurement policies to transition fleets to electric cars.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric car purchases.
  • Advocate for financial incentives and policies that promote electric car adoption.
  • Install charging stations and offer employee benefits for electric car drivers, such as privileged parking areas.
  • Advocate for or provide improved charging infrastructure.
  • Offer workshops or support to low-income communities for purchasing and owning electric cars.
  • Work with industry and labor leaders to transition fossil fuel–powered car manufacturing into electric car production.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Advocate for regulations on lithium-ion batteries and investments in recycling facilities.
  • Offer educational resources and one-stop shops for information on electric cars, including demonstrations, cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

Investors
  • Invest in electric car companies.
  • Support portfolio companies in transitioning their corporate fleets.
  • Invest in companies that provide charging equipment or installation.
  • Invest in R&D to improve manufacturing, adoption, supply chain standards, and circularity of electric cars, particularly batteries.
  • Invest in electric car companies, associated supply chains, and end-user businesses like rideshare apps.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption. 

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Set organizational procurement policies to transition fleets to electric cars.
  • Install charging stations and offer employee benefits for electric car drivers, such as privileged parking areas.
  • Take advantage of any financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric car purchases.
  • Advocate for financial incentives and policies that promote electric car adoption.
  • Advocate for or provide improved charging infrastructure.
  • Offer financial services such as low-interest loans or grants for purchasing electric cars and charging equipment.
  • Offer workshops or support to low-income communities for purchasing and owning electric cars.
  • Work with industry and labor leaders to transition fossil fuel–powered car manufacturing into electric car production.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Advocate for regulations on lithium-ion batteries and investments in recycling facilities.
  • Offer educational resources and one-stop shops for information on electric cars, including demonstrations, cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • If purchasing a new car, buy an electric car.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric car purchases.
  • Share your experiences with electric cars through social media and peer-to-peer networks, highlighting the cost savings, benefits, incentive programs, and troubleshooting tips.
  • Advocate for financial incentives and policies that promote electric car adoption.
  • Advocate for improved charging infrastructure.
  • Help improve the circularity of electric car supply chains through design, advocacy, or implementation.
  • Conduct in-depth life-cycle assessments of electric cars in particular geographies.
  • Research ways to reduce weight and improve the performance of electric cars while appealing to customers.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Improve the circularity of supply chains for electric car components.
  • Reduce the amount of critical minerals required for electric car batteries.
  • Innovate low-cost methods to improve safety, labor standards, and supply chains in mining for critical minerals.
  • Research ways to reduce weight and improve the performance of electric cars while appealing to customers.
  • Develop vehicle-grid integration and feasible means of using the electrical capacity of electric cars to manage the broader grid.
  • Improve techniques to repurpose used electric car batteries for stationary energy storage.
  • Develop methods of converting fossil fuel–powered car manufacturing and infrastructure to electric.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • If purchasing a new car, purchase an electric car.
  • Take advantage of any financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric car purchases.
  • Share your experiences with electric cars through social media and peer-to-peer networks, highlighting the cost-savings, benefits, incentive programs, and troubleshooting tips.
  • Help shift the narrative around electric cars by demonstrating capability and performance.
  • Advocate for financial incentives and policies that promote electric car adoption.
  • Advocate for improved charging infrastructure.
  • Help improve ciricularity of electric car supply chains.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure that environmental and human rights standards are met for supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric car adoption.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing emissions: Mixed

There is a high level of consensus among major organizations and researchers working on climate solutions that electric cars offer a substantial reduction in GHG emissions compared to fossil fuel–powered cars. This advantage is strongest in places where electricity in the grid comes from sources with low GHG emissions, but it persists even if fossil fuels play a major role in energy production. 

Major climate research organizations generally see electric cars as the primary means of reducing GHG emissions from passenger transportation. This perspective has received criticism from some scholars who argue that electric cars have been overstated as a climate solution, pointing to supply constraints, embodied emissions, and emissions from electricity generation (Jones, 2019; Milovanoff et al., 2020). Embodied emissions are outside the scope of this assessment. 

The IPCC (2022) estimated well-to-wheel (upstream and downstream emissions) GHG emissions intensity from gasoline and diesel cars at 139 g CO₂‑eq/pkm and 107 g CO₂‑eq/pkm, respectively. They estimated that electric cars running on low-carbon electricity (solar, wind, and nuclear sourced) emit 9 g CO₂‑eq/pkm; electric cars running on natural gas electricity emit 104 g CO₂‑eq/pkm; and electric cars running entirely on coal electricity emit 187 g CO₂‑eq/pkm. These estimates include upstream emissions, such as those from oil refining and coal mining.

The IEA (2024) noted that “[a] battery electric car sold in 2023 will emit half as much as fossil fuel–powered equivalents over its lifetime. This includes full life-cycle emissions, including those from producing the car.” 

The ITF (2020) estimated that fossil fuel–powered cars emit 162 g CO₂‑eq/pkm, while electric cars emit 125 g CO₂‑eq/pkm. This included embodied and upstream emissions, which are outside the scope of this assessment.

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 15 reviews and meta-analyses and 24 original studies reflecting current evidence from 52 countries, primarily the IEA’s Electric Vehicle Outlook (2024), the Electric Vehicle Database (2024), the International Transportation Forum’s life cycle analysis on sustainable transportation (2020), and the Nickel Institute’s cost estimates on electric cars (Nickel Institute, 2021a, 2021b, 2021c). We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
Coming Soon

Mobilize Electric Seated Scooters & Motorcycles

Sector
Transportation
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Electrify Vehicles
Image
a pack of electric motorcycles
Coming Soon
Off

Key Takeaways

  • Electric seated scooters and motorcycles represent the most electrified road transport segment globally, with electric models representing about 9% of the fleet. 
  • Electric scooters and motorcycles produce substantially fewer GHG emissions than comparable fossil fuel–powered models.
  • Electric scooter and motorcycle adoption is growing rapidly, led by China and India but expanding across Latin America  and other emerging markets.
  • Electric scooters’ and motorcycles’ low operating costs, compact size, and charging flexibility make them well suited to urban and peri-urban travel, delivery, and passenger services.
  • Wider adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles requires affordable vehicles, safe and reliable charging, battery standards, and stronger road-safety measures.
Summary

Electric scooters and motorcycles are battery-powered two- and three-wheeled vehicles that provide low-emissions mobility. This category of transport includes electric mopeds, motorbikes, seated motor scooters, motorcycles, and three-wheel vehicles, such as e-rickshaws and e-tuk-tuks. Electric scooters and motorcycles run on rechargeable batteries and are powered by electric motors rather than fossil fuel–powered internal combustion engines (ICEs), helping reduce transport-related GHG emissions. Pedal-assist (pedelecs) are covered in our Mobilize Electric Bicycles solution. Standing e-scooters/trotinettes and throttle-assisted bicycles are excluded because shared models have a short life cycle and in general are less beneficial from a climate standpoint than walking and biking, which they tend to replace (Fearnley & Veisten, 2025).

Income & work,Health
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Mobilize Electric Scooters & Motorcycles is a highly recommended climate solution.
Overview

Electric scooters and motorcycles use electricity stored in batteries to power an electric motor, providing mobility similar to conventional fossil fuel–powered two- and three-wheelers while generating significantly lower GHG emissions because they replace fossil-fuel combustion with electricity (Barreiros, 2020; Carranza et al., 2022; Cox & Mutel, 2018; International Transport Forum, 2020, 2023b; La Fleur et al., 2024; Mera & Bieker, 2023; Montoya-Torres et al., 2023; Schneider at al., 2023; Tuayharn et al., 2015). 

Because of their efficiency, compact size, and affordability, electric scooters and motorcycles are particularly effective as transportation modes in urban and peri-urban areas. These vehicles are a low-emissions transport mode, especially when powered with renewable electricity. Electric scooters and motorcycles are also increasingly used for delivery services, shared fleets, ride-hailing, and formal and informal shared rental systems, helping displace car or fossil fuel–powered motorcycle trips that typically result in high per-person GHG emissions.

Safety issues, informal charging infrastructure, and concerns surrounding equitable access are the principal challenges standing in the way of broader adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles, particularly in emerging economies where most electric two- and three-wheelers operate (La Fleur et al., 2024). Meanwhile, emissions benefits related to electric scooters and motorcycles are typically lower in regions with carbon-intensive electricity. These vehicles may also offer fewer GHG emissions reductions benefits in areas with strong pre-existing public transportation systems, especially if broader adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles triggers a decrease in public transit use. Finally, electric two- and three-wheelers generate higher GHG emissions and provide fewer health benefits than do pedal-assisted electric bicycles; nevertheless, electric scooters and motorcycles remain far more efficient than cars in terms of GHG emissions (International Transport Forum, 2020).

In addition to reducing emissions of GHGs such as CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide, electric scooters and motorcycles eliminate tailpipe pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, lower fossil-fuel use, and reduce noise (International Transport Forum, 2023a). They also provide an immediate and practical pathway for creating cleaner, more equitable cities.

References

Anenberg, S., Miller, J., Henze, D., & Minjares, R. (2019). A global snapshot of the air pollution-related health impacts of transportation sector emissions in 2010 and 2015 [Report]. International Council on Clean Transportation. Link to source: https://theicct.org/publication/a-global-snapshot-of-the-air-pollution-related-health-impacts-of-transportation-sector-emissions-in-2010-and-2015/ 

Anup, S., Deo, A., & Bandivadekar, A. (2021). Impact of fuel consumption standard on electrification of two-wheelers in India [Technical paper 2021-26-0050]. SAE International. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.4271/2021-26-0050

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Credits

Lead Fellows

  • Heather Jones, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Nina-Francesca Farac, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Electric scooters and motorcycles offer savings of 54.4 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm on a 100-year basis, compared with fossil fuel–powered models (Table 1) (Ayetor et al., 2023; Barreiros, 2020; Carranza et al., 2022; Cox & Mutel, 2018; International Transport Forum, 2020, 2023b; Mera & Bieker, 2023; Montoya-Torres et al., 2023; Polanco Vásquez et al., 2025; Schneider et al., 2023; Tuayharn et al., 2015). Every trip shifted from fossil fuel–powered models to electric models helps avoid GHG emissions by eliminating tailpipe emissions and replacing gasoline combustion with electricity use. Effectiveness is calculated by subtracting the per-pkm operating-phase emissions of electric models from the per-pkm operating-phase emissions of conventional fossil fuel–powered models. Furthermore, per-pkm emissions decrease as vehicle occupancy increases.

The extent of electric scooters and motorcycles’ long-term climate benefits across the vehicles’ life cycle depends on the local charging electricity grid mix. Widespread adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles supported by low-carbon grids delivers large GHG emissions reductions, while electric scooter and motorcycle usage supported by fossil fuel–dominant grids narrows the emissions advantage over ICE models (Jaramillio et al., 2022). The effectiveness of electric scooters and motorcycles is likely an underestimate in many cities, particularly in Africa, where these vehicles are well positioned to replace old two-stroke motorcycles that generate high levels of pollution due to poor maintenance, counterfeit spare parts, and weak GHG emissions enforcement (Wanyama et al., 2024).

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /million pkm, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 29.9
Mean 48.2
Median (50th percentile) 54.4
75th percentile 60.6
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Cost

While it costs US$0.08/pkm to operate a fossil fuel–powered scooter or motorcycle, it costs only US$0.06/pkm for an electric model. This results in savings of US$0.02/pkm (US$20,800/million pkm) (Ayetor et al., 2023; Carranza et al., 2022; Cox & Mutel, 2018; Kumar, 2020; Kumar & Chakrabarty, 2020; La Fleur et al., 2024; Patil et al., 2022). These direct financial costs include vehicle purchase, maintenance expenses, and fuel. As a result, relying on electric models instead of their fossil fuel–powered counterparts generates a savings of US$382/t CO₂‑eq on a 100-year basis (Table 2).

Electric scooters and motorcycles also have a lower total operating cost than do fossil fuel–powered models, despite a higher initial purchase price. This is evident in a few African countries – including Ghana, Mauritius, Rwanda, Kenya, and South Africa – due to the high cost of gasoline compared with electricity (Ayetor et al., 2023). In Ghana, gasoline cost US$7.13/gallon in 2023 while electricity cost US$0.04/kWh (Ayetor et al., 2023). However, the price difference between gasoline and electricity is much less in other countries, such as Egypt, India, and Spain (Ayetor et al., 2023; Carranza et al., 2022; Cox & Mutel, 2018; Kumar & Chakrabarty, 2020; La Fleur et al., 2024; Patil et al., 2022; United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP], 2023).

In most countries, the payback period for electric scooter and motorcycle users is about three to four years (IEA, 2020) and as short as one year with intensive use (UNEP, 2023). Other countries, such as Pakistan, have reported a payback period as low as four to six months, while India reports a payback period ranging from one to eight years (Zia et al., 2025; Patil et al., 2022).

Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq ,100-year basis

Median -382
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Very little literature exists exploring learning rates for electric scooters and motorcycles. In this analysis, we estimated a learning rate of just over 5% based on the median battery learning rate (13.5%) applied to the median battery portion (40%) of total cost (Table 3). Weiss et al. (2015) calculated a learning rate of 8% for all electric two-wheelers combined, including electric bicycles, scooters, and motorcycles. 

Lithium-ion battery prices fell 97% during the past three decades, plummeting from US$7,500/kWh in 1991 to US$181/kWh in 2018. More importantly, lithium-ion battery costs halved between 2014–2018, while capacity increased by a factor of 50,000 over the same period. 

Continuing the recent trend, battery prices declined another 8% from 2024 to 2025, dropping to US$108/kWh in 2025 (BloombergNEF, 2025). While the component of the learning rate linked to decreases in the price of lithium-ion batteries is expected to diminish in the coming years, advances in materials, design, technology, and the use of different battery types may contribute to future learning rate increases. 

Table 3. Learning rate: Drop in cost per doubling of the installed solution base.

Unit: %

25th percentile 4.2
Mean 5.4
Median (50th percentile) 5.4
75th percentile 6.7
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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Mobilize Electric Seated Scooters & Motorcycles is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

The climate effectiveness of electric scooters and motorcycles depends strongly on the GHG emissions intensity of the electricity used for charging (Jaramillo et al., 2022). Additionally, it is important to consider that real-world performance and user acceptance of electric scooters and motorcycles can hinge on charging convenience and reliability. Even though many models can charge from standard sockets and some can use swapping, limited access to safe, affordable charging at home, work, or in public can constrain the degree to which electric scooters and motorcycles can be driven in practice (IEA, 2025b). Finally, in places where battery swapping is part of the charging strategy for electric scooters and motorcycles, the lack of common standards and interoperability (including battery form factors, connectors, communication protocols, and locking interfaces) can fragment markets and limit cross-brand usability, reducing the convenience benefits that swapping is meant to provide. 

Current Adoption

With approximately 79 million electric scooters and motorcycles in use worldwide – which corresponds to roughly 9% of the total global stock of nearly 859 million scooters and motorcycles (IEA, 2025a) – we estimated that electric scooters and motorcycles travel 865 billion pkm/yr (Table 4). We assumed this travel would occur on fossil fuel–powered scooters and motorcycles if electric scooters and motorcycles were not used. Adoption rates of electric scooters and motorcycles are much higher in countries such as China, where the global electric scooters and motorcycles stock share in 2024 was 39%.

To convert this number into pkm traveled via electric scooters and motorcycles, we needed to determine the median distance that each scooter and motorcycle travels per year. Using data from several different countries, the median scooter and motorcycle travels about 10,950 vehicle-kilometers (vkm)/yr. The vehicle occupancy was assumed to be one passenger per vehicle (International Transport Forum, 2020), making vkm equal to pkm. While occupancy is likely higher, reliable data are scarce; however, generally speaking increases in occupancy reduce GHG emissions and lower cost per pkm. Multiplying this number by the number of electric scooters and motorcycles in use (79 million) provides the total travel distance shifted (865 billion pkm/yr) from fossil fuel–powered scooters and motorcycles to their electric equivalents.

Table 4. Current (2024) adoption level.

Unit: million pkm/yr

25th percentile 409,000
Mean 1,336,000
Median (50th percentile) 865,000
75th percentile 1,580,000
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Adoption Trend

Globally, the pkm driven via electric scooters and motorcycles rather than via fossil fuel–powered scooters and motorcycles increases by a median of about 107 billion pkm/yr (Table 5). Electric scooters and motorcycles purchases grew 22%/yr between 2019–2024 (IEA, 2025a). Global purchases of electric scooters and motorcycles are increasing by roughly 10 million vehicles/yr (IEA, 2025a).

Table 5. 2019–2024 adoption trend.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Total 107,000
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Adoption Ceiling

The total adoption ceiling for electric scooters and motorcycles is equal to the total passenger distance driven via scooters and motorcycles worldwide. Using the median distance traveled per vehicle annually, this translates to about 9.4 trillion pkm traveled per year (Table 6).

Replacing every fossil fuel–powered scooter and motorcycle with an electric scooter or motorcycle would require not only a major scale-up of electric scooter and motorcycle manufacturing (both vehicles and batteries), but also the rapid deployment of convenient charging options at homes, workplaces, and public locations, and cost reductions to make the purchase price of electric models affordable across income groups. While ambitious, this transition is technically possible. Electric scooters and motorcycles are already being produced at scale in several markets with new capacity being quickly added. Meanwhile, continued declines in battery cost – plus expanding charging and battery-swapping networks – can make widespread replacement both practical and cost-effective (IEA, 2025a).

Table 6. Adoption ceiling

Unit: million pkm/yr

25th percentile 4,444,000
Mean 14,526,000
Median (50th percentile) 9,403,000
75th percentile 17,174,000
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Achievable Adoption

The achievable adoption of electric scooter and motorcycle travel is roughly 6–8 trillion pkm/yr shifted from fossil fuel–powered ICE vehicles.

Various organizations and researchers have forecast future electric scooter and motorcycle adoption trends. These are not assessments of feasible adoption per se; rather, they are predictions of likely rates of adoption, given various assumptions about the future (Anup et el., 2021; Gupta et al., 2023; IEA, 2025a; Kumar & Singh, 2024; UNEP, 2023). Nevertheless, these forecasts are useful considering the sheer number of variables they take into account. To convert these estimates of future likely adoption into estimates of the achievable adoption range, we applied some optimistic assumptions to the numbers in the scenario projections. 

To identify a lower feasible rate of adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles, we took the highest projected rate of electric scooters and motorcycles stock share by 2030, which was 60% in India according to Anup et al. (2021). This translates to 515 million electric scooters and motorcycles – or 5.6 trillion pkm/yr traveled via electric scooters and motorcycles.

To identify a high rate of adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles, we assumed that every country could reach the highest rate of adoption projected to occur for any country. Kumar and Singh (2024) predict that India could reach 80% electric scooters and motorcycles sales share by 2030; such a high share of sales would allow the stock share to quickly approach the rate of sales. We therefore set our high adoption rate at 80% adoption worldwide, which corresponds to 687 million electric scooters and motorcycles in use and 7.5 trillion pkm/yr traveled via electric scooters and motorcycles (Table 7). 

Table 7. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Current adoption 865,000
Achievable – low 5,642,000
Achievable – high 7,522,000
Adoption ceiling (physical limit) 9,403,000
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Electric scooters and motorcycles currently displace 0.05 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of GHG emissions from the transportation system on a 100-yr basis (Table 8). 

If electric scooters and motorcycles achieve 60% of the global scooters and motorcycles stock share – as Anup et al. (2021) projects will take place in India (our low achievable adoption estimate) – then with the current total number of scooters and motorcycles on the road, electric scooters and motorcycles will displace 0.31 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis.

If electric scooters and motorcycles reach 80% of global scooters and motorcycles stock share – our high achievable adoption estimate, as Kumar and Singh (2024) estimate might eventually happen in sales (that would lead to stock) in India – they will displace 0.41 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis.

And if electric scooters and motorcycles replace 100% of the global fleet of scooters and motorcycles – the adoption ceiling – they will displace 0.51 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis.

These estimates are based on the present-day emissions intensity from electrical grids; if grids become cleaner over time, the cumulative climate benefits of electric scooters and motorcycles would be even greater.

Table 8. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.05
Achievable – low 0.31
Achievable – high 0.41
Adoption ceiling (physical limit) 0.51
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

While the up-front cost of electric scooters and motorcycles is generally higher than that of fossil fuel–powered ICE scooters and motorcycles, electric scooter users and motorcyclists can save money on fuel costs once the initial costs are covered. Depending on mileage driven and fuel costs, the up-front cost can usually be recouped in three to four years (IEA, 2020) or if used intensively, in about one year (UNEP, 2023).

Health

Since electric scooters and motorcycles do not have tailpipe emissions, they can mitigate exposure to traffic-related air pollution, which is associated with asthma, lung cancer, increased emergency department visits for respiratory disease, and increased mortality (Anenberg et al., 2019; Guarnieri & Balmes, 2014; Pan et al., 2023; Pennington et al., 2024; Requia et al., 2018; Szyszkowicz et al., 2018). Fossil fuel–powered motorcycles also emit toxic compounds such as benzene, formaldehyde, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which are associated with increased cancer risk and short-term respiratory conditions (Kamakaté & Gordon, 2009). 

Communities rich in racial and ethnic minorities tend to be located near highways and major traffic corridors, making those communities disproportionately exposed to air pollution compared to neighboring areas (Kerr et al., 2021). As a result, transitioning to electric scooters and motorcycles could improve community health in marginalized urban neighborhoods near highways (Pennington et al., 2024). These health benefits would prove particularly important for people in densely populated cities – especially in low- and middle-income countries where scooters and motorcycles are widely used and where air quality is often poor (La Fleur et al., 2024). It should be noted some of these benefits depend on the type of fuel used for electricity generation and could displace air pollution from urban centers to more rural areas near power plants. 

Fossil fuel–powered ICE scooters and motorcycles can be very noisy, especially if they are not maintained regularly. In urban areas where motorcycles are a common choice for transportation, adopting electric motorcycles could improve noise pollution, which is a major chronic concern in cities across Asia and Africa (Kamakaté & Gordon, 2009; Hernandez et al., 2019; Sheng et al., 2016).

Air Quality

With the rapid growth of scooter use in urban areas of low- and middle-income countries, more widespread adoption of electric scooters could improve air pollution in densely populated areas where air quality is often a major concern. Increased adoption of electric scooters and motorcycles also reduces emissions of air pollutants associated with tailpipes, including particulate matter, sulfur oxides, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds (Requia et al., 2018). 

Risks

Electricity often costs less per pkm than gasoline, and electric scooter and motorcycle maintenance can be cheaper than maintenance for fossil fuel–powered ICE scooters and motorcycles. These factors lower marginal travel costs, which may increase pkm traveled for some users – partially offsetting GHG emissions benefits. This is a form of the rebound effect, where efficiency gains are offset by increased travel demand (Jaramillo et al., 2022).

If electric scooter and motorcycle fleets grow at a rate that outpaces the implementation of relevant safety measures, road safety could worsen given scooters and motorcycles already account for a large share of road traffic deaths worldwide. Rapid uptake of electric scooters and motorcycles in the absence of safer infrastructure, speed management, helmets, and enforcement could increase injuries and fatalities (World Health Organization [WHO], 2022). 

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Electric scooters and motorcycles reinforce non-car transportation modes by extending reach, offering first- and last-mile connections, and providing flexible options where fixed-route services are limited.

Competing 

Electric scooters and motorcycles compete with alternatives to cars for the same traffic share. Once people have access to a scooter or motorcycle – electric or otherwise – they tend to use it frequently, to the detriment of other modes of transportation.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

million passenger kilometers (million pkm)

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
029.954.4median
units/yr
Current 865,000 05.642×10⁶7.522×10⁶
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.05 0.310.41
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-382
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

Many electric scooters and motorcycles can charge from a standard household socket. Some areas also have battery swapping, meaning that infrastructure requirements for electric scooters and motorcycles are much lower than those for electric cars. However, there are still infrastructure requirements associated with electric scooter and motorcycle usage because riders need reliable, safe, and affordable access to charging or swapping, which can be a barrier for people who park on-street, live in multi-unit housing, or lack secure electricity access. For high-utilization commercial users such as delivery riders or motorcycle taxis, availability and uptime are critical, whereas downtime can lead to reduced earnings and weaken the business case for electrification (IEA, 2025b).

Action Word
Mobilize
Solution Title
Electric Seated Scooters & Motorcycles
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set national goals for transitioning transportation to low- and no-emission vehicles; include ambitious targets for shifting to electric models of scooters and motorcycles.
  • Create government procurement policies to transition government fleets to electric models of scooters and motorcycles.
  • Provide financial incentives – such as subsidies, tax breaks, grants, and low-interest loans – for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers; provide targeted incentives and support for battery-swapping stations to help develop the market for electric scooters and motorcycles; offer financial assistance to low- and middle-income communities to purchase electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Collaborate at the international level to develop manufacturing and safety standards to facilitate trade and adoption.
  • Simultaneously transition fossil-fuel electricity production to renewables while promoting the transition to electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Implement performance and emissions standards; gradually increase stringency of standards; consider phasing out fossil fuel–powered ICE vehicles; simultaneously unroll incentive policies to make adoption both easier and more affordable for retailers and drivers alike.
  • Develop charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations; consider regulations to require standard sockets in electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Construct dedicated lanes for scooters and motorcycles in addition to protected lanes for nonmotorized vehicles and e-bikes; include guardrails and/or demarcations to separate dedicated lanes from other traffic; construct bypasses around bus stops and public transportation; dedicate tunnels and passages, if necessary, to improve safety; optimize traffic signals to ensure traffic flow isn’t disrupted.
  • Set green manufacturing standards – including incentives or requirements for products such as green aluminum and steel – if possible and practicable. 
  • Develop recovery and recycling programs for both electric and fossil fuel–powered ICE models; implement buyback programs to facilitate upgrades to electric scooters and motorcycles; set minimum standards for recyclability and to guarantee the inclusion of recycled materials in electric scooters and motorcycles, and gradually increase the stringency of those standards; set clear guidelines for collection points for recycled materials and adhere to standards for acceptable origins of recycled materials. 
  • Collaborate with industry leaders to develop battery standards for performance, interoperability, and battery-swapping stations, and diversify supply chains for batteries and other necessary components to enhance domestic production capabilities.
  • Set standards for carbon emissions, raw material usage, water footprint, and environmental impact for batteries on the market; gradually increase stringency of those standards to reduce environmental impact; encourage or require battery components to be recyclable and use recycled material when possible; set legal requirements for batteries to be replaceable; consider requiring the use of product passports for batteries, ensuring the passport includes operationally-relevant information such as diagnostics, individual identification numbers, and information on repair, reuse, and recycling (in addition to environmental impact information). 
  • Increase funding for agencies responsible for road safety and ensure strong enforcement of safety regulations; rapidly expand safety measures such as improving infrastructure and road conditions, enforcing speed management, implementing legal requirements for helmets, and introducing load limits to reduce risks; support public education initiatives and the creation of visible road signage; encourage the use of reflective gear and protective clothing for drivers and passagers; develop and enforce laws related to alcohol impairment while driving; consider mandating speed governors.
  • Create and/or mandate dedicated parking spots for electric scooters and motorcycles, ensuring equitable distribution; include incentives for placing charging and battery-swapping stations at these lots if possible.
  • Extend vehicle recall and audit programs to include electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Require compulsory skill testing for licenses or permits to drive scooters and motorcycles; offer retraining programs for drivers upgrading to electric scooters and motorcycles from their fossil fuel–powered equivalents; require vehicle registration and offer green vehicle designations for preferential treatment for parking and access to recreational parks.
  • Support workforce development programs to improve technician and retailer skills and knowledge; create focused programs for handling and repairing batteries and tire repair; ensure workforce development programs include and seek to recruit women technicians; create dedicated hotlines for discrimination in the sector.
  • Expand taxi regulations to include electric scooters and motorcycles; require specific permits and safety features for these taxis.
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Offer one-stop shops for information on electric scooters and motorcycles, including demonstrations and educational resources on cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance; include information helpdesks to support retailers and consumers. 
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Help policymakers set national goals for transitioning transportation to low- and no-emission vehicles; assist policymakers in developing ambitious targets for shifting to electric scooter and motorcycle models.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives to sell, repair, recycle, or manufacture electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Ensure electric scooters and motorcycles include standard safety features such as anti-lock brake systems, daytime running headlights, and diagnostic dashboards to alert drivers to maintenance issues.
  • Develop charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations.
  • Sell safety equipment and consider offering deals that include helmets, reflective gear, and protective clothing for those purchasing an electric scooter or motorcycle.
  • Invest in R&D to improve manufacturing, adoption, supply chain standards, and circularity of electric scooters and motorcycles, particularly batteries.
  • Offer warranties for both vehicles and batteries comparable or better than warranties offered for fossil fuel–powered ICE models.
  • Create vehicle- and ride-sharing schemes for electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Work with policymakers and other industry leaders to diversify supply chains and create domestic production capabilities.
  • Recycle and recover material from batteries as quickly as possible – and avoid hoarding batteries in expectation of future compensation – to improve the circularity of the industry. 
  • Gather consent-based data on rider information and patterns; make onboard interfaces compatible with WiFi; update software regularly to improve performance, facilitate driver feedback, and increase product longevity. 
  • Develop, create, or work with battery-swapping businesses, helping promote interoperability and customer awareness; consider models such as leasing and battery-as-a-service, which allow customers to use and swap batteries without owning them.
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Offer one-stop shops for information on electric scooters and motorcycles, including demonstrations and educational resources on cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance; include information helpdesks to support retailers and consumers. 
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Set company procurement policies to transition corporate fleets to electric models of scooters and motorcycles.
  • Take advantage of any financial incentives, such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric scooter and motorcycle purchases.
  • Create long-term purchasing agreements with manufacturers to support stable demand and improve economies of scale.
  • Install charging and battery-swapping stations; offer employee benefits for electric scooter or motorcycle drivers, such as privileged parking areas.
  • Invest in R&D to improve manufacturing, adoption, supply chain standards, and circularity of electric scooters and motorcycles, particularly batteries.
  • Advocate for financial incentives and policies that promote electric scooter and motorcycle adoption.
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Educate customers and investors about the company's transition to electric models of scooters and motorcycles; encourage them to learn more about these alternatives to fossil fuel–powered scooters and motorcycles.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Work with policymakers to help set national goals for transitioning transportation to low- and no-emission vehicles; assist policymakers in developing ambitious targets for shifting to electric scooter and motorcycle model adoption.
  • Advocate for financial incentives for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers, such as subsidies, tax breaks, grants, and low-interest loans; recommend providing targeted incentives and support for battery-swapping stations to help develop the market for electric scooters and motorcycles; offer financial assistance to low- and middle-income communities to purchase electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Work at the international level to develop manufacturing and safety standards to facilitate trade and adoption.
  • Advocate to transition fossil fuel electricity production to renewables while promoting the transition to electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Push for ambitious performance and emissions standards; suggest gradually increasing stringency of standards; consider advocating for the phasing out of fossil fuel–powered ICE vehicles; advocate simultaneously for public incentives to make adoption easier and affordable for retailers and drivers alike.
  • Help develop, plan, and design charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations; advocate for regulations to require standard sockets in electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Develop recovery and recycling programs for both electric and fossil fuel–powered ICE models; offer buyback programs to facilitate upgrades to electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for minimum standards for recyclability and to guarantee the inclusion of recycled materials in electric scooters and motorcycles, and gradually increase the stringency of those standards; help set clear guidelines for collection points for recycled materials and adhere to standards for acceptable origins of recycled materials. 
  • Collaborate with policymakers and key industry players to develop battery standards for performance, interoperability, and battery swapping stations. 
  • Work with policymakers and industry leaders to diversify supply chains for batteries and other necessary components and create domestic production capabilities.
  • Help set standards for carbon emissions, raw material use, water footprint, and environmental impact for batteries on the market; advocate for the gradual increase of standards to reduce environmental impact; advocate for requirements for battery components to be recyclable and use recycled material when possible; help set legal requirements for batteries to be replaceable; advocate for the use of product passports for batteries, ensuring the passport includes operationally-relevant information such as diagnostics, individual identification numbers, and information on repair, reuse, and recycling (in addition to environmental impact information). 
  • Advocate for increased funding for agencies responsible for road safety and encourage strong enforcement of safety regulations; help plan for expanding safety measures, such as improving infrastructure and road conditions, enforcing speed management, implementing legal requirements for helmets, and introducing load limits to reduce risks; support public education initiatives and the creation of visible road signage; encourage the use of reflective gear and protective clothing for drivers and passengers; develop and enforce laws for alcohol impairment while driving; consider mandating speed governors.
  • Call on policymakers to require dedicated parking spots for electric scooters and motorcycles, ensuring equitable distribution; advocate for incentives for placing charging and battery-swapping infrastructure at these lots if possible.
  • Administer vehicle recall and audit programs for electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Offer road-safety retraining programs for drivers upgrading to electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for green vehicle designations and preferential treatment for parking and access to recreational parks.
  • Develop and/or support workforce development programs to improve technician and retailer skills and knowledge; create focused programs for handling and repairing batteries and tire repair; ensure workforce development programs include and seek to recruit women technicians; create dedicated hotlines for discrimination in the sector.
  • Offer one-stop shops for information on electric scooters and motorcycles, including demonstrations and educational resources on cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance; include information helpdesks to support retailers and consumers. 
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Investors
  • Invest in electric scooter and motorcycle companies and start-ups, including battery and component suppliers.
  • Explore investment opportunities that address supply chain issues such as battery suppliers and maintenance providers.
  • Invest in companies conducting R&D to improve electric scooter and motorcycle performance, decrease the need for materials, and reduce maintenance costs.
  • Invest in electric scooter- and motorcycle-sharing systems.
  • Offer concessional financing for companies transitioning fleets to electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Invest in companies developing charging and battery-swapping infrastructure for electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Work with policymakers to help set national goals for transitioning transportation to low- and no-emission vehicles; assist policymakers in developing ambitious targets for shifting to electric models of scooters and motorcycles.
  • Advocate for financial incentives for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers, such as subsidies, tax breaks, grants, and low-interest loans; recommend providing targeted incentives and support for battery-swapping stations to help develop the market for electric scooters and motorcycles; offer financial assistance to low- and middle-income communities to purchase electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Provide grants for electric scooter and motorcycle companies and start-ups, including battery and component suppliers.
  • Explore opportunities that address supply chain issues such as battery suppliers and maintenance providers.
  • Offer financing for companies conducting R&D to improve electric scooter and motorcycle performance, decrease the need for materials, and reduce maintenance costs.
  • Support systems for sharing electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Offer grants or financing for companies developing charging and battery-swapping infrastructure for electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Work at the international level to develop manufacturing and safety standards to facilitate trade and adoption.
  • Advocate to transition fossil-fuel electricity production to renewables while promoting the transition to electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Push for ambitious performance and emissions standards; suggest gradually increasing stringency of standards; consider advocating for the phasing out of fossil fuel–powered ICE vehicles; advocate simultaneously for public incentives to make adoption easier and affordable for retailers and drivers alike.
  • Help develop, plan, and design charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations; advocate for regulations to require standard sockets in electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Develop recovery and recycling programs for both electric and fossil fuel–powered ICE models; offer buyback programs to facilitate upgrades to electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for minimum standards for recyclability and to guarantee the inclusion of recycled materials in electric scooters and motorcycles, and gradually increase the stringency of those standards; help set clear guidelines for collection points for recycled materials and adhere to standards for acceptable origins of recycled materials. 
  • Collaborate with policymakers and the industry to develop battery standards for performance, interoperability, and battery-swapping stations.
  • Work with policymakers and industry leaders to diversify supply chains for batteries and other necessary components and create domestic production capabilities.
  • Help set standards for carbon emissions, raw material use, water footprint, and environmental impact for batteries on the market; advocate for the gradual increase of standards to reduce impact; advocate for requirements for battery components to be recyclable and use recycled material when possible; help set legal requirements for batteries to be replaceable; advocate for the use of product passports for batteries, ensuring the passport includes operationally relevant information such as diagnostics, individual identification numbers, and information on repair, reuse, and recycling (in addition to environmental impact information). 
  • Advocate for or provide increased funding for agencies responsible for road safety and encourage strong enforcement of safety regulations; help plan for expanding safety measures such as improving infrastructure and road conditions, enforcing speed management, implementing legal requirements for helmets, and introducing load limits to reduce risks; support public education initiatives and the creation of visible road signage; encourage the use of reflective gear and protective clothing for drivers and passengers; advocate for laws for alcohol impairment while driving; consider mandating speed governors.
  • Call on policymakers to require dedicated parking spots for electric scooters and motorcycles, ensuring equitable distribution; advocate for incentives for placing charging and battery swapping infrastructure at these lots if possible.
  • Support or help administer vehicle recall and audit programs for electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Offer or support road safety retraining programs for drivers upgrading to electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for green vehicle designations and preferential treatment for parking and access to recreational parks.
  • Develop and/or support workforce development programs to improve technician and retailer skills and knowledge; create focused programs for handling and repairing batteries and tire repair; ensure workforce development programs include and seek to recruit women technicians; create dedicated hotlines for discrimination in the sector.
  • Offer one-stop shops for information on electric scooters and motorcycles, including demonstrations and educational resources on cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance; include information helpdesks to support retailers and consumers. 
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Help policymakers set national goals for transitioning transportation to low- and no-emission vehicles; assist policymakers in developing ambitious targets for shifting to electric models of scooters and motorcycles.
  • Advocate for financial incentives for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers, such as subsidies, tax breaks, grants, and low-interest loans; recommend providing targeted incentives and support for battery-swapping stations to help develop the market for electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for financial assistance for low- and middle-income communities to purchase electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Work at the international level to develop manufacturing and safety standards to facilitate trade and adoption.
  • Advocate to transition fossil fuel electricity production to renewables while promoting the transition to electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Push for ambitious performance and emissions standards; suggest gradually increasing stringency of standards; consider advocating for the phasing out of fossil fuel–powered ICE vehicles; advocate simultaneously for public incentives to make adoption easier and affordable for retailers and drivers alike.
  • Help develop, plan, and design charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, ensuring adequate spacing between stations and equitable distribution of stations; advocate for regulations to require standard sockets in electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Help develop certification programs for manufacturers of electric scooters and motorcycles to ensure quality and safety before mass production.
  • Develop recovery and recycling programs for both electric and fossil fuel–powered ICE models; offer buyback programs to facilitate upgrades to electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for minimum standards for recyclability and to guarantee the inclusion of recycled materials in electric scooters and motorcycles, and gradually increase the stringency of those standards; help set clear guidelines for collection points for recycled materials and adhere to standards for acceptable origins of recycled materials. 
  • Collaborate with policymakers and the industry to develop battery standards for performance, interoperability, and battery-swapping stations.
  • Help set standards for carbon emissions, raw material use, water footprint, and environmental impact for batteries on the market; advocate for the gradual increase of standards to reduce impact; advocate for requirements for battery components to be recyclable and use recycled material when possible; help set legal requirements for batteries to be replaceable; advocate for the use of product passports for batteries, ensuring the passport includes operationally-relevant information such as diagnostics, individual identification numbers, and information on repair, reuse, and recycling (in addition to environmental impact information). 
  • Advocate for increased funding for agencies responsible for road safety and encourage strong enforcement of safety regulations; help plan for expanding safety measures, such as improving infrastructure and road conditions, enforcing speed management, implementing legal requirements for helmets, and introducing load limits to reduce risks; support public education initiatives and the creation of visible road signage; encourage the use of reflective gear and protective clothing for drivers and passengers; develop and enforce laws for alcohol impairment while driving; consider mandating speed governors.
  • Call on policymakers to require dedicated parking spots for electric scooters and motorcycles, ensuring equitable distribution; advocate for incentives for placing charging stations at these lots if possible.
  • Help create one-stop shops for information on electric scooters and motorcycles, including demonstrations and educational resources on cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance; include information helpdesks to support retailers and consumers. 
  • Join international efforts to promote environmental and human rights standards and ensure those standards are met with regard to electric scooter and motorcycle supply chains.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric scooters and motorcycle adoption.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Conduct research and development on promising battery technology, such as sodium-ion and solid-state batteries.
  • Help create modular designs for batteries to improve maintenance, recovery of materials, and battery swapping.
  • Create more durable batteries to withstand high heat; create safeguards against overcharging and electrolyte leaks; improve performance, range, and rate of discharge of batteries.
  • Improve recyclability and circularity of supply chains for electric scooter and motorcycle vehicles and batteries.
  • Design batteries to reduce the required amount of critical minerals.
  • Innovate low-cost methods to improve safety, labor standards, and supply chains in mining for critical minerals.
  • Develop methods of converting fossil fuel–powered scooter and motorcycle manufacturing and infrastructure to electric.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • If purchasing a new scooter or motorcycle, purchase an electric model; consider upgrading fossil fuel–powered ICE models to their electric counterparts.
  • Take advantage of any financial incentives offered, such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for purchases.
  • Share your experiences with electric scooters and motorcycles through social media and peer-to-peer networks, highlighting cost savings, benefits, incentive programs, and troubleshooting tips.
  • Help shift the narrative around electric scooters and motorcycles by demonstrating the vehicles’ capability and performance.
  • Advocate for financial incentives for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers, such as subsidies, tax breaks, grants, and low-interest loans; recommend providing targeted incentives and support for battery swapping stations to help develop the market for electric scooters and motorcycles; advocate for financial assistance to low- and middle-income communities to purchase electric scooters and motorcycles.
  • Propose increased funding for agencies responsible for road safety and encourage strong enforcement of safety regulations; help plan for expanding safety measures, such as improving infrastructure and road conditions, enforcing speed management, implementing legal requirements for helmets, and introducing load limits to reduce risks; support public education initiatives and the creation of visible road signage; encourage the use of reflective gear and protective clothing for drivers and passengers; develop and enforce laws for alcohol impairment while driving; consider mandating speed governors.
  • Call on policymakers to require dedicated parking spots for electric scooters and motorcycles, ensuring equitable distribution; advocate for incentives for placing charging and battery-swapping infrastructure at these lots if possible.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in decarbonizing the transport sector: High

A high level of consensus exists among major organizations working in the climate solutions arena that mobilizing electric scooters and motorcycles can offer a substantial reduction in GHG emissions. This segment of the transportation sector is already the most electrified in road transport globally, with roughly 79 million electric scooters and motorcycles on the road – or about 9% of the global fleet. IEA (2024) notes that full electrification of this segment is “within reach” with stronger policy support. Worldwide, road transport was responsible for more than 6 Gt CO₂ ‑eq emissions in 2024; more than 90% of those emissions came from cars and vans (60%) and trucks (33%), whereas only 7% of those emissions were generated by scooters and motorcycles (IEA, 2025a). 

Electric scooters and motorcycles have been found to reduce external environmental costs as well, suggesting they can help accelerate the shift toward more sustainable transport systems (Carranza et al., 2022). Electric scooters and motorcycles generally outperform fossil fuel–powered scooter and motorcycle models in terms of environmental indicators (Montoya-Torres et al., 2023), and can retain advantages even when charged using electricity generated primarily from coal (Cox & Mutel, 2018).

The results presented in our analysis summarize findings from 14 original studies and seven reports reflecting current evidence from 23 countries. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
Coming Soon

Mobilize Electric Bicycles

Sector
Transportation
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Electrify Vehicles
Image
Parent riding electric bicycle with children seated in back carrier
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

We define the Mobilize Electric Bicycles solution as increased travel by bicycles that have an electric motor to supplement the effort of the rider, but require the rider to turn the pedals to activate the motor. Some sources refer to electric mopeds or motorcycles as electric bicycles, but those modes of transportation fall within Project Drawdown’s Mobilize Electric Scooters & Motorcycles solution and are not covered here. Also known as pedelecs or e-bikes, electric bicycles can be deployed as privately owned electric bicycles or as shared electric bicycles, which are available as part of bicycle sharing networks typically operated at the city level for short-term rental on a per-trip basis.

Income & work,Health
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Mobilize Electric Bicycles is a Highly Recommended climate solution. Electric bikes reduce the need for car trips and so cut GHG emissions.
Overview

Electric bicycles use electric power to supplement the muscular effort of the rider. Like conventional bicycles and other forms of nonmotorized transportation, electric bicycles get some of their motive power from human muscle power, which in turn comes from food calories – a form of closed-loop biomass power with no emissions (see Improve Nonmotorized Transportation). Unlike conventional bicycles, however, electric bicycles get added power from electricity, which comes from the grid and is stored in a battery.

This partial reliance on grid electricity, as well as the production of the battery and electric motors, increases the carbon emissions and cost of an electric bicycle compared to those of a conventional bicycle. Nevertheless, electric bicycle emissions remain far lower than the emissions of cars (including electric cars), meaning that every passenger-kilometer (pkm) moved from a car to an electric bicycle achieves significant GHG emissions savings. 

Since the additional electric power enables electric bicycle riders to cover longer distances at greater speeds, climb larger hills, and carry heavier loads – and do it all with substantially less physical effort – electric bicycles can substitute for more car trips than conventional bicycles can. This can amplify electric bicycles’ potential carbon savings relative to conventional bicycles, even if the savings per pkm traveled are lower. Electric bicycles also tend to get used at high rates, and a large proportion of pkm by electric bicycle are pkm that would otherwise have been by car (Bigazzi & Wong, 2020; Bourne et al., 2020; Cairns et al., 2017; Fukushige et al., 2021).

Shared electric bicycles can enhance this effect. The need for docking stations and rebalancing services (i.e., the use of larger vehicles to reposition bicycles to avoid one-way trips that create shortages in some places and surpluses in others) increases the carbon emissions of electric bicycles per pkm compared with private electric bicycles. By renting out electric bicycles one trip at a time, however, bicycle-share systems can make electric bicycles affordable to a larger percentage of the public, further increasing the number of pkm that can be shifted to electric bicycles.

The adoption of electric bicycles reduces emissions of CO₂ and methane from cars by displacing pkm traveled via car. When electric bicycles replace a trip by a gasoline- or diesel-powered car, they also eliminate reliance on fossil fuels to complete that trip. Even if the electricity used to power electric bicycles comes from fossil fuels, those emissions are relatively small and could eventually be replaced with low-emission electricity through the deployment of renewables or similar technologies.

References

Astegiano, P., Fermi, F., & Martino, A. (2019). Investigating the impact of e-bikes on modal share and greenhouse emissions: A system dynamic approach. Transportation Research Procedia, 37, 163-170. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2018.12.179

Berjisian, E., & Bigazzi, A. (2019). Summarizing the impacts of electric bicycle adoption on vehicle travel, emissions, and physical activity. UBC REACT LAb. Link to source: https://civil-reactlab.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2019/07/BerjisianBigazzi_ImpactsofE-bikes_Report_July2019.pdf

Bigazzi, A., & Wong, K. (2020). Electric bicycle mode substitution for driving, public transit, conventional cycling, and walking. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 85, 102412. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102412

Bourne, J. E., Cooper, A. R., Kelly, P., Kinnear, F. J., England, C., Leary, S., & Page, A. (2020). The impact of e-cycling on travel behaviour: A scoping review. Journal of Transport & Health, 19, 100910. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2020.100910

Bucher, D., Buffat, R., Froemelt, A., & Raubal, M. (2019). Energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials resulting from different commuter electric bicycle adoption scenarios in Switzerland. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 114, 109298. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109298 

Cairns, S., Behrendt, F., Raffo, D., Beaumont, C., & Kiefer, C. (2017). Electrically-assisted bikes: Potential impacts on travel behaviour. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 103, 327-342. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.03.007

Carracedo, D., & Mostofi, H. (2022). Electric cargo bikes in urban areas: A new mobility option for private transportation. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 16, 100705. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2022.100705

Dekker, P. (2013). Electrification of road transport-An analysis of the economic performance of electric two-wheelers. Utrecht University. Link to source: https://studenttheses.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/20.500.12932/13022/Thesis%20P.W.K.%20Dekker%2012%20May%202013.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

eBicycles. (2025a). How much does an electric bike cost? E-bike price breakdown [2025]. Link to source: https://www.ebicycles.com/how-much-does-an-electric-bike-cost/ 

eBicycles. (2025b). Useful facts & stats of e-bikes [for 2025] + infographic. Link to source: https://www.ebicycles.com/ebike-facts-statistics/ 

Ebike Canada. (2025). The best electric bikes & scooters in canada for 2025. Ebike Canada. Link to source: https://ebikecanada.com/best-electric-bike-and-scooter/ 

Fishman, E., & Cherry, C. (2016). E-bikes in the Mainstream: Reviewing a Decade of Research. Transport Reviews, 36(1), 72-91. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2015.1069907

Fukushige, T., Fitch, D. T., & Handy, S. (2021). Factors influencing dock-less E-bike-share mode substitution: Evidence from Sacramento, California. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 99, 102990. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102990

Galatoulas, N.-F., Genikomsakis, K. N., & Ioakimidis, C. S. (2020). Spatio-Temporal Trends of E-Bike Sharing System Deployment: A Review in Europe, North America and Asia. Sustainability, 12(11), Article 11. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114611

Gössling, S., Choi, A., Dekker, K., & Metzler, D. (2019). The social cost of automobility, cycling and walking in the European Union. Ecological Economics, 158, 65–74. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.016 

Guidon, S., Becker, H., Dediu, H., & Axhausen, K. W. (2018). Electric bicycle-sharing: A new competitor in the urban transportation market?: An empirical analysis of transaction data. Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- Und Raumplanung, 1364. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.016 

Hanna, J. (2023). Bike Share Toronto 2023 business review. Link to source: https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2023/pa/bgrd/backgroundfile-240804.pdf 

Helton, J. (2025). Ride with power: The top electric bikes for 2025, as chosen by experts. Road & Track. Link to source: https://www.roadandtrack.com/gear/lifestyle/g46464030/best-electric-bikes/ 

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Jones, B. (2019). Electric Bike Maintenance Cost. BicycleVolt. Link to source: https://bicyclevolt.com/electric-bike-maintenance-cost/ 

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Langford, B. C., Cherry, C. R., Bassett, D. R., Fitzhugh, E. C., & Dhakal, N. (2017). Comparing physical activity of pedal-assist electric bikes with walking and conventional bicycles. Journal of Transport & Health, 6, 463–473. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2017.06.002

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Mellino, S., Petrillo, A., Cigolotti, V., Autorino, C., Jannelli, E., & Ulgiati, S. (2017). A Life Cycle Assessment of lithium battery and hydrogen-FC powered electric bicycles: Searching for cleaner solutions to urban mobility. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 42(3), 1830–1840. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2016.10.146 

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Pekow, C. (2024, April 1). E-bikes could cut smog, energy use and congestion globally—But will they? Mongabay Environmental News. Link to source: https://news.mongabay.com/2024/04/e-bikes-could-cut-smog-energy-use-and-congestion-globally-but-will-they/

Philips, I., Anable, J., & Chatterton, T. (2022). E-bikes and their capability to reduce car CO2 emissions. Transport Policy, 116, 11-23. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.019

Platt, S. M., Haddad, I. E., Pieber, S. M., Huang, R.-J., Zardini, A. A., Clairotte, M., Suarez-Bertoa, R., Barmet, P., Pfaffenberger, L., Wolf, R., Slowik, J. G., Fuller, S. J., Kalberer, M., Chirico, R., Dommen, J., Astorga, C., Zimmermann, R., Marchand, N., Hellebust, S., … Prévôt, A. S. H. (2014). Two-stroke scooters are a dominant source of air pollution in many cities. Nature Communications, 5(1), 3749. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4749

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Shi, Z., Wang, J., Liu, K., Liu, Y., & He, M. (2024). Exploring the usage efficiency of electric bike-sharing from a spatial–temporal perspective. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 129, 104139. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2024.104139 

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Credits

Lead Fellows

  • Cameron Roberts, Ph.D.

  • Heather Jones, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Ted Otte

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Per 1,000 private electric bicycles, approximately 110.5 t CO₂‑eq/yr is offset by displacing trips taken by higher-emission transportation modes such as cars and public transit (Table 1a). 

Per 1,000 shared electric bicycles, approximately 14.44 t CO₂‑eq/yr is offset (Table 1b). This lower value is due to the additional emissions produced in the operation of a shared electric-bicycle system (e.g., due to the need to reposition bicycles after they accumulate in some locations while becoming depleted in others). Additionally, other modes of transportation are shifted to shared electric bicycles at different rates than privately owned electric bicycles – notably shifted less from car travel. These factors limit the total GHG emissions reduced per shared electric bicycle.

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /1,000 electric bicycles/yr, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 55.87
Mean 136.1
Median (50th percentile) 110.5
75th percentile 220.5

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /1,000 electric bicycles/yr, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 1.415
Mean 14.62
Median (50th percentile) 14.44
75th percentile 34.31
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Cost

Electric bicycles vary significantly in cost, but generally are more expensive than traditional bicycles due to the cost of batteries, motors, and other electronic components, as well as the need for more durable mechanical components. 

Private electric bicycles cost about US$2,700, plus another few hundred dollars per year in maintenance costs. All told, assuming a 10-year lifespan, electric bicycles cost about US$600/yr to operate . The average privately owned electric bicycle is ridden 2,400 km/yr; since 28.67% of that distance is shifted from car trips, electric bicycles displace approximately 688 pkm/yr traveled by car. Car travel costs US$0.53/pkm while electric bicycle travel costs US$0.25/pkm, meaning every pkm traveled via electric bicycle saves US$0.28. Multiplied over 688 pkm/yr, this translates to every electric bicycle saving its owner approximately US$193/yr in avoided car trips (Bucher et al., 2019; Carracedo & Mostofi, 2022; eBicycles, 2025a; Ebike Canada, 2025; Gössling et al., 2019; Helton, 2025; Huang et al., 2022; International Transport Forum, 2020; Jones, 2019; Luxe Digital, 2025; Mellino et al., 2017; N, 2023; So, 2024; Weiss et al., 2015).

Most of the costs of riding an electric bicycle are up-front costs. As a result, electric bicycle owners who shift more trips from a car onto their electric bicycle will significantly increase their savings. Privately owned electric bicycles save US$1,748 for every t CO₂‑eq they avoid (Table 2a).

Shared electric bicycles are more expensive to the system provider than privately owned electric bicycles due to greater needs for infrastructure, maintenance, operating expenses, and services, such as rebalancing. Shared electric bicycles cost US$2.42/pkm and displace an average of 156 pkm/yr from car trips per bicycle. The same distance traveled by car costs US$83, meaning that shared electric bicycles cost an additional US$295/yr compared to traveling the same distance by car (Gössling et al., 2019; Guidon et al., 2018; Hanna, 2023; Matasyan, 2015; Summit Bike Share, 2023). Shared electric bicycles cost US$22,860/t CO₂‑eq avoided due to their higher costs, higher emissions, and the lower chance that riders on shared electric bicycles would otherwise have been traveling by car (Table 2b).

Table 2. Cost per climate impact.

Unit: US$ (2023) per t CO₂‑eq , 100-year basis

Median (50th percentile) –1,748

Unit: US$ (2023) per t CO₂‑eq , 100-year basis

Median (50th percentile) 22,860

*Cost to the provider of the system, not the user

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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Learning rates for electric bicycles are often negative (i.e., prices increase with cumulative production). This is largely because electric bicycle batteries have grown larger over time, causing the bicycles to become more expensive (Dekker, 2013; Weiss et al., 2015). The learning rate per electric bicycle ranges from 15% to –43% (Table 3a). This range has improved the general value proposition of electric bicycles, however, since larger batteries enable electric bicycles to go further and faster than before.

To compensate for this, it is useful to calculate the learning rate per kWh battery capacity rather than per bicycle. On this measure, Dekker (2013) calculates a learning rate of 7.9% cost reduction per kWh of electric bicycle battery capacity for every doubling of cumulative production (Table 3b).

These estimates are based on analyses published in 2013 and 2015, respectively, and therefore do not take into account more recent advances in electric bicycle production. More up-to-date research on electric bicycle learning rates is needed to inform future assessments on this topic.

Table 3. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of cumulative electric bicycle production.*

Unit: %

25th percentile –43.50
Mean –26.86
Median (50th percentile) –36.00
75th percentile 15

* These data are from 2013 and 2015, due to a lack of available research on this topic.

Unit: %

Median (50th percentile) 7.9

* These data are from 2013 and 2015, due to a lack of available research on this topic.

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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Mobilize Electric Bicycles is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

Electric bicycles do not only compete with cars for the total passenger transport demand; a given electric bicycle trip might also substitute for public transit. This can sometimes still be beneficial since, as electric bicycles often have lower per-kilometer emissions than public transit vehicles (International Transport Forum, 2020). However, an electric bicycle trip might also substitute for a conventional bicycle trip or for a pedestrian journey, in which case electric bicycle usage would actually increase emissions. Finally, some electric bicycle trips are new journeys, meaning that they would not occur at all if the traveler did not have an electric bicycle, which also increases emissions (Astegiano et al., 2019; Berjisian & Bigazzi, 2019; Bourne et al., 2020; Cairns et al., 2017; Dekker, 2013).

Generally speaking however, electric bicycles still shift enough passenger car trips to make up for this effect, although the scale can be more marginal with shared electric bicycle systems. However, electric bicycles are more likely to substitute more for whichever forms of transportation their users were already using previously (Wamburu et al., 2021). This means that wider adoption of electric bicycles in car-dependent North American suburbs, for example, will have a much clearer and more beneficial climate impact than in a dense, pedestrianized European city center, or in a low-income country where most people do not have access to a car (although in these contexts electric bicycles could still produce major social and economic benefits).

Our estimates of the total adoption ceiling potential of electric bicycles (described in the Adoption section) are based on the ratio of adoption between electric bicycles and cars, on the grounds that each electric bicycle avoids some amount of car travel. However, the relationship is not necessarily quite so simple. Car trips with passengers might require more than one electric bicycle trip to replace them (unless the passengers are children, who can be carried as passengers on electric bicycles). On the other side of the equation, some households own more than one car per person. Having more than one electric bicycle per car would therefore not meaningfully reduce car trips. Lastly, our approach of tracking electric bicycle adoption in relation to car ownership neglects people whose use of an electric bicycle enables them to avoid owning a car at all. Estimates of adoption should be taken as rough guesses, rather than authoritative forecasts.

Current Adoption

Private electric bicycles have experienced significant growth since 2015. We estimate there are approximately 278 million private electric bicycles in use in the world today (Table 4a). 

Data on this subject typically include throttle-assisted electric bicycles, e-scooter/trotinettes, and sometimes mopeds and motorcycles; these are not included in this solution. Data from China, the highest adopter of electric bicycles, does not usually distinguish between types of electric two-wheelers. For this reason, we used more conservative estimates, preferring to understate adoption than overstate it. We used several global estimates, data on electric bicycle sales in Canada, the United States, and Europe, and stock estimates from the Asia-Pacific region (eBicycles, 2025b; Mordor Intelligence, 2022; Precedence Research, 2024; Stewart & Ramachandran, 2022; Strategic Market Research, 2024; The Freedonia Group, 2024). To convert from European and American sales data to stocks data, we assumed that all electric bicycles sold over the past 10 years (the lifespan of an electric bicycle) are still in use today. We then calculated the number of electric bicycles per 1,000 people in each of the three regions, used those three values to calculate a population-weighted global mean adoption rate, and multiplied the result by the number of residents of high- and upper-middle income countries worldwide (where we assume most electric bicycle adoption takes place). This calculation provided a global estimate.

Shared electric bicycle schemes now exist in many cities around the world, with at least 2 million shared electric bicycles currently in use as part of electric bicycle sharing systems (Table 4b; eBicycles, 2025b; Innovation Origins, 2023; PBSC Urban Solutions, 2022; Strategic Market Research, 2024). This is a conservative estimate because research published in a reputable academic journal claimed that China has 8.7 million shared electric bicycles in 2022 (Shi et al., 2024). 

Table 4. Current (2024) adoption level.

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles

Population-weighted mean 277600

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles

Population-weighted mean 2000
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Adoption Trend

Private electric bicycles are being adopted at a rate of about 37 million new bicycles every year (eBicycles, 2025b; Mordor Intelligence, 2022; Precedence Research, 2024; Stewart & Ramachandran, 2022; Strategic Market Research, 2024; The Freedonia Group, 2024; see Table 5a). Electric bicycles are also attracting interest from consumers who do not normally ride bicycles, including people in rural areas (Philips et al., 2022) and members of vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. 

Shared electric bicycles are being added to cities at a rate of approximately 413,000/yr (eBicycles, 2025b; Innovation Origins, 2023; PBSC Urban Solutions, 2022; Strategic Market Research, 2024; see Table 5b). Cities and private companies are adding shared electric bicycle systems at a rate of around 30/yr (Galatoulas et al., 2020). Based on these data, we calculate a 37.97% compounding annual growth rate in electric bicycle sharing system installations around the world. 

Table 5. 2023–2024 adoption trend.

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles/yr

25th percentile 34000
Population-weighted mean 37330
Median (50th percentile) 38000
75th percentile 40000

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles/yr

Median (50th percentile) 412.5
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Adoption Ceiling

Because we model electric bicycles as a solution primarily due to their ability to shift travel from fossil fuel–powered cars, we estimate adoption by reference to the ratio of electric bicycles to cars. This does not mean that people without access to a car will not use electric bicycles; it means that they are not shifting their pkm from fossil fuel–powered cars and therefore are not included in the calculations of shifting from car to electric bicycle. 

Private electric bicycles’ adoption ceiling (Table 6a) would be approximately 2 billion around the world: one for every car (World Health Organization, 2021). This would mean that every motorist has an electric bicycle as a ready alternative to a car.

Shared electric bicycles’ adoption ceiling can be measured similarly, except that we assume these systems are only viable in cities. Therefore, we set the maximum adoption ceiling of shared electric bicycles to be 1.3 billion (Table 6b) – the number of cars in cities around the world. we estimated by multiplying the global urban population (4.45 billion) by the global average car registrations per 1,000 people (286.2) (World Health Organization, 2021; World Bank, 2024).

This upper-bound scenario faces many of the same caveats as the upper-bound scenario for the Improve Nonmotorized Transportation solution. It would require a revolution in support for electric bicycles: new infrastructure, new traffic laws, a substantial increase in electric battery production capacity, and major changes to built environments, including increases in population and land-use density to make more journeys feasible by electric bicycle. However, this scenario would require less dramatic change than a similar upper-bound scenario for the Improve Nonmotorized Transportation solution because electric bicycles go faster, have higher carrying capacities, can travel longer distances, and are easier to use than nonmotorized travel modes (Weiss et al., 2015).

A limitation of this analysis is that one electric bicycle per car does not necessarily correspond to one electric bicycle per person traveling in a car. For example, it is possible that replacing one car trip with electric bicycles would result in multiple electric bicycle trips in order to carry multiple passengers. Our estimates should therefore be seen as approximate. 

It is also possible for total electric bicycle adoption and usage to exceed car use (i.e., electric bicycles also replace other modes of transportation or generate new trips). We do not consider this scenario in our adoption ceiling because additional adoption above car adoption would not produce a major climate benefit.

Table 6. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles

Adoption ceiling 2022000

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles

Adoption ceiling 1273000
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Achievable Adoption

Private electric bicycles are currently in use across the Asia-Pacific region at a rate of approximately 0.07 electric bicycles for every car. A low achievable adoption rate might see every country in the world achieve this same ratio, which would lead to a global electric bicycle fleet of 421 million (Table 7a). For a higher rate of adoption, we posit one electric bicycle in use for every two cars. This would see just more than 1 billion electric bicycles in use worldwide.

Using the median and 75th percentile of the ratio of shared electric bicycles to cars (for which we have data) as the rate of adoption seen in every city in the world leads to 22 to 69 million shared electric bicycles in cities worldwide (Table 7b).

Note: We based these estimates on electric bicycles per car rather than electric bicycles per person because the climate impact of electric bicycle adoption in a given place depends on the availability of cars to replace. 

Table 7. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles

Current adoption 277600
Achievable – low 421300
Achievable – high 1011000
Adoption ceiling 2022000

Unit: 1,000 electric bicycles

Current adoption 2000
Achievable – low 22010
Achievable – high 69260
Adoption ceiling 1273000
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If every motorist had an electric bicycle they used to replace at least some car trips, it would mitigate 224 Mt CO₂‑eq/yr – equal to the total global carbon emissions produced by cars, minus the emissions that would be produced due to electric bicycles traveling the same distance. If there were one electric bicycle for every two cars, it would avoid 117 Mt CO₂‑eq/yr. And if global electric bicycle adoption reached the rate currently seen in the Asia-Pacific region (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand), it would avoid 47 Mt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 8a).

Our Achievable – Low scenario of 22 million shared electric bicycles in cities worldwide would save 284 kt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 8b). Our Achievable – High scenario of 69.3 million shared electric bicycles worldwide would save 895 kt CO₂‑eq/yr. The maximum possible shared electric bicycle deployment would save approximately 16.6 Mt CO₂‑eq/yr.

Table 8. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂-eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.0307
Achievable – low 0.0466
Achievable – high 0.1117
Adoption ceiling 0.2235

Unit: Gt CO₂-eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.00002584
Achievable – low 0.0002844
Achievable – high 0.0008949
Adoption ceiling 0.01645
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

In addition to being cheaper than car travel, electric bicycles allow people to travel farther and faster than they could on foot, on a conventional bicycle, or (often) on public transit. Time savings from quick, longer trips, reduced traffic congestion, and money savings provide an economic benefit (Bourne, 2020). 

Health

Electric bicycles provide quality-of-life benefits for some people who use them (Bourne, 2020; Carracedo & Mostofi, 2022; Teixeira et al., 2022; Thomas, 2022). Electric assistance reduces the physical fitness and other health benefits of cycling. However, electric bicycles still require pedaling, and studies show that this level of effort required can still have substantial health benefits (Berjisian & Bigazzii, 2019; Langford et al., 2017). Electric bicycles can also enable people to cycle who might not otherwise be able to (Bourne et al., 2020). Additionally, electric bicycles can reduce total car traffic, which could reduce the risk of injury and death from car crashes, which kill 1.2 million people annually (WHO, 2023). Similarly, electric bicycles can reduce health impacts of traffic noise (de Nazelle et al., 2011).

Air Quality

The fossil fuel–powered vehicles most similar to electric bicycles (motorcycles, scooters, etc.) are extremely polluting (Platt et al., 2014). Substituting electric bicycles for these can substantially reduce air pollution.

Risks

Electric bicycles pose some safety concerns, centering on an ongoing debate over whether electric cyclists ride more recklessly than other cyclists (Fishman & Cherry, 2016; Langford et al., 2015). While electric bicycles have a lower injury rate than conventional bicycles, when injuries do happen during electric bicycle travel the health consequences tend to be more severe due to the higher speed (Berjisian & Bigazzi, 2019). There may also be risks related to the bicycles’ lithium-ion batteries catching fire. Strong regulations can minimize this risk (Pekow, 2024). Improved infrastructure, such as separated bike lanes and paths, can also reduce the safety risks associated with electric bicycles (Roberts, 2020).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Electric bicycles can complement other forms of low-carbon mobility, especially those that reduce dependence on private cars. People who rely on public transit, conventional travel, pedestrian travel, carpools, or other sustainable modes of transportation for some kinds of trips can use electric bicycles to fill in some of the gaps in their personal transportation arrangements (Roberts, 2023). For public transit in particular, electric bicycles can play an important last-mile role, enabling transit riders to more easily access stops. This is important because research suggests that the key to a low-carbon mobility system is to enable people to live high-quality lives without owning cars (Van Acker & Witlox, 2010).

Competing

Electric bicycles compete with electric and hybrid cars and electric scooters and motorcycles for adoption.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

1,000 electric bicycles

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
055.87110.5median
units
Current 277,600 0421,3001.01×10⁶
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.031 0.0470.112
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-1,748
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Solution Basics

1,000 electric bicycles

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
01.41514.44median
units
Current 2,000 022,01069,260
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 2.583×10⁻⁵ 2.843×10⁻⁴8.949×10⁻⁴
US$ per t CO₂-eq
22,860
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

If an electric bicycle replaces primarily car trips, it provides an unambiguous climate benefit. If it replaces public transit, the size of the benefit will depend on the specifics of the public transit system it replaces. If it replaces pedestrian trips or conventional cycling trips, or generates new trips, the net climate benefit is negative. Travel survey data suggest that electric bicycles replace enough car journeys to more than offset any journeys by the more sustainable modes of transportation they replace (Bigazzi & Wong, 2020; Bourne et al., 2020; Cairns et al., 2017; Fukushige et al., 2021). However, electric bicycles in cities that already have very low-carbon mobility systems, or in lower-income countries where car ownership is rare, might have a net negative climate impact. 

Electric bicycles also require batteries, the production and disposal of which generates pollution (Yang et al., 2021). However, electric bicycles require much less battery capacity than many other electrification technologies, such as electric vehicles (Weiss et al., 2015).

Mt CO2–eq/yr
0–4
4–8
8–12
12–16
16–20
> 20
No data

Annual road transportation emissions, 2024

Cars are the largest source of road transportation vehicle emissions, which are shown here for urban areas.

Kott, T., Foster, K., Villafane-Delgado, M., Loschen, W., Sicurello, P., Ghebreselassie, M., Reilly, E., and Hughes, M. (2024). Transportation sector - Global road emissions [Data set]. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL), Climate TRACE Emissions Inventory. Retrieved March 12, 2025 from Link to source: https://climatetrace.org

Mt CO2–eq/yr
0–4
4–8
8–12
12–16
16–20
> 20
No data

Annual road transportation emissions, 2024

Cars are the largest source of road transportation vehicle emissions, which are shown here for urban areas.

Kott, T., Foster, K., Villafane-Delgado, M., Loschen, W., Sicurello, P., Ghebreselassie, M., Reilly, E., and Hughes, M. (2024). Transportation sector - Global road emissions [Data set]. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL), Climate TRACE Emissions Inventory. Retrieved March 12, 2025 from Link to source: https://climatetrace.org

Maps Introduction

Electric bicycle effectiveness in mitigating climate change varies by region, depending on the carbon intensity of the charging electricity, the extent to which they replace higher-emission travel (such as cars, motorcycles, or taxis), and the need and type of vehicle used for rebalancing shared electric bicycles (International Transport Forum, 2020). They are most effective in areas with cleaner electricity grids and where they can substitute for cars. 

Since electric bicycles are more effective when replacing cars, this means that wider adoption of electric bicycles in car-dependent regions, such as North American suburbs, will have a much more significant climate impact than in a dense, pedestrianized European city center or in a low-income country where most people do not have access to a car (although in these contexts electric bicycles could still produce significant social and economic benefits) (Wamburu et al., 2021).

Socioeconomic and infrastructural factors play a major role in adoption. These include upfront costs of private electric bicycles, availability and affordability of shared electric bicycles, supportive cycling infrastructure, and policies such as subsidies or rebates. In many countries, electric bicycles increase the accessibility of nonmotorized transport for older adults, people with disabilities, and those commuting longer distances or in hilly areas by reducing physical effort (Bourne et al., 2020).

Future geographic targets for scaling adoption with strong climate and equity outcomes include South and Southeast Asian cities (e.g., Dhaka, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City) with high trip density, short trip lengths, and growing pollution concerns, all of which make them ideal for adoption. Sub-Saharan African cities (e.g., Kampala, Accra) where electric bicycles could complement or replace informal motorcycle taxis, reducing emissions and improving affordability and safety, are also important targets. North America has potential as both private and shared programs are beginning to expand in urban areas, helped by municipal investment and rising consumer interest.

Action Word
Mobilize
Solution Title
Electric Bicycles
Interactive Intro

Note: Even at the highest effectiveness and adoption levels, the climate impact of shared e-bikes is negligible relative to current global emissions.

Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Establish policies that reduce the associated time, distance, risk, and risk perception for users and potential users.
  • Provide financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for electric bicycle production and purchases.
  • Use targeted financial incentives to assist low-income communities in purchasing electric bicycles and to incentivize manufacturers to produce more affordable options.
  • Develop local bicycle and charging infrastructure, such as building physically separated bicycle lanes.
  • Have locking posts installed in public spaces that can accommodate electric bicycles.
  • Increase maintenance of bicycle infrastructure, such as path clearing.
  • Create international standards for the manufacturing and classification of electric bicycles.
  • Transition fossil fuel electricity production to renewables while promoting the transition to electric bicycles.
  • Offer one-stop shops for information on electric and non-motorized bicycles, including demonstrations and educational resources on cost savings, environmental impact, and maintenance.
  • Set regulations for sustainable use of electric bicycle batteries and improve recycling infrastructure.
  • Join international efforts to promote and ensure supply chain environmental and human rights standards – particularly, for the production of batteries.
  • Create, support, or join partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for electric and non-motorized bicycle adoption.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Share your experiences with electric bicycles, providing tips and reasons for choosing this mode of transportation..
  • Participate in local bike groups, public events, and volunteer opportunities.
  • Advocate tor local officials for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations where improvements can be made.
  • Encourage local businesses to create employee incentives.
  • Provide information and resources to help individuals, households, and business owners take advantage of state and local tax benefits or rebates for electric bicycle purchases.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Advocate for better cycling infrastructure and sharing systems with city officials.
  • Educate customers about local bicycle infrastructure and encourage them to engage public officials.
  • Offer employees who agree to forgo a free parking space the annualized cash value or cost of that parking space as a salary increase.
  • Provide battery recycling services.
  • Offer free classes for electric bicycle maintenance and repair; educate employees about what they should know before purchasing an electric bicycle.
  •  
  • Install locking posts, parking, and security for electric bicycles.
  • Provide adequate onsite storage and charging, create educational materials on best practices for commuting, and offer pre-tax commuter benefits to encourage employee ridership.
  • Encourage electric bicycle use in company fleets by replacing or supplementing vehicles for local deliveries or transiting between office locations.
  • Incorporate electric bicycle programs into company sustainability and emission reduction initiatives;communicate how those programs support broader company goals. 

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Inform the public about the health and environmental benefits of electric bicycles.
  • Educate the public on government incentives for electric bicycles and how to take advantage of them.
  • Provide impartial information on local electric bicycle infrastructure, best practices for maintenance, and factors to consider when renting or buying electric bicycles.
  • Advocate to policymakers for improved infrastructure and incentives.
  • Administer public initiatives such as ride-share or buy-back programs.

Further information:

Investors
  • Invest in electric bicycle companies and start-ups, including battery and component suppliers.
  • Explore investment opportunities that address supply chain issues such as battery suppliers and maintenance providers.
  • Invest in companies conducting R&D to improve electric bicycle performance, decrease the need for materials, and reduce maintenance costs.
  • Invest in public or private electric bicycle sharing systems.
  • Finance electric bicycle purchases via low-interest loans.
  • Invest in charging infrastructure for electric bicycles.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Award grants to local organizations advocating for improved bicycle infrastructure and services.
  • Support access through the distribution or discounting of electric bicycles and help educate community members about relevant incentives.
  • Strengthen local infrastructure and build local capacity for infrastructure design and construction.
  • Ensure that donated bicycles are appropriate for the environment and that recipients have access to maintenance and supplies.
  • Sponsor community engagement programs such as group bike rides or free maintenance classes.
  • Assist with local policy design.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Lead by example and use an electric bicycle as a regular means of transport.
  • Focus public messages on key decision factors for commuters, such as associated health and fitness benefits, climate and environmental benefits, weather forecasts, and traffic information.
  • Showcase principles of safe urban design and highlight dangerous areas.
  • Share detailed information on local bike routes, general electric bicycle maintenance tips, items to consider when purchasing a bike, and related educational information.
  • Collaborate with schools to teach bicycle instruction, including safe riding habits and maintenance tips.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Examine and improve elements of battery design and maintenance.
  • Improve electric bicycle infrastructure design.
  • Improve circularity, repairability, and ease of disassembly for electric bicycles.
  • Increase the physical carrying capacities for users of electric bicycles to facilitate shopping and transporting children, pets, and materials.
  • Improve other variables that increase the convenience, safety, and comfort levels of nonmotorized transportation.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Share your experiences with electric bicycles; provide tips and reasons for choosing this mode of transportation.
  • Participate in local bike groups, public events, and volunteer opportunities.
  • Advocate to employers and local businesses to provide incentives for electric bicycle usage and help start local initiatives.
  • Advocate to local officials for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations where improvements can be made.
  • Encourage local businesses to create employee incentives.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing emissions: High

When people purchase electric bicycles, they tend to use them often, with many of the trips they take on electric bicycles replacing trips that would otherwise have been taken via private car (Bigazzi & Wong, 2020; Bourne et al., 2020; Cairns et al., 2017; Fukushige et al., 2021). The evidence is similarly conclusive regarding the ability of shared electric bicycles to replace a large number of car trips. However, evidence regarding the carbon benefits of shared electric bicycles is more mixed due to the additional emissions required to run a shared electric-bicycle system.

Berjiisian and Bigazzi (2019) reviewed much of the literature on electric bicycles. and found that electric bicycle trips are shifted from car trips (44%) and transit trips (12%) providing significant emissions benefits. Other net benefits include less travel by cars, lower GHG emissions and more physical activity. “E-bike adoption is expected to provide net benefits in the forms of reduced motor vehicle travel, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased physical activity. A little more than half of e-bike trips are expected to shift travel from motor vehicles (44% car trips and 12% transit trips), which is sufficient to provide significant emissions benefits.”

Weiss et al. (2015) surveyed evidence of the economic, social, and environmental impacts of electric bicycles. They found that electric bicycles are more efficient and less polluting than cars. They reduce exposure to pollution as their environmental impacts come mainly from being produced and the electricity that they use, both of which are usually outside of urban areas.

Philips et al. (2022) investigated the potential for electric bicycles to replace car trips in the UK. Their geospatial model provided a good indication of what might be possible in other places and showed that electric bicycles have considerable potential in rural areas as well as urban ones. 

Li et al. (2023) reported that based on the mix of mode share replaced, shared electric bicycle trips decreased carbon emissions by 108–120 g/km carbon emissions than fossil fuel-powered cars per kilometer.”

This research is biased toward high-income countries. While there is substantial research on electric bicycles in China, that country often considers e-scooters (which do not have pedals) and throttle-assisted electric bikes as interchangeable with pedelecs electric bicycles. This made it hard to include Chinese research in our analysis. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research harmonization and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions in the future.

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
Coming Soon

Enhance Public Transit

Sector
Transportation
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Shift to Alternatives
Image
Train with city in the distance
Coming Soon
Off

Key Takeaways

  • Public transit generally produces fewer GHG emissions per passenger-kilometer than fossil fuel–powered cars, particularly when vehicles have high occupancy and use electricity.
  • Enhanced public transit can improve air quality, road safety, access to essential services, social inclusion, and economic opportunity.
  • Achieving the climate and other benefits of public transit requires substantial investment, reliable service, integrated urban planning, and enough riders to operate efficiently.
Summary

We define the Enhance Public Transit solution as increasing the use of any form of passenger transportation that uses publicly available vehicles (e.g., buses, streetcars, subways, commuter trains, and ferries) operating along fixed routes. It does not include increasing the use of publicly available forms of transportation without fixed routes, such as taxis, except when these transport options supplement a larger public transit system (for example, to help passengers with disabilities). It also does not include increasing the use of vehicles traveling over long distances, such as intercity trains, intercity buses, or aircraft. The cost per climate impact is the cost to the transit provider, not the passenger.

Income & work,Health,Equality
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Enhance Public Transit is a Highly Recommended climate solution. It not only reduces GHG emissions, but also can ease congestion, support compact development, and reduce the need for private vehicles.
Overview

Public transit vehicles are far more fuel-efficient – and thus less GHG-intensive – on a per-pkm basis than fossil fuel–powered cars. Diesel-powered buses emit fewer GHGs/pkm than cars because of their much higher occupancy. Electric buses further reduce GHG emissions (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018), as do forms of public transit that already run on electricity. Finally, a fleet of large, centralized public transit vehicles operating along fixed routes is usually easier to electrify than a fleet of fossil fuel–powered cars. 

Enhancing public transit to reduce emissions from transportation relies on two processes. First is increasing the modal share of existing public transit networks by encouraging people to travel by public transit rather than car. This requires building new public transit capacity while also overcoming political, sociocultural, economic, and technical hurdles. Second is improving the emissions performance of public transit networks through electrification and efficiency improvements. We accommodate the latter in this solution by assuming that all shifted trips to buses are electric buses.

These two processes are linked in complex ways. For example, construction of the new public transit networks needed to accommodate additional demand creates an opportunity to install low-carbon vehicles and infrastructures, and bringing additional passengers onto an underused public transit network generates close to zero additional GHG emissions. However, since these complexities are difficult to calculate, we assume that all increases in public transit ridership are supported by a linear increase in capacity.

Buses, trains, streetcars, subways, and other public-transit vehicles predate cars. During the 19th century, most cities developed complex and efficient networks of streetcars and rail that carried large numbers of passengers (Norton, 2011; Schrag, 2000). As a result, it’s clear that a good public transit network can provide for the basic mobility needs of most people, and can therefore substitute for most – if not all – transportation that fossil fuel–powered cars currently provide. Today, public transit networks worldwide already collectively deliver trillions of pkm, not only in big cities but also in small towns and rural areas. 

We identified several different types of public transit:

 

Buses

Low-capacity vehicles running on rubber tires on roads. Buses in the baseline are a mix of diesel and electric. For the purposes of this solution, we assume that all buses serving shifted trips are electric.

Trams or streetcars

Mid-capacity vehicles running on steel rails that for at least part of their routes run on roads with traffic, rather than in a dedicated rail corridor or tunnel.

Metros, subways, or light rail

High-capacity urban train systems using their own dedicated right-of-way that may or may not be underground.

Commuter rail

Large trains running mostly on the surface designed to bring large numbers of commuters from the suburbs into the core of a city that often overlap with regional or intercity rail.

Other modes

Ferries, cable cars, funiculars, and other forms of public transit that generally play a marginal role.

We assessed all modes together rather than individually because public transit relies on the interactions among different vehicles to maximize the reach, speed, and efficiency of the system. Public transit reduces emissions of CO₂,  methane, and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere by replacing fuel-powered cars, which emit these gases from their tailpipes. Some diesel-powered buses in regions that have low quality diesel emit black carbon. The black carbon global annual total emissions from transportation is negligible compared with carbon emissions and is therefore not quantified in our study. 

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Cameron Roberts, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D. 

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Heather Jones, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Ted Otte

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Our calculations suggest that an efficiently designed public transit system using the best available vehicle technologies (especially battery-electric buses) would save 58 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm (0.000058 t CO₂‑eq /pkm) on a 100-yr basis compared with fossil fuel–powered cars, in line with the estimates by other large transportation focused organizations (International Transport Forum, 2020; US Department of Transportation, 2010). This number is highly sensitive to public transit vehicle occupancy, which we estimated using the most recent available data (American Public Transit Association, 2021). Increasing the number of trips taken via public transit would likely increase occupancy, although ideally not to the point of passenger discomfort. This elevated ridership would significantly reduce public transit’s pkm emissions.

To arrive at this figure, we first estimated the emissions of fossil fuel–powered cars as 115 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm (0.000115 t/pkm, 100-yr basis). We then separately calculated the emissions of commuter rail, metros and subways, trams and light rail systems, and electric buses. We used data on the modal share of different vehicles within public transit systems around the world (although much of the available data are biased towards systems in the United States and Europe) to determine what each transit system’s emissions would be per million pkm given our per-million-pkm values for different transit vehicles (UITP, 2024). The median of these city-level values is 58 t CO₂‑eq /pkm (0.000058 t/pkm, 100-yr basis). Subtracting this value from the per-pkm emissions for cars gives us the public transit GHG savings figure cited above. Note that none of these values includes embodied emissions (such as emissions from producing cars, buses, trains, roads, etc.), or upstream emissions (such as those from oil refineries).

Pessimistic assumptions regarding the emissions and occupancy of public transit vehicles, and optimistic assumptions about emissions from cars, can suggest a much more marginal climate benefit from public transit (see the 25th percentile row in Table 1). In most cases, however, well-managed public transit is likely to produce a meaningful climate benefit. Such an outcome will depend on increasing the average occupancy of vehicles, which faces a challenge because transit has seen declining occupancies since the COVID-19 pandemic (Qi et al., 2023). For this reason, encouraging additional use of public transit networks without expanding these networks can have an outsized impact because it will allow the substitution of fossil fuel–powered car trips by trips on public transit vehicles for which emissions would not change meaningfully as a result of adding passengers.

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/million pkm, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 0.127
Mean 61.76
Median (50th percentile) 58.27
75th percentile 106.7

The extremely large range of values between the 25th and 75th percentile is the result of 1) the large diversity of public transit systems in the world and 2) multiplying multiple layers of uncertainty (e.g., varying estimates for occupancy, energy consumption per vehicle kilometer (vkm), percent of pkm reliant on buses vs. trains).

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Cost

Under present-day public transit costs and revenues, it costs the transit provider US$0.23 to transport a single passenger one kilometer. In comparison, travel by car costs the consumer US$0.42/pkm. On a per passenger basis, for the transit provider, public transit is almost 50% cheaper than car transportation, costing US$0.20/pkm less. Combined with the emissions reductions from using public transit, this means that the emissions reductions from shifting people out of cars onto public transit has a net negative cost, saving US$3,300/t CO₂‑eq mitigated (Table 2). 

This figure includes all relevant direct costs for travel by public transit and by car, including the costs of infrastructure, operations, vehicle purchase, and fuel. It does not include external costs, such as medical costs resulting from car crashes. Capital costs (i.e., the large fixed costs of building public transit infrastructure) are accounted for via the annualized capital costs listed in public transit agencies’ financial reports. 

A very large proportion of the total costs of providing public transit is labor (e.g., wages for bus drivers and station attendants). This cost is unlikely to come down as a result of technological innovations (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018).

For an individual passenger, however, the marginal costs of public transit (i.e., the fares they pay) can sometimes be higher than the marginal costs of driving. This is in large part due to many external costs of driving which are borne by society at large (Litman, 2024). However, increasing the public transit availability would likely increase occupancy, which would in turn drive costs down.

Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Median –3300

Transit provider cost, not passenger cost.

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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Public transit is a largely mature technology with limited opportunities for radical cost-saving innovation. While our research did not find any papers reporting a learning curve in public transit as a whole, battery-electric buses are in fact subject to many of the same experience effects of other battery-electric vehicles. Although there are no studies assessing declines in the cost of electric buses as a whole, there are studies assessing learning curves for their batteries, which is the most costly component. The cost of batteries used in battery-electric buses has declined 19.25% with each doubling of installed capacity (Table 3).

Table 3. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of the installed solution base.

Unit: %

25th percentile 18.63
Mean 19.25
Median (50th percentile) 19.25
75th percentile 19.88

This applies only to the cost of batteries in electric buses, not to public transportation as a whole.

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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Enhance Public Transit is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

Public transit competes for passengers not just with cars, but also with other transportation modes – some of which have lower emissions on average. If an increase in public transit’s modal share comes at the expense of nonmotorized transportation (i.e., pedestrian travel or cycling), or electric bicycles, this will result in a net increase in emissions. Similarly, public transit could generate additional trips that would not have occurred if the public transit network those trips were taken on did not exist. Under this scenario, a net increase in emissions would occur; however, these new trips might bring additional social benefits that would outweigh these new emissions.

Low occupancy could also diminish the climate benefit of enhancing public transit. While it is certainly possible to build effective and efficient public transit networks in suburban and rural areas, there is a risk that such networks could have high per-pkm GHG emissions if they have low average occupancy (Mees, 2010). It is therefore important to efficiently plan public transit networks, ensure vehicles are right-sized and have efficient powertrains, and promote high levels of ridership even in rural areas to maximize the climate benefit of these kinds of networks.

Upscaling public transit networks – and, crucially, convincing more motorists to use them – is an enduring challenge that faces cultural resistance in some countries, issues with cost, and sometimes a lack of political will. Successfully enhancing public transit will require that these hurdles are overcome.

Current Adoption

In cities around the world surveyed over the last 15 years, public transit has an average modal share of approximately 26.2% of trips. In comparison, fossil fuel–powered cars account for 51.4% of all trips, while nonmotorized transportation accounts for 22.4% (Prieto-Curiel & Ospina, 2024). The 26.2% of trips taken via public transit corresponds to approximately 7.2 trillion pkm traveled on public transit in cities every year (Table 4).

We calculated adoption from modal share data (i.e., the percentage of trips in a given city taken via various modes of transportation). We estimated total pkm traveled by assuming a global average daily distance traveled based on travel surveys from the United States as well as several European countries (Christensen & Vázquez, 2013; Department for Transport, 2024; Ecke, 2023; Federal Highway Administration, 2022; Statistics Netherlands, 2024). Most of these data did not account for population, and therefore gave too much weight to small cities and skewed the results. Therefore, we used Prieto-Curiel and Ospina’s (2024) global population-weighted mean modal share of the ITF’s (2021) urban passenger market as our global adoption value.

We assumed that Prieto-Curiel and Ospina’s data refer only to urban modal share. Public transit can be useful in rural areas (Börjesson et al., 2020), but we did not attempt to estimate rural public transit adoption in this assessment.

Table 4. Current (2024) adoption level.

Unit: million pkm/yr 

Population-weighted mean 6,784,000
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Adoption Trend

Based on data from Prieto-Curiel and Ospina (2024) and the UITP (2024) for 1,097 cities worldwide, the rate of adoption of public transit has not changed since 2010, with the median annual growth rate equal to 0 (Table 5). This was calculated using all of the cities in Prieto-Curiel and Ospina’s (2024) database for which modal share data exist.

Despite the lack of a global trend in public transit use, some cities, including Amsterdam, Edinburgh, and Leeds, report double-digit growth rates in the use of public transit.

Table 5. 2023–2024 adoption trend.

Unit: million pkm/yr

25th percentile -301,100
Mean 30,802
Median (50th percentile) 0.00
75th percentile 774,100
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Adoption Ceiling

Public transit could theoretically replace all trips currently undertaken by fossil fuel–powered cars. This would amount to 23 trillion pkm on public transit annually, worldwide (Table 6). This would not be feasible to achieve in practice, as it would require construction of new public transit vehicles and infrastructure on an unfeasibly large scale, and massive changes to living patterns for many people. It would also be much more expensive than we calculated above, because such a change would require extending public transit coverage into areas where it would be highly uneconomic. Public transit is capable of providing a good transportation option in rural areas, but there is a limit to its benefits when population densities are low even by rural standards. Even in cities, this scenario would require a radical redesign of some neighborhoods to prioritize public transit. Such large public transit coverage would also inevitably shift other modes of transportation, such as pedestrian travel and cycling, leading to an even higher pkm total than that suggested by current adoption of fossil fuel–powered cars.

Table 6. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Median (50th percentile) 22,502,000
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Achievable Adoption

The achievable range of public transit adoption is 12.0 to 17.7 trillion pkm traveled by public transit in cities globally.

To estimate the upper bound of achievable adoption, we assumed that urban trips taken by fossil fuel–powered car (currently 51.4% of trips globally) can be shifted to public transit until public transit increases to 76.6% of trips (the current highest modal share of public transit in any city with a population of more than 1 million) or until car travel decreases to 12.0% of trips (the current lowest modal share of fossil fuel–powered cars in any city with a population of more than 1 million). This equals a shift of 10.9  trillion pkm from fossil fuel–powered car travel to public transit, which, added to present-day public transit trips (6.8 trillion trips/yr), equals 17.7 trillion pkm/yr (Table 7).

To set the lower bound, we performed the same calculation as above, but on a regional basis, adding up all the resultant modal shifts to get a global figure. For example, every northern European city might reach the public transit modal share of London (44.5% of trips), while every South Asian city might reach that of Mumbai (52.0% of trips). Having done that, we then added together the public transit adoption rates from all world regions, apart from three (Polynesia, Micronesia, and Melanesia) for which we did not find any modal share data. This corresponds to a shift of 5.3 trillion pkm/yr from cars to public transit, and a total achievable public transit adoption rate of 12.0 trillion pkm/yr.

Achieving both of these levels of adoption would require not only major investments in expanding public transit networks, but also major changes in how cities are planned so as to allow more areas to be effectively served by transit. These levels of adoption would also require overcoming cultural and political resistance to abandoning cars in favor of public modes. However, unlike the scenario discussed under Adoption Ceiling, these scenarios are feasible, since they are based on real achievements by cities around the world.

Table 7. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Current adoption 6,784,000
Achievable – low 12,030,000
Achievable – high 17,670,000
Adoption ceiling 22,500,000
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If all public transit trips were taken by fossil fuel–powered cars instead of by public transit, they would result in an additional 0.40 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of emissions (Table 8).

The global potential climate impact of enhancing public transit, if all car trips were shifted onto public transit systems, is 1.31 Gt. As discussed under Adoption Ceiling, this is an unrealistic scenario.

In a more realistic scenario, if every city in the world shifted car traffic onto public transit until it reached the public transit modal share of Hong Kong (i.e., the high estimate of achievable adoption), it would save 1.03 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr globally. Meanwhile, if every city shifts car trips to public transit until it reaches the car modal share of the region’s least car-dependent city (i.e., the low estimate of achievable adoption), it would save 0.701 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr.

Table 8. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.395
Achievable – low 0.701
Achievable – high 1.029
Adoption ceiling 1.311
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

Investment in enhancing public transit can also generate substantial economic returns. The APTA estimated that each US$1 billion invested in transit can create 49,700 jobs and yield a five-to-one economic return (APTA, 2020). According to another study, shifting 50% of highway funds to mass transit systems in 20 U.S. metropolises could generate more than 1 million new transit jobs within five years (Swanstrom et al., 2010). 

Health

Improved air quality due to enhanced public transit has direct health benefits, such as lowering cardiovascular disease risk, and secondary health benefits, such as increased physical activity (Xiao et al., 2019), fewer traffic-related injuries, lower rates of cancer, and enhanced access to health-care facilities and nutritious food (Gouldson et al., 2018; Health Affairs, 2021).

Equality

Limited access to transportation restricts labor participation, particularly for women. Expanding public transit can foster gender equity by improving women’s access to employment opportunities. For example, in Peru expansion of public transit has led to improvements in women’s employment and earnings (Martinez et al., 2020). Similarly, in India, the extension of the light rail system in Delhi has increased women’s willingness to commute for work (Tayal & Mehta, 2021).

Public transit enhances community connectivity by providing accessible transportation options. Expanded mobility allows individuals to reach employment, health-care, education, and recreational sites with greater ease, heightening social inclusion. The social equity benefits of public transit are especially significant for low-income people in terms of time and cost savings and safety and health benefits (Serulle & Cirillo, 2016; Venter et al., 2017). 

Nature Protection

An indirect benefit of enhanced public transit is its contribution to reducing resource consumption, such as the minerals used in manufacturing personal vehicles. Enhanced public transit can also improve land-use efficiency by curbing urban sprawl, which helps reduce pollution and limit biodiversity loss (Ortiz, 2002). 

Air Quality

GHG emissions from transportation are often emitted with other harmful air pollutants. Consequently, reducing fuel consumption by replacing transport by fossil fuel–powered cars with public transit can lead to cleaner air. The scale of this benefit varies by location and is influenced by differences in emission levels between private and public transit travels and the relative demand substitutability between modes (Beaudoin et al., 2015). For U.S. cities, significant investment in public transit could cut pollution around 1.7% on average (Borck, 2019). The benefits are more significant in low- and middle-income countries, where fossil fuel–powered cars are more polluting due to lenient air quality regulations (Goel & Gupta, 2017; Guo & Chen, 2019).

Risks

If expanded service on high-quality public transit systems replaced journeys from nonmotorized transportation or electric bicycles rather than from cars – or if expanded service on high-quality public transit systems generated journeys that would not have otherwise happened – this will have a net-negative climate impact, since public transit has higher per-pkm GHG emissions than electric bicycles or not traveling (International Transport Forum, 2020). 

There may be cases where public transit networks cannot be implemented efficiently enough to provide a meaningful benefit compared to fossil fuel–powered cars in terms of GHG emissions. This would occur in places where there are so few potential riders that most trips would have a very low occupancy. The result would be a much higher rate of emissions per pkm. However, effective public transit networks can be built in suburban and even rural areas (Börjesson et al., 2020; Mees, 2010).

Finally, expanding public transit networks has proven very difficult in recent years. Entrenched preferences for car travel, reluctance on the part of governments to invest heavily in new transit infrastructure, and local political challenges over land use, noise, gentrification, and similar issues are all obstacles to increased public transit use. Public transit expansion has faced stronger headwinds in recent years in particular, due to both the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and competition from new (and mostly less sustainable) mobility services, such as app-based ride-hailing (Shaller, 2017).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

For people living without cars, public transit provides a crucial service that is hard to replace for certain kinds of trips, such as trips over long distances, with small children, or carrying large objects. As a result, public transit plays a large role in making it more viable for people to live without owning a car (Brown, 2017). Research suggests that the key to a low-carbon mobility system is to reduce the need for people to own cars altogether (Van Acker & Witlox, 2010).

Competing 

Electric cars, hybrid cars and electric scoters and motorcycles, and public transit compete for pkm. Consequently, increased use of public transit could reduce kilometers traveled using electric and hybrid cars and electric scooters and motorcycles.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

million passenger kilometers (million pkm)

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
00.12758.27median
units/yr
Current 6.784×10⁶ 01.203×10⁷1.767×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.395 0.7011.029
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-3,300
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

Public transit vehicles are sometimes unsafe, particularly for vulnerable groups such as women (Loukaitou-Sideris, 2014). In some circumstances – although this remains controversial – new public transit routes can also lead to gentrification of neighborhoods, forcing people to move far away from city centers and use cars for travel (Padeiro et al., 2019). 

Expansion of public transit networks could also have negative consequences in areas directly adjacent to transit infrastructure. Diesel buses create air pollution (Lovasi et al., 2022), and public transit networks of all types can create noise pollution (Hemmat et al., 2023).

Population (millions)
1
10
30
Active Mobility
Public Transport
Private Cars

Primary mode of transport

Mapping the primary mode of transportation reveals mobility patterns and opportunities to shift travel toward lower-emitting modes.

Prieto-Curiel, R. and Ospina, Juan P. (2024). The ABC of mobility [Data set]. Environmental International, Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108541. Retrieved May 9, 2025 from Link to source: https://github.com/rafaelprietocuriel/ModalShare

Population (millions)
1
10
30
Active Mobility
Public Transport
Private Cars

Primary mode of transport

Mapping the primary mode of transportation reveals mobility patterns and opportunities to shift travel toward lower-emitting modes.

Prieto-Curiel, R. and Ospina, Juan P. (2024). The ABC of mobility [Data set]. Environmental International, Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108541. Retrieved May 9, 2025 from Link to source: https://github.com/rafaelprietocuriel/ModalShare

Maps Introduction

Public transit is most effective in urban areas with high population density, where buses, subways, trams, and commuter rail can efficiently carry large numbers of passengers. Electrified or low-emission transit modes achieve the greatest climate impact, especially in regions with clean electricity grids (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018). However, even diesel-based public transit systems can outperform fossil fuel-powered cars on a per-pkm basis if they have high ridership and operate efficiently.

Socioeconomic and political factors, including investment capacity, institutional coordination, and public perceptions of reliability, safety, and comfort, highly influence the adoption and effectiveness of public transit. Regions with well-funded public infrastructure, integrated fare systems, and strong governance tend to have the highest adoption and climate benefits. Conversely, underinvestment, informal transit dominance, or poorly maintained systems can undermine public transit’s potential (Börjesson et al., 2020; Mees, 2010).

High public transit adoption is seen in Western and Northern Europe, Post-Soviet countries, East Asia (including Japan, South Korea, and China), and some Latin American cities, like Bogotá and Santiago. In contrast, many developing regions face barriers to public transit expansion, such as inadequate funding, urban sprawl, or a reliance on informal minibus systems. However, these same areas offer some of the highest potential for impact. Rapid urbanization, growing demand for mobility, and severe air quality challenges create strong incentives to expand and modernize transit networks.

Action Word
Enhance
Solution Title
Public Transit
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Use public transit and create incentive programs for government employees to use public transit.
  • Improve and invest in local public transit infrastructure, increasing routes and frequency while improving onboard safety, especially for women.
  • Electrify public buses, vans, and other vehicles used in the public transit system.
  • Implement the recommendations of transit-oriented development, such as increasing residential and commercial density, placing development near stations, and ensuring stations are easily accessible.
  • Provide online information, ticketing, and payment services.
  • Implement regional or nationwide public transit ticketing systems.
  • Consider a wide range of policy options that include demand-side options, such as free fare or fare reductions, and that are informed by citizen-centered approaches.
  • Create dedicated coordinating bodies across government agencies, businesses, and the public to develop public transit.
  • Disincentivize car trips in areas serviced by public transit through reduced access, increases in parking fares, congestion charges, taxes, or other means.
  • Incorporate social signaling in public transit information and signage, such as smiley faces and “sustainable transport” labels.
  • Develop public transit awareness campaigns – starting from early childhood – focusing on internally motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, free time while traveling, and lifestyle sustainability.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Use public transit and create incentive programs for government employees to utilize public transit.
  • Increase routes and frequency while also improving onboard safety, especially for women.
  • Electrify public buses, vans, and other vehicles used in the public transit system.
  • Incorporate social signaling in public transit information and signage, such as smiley faces and “sustainable transport” labels.
  • Provide online information, ticketing, and payment services
  • Implement regional or nationwide public transit ticketing systems.
  • Consider a wide range of policy options that include demand-side options, such as free fare or fare reductions, and that are informed through citizen-centered approaches.
  • Create dedicated coordinating bodies across government agencies, businesses, and the public to develop public transit.
  • Develop public transit awareness campaigns – starting from early childhood – focusing on internally motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, free time while traveling, and a sustainable lifestyle.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Use public transit and encourage employees to do so when feasible.
  • Encourage public transit use for company purposes.
  • Offer employees who agree to forego a free parking space the annualized cash value or cost of that parking space as a salary increase.
  • Incorporate company policies on public transit use into company sustainability and emission reduction initiatives and communicate how they support broader company goals.
  • Ensure your business is accessible via public transit and offer information on nearest access points both online and in person.
  • Offer employees pre-tax commuter benefits to include reimbursement for public transit expenses.
  • Create and distribute educational materials for employees on commuting best practices.
  • Partner with, support, and/or donate to infrastructure investments and public transit awareness campaigns.
  • Advocate for better public transit systems with city officials.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Use public transit and encourage staff to do so when feasible.
  • Offer staff pre-tax commuter benefits to include reimbursement for public transit expenses.
  • Offer employees who agree to forego a free parking space the annualized cash value or cost of that parking space as a salary increase.
  • Expand access to underserved communities by providing fare assistance through microgrants and/or public-private partnerships.
  • Create, support, or partner with existing public transit awareness campaigns that – starting from early childhood – focus on internally motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, free time while traveling, and a sustainable lifestyle.
  • Ensure your office is accessible via public transit and offer information – online and in person – on the nearest access points.
  • Advocate to policymakers for improved infrastructure and incentives for riders.
  • Advocate for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations where improvements can be made.
  • Encourage local businesses to create employee incentives.
  • Host or support community participation in local public transit infrastructure design.
  • Join public-private partnerships to encourage, improve, or operate public transit.

Further information:

Investors
  • Use public transit and encourage staff to do so when feasible.
  • Encourage public transit use for company purposes.
  • Invest in electric battery and component suppliers for public buses and vehicle fleets.
  • Deploy capital to efforts that improve public transit comfort, convenience, access, and safety.
  • Seek investment opportunities that reduce material and maintenance costs for public transit.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Use public transit and encourage staff to do so when feasible.
  • Award grants to local organizations advocating for improved public transit and services.
  • Expand access to underserved communities by providing fare assistance through microgrants and/or public-private partnerships.
  • Improve and finance local infrastructure and public transit capacity.
  • Build local capacity for infrastructure design, maintenance, and construction.
  • Assist with local policy design or provide means for assessments, data collection, citizen participation, and other steps in the policymaking process.
  • Create, support, or partner with existing public transit awareness campaigns that – starting from early childhood – focus on internally motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, free time while traveling, and a sustainable lifestyle.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Lead by example and use public transit regularly.
  • Create, support, or partner with existing public transit awareness campaigns that – starting from early childhood – focus on internally motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, free time while traveling, and a sustainable lifestyle.
  • Share detailed information on local public transit routes.
  • Assist with local policy design or provide means for assessments, data collection, citizen participation, and other steps in the policymaking process.
  • Advocate to policymakers for improved infrastructure, noting specific locations that need improvements and incentives for riders.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Use public transit and encourage your colleagues to use public transit when feasible.
  • Improve electric batteries and electrification infrastructure for public buses and vehicles.
  • Develop models for policymakers to demonstrate the impact of public transit policies on pollutant emissions, health, and other socioeconomic variables.
  • Conduct randomized control trials and collect longitudinal data on the impacts of interventions to increase public transit usage.
  • Innovate better, faster, and cheaper public transit networks – focusing on infrastructure, operations, and public transit vehicles.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Use public transit and encourage your household and neighbors to use public transit when feasible.
  • Share your experiences with public transit, as well as tips and reasons for choosing this mode of transportation.
  • Advocate to local officials for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations where improvements can be made.
  • Advocate to employers and local businesses to provide incentives and start local initiatives.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing transportation emissions: High

Experts agree that public transit usually produces fewer GHG/pkm than fossil fuel–powered cars (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018; Brunner et al., 2018; Ilie et al., 2014; International Transport Forum, 2020; Kennedy, 2002; Kuminek, 2013; Lim et al., 2021; Mahmoud et al., 2016; Rodrigues & Seixas, 2022; Sertsoz et al., 2013). There is also consensus on two points: First, shifting people from cars to public transit even under status-quo emissions levels will reduce transport emissions overall; second, opportunities exist to decarbonize the highest-emitting parts of public transit systems through electrification, especially buses (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023), public transit can help decrease vehicle travel and lower GHG emissions by reducing both the number and length of trips made in fossil fuel–powered cars (medium confidence). Adjustments to public transportation operations – such as increasing bus stop density, reducing the distance between stops and households, improving trip duration and frequency, and lowering fares – can encourage a shift from fossil fuel–powered car use to public transit.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2018) provides a good overview of the state of electric buses – a technology crucial to reduce the public transit fleet’s fossil fuel consumption, and help transition these fleets entirely to electric power. It determined that electric buses have significantly lower operating costs and can be more cost-effective than conventional buses when considering total ownership costs.

Litman (2024) found that “High quality (relatively fast, convenient, comfortable, and integrated) transit can attract discretionary passengers who would otherwise drive, which reduces traffic problems including congestion, parking costs, accidents, and pollution emissions. This provides direct user benefits, since they would not change mode if they did not consider themselves better off overall.”

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 28 reviews and meta-analyses and 23 original studies reflecting current evidence from 32 countries, primarily the American Public Transit Association (APTA, 2020), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2018), International Transport Forum (2020), and UITP (2024). We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
Coming Soon

Increase Carpooling

Sector
Transportation
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Shift to Alternatives
Image
Carpool lane sign
Coming Soon
Off

Key Takeaways

  • Carpooling reduces GHG emissions per passenger-kilometer by carrying more people in each vehicle and replacing trips made by people driving alone.
  • Increasing average global car occupancy from 1.5 to 1.7–2.7 people could avoid 0.25–0.96 Gt CO₂‑eq of GHG emissions annually.
  • Carpooling can lower travel costs (per passenger), traffic congestion, parking demand, fuel use, and air pollution.
  • Global car occupancy has remained flat for decades, constrained by schedule coordination, convenience, privacy, trust, and safety concerns.
Summary

Carpooling entails increasing the occupancy of passenger cars, including taxis, pickup trucks, motorhomes, passenger vans and other such vehicles but not including two- or three-wheeled, freight, public transit, or commercial vehicles, such as buses, heavy trucks, and commercial vans. It replaces the practice of driving alone.

We define Increase Carpooling as having at least one passenger per car in addition to the driver (two passengers for ride-hailing). We consider a fully adopted carpool trip as having 2 passengers for a car occupancy of three. New adoption is considered as any passenger kilometer (pkm)/yr avoided from an increase in the 2023 current adoption baseline (average occupancy of 1.5).

Income & work,Health,Equality
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Carpooling is a Highly Recommended climate solution. By increasing car occupancy, it cuts per-capita GHG emissions, reduces congestion, maximizes the use of existing infrastructure, and saves money.
Overview

Carpooling involves transporting multiple people in a single car. Because carpooling increases the number of passengers per vehicle, it reduces emissions per pkm (International Transport Forum [ITF], 2021). However, the actual impact depends on how the carpool trip is organized – for example, whether it replaces solo car trips or shifts people away from public or active transport.

Carpooling is generally more efficient when ride-matching is optimized. If trips involve detours to pick up passengers, the benefits can be reduced. Similarly, carpooling may offer less advantage in areas with strong public transportation systems if it replaces public transport use (Schaller, 2021).

In addition to reducing emissions of CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide, (ITF, 2023), carpooling can help alleviate traffic congestion and reduce demand for parking (Dong et al., 2025). It may also lower transportation costs for participants (Fulton et al., 2020). However, the full benefits depend on usage patterns, geographic context, and integration with other transport modes.

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Credits

Lead Fellows

  • Heather Jones, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Every million pkm shifted from car trips (at the current car occupancy) to fully adopted carpool trips avoids 54.71 t/CO₂‑eq on a 100-yr basis (Table 1) or 55.28 t/CO₂‑eq on a 20-yr basis. 

We found this by calculating baseline car GHG emissions from the global private vehicle fleet, by multiplying the tailpipe emissions intensities of different types of fuels (g/MJ) by the energy intensity of travel by vehicles using those fuels (MJ/vkm) (EV Database, 2024; Graba et al., 2023; International Energy Agency [IEA], 2021; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2006; ITF, 2020; Mamala et al., 2021; Tsai et al., 2018; U.S. Department of Energy [DOE], 2017). These equaled 112.4 t/CO₂‑eq /million pkm on a 100-year basis (113.6 t/CO₂‑eq /million pkm on a 20-year basis). We multiplied these emissions by the average occupancy of each vehicle type (ITF, 2020) to produce an average emissions intensity for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide for every vehicle type. We then combined these into a global weighted average based on the percentage of each type of vehicle (electric, hybrid and fossil fuel–powered) in the global fleet (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe [UNECE], 2023). The result is a car baseline for the global average emissions intensity of passenger cars. 

We then used the global GHG emissions intensity to calculate carpool emissions based on the carpool car occupancy and subtracted them from the baseline car occupancy to determine emissions avoided.

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-year basis)/million pkm avoided

25th percentile 48.77
Mean 57.72
Median (50th percentile) 54.71
75th percentile 66.72
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Cost

It costs US$0.34/pkm to run a car (at current global average occupancy of 1.5 (ITF, 2020)), including car purchase and maintenance costs, fuel, etc., but excluding indirect costs such as the value of time spent driving a car. It costs US$0.17/pkm for a fully adopted carpool ride (car occupancy of 3). This is a savings of US$170,662/million pkm (AAA, 2022; Burnham et al., 2021; Gössling et al., 2019, 2022). These direct financial costs do not include estimates of additional fuel needed due to additional weight of passengers or additional mileage due to pick up and drop off.

 

This amounts to savings of US$3,119/t CO₂‑eq on a 100-year basis (Table 2) or US$3,087/t CO₂‑eq avoided emissions on a 20-year basis. 

Table 2: Cost per unit climate impact.

Unit: US$ (2023)/t CO₂‑eq (100-year basis)

Median -3,119
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Carpooling is a behavioral solution, so its performance can improve over time through scaling, experience, and social normalization but not at a quantifiable learning rate. 

The most important mechanism for increasing carpooling is behavioral familiarity. As people become accustomed to carpooling, social and psychological barriers decline (Adelé & Dionisio, 2020; Malodia & Singla, 2016). Another mechanism that can improve carpooling performance is platform optimization. As apps and algorithms improve, matching riders becomes faster and more efficient (Beed et al., 2020; Santi et al., 2014). Network effects can also improve performance. More users increase the chance of shared trips, reducing wait times and detours (Dong et al., 2025; Manik & Molkenthin, 2020). Over time, through policy support and incentives, cities may develop dedicated lanes, subsidies, or integration with public transport, improving performance (Anthopoulos & Tzimos, 2021; Bachmann et al., 2018).

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Increase Carpooling is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

Carpooling often falters due to the difficulty of aligning multiple participants’ schedules. Commuters face mismatched work hours, unexpected delays, or shifting routines, raising stress and reducing reliability. Comfort and privacy are additional deterrents because many travelers prefer the autonomy and personal space of driving alone. Trust and safety concerns also play a major role – riding with strangers raises worries about reliability and personal security (Cellina et al., 2024).

Accessibility further complicates adoption. In low-density areas, the limited pool of potential passengers makes ride-matching impractical, while in urban areas cultural resistance and ingrained travel habits hinder uptake (Friman et al., 2020). Finally, digital divides restrict participation in app-based systems, excluding those without reliable smartphone or internet access.

When carpooling uses platform operators it generates some emissions from server use, data processing, and administrative activities. These operational emissions are small compared to the reductions achieved.

Current Adoption

The current car occupancy is 1.5 persons per car (ITF, 2020). Approximately 2 billion cars are in use worldwide (WHO, 2022). To convert this number into pkm traveled by car, we needed to determine the average pkm that each passenger car travels per year. Using population-weighted data from several countries, we found that the average car carries 1.5 people and travels about 19,500 vkm/yr, or an average of 29,250 pkm/yr. Multiplying this by the number of cars in use gives the total travel distance by cars with the current occupancy. This corresponds to about 59 trillion pkm traveled by car worldwide each year. 

Current car occupancy is from a global average (ITF, 2020), and adoption trend and achievable adoption are based on reported car occupancy from Belgium, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Romania, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Union (Armoogum et al., 2022; Davis & Boundy, 2022; European Environment Agency [EEA], 2000; Fiorello et al., 2016; Franckx, 2024; Wolfram et al., 2020).

Since 1.5 persons per car is the current occupancy average, we define adoption as the increase in avoided pkm/yr as a result of increased occupancy above 1.5. For this reason, current adoption is represented as zero (Table 3), and potential adoption in Table 6 is the increase in million pkm avoided each year.

Table 3. Current (2024) adoption level.

Unit: million pkm/yr avoided above current levels

Median, or population-weighted mean 0
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Adoption Trend

Average world car occupancy has been flat since the 1990s after declining from higher occupancy in the 1970s. Therefore, we set the adoption trend to zero (Table 4). 

For example, car occupancy in the United States decreased from 1.9 in 1977 to 1.7 in 2009 and held steady at 1.7 in 2017 (Davis & Boundy, 2022). The European Union car occupancy decreased from 2.0 in 1970 to 1.5 in 1990, where it has held steady (EEA, 2000). Despite the emergence of carpooling platforms like BlaBlaCar, Carpoolworld, Liftshare, Participation, Lyft, and Uber Share (formerly known as) Uber Pool, overall car occupancy has remained largely unchanged. These advances have improved convenience and access, but structural barriers such as travel time mismatches, privacy preferences, and urban sprawl continue to limit adoption. 

Table 4. Adoption trend (2023–2024).

Unit: million pkm/yr avoided above current levels

Median, or population-weighted mean 0
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Adoption Ceiling

The adoption ceiling for increasing carpooling is equal to the pkm/yr avoidance if every car trip is a fully adopted carpool trip instead of the baseline adoption. Using a population-weighted mean of the average distance (in pkm) traveled per car annually, this translates to about 19.71 trillion pkm/yr avoided (Table 5). We assume that all of these trips can be made by carpool, regardless of purpose or distance. 

Romania reports a car occupancy of 2.7 (Fiorello et al., 2016), more than double the multi-occupancy of countries like the United States, where occupancy has remained around 1.5–1.7 for decades (Davis & Boundy, 2022; ITF, 2020; Wolfram et al., 2020). This demonstrates that significantly higher occupancy is not only possible but already practiced in certain contexts.

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption level. 

Unit: million pkm/yr avoided above current levels

Median, or population-weighted mean 19,710,000
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Achievable Adoption

Current car occupancy is useful for identifying globally achievable occupancy (Armoogum et al., 2022; Davis & Boundy, 2022; EEA, 2000; Fiorello et al., 2016; Franckx, 2024; ITF, 2023; Wolfram et al., 2020). 

To determine the high achievable level of carpool adoption, we assumed that every country could reach the highest adoption for any country. Romania had the highest reported average car occupancy at 2.7 (Fiorello et al., 2016) in 2016. We therefore set our high adoption at 2.7. This corresponds to 17.5 trillion pkm/yr avoided (Table 6). 

To identify a lower feasible level of carpool adoption, we took the historical average reported estimates for global car occupancy. This corresponds to a car occupancy of 1.7, or 5 trillion pkm/yr avoided by carpooling (Table 6).

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: million pkm/yr avoided above current levels

Current adoption 0.00
Achievable – low 4,638,000
Achievable – high 17,520,000
Adoption ceiling (physical limit) 19,710,000
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If average car occupancy globally reaches the low end of the achievable range of 1.7, it will avoid 0.254 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr GHG emissions (100-yr basis) over the current state.

If average car occupancy reaches 2.7 (the high end of the achievable range), it will avoid 0.959 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr GHG emissions (100-yr basis) over the current state.

If carpooling is fully adopted at a global average car occupancy of 3.0 (adoption ceiling), it would avoid 1.079 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr GHG emissions on a 100-yr basis.

Table7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption above current levels.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq per year avoided, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.000
Achievable – low 0.254
Achievable – high 0.959
Adoption ceiling (physical limit) 1.079
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

Carpooling can save money through shared travel costs between passengers (Chan & Shaheen, 2012; Molina et al., 2020; Shaheen et al., 2024). One study estimated that adding one passenger for every 100 vehicles, excluding any additional travel, could avoid 800–820 million gallons of gasoline each year in the United States (Jacobson & King, 2009). Actual cost savings would depend on the price of gasoline and any additional travel required to pick up passengers. These savings may be especially beneficial for low-income households (Zhou et al., 2020). 

Health

Tailpipe emissions from internal combustion engine cars are associated with asthma, lung cancer, increased emergency department visits for respiratory disease, and increased mortality (Anenberg et al., 2019; Guarnieri & Balmes, 2014; Pan et al., 2023; Pennington et al., 2024; Requia et al., 2018; Szyszkowicz et al., 2018). Urban areas, and often those in low- and middle-income countries, experience disproportionately higher vehicle emissions and higher health impacts (Anenberg et al., 2019; Kinney et al., 2011). By reducing vehicle miles traveled, carpooling can reduce vehicle emissions and associated health impacts (Shaheen et al., 2024). A reduction in vehicle miles traveled can improve traffic congestion and road safety (Shaheen et al., 2024). Carpooling is associated with several psychological benefits, including improved sociability and reduced commute stress (Chan & Shaheen, 2012; Molina et al., 2020).

Equality

Communities that are lower income or rich in racial and ethnic minorities tend to be located near highways and major traffic corridors, and so are disproportionately exposed to air pollution (Kerr et al., 2021). Carpooling can reduce the impacts of air pollution on these populations (Shaheen et al., 2024). In the United States, carpooling can increase the accessibility of transportation for low-income, racial and ethnic minority, or immigrant populations who cannot afford personal vehicles or cannot attain driver’s licenses (Liu & Painter, 2012; Shaheen et al., 2024). Enhanced access to transportation broadly is important for increasing economic equality by providing households with income-earning opportunities.

Air Quality

Tailpipe emissions from internal combustion engine cars contain particulate matter, sulfur oxides, nitrous oxides, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2023). Carpooling is associated with reduced energy consumption and reduced emissions from internal combustion engine cars (Molina et al., 2020; Shaheen et al., 2024). Carpooling can reduce traffic congestion, though the magnitude of this reduction is uncertain (Chan & Shaheen, 2011). One study in Langfang, China, found that carpooling can reduce trips during the morning and evening commuting hours, reducing vehicle volume and increasing travel speeds for both carpooling and non-carpooling cars (Li et al., 2018).

Risks

Carpooling services could induce additional car use, especially if they offer convenience and low costs that attract people who would otherwise not have traveled or would have used lower-emission modes. This is a form of the rebound effect, where efficiency gains are offset by increased travel demand.

Carpooling may raise safety and security concerns, particularly in informal or app-based systems where passengers share rides with strangers. Concerns around personal safety, especially for women and marginalized groups, can limit adoption or require regulatory oversight.

Promoting carpooling without coordination with public transport policy could erode ridership on bus or rail systems. This could weaken investment in public transit and make systems less viable, especially in low-density or suburban areas.

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Carpooling reinforces non-car transportation modes by extending reach, offering first- and last-mile connections, and providing flexible options where fixed-route services are limited.

Carpooling reinforces the benefits of electric and hybrid cars by maximizing each vehicle’s efficiency, spreading battery and fuel savings across more passengers, and further reducing per-capita emissions.

Competing 

Carpooling, electric bicycles, and public transit compete for pkm. Consequently, increased use of carpooling could reduce kilometers traveled using public transit or electric bicycles. 

Dashboard

Solution Basics

million pkm avoided

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
048.7754.71median
units/yr
Current 0 04.638×10⁶1.752×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current Not Determined 0.2540.959
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-3,119
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

Carpooling reduces the number of vehicles on the road per trip but still relies on cars rather than shifting demand toward lower-impact modes such as public transit or nonmotorized transportation.

Carpooling requires changes in user behavior and social norms, rather than technological innovation. While this avoids the environmental and financial costs of new infrastructure or vehicles, it can be challenging because it depends on people being willing to alter their travel habits, coordinate with others, and potentially sacrifice convenience or privacy.

The extent of emission reduction depends on how many people share the ride and whether the carpool replaces trips that would have otherwise been made using more sustainable transport modes (e.g., walking, cycling, or public transport).

The environmental benefits of carpooling vary based on travel behavior and context. If carpooling fills otherwise empty seats in cars already on the road, it can be highly efficient. However, if it results in route detours or deadheading or if people shift from using transit to carpooling, the net benefit may be smaller or even negative.

Carpooling can reduce the overall number of cars needed for transportation, which in turn can decrease congestion and urban parking demand. However, this benefit is limited if carpooling is only used during peak hours or if it competes with active or public transport options.

Action Word
Increase
Solution Title
Carpooling
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Incorporate carpooling into government transportation policy; facilitate carpooling systems, encourage and incentivize employee participation, and ensure leaders are committed to and participate in carpooling.
  • Create dedicated coordinating bodies across government agencies, businesses, and the public to develop carpooling systems; conduct regular movement planning to identify changes in participation and opportunities to increase adoption.
  • Reduce the number of fleet vehicles and increase passenger capacity as much as possible.
  • Use a combination of policies that both incentivizes carpooling and disincentivizes single occupancy trips.
  • Implement disincentives for driving such as congestion tolls, fuel taxes, and smog fees (based on how much a car pollutes and is driven).
  • Implement targeted support measures such as carpool lanes, the option to use bus lanes, and dedicated parking spots.
  • Deploy financial incentives such as tax breaks, reduced or waived toll fare, and subsidies for carpoolers.
  • Fund public carpooling schemes or subsidize private carpooling initiatives.
  • Fund free “guaranteed ride home” initiatives for carpoolers via public transit or private taxis/rideshares.
  • Integrate private and individual carpooling initiatives into Mobility as a Service (MaaS) systems, allowing for seamless transfers between public and private transportation systems.
  • Clarify legal structures around carpooling to allow drivers to accept reimbursement while remaining noncommercial operators; ensure the maximum allowable fees are enough to incentivize drivers while not outcompeting public transportation.
  • Develop regulatory structures for web-based carpooling applications that focus on minimum standards related to security, data privacy, and consumer protection; mandate user verification, create a registration system for users, and offer ongoing support for safety and security.
  • Encourage carpooling platforms to enact data-sharing agreements; mandate trip details be shared with regulatory agencies, and cross-reference user identities with national databases to screen for relevant criminal backgrounds.
  • Work with universities, businesses, and other large institutions to encourage carpooling schemes; engage in public-private partnerships with carpooling matching services to increase adoption.
  • Report on success of carpooling efforts including number of drivers and users, fuel reductions, and emissions avoidance.
  • Develop carpooling awareness campaigns focusing on internally motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and lifestyle sustainability.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Conduct mobility planning with local government agencies and the public to optimize routes and decrease waiting times.
  • Cluster pick-up and drop-off zones near freeways, residential areas, parking, public transit, and/or popular commercial areas – ensuring well-lit environments.
  • Host events for carpoolers, create in-person carpooling clubs, and start social media groups for carpoolers to build trust.
  • Offer incentives for joining and participating in carpooling programs; collaborate with local government and businesses to offer incentives.
  • Create web applications and websites for matching services that are easy to use, have a professional user interface, and have built-in chat features to build trust for participants.
  • Integrate carpooling initiatives into MaaS systems, allowing for seamless transfers between public and private transportation systems.
  • Use a carpool application screening process to increase trust and safety; gather information on motivations for carpooling to help match like-minded participants.
  • Allow drivers to set their own fees (within a maximum allowable range) or to waive fees for passengers; allow for nonmonetary compensation.
  • Ensure drivers and passengers have public profiles with ratings to allow participants to select drivers and passengers; create filters for categories such as gender, preferred levels of socialization, trip purpose, etc; allow for women-only trips.
  • Designate clear responsibilities for both drivers and passengers.
  • Encourage participants to socialize with each other and to share their experiences and insights with their community.
  • Collect feedback from participants and update web-based matching applications to accommodate local preferences and culture.
  • Create features on web applications that show how much money, fuel, and emissions participants have avoided by carpooling; create competitions for biggest avoiders and most active participants; develop gamification methods appropriate for the local context.
  • Ensure applications offer real-time support and ride tracking to enhance safety and trust.
  • Collaborate with insurance companies to offer carpooling policies that cover injury, property damage, and liability during trips.
  • Develop carpooling awareness campaigns focusing on factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and lifestyle sustainability.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Develop company policies promoting carpooling; communicate to employees and the public how they support broader company goals; ensure leadership is committed and participates in carpooling.
  • Develop systems to track and plan fleet routes that encourage carpooling.
  • Reduce the number of fleet vehicles and increase passenger capacity.
  • Ask staff, including senior management, to identify barriers and opportunities for carpooling.
  • Work with large institutions such as universities, businesses, and public agencies to coordinate wider carpooling schemes; partner with carpooling matching services.
  • Report on success of carpooling efforts, including number of drivers and users, fuel reductions, and emissions avoidance.
  • Pay a cash bonus or offer pretax benefits for staff who carpool or take public transportation.
  • If your company offers employees courtesy rides via rideshare platforms, incentivize carpooling by covering 100% of carpool trips but only a portion of individual trips.
  • Offer other perks for employees who carpool such as preferred parking.
  • Partner with local and/or private carpooling initiatives to offer promotional incentives such as gift cards or discounts.
  • Create and distribute educational materials for employees on carpooling and commuting best practices.
  • Partner with, support, and/or donate to carpooling infrastructure investments and awareness campaigns.
  • Advocate for better public carpooling policies and integrated services with public transit systems.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Develop policies promoting carpooling; communicate to employees and the public how they support broader organizational goals; ensure leadership is committed and participates in carpooling.
  • Develop systems to track and plan fleet routes that encourage carpooling.
  • Reduce the number of vehicles and increasing passenger capacity as much as possible.
  • Ask staff, including senior management to identify barriers and opportunities for carpooling.
  • Report on success of carpooling efforts including number of drivers and users, fuel reductions, and emissions avoided.
  • Pay a cash bonus or provide pretax benefits for staff who carpool (or take public transportation).
  • Offer other perks for employees who carpool such as preferred parking.
  • Administer carpooling schemes using web-based applications; expand carpooling services to underserved communities by creating matching services or subsidizing participation.
  • Work with large institutions such as universities, businesses, and public agencies to coordinate wider carpooling schemes; partner with carpooling matching services.
  • Advocate for better public carpooling regulations and services with local officials.
  • Help design local regulations to clarify legal classification for carpool drivers or provide means for assessments, data collection, citizen participation, and other steps in the policymaking process.
  • Host or support carpooling clubs, events, social media groups, and other strategies for promoting carpooling.
  • Create, support, or partner with carpooling awareness campaigns that focus on motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and a sustainable lifestyle.

Further information:

Investors
  • Encourage employees to carpool.
  • Encourage portfolio companies to incentivize, provide, or promote carpooling opportunities and infrastructure, and to share fleet management plans.
  • Invest in companies that are improving the comfort, accessibility, and cost of carpooling infrastructure.
  • Invest in companies that provide or are developing web-based carpooling matching algorithms or services.
  • Invest in companies that provide MaaS and integration with existing mobility services.
  • Invest in carpooling models, supportive technology, and infrastructure.
  • Deploy capital to efforts that increase safety, trust, and convenience of web-based applications that support carpooling, such as methods of encryption and ways to integrate services into public transportation systems.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Develop organizational policies promoting carpooling; communicate to employees and the public how they support broader organizational goals; ensure leadership is committed and participates in carpooling.
  • Develop systems to track and plan fleet routes to enable carpooling.
  • Reduce the number of fleet vehicles and increase passenger capacity.
  • Award grants to organizations developing or organizing carpooling services and/or advocating for improved carpooling regulations; fund projects that pilot carpooling in underserved areas and transit deserts.
  • Invest in companies that provide or are developing web-based carpooling matching services or integration with public transit infrastructure and existing mobility services.
  • Deploy capital to efforts that increase safety, trust, and convenience of web-based applications that support carpooling such as methods of encryption and ways to integrate services into public transportation systems.
  • Administer carpooling schemes using web-based applications; expand carpooling services to underserved communities by creating matching services or subsidizing participation.
  • Advocate for better public carpooling policies and integrated services with public transit systems.
  • Work with large institutions such as universities, businesses, and public agencies to coordinate wider carpooling schemes; partner with carpooling matching services.
  • Create, support, or partner with carpooling awareness campaigns that focus on motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and a sustainable lifestyle.
  • Host or support carpooling clubs, events, social media groups, and other strategies for promoting carpooling.
  • Improve and finance local infrastructure such as high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes and carpooling capacity.
  • Help design local regulations to clarify legal classification for carpool drivers or provide means for assessments, data collection, citizen participation, and other steps in the policymaking process.
  • Develop carpooling awareness campaigns focusing on motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and lifestyle sustainability.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Lead by example and carpool regularly.
  • Share information on carpooling initiatives.
  • Develop carpooling awareness campaigns focusing on motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and lifestyle sustainability.
  • Help design regulations to clarify legal classification for carpool drivers or provide means for assessments, data collection, citizen participation, and other steps in the policymaking process.
  • Advocate for better public carpooling regulations and services with local officials.
  • Conduct local market research on specific demographics and professions to understand what incentives or disincentives will drive adoption.
  • Host events for carpoolers, create in-person carpooling clubs, and start social media groups for local carpoolers to build trust and community offline.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Develop applications that match users with carpooling opportunities based on routes, time, and location, and integrate them with local public transportation and other mobility services.
  • Use data from mobile phones, GPS trackers, and social networking to identify travelers with similar patterns and suggest carpooling routes.
  • Develop safety protocols for data usage in carpooling apps; create options for women-only rides.
  • Research the impact of incentives and disincentives on modal choice in specific metropolitan areas, regions, and countries; identify the most effective means of increasing adoption.
  • Research what impacts trust between users and carpooling platforms and between users and drivers; investigate differences in trust by local demographic characteristics; examine mechanisms for increasing trust and safety for users.
  • Research the impact of vehicle ownership on willingness to carpool, and how participating as both a driver and passenger can influence adoption.
  • Develop ways to maintain data privacy for participants while also allowing for transparency and safety; examine applications of encryption methods such as homomorphic encryption.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Carpool regularly and encourage your household, neighbors, and community to carpool when feasible.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, or grants for carpooling.
  • Share information on local carpooling initiatives with your community.
  • Host events for carpoolers, create carpooling clubs, and start social media groups for local carpoolers to build trust offline.
  • Advocate for better public carpooling regulations and services with local officials.
  • Encourage employers and local businesses to provide incentives for carpooling.
  • Participate in or develop carpooling awareness campaigns focusing on motivating factors such as money saved, health benefits, reduced pollution, social connection, and lifestyle sustainability.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in decarbonizing the transport sector: Mixed

There is a high level of consensus among major organizations working in the area of climate solutions that carpooling can substantially reduce GHG emissions. Fewer vehicles mean less fuel burned per pkm. However, research on the real-world effectiveness of carpooling is mixed. Carpooling has remained largely flat for decades despite policy incentives and the advent of ride-sharing platforms, limiting its overall contribution to emission reductions. Additionally, rebound effects may occur or if carpoolers would otherwise have taken public transit, walked, or biked, thereby offsetting some emission avoidance. 

Globally, cars and vans were responsible for 3.8 Gt CO₂‑eq emissions in 2023 – more than 60% of road transport emissions (IEA, 2024).

Large-scale carpooling can significantly reduce fuel consumption and emissions, with studies in Shanghai showing reductions of 15–23% depending on adoption scenarios, and additional efficiency gains from improved traffic flow (Yan et al., 2020).

Carpooling can substantially reduce vehicle activity. Jalali et al. (2017) found up to a 24% decrease in total distance driven and a 40% reduction in vehicle trips under optimal conditions in Changsha, China, which translates into daily CO₂ emission reductions of around 4 tons.

Simulations on university campuses showed potential reductions of 5% in CO₂ and 7% in nitrous oxide emissions, alongside a 7% increase in average speed and an 8% reduction in travel time with increased adoption of carpooling (Tomas et al., 2021).

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 15 reviews and meta-analyses and 24 original studies reflecting current evidence from 52 countries. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date
Coming Soon Label
Coming Soon

Improve Nonmotorized Transportation

Sector
Transportation
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Shift to Alternatives
Image
Many people in a crosswalk viewed from above
Coming Soon
Off

Key Takeaways

  • Shifting car trips to walking and cycling can avoid nearly all direct GHG emissions associated with fossil fuel–powered car travel.
  • Nonmotorized transportation is inexpensive and can improve physical health, air quality, road safety, and access to local businesses.
  • Safe, connected infrastructure and compact land-use patterns are critical to the adoption of nonmotorized transportation, and climate benefits are greatest when walking and cycling replace car trips.
Summary

We define Improve Nonmotorized Transportation as increasing any form of travel that does not use a motor or engine. In theory, this includes a huge range of transportation modes, including horses, cross-country skis, sailboats, hand-operated rickshaws, and animal-drawn carriages. In practice, pedestrian travel and cycling account for most nonmotorized utilitarian passenger travel.

Income & work,Health
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Improve Nonmotorized Transportation is a Highly Recommended climate solution. Walking and cycling reduce GHG emissions, promote health, and require minimal infrastructure.
Overview

Travel shifted from motorized to nonmotorized transportation saves GHG emissions – mostly CO₂, but also small amounts of nitrous oxide and methane (Center for Sustainable Systems, 2023) – that a fossil fuel-powered car would otherwise emit. 

We divided nonmotorized transportation into three subcategories: 1) pedestrian travel, including walking and the use of mobility aids such as wheelchairs; 2) private bicycles owned by the user, meaning that they are typically used for both the outgoing and return legs of a trip; and 3) shared bicycles, which are sometimes used for only one leg of a trip and so have to be repositioned by other means.

Pedestrian travel

Pedestrian travel (including both walking and travel using mobility aids such as wheelchairs) has the advantage of being something that most people can do and often does not require special equipment or dedicated infrastructure (although some infrastructure, such as sidewalks, can be helpful). Pedestrian travel is 81.7% of global urban nonmotorized pkm. 

Private bicycles

Private bicycles cost money and require maintenance but enable travel at much faster speeds and therefore longer distances. Private bicycles are 13% of global urban nonmotorized pkm.

Shared bicycles 

Shared bicycles eliminate the financial overhead of bicycle ownership, but usually only permit travel within specific urban areas and sometimes between established docking stations. Shared bicycles are 5.1% of global urban nonmotorized pkm. 

Note that we did not include electric bicycles in this analysis. Electric bicycles are analyzed as a separate solution.

While improving nonmotorized transportation can be a valuable climate solution virtually anywhere, we limit our analysis to cities due to the high number of relatively short-distance trips and the abundance of available data compared with rural locations.

The fuel for cycling and pedestrian travel is the food the traveler eats. When the traveler metabolizes the food, they produce CO₂. Some studies factor the GHG emissions produced by the added metabolism required by nonmotorized transportation into its climate impact because of the emissions that come from the food system (Mizdrak et al., 2020). This is controversial, however, because it is unclear whether pedestrians and cyclists have a higher calorie intake than people who travel in other ways (Noussan et al., 2022). Furthermore, additional food eaten to fuel physical labor is not typically counted in life-cycle analyses. This analysis, therefore, does not consider the upstream climate impacts of food calories that fuel cycling, pedestrian travel, driving, or any other activity.

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Noussan, M., Campisi, E., & Jarre, M. (2022). Carbon intensity of passenger transport modes: A review of emission factors, their variability and the main drivers. Sustainability, 14(17), Article 17. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710652

Prieto-Curiel, R., & Ospina, J. P. (2024). The ABC of mobility. Environment International, 185, 108541. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108541

Pro Cycling Coaching. (2025). Bike Time Calculator: How Long Does It Take to Bike Any Distance. Link to source: https://www.procyclingcoaching.com/resources/bike-time-calculator 

Rodriguez Mendez, Q., Fuss, S., Lück, S., & Creutzig, F. (2024). Assessing global urban CO2 removal. Nature Cities, 1(6), 413–423. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-024-00069-x

Roser, M. (2024). Data review: How many people die from air pollution? Our World in Data. Link to source: https://ourworldindata.org/data-review-air-pollution-deaths

Seum, S., Schulz, A., & Phleps, P. (2020). The future of driving in the BRICS countries (study update 2019). Institute for Mobility Research. Link to source: https://elib.dlr.de/135710/1/2019_ifmo_BRICS_reloaded_en1.pdf

Shindell, D. T., Lee, Y., & Faluvegi, G. (2016). Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 503–507. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2935

Staatsen, B., Nijland, H., Kempen, E., van Hollander, A., de Franssen, A., & Kamp, I. (2004). Assessment of health impacts and policy options in relation to transport-related noise exposures (815120002).

State of Colorado. (2016). Economic and health benefits of cycling and walking. Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade.. ttps://choosecolorado.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Economic-and-Health-Benefits-of-Bicycling-and-Walking-in-Colorado-4.pdf

Statistics Netherlands. (2024). Mobility; per person, personal characteristics, modes of travel and regions [webpage]. Statistics Netherlands. Link to source: https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/detail/84709ENG

TNMT. (2021). The environmental impact of today’s transport types. TNMT. Link to source: https://tnmt.com/infographics/carbon-emissions-by-transport-type/

Van Acker, V., & Witlox, F. (2010). Car ownership as a mediating variable in car travel behaviour research using a structural equation modelling approach to identify its dual relationship. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(1), 65–74. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.05.006

Verma, S., Dwivedi, G., & Verma, P. (2022). Life cycle assessment of electric vehicles in comparison to combustion engine vehicles: A review. Materials Today: Proceedings, 49, 217–222. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.666

Volker, J. M. B., & Handy, S. (2021). Economic impacts on local businesses of investments in bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure: A review of the evidence. Transport Reviews, 41(4), 401–431. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2021.1912849

WHO. (2023). Despite notable progress, road safety remains urgent global issue. Link to source: https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2023-despite-notable-progress-road-safety-remains-urgent-global-issue

Xia, T., Zhang, Y., Crabb, S., & Shah, P. (2013). Cobenefits of replacing car trips with alternative transportation: A review of evidence and methodological issues. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2013(1), 797312. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/797312

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Cameron Roberts, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel , Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Heather Jones, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D. 

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Ted Otte

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.
Effectiveness

Nonmotorized transportation can save 115.6 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm, compared with fossil fuel–powered cars (Table 1). This makes it a highly effective climate solution. Every trip shifted from a fossil fuel–powered car to cycling or pedestrian travel avoids most, if not all, of the GHG emissions associated with car travel. Nonmotorized transportation effectiveness is calculated by taking the share of each mode and multiplying it by its effectiveness, and adding this value from all three modes. 

Cars produce 116 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm (International Transport Forum, 2020; IPCC, 2023; Montoya-Torres et al., 2023; TNMT, 2021; Verma et al., 2022). Note that this value does not correspond directly to the estimates arrived at in most of these references because it is common practice to include embodied and upstream emissions in life-cycle calculations. Because we do not include embodied and upstream emissions (which are accounted for in other solutions), our estimate for the current emissions from the global vehicle fleet comes from an original calculation using values from these sources and arrives at a lower figure than they do.

Pedestrian travel and private bicycles have negligible direct emissions (Bonilla-Alicea et al., 2020; Brand et al., 2021; International Transport Forum, 2020; Noussan et al., 2022; TNMT, 2021). This means people avoid all direct GHG emissions from driving fossil fuel–powered cars when they use nonmotorized transportation instead. Thus, shifting from cars to nonmotorized transportation saves 116 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm, not including indirect emissions, such as those from manufacturing the equipment and infrastructure necessary for those forms of mobility. Life-cycle emissions from cycling are approximately 12 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm, most of which come from manufacturing bicycles (Bonilla-Alicea et al., 2019; Brand et al., 2021; ITF, 2020; Montoya-Torres et al., 2023; Noussan et al., 2020; TNMT, 2021), while emissions from pedestrian travel are negligible (TNMT, 2021). These life-cycle emissions are not quantified for this analysis, but may be addressed by other solutions in the industrial sector.

Shared bicycles provide fewer emissions savings than privately owned bicycles do. Shared bicycle schemes have direct GHG emissions of 7.49 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm, about 109 fewer than the average fossil fuel-powered car. Because people sometimes use shared bicycles for one-way trips, the bike-sharing system can become unbalanced, with fewer bicycles in places where people start their journeys and more bicycles in places where people end them. This is fixed by driving the shared bicycles from places with surplus to places with shortage, which increases emissions. The total increase in emissions caused by this can be mitigated through measures such as using electric vehicles to reposition the bikes or incentivizing riders to reposition the bicycles themselves without the use of a vehicle. 

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /million pkm, 100-yr basis

Nonmotorized transportation
25th percentile 99.33
Mean 118.8
Median (50th percentile) 115.6
75th percentile 136.9
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Cost

Driving a fossil fuel–powered car has private costs (i.e., those that accrue to the motorist themselves) of US$0.25/pkm and public costs (for roads, lights, traffic enforcement, etc.) of US$0.11/pkm. It generates public revenues of US$0.03/pkm from taxes, fees, fines, etc. (AAA, 2024; Burnham et al., 2021; Gössling et al., 2019). This means that its net cost to the passenger is US$0.32/pkm. Cars also have externality costs, such as the cost of health care due to road injuries or air pollution (Litman, 2024). We do not factor these externalities into our cost analysis.

Nonmotorized transportation (costs weighted by mode share) has private costs of US$0.08/pkm and public costs US$0.04/pkm. It produces no revenues to the user. It has a net cost of US$0.12/pkm and saves US$0.21/pkm compared with car travel. This equals a savings of US$1,771/t CO₂‑eq (Table 2).

Pedestrian travel has private costs of US$0.09/pkm (mostly for shoes) and public costs of US$0.1/pkm (for sidewalks, staircases, bridges, etc.). It produces no new revenues. It has a net cost of US$0.10/pkm and saves US$0.23/pkm compared to car travel (Gössling et al., 2019; Litman, 2024). 

Private bicycles have private costs of US$0.06/pkm (for the cost of the bicycle itself, as well as repairs, clothing, etc.) and public costs of US$0.002/pkm (for bike lanes and other infrastructure). They produce no new revenues. They have net costs of US$0.07/pkm and save US$0.26/pkm compared to car travel (Gössling et al., 2019; Litman, 2024). These costs are cheaper than those of pedestrian travel on a per-pkm basis because, while a bicycle costs more than a pair of shoes, it can also travel much farther.

Shared bicycle systems have different cost structures. They can be very expensive (US$9.00/km in London), free (Buenos Aires) and very inexpensive (less than US$0.00 in Tehran) based on what operators charge users. Rides are usually priced by time rather than distance (DeMaio, 2009). Calculations were made as to distance covered by time to arrive at a price per km (CityTransit Data, 2025; Fishman & Schepers, 2016; Pro Cycling Coaching, 2025). Assuming that this roughly covered operating costs, it means that these systems cost US$0.22/pkm more than car travel.

An important consideration for each of these is that we must divide the cost of a bicycle, car, pair of shoes, or piece of infrastructure (road, bike lane, sidewalk) by the pkm of travel it supports over its lifespan. This means that nonmotorized transportation, which is cheaper but slower than cars, can have less of a cost advantage per pkm than might seem intuitive, and is part of the reason why cycling is cheaper per pkm than pedestrian travel. In addition, all of these estimates are based on very limited data and research and should be treated as approximate. Lastly, per-pkm infrastructural costs of cycling and pedestrian travel will decrease as cyclists and pedestrians use the infrastructure more intensively.

Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Nonmotorized transportation
Median -1,771
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Methods and Supporting Data

Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Walking and cycling are mature technologies, so the concept of a learning rate is not applicable.

There is also limited opportunity for cost reductions in cycling or pedestrian infrastructure built using construction techniques very similar to those used in the road industry. However, while learning effects might not do much to reduce the costs of nonmotorized transportation infrastructure, they could do a great deal to improve its effectiveness. Safe cycling infrastructure, in particular, has improved considerably over the past few decades. This could continue into the future as best practices are further improved.

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Improve Nonmotorized Transportation is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

Increases to the modal share of nonmotorized transportation only have the benefits discussed here if they replace travel by car. Replacing public transit travel with travel using nonmotorized transportation will have a much smaller climate benefit. The climate benefit of nonmotorized mobility will also diminish if the average emissions of the global car fleet shrink, for example, due to the wider adoption of electric vehicles. 

There are also uncertainties around trip length. A small number of long trips taken by car will not be replaceable by nonmotorized transportation. Replacing the average trip by car with cycling or pedestrian travel will, in many cases, require that trip to be shortened (for example, by placing businesses closer to people’s homes). If this is not possible, increased adoption of nonmotorized transportation will apply to only some trips, reducing the impact on both emissions and costs.

Weather and climate pose significant challenges and risks for nonmotorized transportation. Extreme heat or cold, wind, rain, or storms can make people reluctant to travel without the protection of a vehicle and, in some cases, can make doing so unsafe (Gössling et al., 2023). This will reduce the adoption of nonmotorized transportation in some places, although it can be mitigated through measures such as providing information and subsidies for proper clothing, removing or grooming snow on bicycle paths, and providing indoor/covered paths that allow pedestrians to travel through a city without exposure to the elements.

Current Adoption

Analysts most frequently report adoption of nonmotorized transportation as a percentage modal share of all trips taken in a city. Cities around the world have radically different modal shares of bicycle and pedestrian trips. Cities in LMICs often have a high nonmotorized modal share because many people cannot afford cars. Cities in high-income countries are often difficult to navigate without a car, resulting in low modal shares for nonmotorized transportation (Prieto-Curiel & Ospina, 2024). 

Prieto-Curiel and Ospina (2024) estimated that northern North America (the United States and Canada) had the lowest modal share of nonmotorized transportation, at 3.5%. Western Europe reached 29% modal share, while Western and Eastern Africa reached 42.9% and 46%, respectively.

Converting these numbers into vehicle-kilometers traveled on a national level for various countries requires assumptions. A population-weighted average of data available from the United States and several Western European countries finds that people take approximately three 13.2 km trips per day, totaling 39.7 km of daily travel with considerable variation between countries (Christensen & Vázquez, 2013; Department for Transport, 2024; Federal Highway Administration, 2022; Statistics Netherlands, 2024). For example, English people in 2022 traveled an average of 25.5 km/day, while Americans in 2020 traveled 53.5 km/day. The value we use in our analysis comes from a population-weighted average that excludes data from 2020 and 2021 to exclude data skewed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Because the United States has by far the highest population of the countries for which we found data, it skews the average much higher than many of the European countries. World data (ITF, 2021) reports that nonmotorized transportation is 14.4% of all urban pkm.

We assumed that in urban environments, each trip taken by nonmotorized transportation corresponds to one fewer car trip of this average length. This implies that nonmotorized transportation currently shifts approximately 5.6 trillion pkm from cars (Table 3). However, it should be noted that this figure includes low-income countries, where some residents have less access to private vehicles.

Table 3. Current (2024) adoption level.

Unit: million pkm/yr*

25th percentile 826,600
Mean 5,556,000
Median (50th percentile) 3,723,000
75th percentile 9,652,000

*These data are extrapolated from a range of individual city estimates from 2010 to 2020 (Prieto-Curiel and Ospina, 2024) and world data (ITF, 2021).

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Adoption Trend

In all cities for which appropriate data exist, nonmotorized transportation showed a growth rate of 0.45% of all passenger trips per year (Prieto-Curiel & Ospina, 2024). This amounts to 49 billion pkm (Table 4) according to our estimation procedure outlined above. In some cities, adoption has grown much more quickly. For example, Hanover, Germany, achieved an average growth of 7.8%/yr in 2011–2017, which amounts to approximately 593 million additional pkm traveled by bicycle every year during that time. However, the rate of adoption is extremely variable. The 25th percentile of estimates shows a global decline in nonmotorized transportation to the tune of 135 billion fewer pkm shifted to nonmotorized modes every year.

Adoption rates of nonmotorized transportation vary widely within a country and between different years within the same city (Prieto-Curiel & Ospina, 2024).

Many people, particularly in LMICs, walk or cycle because they have limited access to a vehicle. When countries become wealthier, travel often shifts from nonmotorized transportation to cars (Seum et al., 2020). If transportation policy in these countries prioritizes car-free mobility, high levels of nonmotorized transportation adoption could potentially be preserved even as living standards increase.

Table 4. 2023–2024 adoption trend.

Unit: million pkm/yr

25th percentile -134,700
Mean 29,570
Median (50th percentile) 49,400
75th percentile 296,900
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Adoption Ceiling

We estimated that 20.2% of all trips in cities worldwide, or approximately 5.6 trillion pkm/yr, are traveled by nonmotorized transportation, while 66.2%, or approximately 18.2 trillion pkm/yr, are traveled by fossil fuel–powered car. This suggests that switching all urban trips currently taken by car to nonmotorized transportation would lead to a nonmotorized modal share of 86.4% in cities globally, or 19.7 trillion pkm/yr (Table 5).

This calculation uses the same assumptions discussed under Current Adoption above. In this case, however, our assumption that every nonmotorized trip is shifted from a car trip of the same length requires further justification. We are not assuming that very long car trips, trips on highways, etc., are replaced directly by bicycle or pedestrian trips. Instead, we assume that shorter nonmotorized trips can substitute for longer car trips with appropriate investment in better urban planning and infrastructure. So, for example, a 10 km drive to a large grocery store could be replaced by a 1 km walk to a neighborhood grocery store. 

This would require replanning many cities so they better accommodate shorter trips. It would also require improving options for people with disabilities or those carrying heavy loads. And it would face climatic and topographic constraints. Furthermore, it is unlikely that all car traffic would ever be substituted by any single alternative mode. Other sustainable modes, particularly public transit, are likely to play a role.

It is also possible for rural trips to be undertaken by nonmotorized transportation. Indeed, this is already very common in low-and middle-income countries. However, rural data are sparse, and discerning how many trips could be shifted to nonmotorized travel in these areas is highly speculative. Therefore, we omit rural areas from our analysis.

Table 5. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Median (50th percentile) 19,690,000
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Achievable Adoption

To estimate the upper bound of feasible adoption, we assumed that urban trips taken by fossil fuel–powered cars can be shifted to nonmotorized transportation until the latter accounts for 65% of trips (the current highest modal share of nonmotorized transportation in any city with a population of more than one million) or until car travel decreases to 7% of trips (the current lowest modal share of fossil fuel–powered cars in any city with a population of more than one million). This corresponds to a total achievable nonmotorized transportation modal share of 16.3 trillion pkm/yr (Table 6).

To set the lower bound, we do the same calculation as above, but for each individual region, adding up all the resultant modal shifts to get a global figure. So, for example, every East Asian city might reach the nonmotorized transportation modal share of Singapore (23% of trips), while every northern European city might reach that of Copenhagen, Denmark (41% of trips). This corresponds to a total achievable nonmotorized transportation modal share of 12.4 trillion pkm/yr.

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: million pkm/yr

Current adoption 5,556,000
Achievable – low 12,369,000
Achievable – high 16,340,000
Potential adoption 19,690,000
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If all cycling and pedestrian trips undertaken today would otherwise have happened by car, they are currently displacing approximately 0.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr emissions (Table 7). This is an overestimate, however, since this figure includes data from places where most people have low access to cars.

Walking and private bicycles have a different effectiveness than shared bicycles. To calculate the climate impacts of different levels of adoption, we applied the effectiveness in the share of each mode of nonmotorized transportation. Walking and private bicycling are 94.4% of nonmotorized pkm and shared bicycling is 5.3%. This gives nonmotorized transportation effectiveness at reducing emissions 115.6 t CO₂‑eq /million pkm.

On the lower end, if every city achieved a pedestrian and cycling modal share equivalent to the least-motorized city in its region, it would save 1.4 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. On the higher end, if every city shifted enough passenger car traffic to achieve a car modal share as low as Hong Kong, China, it would save 1.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. If all trips taken by car were shifted onto nonmotorized transportation (an unrealistic scenario), it would save 2.3 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr.

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.642
Achievable – low 1.430
Achievable – high 1.889
Adoption ceiling 2.276
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Additional Benefits

Health and Air Quality

Air pollution kills approximately 7 million people yearly (Roser, 2024). By reducing vehicle emissions, nonmotorized transportation can alleviate related air pollution (Mailloux et al., 2021) and thereby reduce premature deaths. For example, cutting U.S. transportation emissions by 75% by 2030 could prevent 14,000 premature deaths annually due to decreased exposure to PM2.5 and ozone (Shindell et al., 2016). 

Nonmotorized transportation has other health and safety benefits (Blondiau et al., 2016; European Commission, 2019; Glazener & Khreis, 2019; Gössling et al., 2023; Mueller et al., 2015; State of Colorado, 2016; Xia et al., 2013). Switching from driving to walking or cycling boosts health by promoting physical activity and decreasing risks of cardiovascular issues, diabetes, and mental disorders (Mailloux et al., 2021).

Noise pollution from motorized vehicles has significant impacts on cardiovascular health, mental health, and sleep disturbances, contributing to 1.6 million lost healthy life years in 2004 and up to 1,100 deaths attributable to hypertension in Europe in 2024 (Staatsen et al., 2004; Munzel et al., 2024). Enhancing nonmotorized transportation can reduce the health impacts of traffic noise (de Nazelle et al., 2011).

Finally, nonmotorized transportation improves quality of life. It increases opportunities for human connection, integrates physical activity and fun into daily commutes, and increases the autonomy of less mobile groups such as children and elders. Cities with high modal shares for nonmotorized transportation generally have high quality of life (Adamos et al., 2020; Günther & Krems, 2022; Glazener and Khreis, 2019).

The use of nonmotorized transportation can reduce car crashes, which kill around 1.2 million people annually (WHO, 2023).

Income and Work

Nonmotorized transportation infrastructure tends to be good for local businesses. Cyclists and pedestrians are more likely to stop at businesses they pass and therefore spend more money locally, creating more jobs (Volker & Handy, 2021). 

Nature Protection

In 2011, roads and associated infrastructure accounted for 10–30% of land in residential areas and 50–70% of land in commercial areas (Litman, 2011). Transforming these lands into green spaces could provide additional habitats and reduce biodiversity loss while increasing the protection of land, soil, and water resources (European Commission, 2019).

Risks

Some literature suggested that nonmotorized transportation can lead to gentrification because bike lanes and pleasant walkable streets can increase property values, driving people who used to live in a neighborhood into other places that might still be car-dependent (Flanagan et al., 2016). This risk can be addressed by ensuring that nonmotorized transportation infrastructure is built in an equitable way, connecting different neighborhoods regardless of their social and economic status. Increasing the number of neighborhoods accessible without a car will mean that people do not have to pay a premium to live in those neighborhoods. This will avoid making accessibility without a car a privilege that only the wealthy can afford.

Cycling in a city with lots of traffic and poor cycling infrastructure puts cyclists at risk of injury from collisions with cars. This risk, however, comes mainly from the presence of cars on roads. Reducing the number of cars on the road by shifting trips to other modes can improve safety for cyclists and pedestrians (Bopp et al., 2018).

The positive impacts that nonmotorized transportation have on traffic congestion could be self-defeating if not managed well. This is because less congestion will make driving more appealing, which can, in turn, lead to additional induced demand, increasing car use and congestion (Hymel et al., 2010).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Nonmotorized transportation can help passengers access public transit systems, train stations, and carpool pickup points. This is important because research suggests that the key to a low-carbon mobility system is to reduce the need for people to own cars (Van Acker & Witlox, 2010).

Electric bicycles use the same infrastructure as nonmotorized transportation – especially conventional bicycles. Building bike lanes, bike paths, mixed-use paths, and similar infrastructure for cyclists and pedestrians can also help with the uptake of electric bicycles. This is even more true for shared electric bicycles, which can and often do use the same sharing systems as shared conventional bicycles.

One way to encourage the adoption of electric cars is through electric car–sharing services, in which people can access a communal electric car when they need it. This has the additional benefit of reducing the need for car ownership, which is closely correlated with car use (Van Acker and Witlox, 2010). Good nonmotorized transportation infrastructure can make it easier for users of these services to access shared vehicles parked at central locations.

Competing

Electric cars, hybrid cars, electric scooters and motorcycles, and nonmotorized transportation compete for the same pool of total pkm. Increased use of nonmotorized transportation could reduce kilometers traveled using electric and hybrid cars and electric scooters and motorcycles.

Consensus

Consensus of effectiveness in decarbonizing the transportation sector: High

The large reductions in emissions that come from shifting passenger transportation from fossil fuel-powered cars to nonmotorized modes are not controversial. There is some disagreement, however, over how many pkm traveled by car can be realistically shifted to nonmotorized transportation.

Brand et al. (2021) compared the GHG emissions of active transportation with those of cars. They concluded that “locking in, investing in and promoting active travel should be a cornerstone of sustainability strategies, policies and planning.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023) sixth assessment report mentioned nonmotorized transportation as a solution in its transportation chapter. The authors expressed high confidence in the potential of these transportation modes to reduce emissions and recommended policy and infrastructural measures to support them.

Litman’s (2024) study of the costs and benefits of active transportation summarized the direct financial costs as well as externalities associated with pedestrian and bicycle travel compared with travel by fossil fuel–powered car. Litman noted that “active transport can provide relatively large energy savings if it substitutes for short urban trips that have high emission rates per mile due to cold starts (engines are inefficient during the first few minutes of operation) and congestion. As a result, each 1% shift from automobile to active travel typically reduces fuel consumption 2–4%.”

This research is, unfortunately, heavily biased toward richer countries, especially in Europe and North America, even though nonmotorized transportation plays a very important role in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The research on this topic is also biased toward cities, even though nonmotorized transportation can be a valuable means of mobility in rural areas. 

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 19 reviews and meta-analyses and 14 original studies reflecting current evidence from 84 countries, primarily the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Dashboard

Solution Basics

million passenger kilometers (million pkm)

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit
099.33115.6median
units/yr
Current 5.556×10⁶ 01.236×10⁷1.634×10⁷
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.642 1.431.889
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-1,771
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

Production of equipment (such as bicycles) and infrastructure (such as sidewalks) creates some emissions, but these are small when divided by the total distance traveled by pedestrians and cyclists. On a per-pkm basis, this makes little difference in the emissions saved by nonmotorized transportation. 

% population
0–20
20–40
40–60
60–80
> 80

Percentage of city population living near protected bikeways, 2023

Proximity to related infrastructure, such as protected bikeways, facilitates the safe and convenient use of nonmotorized modes of transportation.

Reich, D. T. & Braga, K. (2024). Atlas of Sustainable City Transport [Data set]. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. Retrieved June 2, 2025 from atlas.itdp.org

% population
0–20
20–40
40–60
60–80
> 80

Percentage of city population living near protected bikeways, 2023

Proximity to related infrastructure, such as protected bikeways, facilitates the safe and convenient use of nonmotorized modes of transportation.

Reich, D. T. & Braga, K. (2024). Atlas of Sustainable City Transport [Data set]. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. Retrieved June 2, 2025 from atlas.itdp.org

Maps Introduction

Nonmotorized transportation effectiveness is high across all geographic regions, though the built environment, safety, and socio-cultural norms heavily shape its adoption and impact. Key determinants of effectiveness include the extent of safe and connected infrastructure (e.g., sidewalks, bike lanes, protected intersections), land-use patterns supporting short trips, and public policies prioritizing nonmotorized transportation.

Overall, effectiveness depends on adoption. In many cities across Europe and Asia, walking and cycling remain integral to daily travel. Cities like Amsterdam, Copenhagen, and Tokyo have successfully integrated nonmotorized modes into their broader transport systems through dedicated infrastructure and supportive urban design. In contrast, cities in North America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Latin America often lack safe, accessible infrastructure, which limits adoption.

Socioeconomic factors, including income levels, urban design, and perceptions of status, also influence the adoption of nonmotorized transport. In wealthier regions, cycling may be viewed as a lifestyle choice or an environmental statement, whereas in lower-income settings, it may be perceived as a necessity or even a sign of economic disadvantage, influencing user behavior and policy support (Seum et al., 2020).

Although shared bicycles have a lower effectiveness than walking or private bicycles, they are much more effective than cars. Increasing the number of shared bicycle systems in any geographic area can increase adoption and, therefore, make them more effective. This is particularly effective in lower-income areas where owning a private bicycle might be cost-prohibitive (Litman, 2024). Increasing shared systems in less urban and more suburban areas can be more effective, as they often replace trips made by car (Brand et al., 2021).

Nonmotorized modes are generally resilient and functional in a wide range of climates. Extreme weather conditions, including high heat, heavy rainfall, or snow, can reduce walking and cycling, although these can be mitigated through appropriate infrastructure (e.g., shaded or covered walkways, snow clearing, bike shelters).

Action Word
Improve
Solution Title
Nonmotorized Transportation
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Reduce the associated time, distance, risk, and risk perception of nonmotorized transportation.
  • Improve infrastructure such as sidewalks, footpaths, and bike lanes.
  • Implement traffic-calming methods such as speed bumps.
  • Increase residential and commercial density.
  • Use a citizen-centered approach when designing infrastructure.
  • Enact infrastructure standards for nonmotorized transportation, such as curb ramp designs, and train contractors to implement them.
  • Establish public bike-sharing programs.
  • Create dedicated coordinating bodies across government agencies, businesses, and the public to develop nonmotorized infrastructure.
  • Disincentivize car ownership through reduced access, increases in parking fares, taxes, or other means. 

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Share your experiences, tips, and reasons for choosing your modes of transportation.
  • Participate in local bike groups, public events, and volunteer opportunities.
  • Advocate to local officials for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations for improvements.
  • Encourage local businesses to create employee incentives.
  • Create “bike buses” or “walking buses” for the community and local schools.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Ensure your business is accessible via nonmotorized transportation.
  • Advocate for better infrastructure for nonmotorized transportation.
  • Educate customers about the local infrastructure.
  • Partner with other businesses to encourage employees to cycle or walk.
  • Encourage employees to walk or cycle to and from work as their circumstances allow.
  • Create educational materials for employees on commuting best practices.
  • Offer employees pre-tax commuter benefits to include reimbursement for nonmotorized travel expenses.
  • Organize staff bike rides to increase familiarity and comfort with bicycling.
  • Install adequate bike storage, such as locking posts.
  • Emphasize walking and biking as part of company-wide sustainability initiatives and communicate how walking and biking support broader GHG emission reduction efforts.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Ensure your office is accessible to nonmotorized transportation.
  • Advocate for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations where improvements can be made.
  • Encourage local businesses to create employee incentives.
  • Create “bike buses” or “walking buses” for the community and/or local schools.
  • Offer free classes on subjects such as bike maintenance, local bike routes, or what to know before purchasing a bike.
  • Host or support community participation in local infrastructure design.
  • Join public-private partnerships to encourage biking and walking, emphasizing the health and savings benefits.

Further information:

Investors
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Deploy capital to efforts that improve bicycle and walking comfort, convenience, access, and safety.
  • Invest in public or private bike-sharing systems.
  • Invest in local supply chains for bicycles and other forms of nonmotorized transportation.
  • Seek investment opportunities that reduce material and maintenance costs for bicycles.
  • Finance bicycle purchases via low-interest loans.
  • Consider investments in nonmotorized transportation start-ups.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Award grants to local organizations advocating for improved walking and bicycle infrastructure.
  • Build capacity for walking and bicycle infrastructure design and construction.
  • Support organizations that distribute, refurbish, and/or donate bikes in your community.
  • Facilitate access to bicycle maintenance and supplies.
  • Host or support community education or participation efforts.
  • Donate fixtures such as street lights, guardrails, and road signs.
  • Educate the public and policymakers on the benefits and best practices of nonmotorized transportation.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Focus messages on key decision factors for nonmotorized commuters, such as the associated health benefits and importance of fitness, climate and environmental benefits, weather forecasts, and traffic information.
  • Highlight principles of safe urban design and point out dangerous areas.
  • Share information on local bike and walking routes, general bike maintenance tips, items to consider when purchasing a bike, and related educational information.
  • Collaborate with schools on bicycle instruction, including safe riding habits and maintenance.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Examine and improve elements of infrastructure design.
  • Improve circularity, repairability, and ease of disassembly for bikes.
  • Increase the physical carrying capacities (storage) for walkers and bicyclists to facilitate shopping and transporting children, pets, and materials.
  • Identify and encourage the deployment of messaging that enhances nonmotorized transportation use.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Use nonmotorized transportation.
  • Share your experiences, tips, and reasons for choosing nonmotorized transportation.
  • Participate in local bike groups, public events, and volunteer opportunities.
  • Advocate to local officials for infrastructure improvements and note specific locations where improvements can be made.
  • Encourage local businesses to create employee incentives for using nonmotorized transportation.
  • Create “bike buses” or “walking buses” for the community and local schools.

Further information:

“Take Action” Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in decarbonizing the transport sector: High

The large reductions in emissions that come from shifting passenger transportation from fossil fuel-powered cars to nonmotorized modes are not controversial. There is some disagreement, however, over how many pkm traveled by car can be realistically shifted to nonmotorized transportation.

Brand et al. (2021) compared the GHG emissions of active transportation with those of cars. They concluded that “locking in, investing in and promoting active travel should be a cornerstone of sustainability strategies, policies and planning.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023) sixth assessment report mentioned nonmotorized transportation as a solution in its transportation chapter. The authors expressed high confidence in the potential of these transportation modes to reduce emissions and recommended policy and infrastructural measures to support them.

Litman’s (2024) study of the costs and benefits of active transportation summarized the direct financial costs as well as externalities associated with pedestrian and bicycle travel compared with travel by fossil fuel–powered car. Litman noted that “active transport can provide relatively large energy savings if it substitutes for short urban trips that have high emission rates per mile due to cold starts (engines are inefficient during the first few minutes of operation) and congestion. As a result, each 1% shift from automobile to active travel typically reduces fuel consumption 2–4%.”

This research is, unfortunately, heavily biased toward richer countries, especially in Europe and North America, even though nonmotorized transportation plays a very important role in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The research on this topic is also biased toward cities, even though nonmotorized transportation can be a valuable means of mobility in rural areas. 

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 19 reviews and meta-analyses and 14 original studies reflecting current evidence from 84 countries, primarily the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

Updated Date
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