Reduce Grazing Intensity
Ocean biomass sinking involves sinking terrestrial plant material and/or seaweed in the deep sea, where the carbon it has converted into biomass can be stored. Using terrestrial material diverts biomass that might otherwise break down on land and release CO₂, while using seaweed removes carbon by cultivating and sinking new biomass produced in the ocean. This practice might be able to remove over 0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, but estimates remain highly uncertain due to limited data, and the adoption levels needed to reach this threshold are probably impractical. Advantages include the use of terrestrial biomass that might otherwise degrade on land and emit CO₂, and the ability to reduce nutrient pollution in some ocean areas when cultivating marine biomass. Disadvantages include its unclear effectiveness and durability, potentially high environmental risks, limited feasibility to operate at scale (particularly for seaweed biomass), and complex monitoring and verification. We conclude that Deploy Ocean Biomass Sinking is “Not Recommended” as a climate solution.
Our analysis finds that Deploy Ocean Biomass Sinking could have high potential environmental risks, including unknown impacts on marine ecosystems. It is also unclear how effective or durable carbon storage in the deep sea is from this approach. There are likely better alternative uses for terrestrial biomass, and cultivating seaweed at climate-relevant scales is probably not feasible. Even if it were, seaweed would probably provide greater value through other applications. Therefore, Deploy Ocean Biomass Sinking is currently “Not Recommended” as a climate solution.
| Plausible | Could it work? | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ready | Is it ready? | No |
| Evidence | Are there data to evaluate it? | Limited |
| Effective | Does it consistently work? | No |
| Impact | Is it big enough to matter? | No |
| Risk | Is it risky or harmful? | Yes |
| Cost | Is it cheap? | ? |
Ocean biomass sinking relies on sinking terrestrial plant material and/or seaweed grown in the ocean to the deep sea or seafloor where it can be stored long-term. Cultivating and sinking seaweed removes carbon from the surface ocean, whereas sinking terrestrial biomass material can help reduce emissions that might otherwise occur if the material instead decomposed on land. While not a current practice, terrestrial biomass grown explicitly for sinking would also constitute a form of carbon removal. When biomass sinks naturally, most of it is degraded into CO₂ or other forms of carbon before reaching the deep sea. Deliberate sinking of biomass might avoid some of this degradation by expediting its delivery to the deep sea, depending on the method used. Once sunk, the biomass and any CO₂ or other forms of carbon produced from its degradation can be isolated from the atmosphere for decades to centuries due to the ocean’s slow circulation times at depth. Biomass sinking can be accomplished using active methods, like submersibles, or passive methods, like letting weighted bundles sink on their own. There has been a recent focus on sinking material in low-oxygen ocean basins (e.g., the Black Sea), which might help further minimize degradation, while improving the durability of sequestered carbon due to the long circulation time-scales typical of these regions.
Global estimates suggest that ~11% of carbon produced in natural seaweed ecosystems might be sequestered at depth, generally defined as below the mixed layer at around 1,000 m. However, very few studies have documented the export efficiency, or the fraction of carbon in surface waters that makes its way to the deep sea, of purposefully sunk terrestrial and seaweed biomass, as this practice is currently in the early stages of development and research. If biomass is quickly sunk, most carbon might make its way to the deep sea, while passive sinking techniques, if slower, could result in higher degradation rates. Sequestration also depends on the storage efficiency and durability of carbon once at depth. Some initial research suggests that biomass degradation may be slowed in low-oxygen basins, but this also remains poorly characterized in field studies. It is similarly unclear how durable the carbon stored below the mixed layer will be over climate-relevant timescales, both in the deep sea in general and in low-oxygen basins specifically.
The advantages of ocean biomass sinking include its potential ability to use land-based biomass that might otherwise be degraded in landfills or incinerated, both of which lead to CO₂ emissions. In some regions, seaweed cultivation could help reduce nutrient pollution, provide habitat for marine organisms, and locally buffer against ocean acidification. Estimates of potential climate impacts suggest that ocean biomass sinking using biomass from seaweed farms could theoretically exceed 0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. Still, those estimates remain highly speculative and require more research. Costs are poorly quantified, but some estimates suggest they could be low to moderately expensive compared to other marine carbon dioxide removal approaches, close to US$100/t CO₂.
Ocean biomass sinking has many environmental and social risks that, though not currently fully understood, could make it unfeasible to deploy the technology at scale. Deep-sea and seafloor ecosystems are highly understudied, and it's unclear how new biomass might alter these unique environments. Potential impacts include increased acidification, nutrient pollution, and oxygen depletion of the deep sea, which could affect diverse marine life. Large-scale seaweed cultivation could reduce phytoplankton abundance, disrupt food webs, and deplete nutrients needed by other ecosystems. Cultivation in open ocean areas might relieve demand for coastal space, but they are often nutrient-poor, and adding nutrients raises serious concerns (see Deploy Ocean Fertilization). Terrestrial biomass sources could introduce contaminants into the ocean due to inadvertent inclusion of plastics or other pollutants in sunken biomass. This practice also comes with social risks. Some countries might disproportionately bear negative impacts wherever biomass is cultivated and/or sunk, as it could alter marine food webs and livelihoods. There could also be issues with public perception due to historical injustices around ocean dumping, potentially impeding future projects without meaningful community engagement and transparency.
Moreover, there are numerous technical challenges relating to the effectiveness and durability of carbon sequestration. Biomass sources differ in how easily they break down, affecting how much carbon is stored at depth. Sunk biomass could also potentially release other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide. The location where biomass is disposed of also matters, impacting how much carbon reaches and stays at depth. However, all of these factors remain poorly constrained. Operational and technical challenges are also significant. To remove at least 0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr
using marine biomass, nearly 7 million ha of ocean – over 60% of the global coastline – could be needed for seaweed cultivation, which is impractical. Measurement and verification pose additional hurdles. In the case of seaweed cultivation, tracking carbon removal requires monitoring both CO₂
uptake at the ocean’s surface and export as well as storage at depth across large spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the opportunity cost of sinking terrestrial biomass is high due to competing land-based uses, as waste biomass and crop residues are finite resources. Growing new biomass explicitly for ocean sinking would introduce new risks, given that land is also a finite resource. Similarly, seaweed probably has higher value and carbon benefits as food, fertilizer, and other products.
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Seaweed ecosystem protection is the long-term protection from degradation of wild subtidal brown and red seaweed ecosystems. Seaweeds, also called macroalgae, are photosynthetic marine organisms that absorb CO₂ from the water and convert it into biomass. This can lower surface-water CO₂ concentrations, allowing additional CO₂ from the atmosphere to be dissolved in the ocean. Some of the fixed carbon can be sequestered through export to the deep sea or burial in the seafloor, while a portion may persist in forms that resist degradation even at the ocean surface.
Protecting seaweed ecosystems can reduce a range of human impacts (wild harvesting, coastal development, overgrazing, and poor water quality) and improve resilience to other stressors (warming), which helps preserve carbon removal by the seaweed and avoid CO₂ emissions from biomass losses.
This solution focuses on legal mechanisms of protection through the establishment of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), which are managed with the primary goal of conserving nature. This solution does not include cultivated seaweed (see Deploy Seaweed Farming for Food).
Seaweeds are diverse marine photosynthetic organisms composed of three groups: brown (Phaeophyceae), green (Chlorophyta), and red algae (Rhodophyta). They can form ecosystems, such as kelp forests, and contribute to other marine ecosystems by providing habitat and food. Seaweeds are distinguished from other algae, such as phytoplankton, based on their larger size and because most are attached to substrate rather than free-floating. Seaweeds cover an estimated 600 Mha of the ocean (Duarte et al., 2022), an area that is an order of magnitude greater than the area associated with coastal wetlands (~55 Mha, see Protect Coastal Wetlands).
This solution focuses on wild subtidal (always submerged) brown and red seaweed ecosystems, which together account for over 75% of global seaweed extent (Duarte et al., 2022) (Figure 1). We do not include green seaweeds due to their smaller extent and data limitations. We also do not include seaweeds that occur in intertidal zones, as free-floating colonies (e.g., some species of Sargassum) or are cultivated due to data limitations or coverage in other Explorer solutions (e.g., Deploy Seaweed Farming for Food).
Seaweed ecosystems exhibit high net primary productivity (NPP) rates, comparable to those of terrestrial forests (Filbee-Dexter, 2020). Unlike many terrestrial ecosystems, however, nearly all carbon storage in seaweed ecosystems occurs as above-ground biomass, since seaweeds lack below-ground roots. A smaller amount can be buried on site in sediment (Krause-Jensen & Duarte, 2016). Most long-term carbon storage attributable to seaweeds occurs largely outside of seaweed ecosystems, through the export of carbon in dissolved and suspended forms (Figure 2). Some of this carbon reaches the deep sea, where it can persist for more than 100 years (Krause-Jensen & Duarte, 2016; Krause-Jensen et al., 2018; Ortega et al., 2019). Roughly 11.4% (25th quartile, 6.0%; 75th quartile, 13.7%) of NPP from global seaweed ecosystems is estimated to contribute to long-term carbon storage in the deep sea, equivalent to as much as 0.62 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (173 Tg C/yr, Krause-Jensen & Duarte, 2016). While uncertain and requiring more research, recent modeling efforts support these estimates, suggesting that more than 12.5% of NPP may be removed on 100-yr timescales (Filbee-Dexter et al., 2024b).
Figure 2. Overview of a seaweed ecosystem showing carbon fluxes into and out of the ecosystem (g=gaseous, aq=aqueous) that can result in carbon removal. Some carbon is exported to the shallow sea, where it may be recycled or persist for longer periods depending on its form, some is exported to the deep sea (~1000 m), and some is buried in seafloor sediments.
Adapted from: Hurd, C. L., Gattuso, J.-P., & Boyd, P. W. (2024). Air-sea carbon dioxide equilibrium: Will it be possible to use seaweeds for carbon removal offsets? Journal of Phycology, 60(1), 4–14.
Seaweed ecosystems face growing threats from a range of climate change impacts (Harley et al., 2012), such as increasing sea surface temperatures, marine heat waves, ocean acidification, and extreme storm events, as well as local drivers, such as overfishing, overgrazing, pollution, disease outbreaks, invasive species, and bottom fishing (Corrigan et al., 2025; Filbee-Dexter et al., 2024a; Hanley et al., 2024). For instance, overfishing can deplete top predators in ecosystems, leading to increases in herbivores, such as sea urchins, that overgraze seaweed (Steneck et al., 2002).
In this solution, we calculate how legal protection of seaweed ecosystems via MPAs can reduce CO₂
emissions and preserve carbon removal through avoided ecosystem loss. In addition to preventing direct losses from impacts such as wild harvest, MPAs can help restore predator populations that keep herbivores in balance. For instance, many MPAs include no-take zones that allow predatory fish populations to recover, thereby lessening overgrazing impacts over time. MPAs can also increase the resilience of seaweed ecosystems against climate change stressors, such as marine heat waves (Kumagai et al., 2024; Ortiz-Villa et al., 2025). While some seaweed can release methane, offsetting CO₂
removal (Roth et al., 2023), we exclude this process from our analysis due to existing data limitations. We also do not consider nitrous oxide, though protection might provide additional climate benefits because enhanced nitrous oxide production has been tied to nutrient-polluted seaweed systems (Wong et al., 2021).
We present estimates of climate impact as likely upper bounds under several key assumptions (see Appendix and Caveats), which can be improved upon as more research unfolds. We consider subtidal brown and red seaweed to be protected if they are within designated MPAs based on global datasets from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (2024). Importantly, protection can help reduce – but will not eliminate – ecosystem loss in MPAs relative to unprotected areas (see Effectiveness).
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Christina Richardson, Ph.D.
Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.
Avery Driscoll, Ph.D.
James Gerber, Ph.D.
Daniel Jasper
Alex Sweeney
Aiyana Bodi
Avery Driscoll, Ph.D.
Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
Paul C. West, Ph.D.
The globally weighted average effectiveness of seaweed ecosystem protection is 0.32 tCO₂‑eq
/ha/yr. Protecting 1 ha of seaweed ecosystem avoids emissions of 0.043–0.13 tCO₂‑eq
/ha/yr while also sequestering an additional 0.083–0.43 tCO₂‑eq
/ha/yr, with effectiveness higher in subtidal brown than subtidal red seaweed ecosystems (100-yr GWP; Table 1; Appendix).
We estimated effectiveness as the avoided emissions and retained carbon sequestration capacity attributable to the reduction in seaweed ecosystem loss conferred by protection, as detailed in Equation 1. First, we calculated the difference between the rate of seaweed ecosystem loss outside and inside MPAs (Seaweed lossbaseline). We assumed a reduction in loss of 53% (Reduction in loss), which is based on estimates for a range of ecosystems in MPAs (Rodríguez-Rodríguez & Martínez-Vega, 2022). Importantly, this number is highly uncertain and likely to be highly variable, too.
Next, we multiplied this product by the sum of the avoided CO₂
emissions associated with the one-time loss of all above ground biomass carbon in 1 ha of seaweed ecosystem each year over 30 years (Carbonavoided emissions) and the amount of carbon sequestered via long-term storage (on-site or off-site) in 1 ha of protected seaweed ecosystem each year over 30 years (Carbonsequestration).
We based these rates on original analysis of a subset of studies conducted over, at least, 20 years, collated from Krumhansl et al. (2016), that show a median loss rate of 1.2% per year for kelp forests. Due to data limitations, we applied this loss rate to subtidal red seaweed ecosystems as well, but recognize that loss rates are likely to be highly variable. We did this calculation separately for red and brown seaweed ecosystems due to their distinct biomass densities and sequestration capacities, and then averaged the results with accommodations for their relative global areas.
Equation 1.
Table 1. Effectiveness of seaweed ecosystem protection in avoiding emissions and sequestering carbon.
Unit: tCO₂‑eq /ha/yr, 100-year basis
| Avoided emissions, estimate | 0.13 |
| Sequestration | 0.43 |
| Total effectiveness, estimate | 0.56 |
| Total effectiveness, 25th percentile | 0.21 |
| Total effectiveness, 75th percentile | 0.91 |
Unit: tCO₂‑eq /ha/yr, 100-year basis
| Avoided emissions, estimate | 0.043 |
| Sequestration | 0.083 |
| Total effectiveness, estimate | 0.13 |
| Total effectiveness, 25th percentile | 0.034 |
| Total effectiveness, 75th percentile | 0.22 |
Unit: tCO₂‑eq /ha/yr, 100-year basis
| Avoided emissions, estimate | 0.080 |
| Sequestration | 0.24 |
| Total effectiveness, estimate | 0.32 |
| Total effectiveness, 25th percentile | 0.11 |
| Total effectiveness, 75th percentile | 0.52 |
We estimate that seaweed ecosystem protection might save approximately US$72/tCO₂‑eq , but emphasize that these estimates are highly uncertain due to existing data limitations. This is based on protection costs of roughly US$14/ha/yr and revenue of US$43/ha/yr compared with the baseline (Table 2). The costs of seaweed ecosystem protection also include up-front one-time expenditures of US$208 (surveys, administrative setup, legal fees, etc.), estimated from McCrea-Strub et al. (2011). However, data related to the costs of seaweed ecosystem protection are limited, and these estimates are uncertain. For consistency across solutions, we did not include revenue associated with other ecosystem services.
We estimated costs of MPA maintenance at US$14/ha/yr based on data from existing MPAs, though only 16% of MPAs surveyed reported their current funding was sufficient (Balmford et al., 2004). Maintenance is critical for seaweed ecosystems, especially those prone to overgrazing. Tourism revenues directly attributable to protection were estimated to be $43/ha/yr (Waldron et al., 2020) based on estimates for all MPAs (and PAs) and not including downstream revenues. However, estimates of tourism revenues are highly uncertain for seaweed ecosystems. In some seaweed ecosystems, such as kelp forests, tourism is likely a real revenue generator through diving or other recreational activities, but the financial contribution is generally unclear and poorly documented across all seaweed ecosystems.
Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact. Negative values indicate cost savings.
Unit: 2023 US$/tCO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis
| Estimate | -72 |
A learning curve is defined here as falling costs with increased adoption. The costs of seaweed ecosystem protection do not fall with increasing adoption, so there is no learning curve for this solution.
Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.
At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.
Protect Seaweed Ecosystems is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It has the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than gradual and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.
Additionality is an important caveat for ecosystem protection. In our analysis, we used baseline rates of seaweed ecosystem loss to calculate the effectiveness of protection, which are highly uncertain and understudied. This assumes that seaweed ecosystems would continue to be lost at these rates in the absence of protection and thus that protection provides additional carbon benefits from the ecosystems whose loss is avoided.
Importantly, effective protection depends on adequate funding and management. Poorly managed MPAs can fail to prevent key stressors, such as urchin overgrazing, from increasing and undermine the viability of seaweed ecosystems. Similar dynamics have been documented in kelp restoration efforts, where inadequate management has led to overgrazing and project failure (Eger et al., 2022).
The permanence of ecosystem carbon benefits is another key caveat. While seaweed ecosystems are expanding or expected to expand with climate change, in some regions many will contract (Corrigan et al., 2025). Protection may increase resilience to some climate change stressors, but it will not fully prevent ecosystem loss in many regions. Additionally, because seaweed ecosystems sequester carbon both on-site and off-site, the effectiveness of protection partly depends on downstream activities. For instance, carbon at the seafloor is threatened by disturbances such as bottom fishing and mining (see Protect Seafloors). Protection of seaweed ecosystems does not prevent loss of downstream stored carbon, some of which is contributed by seaweed ecosystems (Ortega et al., 2019). Additionally, seaweed biomass extent can change dramatically from year to year, which could result in substantial variability in carbon removal rates despite protection.
Another caveat in this solution lies in our assumptions about carbon dynamics at the ocean surface. We assume that seaweed NPP results in an equivalent removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere. In reality, this influx may not be fully efficient (Hurd et al., 2024). In some regions of the ocean, water carrying a CO₂ deficit from seaweed photosynthesis might be subducted before it reaches equilibrium with the atmosphere, which would reduce the atmospheric removal attributed to seaweed productivity in our calculations.
In our analysis, avoided emissions are calculated under the assumption that destruction of a seaweed ecosystem results in the loss of all biomass carbon This likely overestimates near-term emissions, as some carbon may remain in the ocean for long periods. However, this fraction is expected to be small given that an estimated 6.0–13.7% (average: 11.4%) of NPP is thought to be stored long term (Krause-Jensen & Duarte, 2016).
Finally, the relative fraction of NPP removed and durably stored (>100 years) is also uncertain (Pessarrodona et al., 2023). Despite this uncertainty, our use of 11.4% is supported by recent modeling of particulate carbon fluxes that suggest ~12.5% of NPP could be sequestered on a 100-year timescale (based on 44 Tg C of particulate organic carbon export to 1,000 m, where carbon is less likely to return to the atmosphere within a century, and ~353 Tg C as NPP; Filbee-Dexter et al., 2024b), but requires more research.
A total of 78.80 Mha of seaweed ecosystems are currently within MPAs (Table 3). Cumulatively, roughly 18% of seaweed ecosystems are under some form of protection, with 4% located in strictly protected MPAs, 6% in nonstrict MPAs, and 8% in other IUCN protection categories. Subtidal brown and red seaweed ecosystems have similar rates of existing protection in all protection categories (Figure 3).
Table 3. Current (circa 2024) extent of seaweed ecosystems under legal protection. “Strict protection” includes land within IUCN categories I–II Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). “Nonstrict protection” includes land within IUCN Categories III–VI MPAs. “Other” includes land within all remaining IUCN MPA categories. Values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.
Unit: Mha protected
| Strict protection | 8.43 |
| Nonstrict protection | 11.4 |
| Other | 15.5 |
| Total | 35.3 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Strict protection | 9.28 |
| Nonstrict protection | 16.3 |
| Other | 18.0 |
| Total | 43.5 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Strict protection | 17.7 |
| Nonstrict protection | 27.6 |
| Other | 33.4 |
| Total | 78.8 |
We calculated the rate of MPA expansion in seaweed ecosystems based on recorded year of establishment (UNEP-WCMC & IUCN, 2024). Protection expanded by a median of 0.74 Mha/yr in subtidal brown seaweed ecosystems and 0.97 Mha/yr in subtidal red seaweed ecosystems (Table 4; Figure 3a). The global average rate of expansion was roughly 2.13 Mha/yr, with a median of 1.71 Mha/yr. The adoption trend for subtidal brown and red seaweed was relatively similar, with both expanding 0.46–0.55%/yr, on average (median of 0.39–0.40%/yr) (Figure 3b).
Table 4. 2000–2024 adoption trend. Global totals reflect independent statistics, not sums of subtidal brown and red values.
Unit: Mha/yr
| 25th percentile | 0.40 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 0.74 |
| Mean | 1.01 |
| 75th percentile | 1.31 |
Unit: Mha/yr
| 25th percentile | 0.62 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 0.97 |
| Mean | 1.12 |
| 75th percentile | 1.45 |
Unit: Mha/yr
| 25th percentile | 1.02 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 1.71 |
| Mean | 2.13 |
| 75th percentile | 2.76 |
Figure 3. Trend in seaweed ecosystem protection (2000–2024) in terms of (A) total hectares protected and (B) the percent of the current adoption ceiling that is currently protected. These values reflect only the area located within Marine Protected Areas. Units: million hectares protected and percent protected relative to the adoption ceiling.
We estimated that approximately 430 Mha of wild seaweed ecosystems are available for protection (Table 5). Subtidal red seaweeds compose ~240 Mha, with subtidal brown seaweeds occupying the remaining ~190 Mha. These adoption areas do not include other types of seaweed habitats/ecosystems, such as those found in the intertidal zone, rhodolith beds, Halimeda bioherms, coral reefs, and pelagic, free-floating seaweed, which could account for an additional ~150 Mha (Duarte et al., 2022). These adoption areas are highly uncertain due to data limitations and are also likely to shift with climate change.
Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for the adoption of legal protection of seaweed ecosystems.
Unit: Mha
| Estimate | 189.6 |
Unit: Mha
| Estimate | 243.0 |
Unit: Mha
| Estimate | 432.6 |
We defined the lower end of the achievable range for seaweed ecosystem protection (across all IUCN categories) as 50% of the adoption ceiling and the upper end of the achievable range as 70% of the adoption ceiling (Table 6). These adoption levels are ambitious relative to existing levels of protection (~18%), but align with targets to protect 30% of ecosystems by 2030 (Eger et al., 2024) and serve as an optimistic benchmark for the 30-year time horizon considered in our analysis. Several countries already protect more than 30% of subtidal brown seaweed ecosystems, such as kelp forests (Kelp Forest Alliance, 2024). For example, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, and France protect over 41%, 68%, 68%, and 47% of their kelp beds, respectively.
Table 6: Range of achievable adoption levels for seaweed ecosystems.
Unit: Mha
| Current adoption | 78.8 |
| Achievable – low | 216.3 |
| Achievable – high | 302.9 |
| Adoption ceiling | 432.6 |
We estimated that MPAs currently avoid emissions of 0.03 GtCO₂‑eq/yr in seaweed ecosystems, with potential impacts of 0.14 GtCO₂‑eq/yr at the adoption ceiling (Table 7). Achievable levels of seaweed ecosystem protection could safeguard 0.07 to 0.10 GtCO₂‑eq/yr by reducing emissions from biomass loss and retaining sequestration fluxes (Table 7). However, these estimates are highly uncertain and will benefit from more research (see Caveats).
Limited data exist on the potential climate impacts of seaweed ecosystem protection for comparison. However, a rough estimate of the benefits of conservation, restoration, and afforestation interventions of seaweeds suggests carbon benefits of at least 0.04 GtCO₂‑eq/yr (Pessarrodona et al., 2023). Other estimates suggest that total carbon sequestration in seaweed ecosystems could be on the order of 0.22–0.98 GtCO₂‑eq/yr (Krause-Jensen & Duarte, 2016). This is higher than our estimates because we account only for the carbon benefits of protection in seaweed ecosystems at risk of loss.
Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption. Values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.02 |
| Achievable – low | 0.05 |
| Achievable – high | 0.07 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.11 |
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.01 |
| Achievable – low | 0.02 |
| Achievable – high | 0.02 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.03 |
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.03 |
| Achievable – low | 0.07 |
| Achievable – high | 0.10 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.14 |
Seaweeds can provide coastal resilience to the impacts of storms by lowering wave heights before they reach shorelines (Corrigan et al., 2025; Cotas et al., 2023). The magnitude of this benefit can vary based on the species and location of seaweed, and some evidence suggests that severe storms can harm seaweed habitats (Earp et al., 2024). Evidence suggests that kelp forests can attenuate wave heights locally, especially in the summer at peak kelp growth, but protection varies at larger spatial scales (Elsmore et al., 2024; Lindhart et al., 2024). Emerging research has found that protected seaweed ecosystems show more resilience to marine heat waves than unprotected areas (Kumagai et al., 2024). During heat waves, protected ecosystems maintain a habitat for species such as sea urchins that consume species that might degrade kelp ecosystems (Bauer et al., 2025; Kumagai et al., 2024).
Seaweeds support species that are important for tourism and fishing (Cuba et al., 2022; Eger et al., 2023). Many species that are supported by seaweeds have high economic value for fishing, such as crabs, lobsters, and abalones (Corrigan et al., 2025). For example, Eger et al. (2023) estimated that 1 ha of kelp forest where about 900 kg of fish biomass is harvested could yield about US$29,900 a year. The same study estimated that the global value of kelp forests that support fisheries is about US$465–562 billion (Eger et al., 2023). Seaweed habitats can also be tourist destinations for snorkeling and diving (UNEP, 2023), providing income-earning opportunities for nearby communities.
The contribution of seaweeds to fisheries production can play a role in global food security (Cottier-Cook et al., 2023; Eger et al., 2023). Additionally, seaweeds are an essential part of many diets, especially in East Asia (FAO, 2024). Because seaweeds are a culturally important food in many geographies, protecting seaweeds can play an important role in equitably improving global food security (FAO, 2024).
For some cultures, seaweeds and their habitats shape shared identities and livelihoods (Cotas et al., 2023). For example, seaweeds are a source of traditional foods, medicines, art, and knowledge for many coastal communities and Indigenous peoples (Thurstan et al., 2018). Protecting seaweeds can preserve the cultural identities, practices, and knowledge of Indigenous communities that are often vulnerable (Corrigan et al., 2025).
Seaweeds support biodiversity by providing habitat for a variety of marine species (Best et al., 2014; Cuba et al., 2022; Gibbons & Quijón, 2023; Tano et al., 2016). Literature reviews of the ecosystem services of seaweeds find that they contribute to increases in biodiversity (Gibbons & Quijón, 2023). Seaweeds can provide habitat and refuge from large predators (Best et al., 2014; Gibbons & Quijón, 2023). Invertebrates, detritivores, and other small species found in seaweed forests are essential food sources for other marine species (Cuba et al., 2022; Tano et al., 2016).
Seaweeds improve water quality by supporting nutrient cycling and reducing pollutants (Cotas et al., 2023; Heckwolf et al., 2021). Evidence suggests that seaweeds can reduce eutrophication by filtering excess nutrients from the water (Corrigan et al., 2025; Gao et al., 2022; Heckwolf et al., 2021).
Leakage, in which protecting one ecosystem results in the degradation of another, could offset the climate impact of seaweed ecosystem protection. For instance, restricting wild harvesting through the establishment of an MPA could shift pressure to other unprotected areas. Another key risk is weakly enforced or poorly managed MPAs. This is a real concern with existing MPAs due to a lack of funding, and can result in low protection effectiveness. Finally, climate change stressors, such as ocean warming and marine heat waves, are a major risk to permanence because they could lead to widespread mortality, even in protected areas.
Intact and healthy seaweed ecosystems can enhance fish stocks, biodiversity, and habitat quality, which benefits all connected coastal and marine ecosystems.
Protecting seaweed ecosystems can help ensure the underlying areas of the seafloor remain intact.
Protection of seaweed ecosystems could potentially reduce the adoption of offshore wind in some regions.
ha of seaweed ecosystem protected
CO₂
Seaweed ecosystems can release methane, which could reduce the climate benefits of protection estimated in this solution. While data are scarce, a recent study suggests that methane emissions could offset 28–35% of the carbon sink capacity in some seaweed ecosystems (Roth et al., 2023) if they escape to the atmosphere, which may be unlikely if methane production occurs at depth in sediments (Pessarrodona et al., 2023).
Consensus of effectiveness at reducing emissions and maintaining carbon removal: Mixed
There is mixed scientific consensus that protection prevents the degradation of seaweed ecosystems, but high consensus that degradation leads to losses in biomass carbon stocks and sequestration capacity. Seaweed ecosystems can be degraded by diverse stressors that directly or indirectly affect biomass stocks. Management actions, such as establishment of MPAs, can help prevent both direct and indirect habitat loss and thereby maintain the carbon removal capacity of seaweed ecosystems with relatively high certainty against stressors such as wild harvesting, coastal development, overgrazing, and poor water quality (Pessarrodona et al., 2023). However, some stressors, such as marine heat waves and ocean warming, are less effectively addressed by protection alone (Filbee-Dexter et al., 2024a). Benefits are still expected in some systems because MPAs can enhance resilience and recovery by reducing co-occurring stressors common that contribute to seaweed ecosystem degradation (Krumhansl et al., 2016; Ortiz-Villa et al., 2025). Moreover, MPAs, even when established in areas with addressable stressors, are typically not fully effective. Here, we applied a protection effectiveness of 53%, based on aggregated estimates from MPAs beyond seaweed ecosystems (Rodríguez-Rodríguez & Martínez-Vega, 2022). If the effectiveness of protection is lower (higher), climate impacts could likewise be lower (higher).
There is high scientific consensus that degradation of seaweed ecosystems leads to losses in biomass carbon stocks and sequestration capacity. While direct estimates of CO₂ emissions from biomass are limited, degradation has been shown to remove biomass carbon and reduce sequestration. For instance, drivers of habitat loss and degradation, such as overharvesting (González-Roca et al., 2021; Steen et al., 2016), overgrazing (Akaike & Mizuta, 2024), and poor water quality (Filbee-Dexter & Wernberg, 2020), reduce standing biomass and therefore associated carbon export from seaweed ecosystems (Pessarrodona et al., 2023).
The carbon sink capacity of seaweed ecosystems, such as kelp forests, is also expected to decline with climate change stressors such as warming, which can increase rates of decomposition by 9–42% (Filbee-Dexter et al., 2022) and drive habitat loss, both of which reduce the likelihood that carbon makes its way to the deep sea for long-term storage. Off the coast of Australia, over 140,000 ha of subtidal brown seaweed forests have already been lost to warming over two decades, representing a decline of 2–4% of regional seaweed biomass carbon stocks and sequestration capacity (Filbee-Dexter & Wernberg, 2020).
The results presented in this assessment synthesize findings from 5 global datasets. We recognize that geographic bias in the information underlying global data products creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions and on understudied aspects of these ecosystems.
This analysis quantifies emissions that can be avoided by protecting seaweed ecosystems via the establishment of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). We leveraged two global seaweed distribution maps alongside a shapefile of MPAs, available data on rates of avoided ecosystem loss attributable to MPA establishment, and global data on biomass carbon stores and carbon sequestration rates to calculate climate impacts. This appendix describes the source data products and how they were integrated.
Seaweed Ecosystem Extent
We relied on the global maps of seaweed extent developed by Duarte et al. (2022), which classify subtidal brown and red seaweeds (among others). We used the “LT2 Brown Algae Benthic” raster to calculate subtidal brown seaweed extent and the “LT2 Red Algae Benthic” raster to calculate subtidal red seaweed extent. We did not consider red seaweed in subtidal brown-dominant environments, such as kelp forests, due to existing limitations with the global maps.
Protected Seaweed Ecosystem Areas
We identified protected seaweed ecosystem areas using the World Database on Protected Areas (UNEP-WCMC & IUCN, 2024), which contains boundaries for each MPA and additional information, including the establishment year and IUCN management category (Ia to VI, not applicable, not reported, or not assigned). In this analysis, we considered all categories. While some MPA categories likely allow for wild harvest, which can be unsustainably conducted, wild seaweed harvest is currently estimated at 1.3 Mt/yr (wet weight) (FAO, 2024), which represents a relatively small portion of the global loss rate used (<0.2%/yr). We converted the MPA boundary data to a raster and used them to calculate the seaweed area within MPA boundaries for each seaweed type analyzed (subtidal brown and red) and each MPA category. To evaluate trends in adoption over time, we also aggregated protected areas by establishment year as reported in the WDPA.
Calculation of Effectiveness
The following equations show a detailed breakdown of the stepwise set of calculations used to implement Equation 1, including estimation of avoided seaweed loss and of emissions and retained sequestration across the 30-year time horizon considered.
Avoided Seaweed Ecosystem Conversion
We compiled baseline estimates of seaweed ecosystem loss (%/yr) from existing literature and used them in conjunction with an estimate of reductions in loss associated with protection of 53% (derived from Rodríguez-Rodríguez & Martínez-Vega, 2022) to calculate the rate of avoidable macroalgae loss (Seaweed lossavoided). Seaweed ecosystem loss rates were based on the original analysis of data aggregated from Krumhansl et al. (2016) for studies over 20 years long (Seaweed lossbaseline; median loss rate of 1.2%/yr).
Equation A1.
We then used the avoidable seaweed loss rates to calculate avoided CO₂ emissions and additional carbon sequestration for each adoption unit. Specifically, we estimated the carbon benefits of avoided seaweed ecosystem loss by multiplying avoided seaweed ecosystem loss by avoided CO₂ emissions (Equation A2) and by applying carbon sequestration rates over 30 years (Equation A3) for each seaweed type.
We estimated avoided CO₂ emissions by assuming a one-time release of all aboveground biomass carbon upon loss. We derived our estimates of retained carbon sequestration from global databases on NPP for each seaweed type from Duarte et al. (2022) and a global estimate of NPP-derived sequestration (11.4%) from NPP based on Krause-Jensen and Duarte (2016).
Equation A2.
Equation A3.
We then estimated effectiveness (Equation A4) as the avoided CO₂ emissions and retained carbon sequestration capacity attributable to the reduction in seaweed ecosystem loss conferred by protection estimated in Equations A1–3.
Equation A4.
Protect Seafloors is the long-term protection of the seafloor from degradation, which helps preserve existing sediment carbon stocks and avoid CO₂ emissions. Advantages of seafloor protection include the conservation of biodiversity and marine ecosystems, potentially low costs, and the ability for immediate implementation. Disadvantages include uncertainties in the effectiveness of legal protection at preventing degradation and in the amount of CO₂ emissions avoided, as well as the risk of displacement of degradation to non-protected areas and/or an increase in other types of degradation. Given these limitations, we conclude that Seafloor Protection is a climate solution to “Keep Watching” until more research can clearly show the carbon benefits of protection.
Based on our analysis, seafloor protection could avoid some CO₂ emissions while preserving critical marine ecosystems from degradation. However, the effectiveness of protection and the magnitude of avoided CO₂ emissions associated with protection are understudied and currently unclear. Therefore, we will “Keep Watching” this potential climate solution.
| Plausible | Could it work? | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ready | Is it ready? | No |
| Evidence | Are there data to evaluate it? | Limited |
| Effective | Does it consistently work? | No |
| Impact | Is it big enough to matter? | Yes |
| Risk | Is it risky or harmful? | No |
| Cost | Is it cheap? | Yes |
Protect Seafloors aims to reduce human impacts that can degrade sediment carbon stocks and increase CO₂ emissions. Protection is conferred through legal mechanisms, such as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), which are managed with the primary goal of conserving nature. The seafloor stores over 2,300 Gt of carbon (roughly 8,400 Gt CO₂‑eq) in the top one meter of sediment. This marine carbon can be stable and remain sequestered for millennia. However, degradation of the seafloor from a range of human activities can disturb bottom sediments, resuspending the carbon and increasing its microbial conversion into CO₂. Currently, degradation of the seafloor primarily results from fishing practices, such as trawling and dredging, which are estimated to occur across 1.3% of the global ocean. Additional sources of degradation include undersea mining, infrastructure development (for offshore wind farms, oil, and gas), and laying telecommunications cables. Estimates of seafloor degradation are highly uncertain due to data limitations and the unpredictable nature of how these activities may expand in the future.
More evidence is needed to confirm whether legal seafloor protection is effective at reducing degradation and the extent to which degradation results in increased CO₂ emissions. While ~8% of the seafloor is currently protected through MPAs, there is mixed evidence that legal protection reduces degradation and CO₂ emissions. For instance, in a review of 49 studies examining the impacts of bottom trawling and dredging on sediment organic carbon stocks, most (61%) showed no change, while nearly a third (29%) showed carbon loss. More recent work suggests that trawling intensity might drive these mixed results, with more heavily trawled areas showing clear reductions in sediment organic carbon. Additionally, the few existing global estimates of CO₂ emissions from trawling and dredging range from 0.03 to 0.58 Gt CO₂/yr, highlighting the need for further research. The effectiveness of MPAs at preventing seafloor degradation is also mixed. In strictly protected areas with enforcement of no-take policies that prevent bottom fishing, MPAs could help minimize degradation and retain seafloor carbon. However, implementation can be challenging, as over half of existing MPAs generally allow high-impact activities. For instance, trawling and dredging occur more frequently in MPAs than in non-protected areas in the territorial waters of Europe.
Advantages of seafloor protection include its potential low cost and its ability to conserve often understudied biodiversity and ecosystems. Human activities, such as trawling and dredging, impact marine organisms on the seafloor, and ecosystem recovery can take years to occur. In the case of undersea mining, ecosystems may never fully recover. Increases in CO₂ emissions along the seafloor from degradation can also enhance local acidification and reduce the ocean's buffering capacity, both of which can affect marine organisms and the carbon sequestration capacity of seawater. Protection can also increase fisheries yields in neighboring waters and reduce other negative impacts of seafloor disturbances. While costs are somewhat uncertain, MPA expenses have been estimated to be an order of magnitude less than the often unseen ecosystem service benefits gained with protection, suggesting MPA expansion could provide cost savings.
Disadvantages of seafloor protection include uncertainties surrounding the effectiveness of preventing degradation and avoiding CO₂ emissions, as well as the potential increased risk of disturbance to other ocean areas. The amount and fate of CO₂ generated due to the degradation of seafloor carbon is complex and understudied. It can take months or even centuries for CO₂ produced at depth to reach the sea surface and atmosphere. Current estimates of CO₂ emissions due to dredging and trawling are widely debated and highly variable due to differing methods and assumptions. Large amounts of organic carbon will inevitably re-settle after seafloor disturbances, with no impact on CO₂, but estimates of just how much remain uncertain. The risk of protection-induced leakage, where a reduction in disturbances, such as trawling and dredging in MPAs, leads to increased fishing effort in other ocean areas, is also potentially high.
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The Protect Peatlands solution is defined as legally protecting peatland ecosystems through establishment of protected areas (PAs), which preserves stored carbon and ensures continued carbon sequestration by reducing degradation of the natural hydrology, soils, and/or vegetation. This solution focuses on non-coastal peatlands that have not yet been drained or otherwise severely degraded. Reducing emissions from degraded peatlands is addressed in the Restore Peatlands solution, and mangroves located on peat soils are addressed in the Protect Coastal Wetlands solution.
Peatlands are diverse ecosystems characterized by waterlogged, carbon-rich peat soils consisting of partially decomposed dead plant material (Figure 1). They are degraded or destroyed through clearing of vegetation and drainage for agriculture, forestry, peat extraction, or other development. An estimated 600 Gt carbon (~2,200 Gt CO₂‑eq ) is stored in peatlands, twice as much as the carbon stock in all forest biomass (Yu et al., 2010; Pan et al., 2024). Because decomposition occurs very slowly under waterlogged conditions, large amounts of plant material have accumulated in a partially decomposed state over millennia. These carbon-rich ecosystems occupy only 3–4% of land area (Xu et al., 2018b; United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP], 2022). Their protection is both feasible due to their small area and highly impactful due to their carbon density.
Figure 1. These photos show the diversity of peatlands that occur in different places, including a fen peatland and meadow complex in California (top left), a peat swamp in Indonesia (top right), a peat fen and forest in Canada (bottom left), and a peat bog in New Hampshire (bottom right).
Photo credits: Catie and Jim Bishop | U.S. Department of Agriculture; Rhett A. Butler; Garth Lenz; Linnea Hanson | U.S. Department of Agriculture
When peatlands are drained or disturbed, the rate of carbon loss increases sharply as the accumulated organic matter begins decomposing (Figure 2). Removal of overlying vegetation produces additional GHG emissions while also slowing or stopping carbon uptake. Whereas emissions from vegetation removal occur rapidly following disturbance, peat decomposition and associated emissions can continue for centuries depending on environmental conditions and peat thickness. Peat decomposition after disturbance occurs faster in warmer climates because cold temperatures slow microbial activity. In this analysis, we evaluated tropical, subtropical, temperate, and boreal regions separately.
Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in intact peatlands (left) and a drained peatland (right). Intact peatlands are a net greenhouse gas sink, sequestering carbon in peat through photosynthesis but also emitting methane due to waterlogged soils. Drained peatlands are a greenhouse gas source, producing emissions from peat decomposition and drainage canals. Modified from IUCN UK Peatland Programme (2024).
Source: IUCN UK Peatland Programme. (2024, July 10). New briefing addresses the peatlands and methane debate.
In addition to peat decomposition, biomass removal, and lost carbon sequestration, peatland disturbance impacts methane and nitrous oxide emissions and carbon loss through waterways (Figure 2; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2014; UNEP, 2022). Intact peatlands are a methane source because of methane-producing microbes, which thrive under waterlogged conditions. However, carbon uptake typically outweighs methane emissions. Leifield et al. (2019) found that intact peatlands are a net carbon sink of 0.77 ± 0.15 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr in temperate and boreal regions and 1.65 ± 0.51 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr in tropical regions after accounting for methane emissions. Peatland drainage reduces methane emissions from the peatland itself, but the drainage ditches can become potent methane sources (Evans et al., 2015; Peacock et al., 2021). Dissolved and particulate organic carbon also run off through drainage ditches, increasing CO₂ emissions in waterways from microbial activity and abiotic processes. Finally, rates of nitrous oxide emissions increase following drainage as the nitrogen stored in the peat becomes available to microbes.
Patterns of ongoing peatland drainage are poorly understood at the global scale, but rates of ecosystem disturbance are generally lower in PAs and on Indigenous peoples’ lands than outside of them (Li et al., 2024b; Wolf et al., 2021; Sze et al., 2021). The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) defines six levels of PAs that vary in their allowed uses, ranging from strict wilderness preserves to sustainable use areas that allow for some extraction of natural resources. All PA levels were included in this analysis (UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Center [UNEP-WCMC] and IUCN, 2024). Due to compounding uncertainties in the distributions of peatlands and Indigenous peoples’ lands, which have not yet been comprehensively mapped, and unknown rates of peatland degradation within Indigenous people’s lands, peatlands within Indigenous peoples’ lands were excluded from the tables but are discussed in the text (Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024).
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Avery Driscoll
Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.
James Gerber, Ph.D.
Daniel Jasper
Alex Sweeney
Aiyana Bodi
Hannah Henkin
Megan Matthews, Ph.D.
Ted Otte
Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
Paul C. West, Ph.D.
We estimated that protecting a ha of peatland avoids 0.92–13.47 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr, with substantially higher emissions reductions in subtropical and tropical regions and lower emissions reductions in boreal regions (100-yr GWP; Table 1a–d; Appendix).
We estimated effectiveness as the avoided emissions attributable to the reduction in peatland loss conferred by protection (Equation 1). First, we calculated the biome-specific difference between the annual rate of peatland loss outside PAs (Peatland lossbaseline) versus inside PAs (Peatland lossprotected) (Appendix; Conchedda & Tubellio, 2020; Davidson et al., 2014; Miettinen et al., 2011; Miettinen et al., 2016; Uda et al., 2017, Wolf et al., 2021). We then multiplied the avoided peatland loss by the total emissions from one ha of drained peatland over 30 years. This is the sum of the total biomass carbon stock (Carbonbiomass), which degrades relatively quickly; 30 years of annual emissions from peat itself (Carbonflux); and 30 years of lost carbon sequestration potential, reflecting the carbon that would have been taken up by one ha of intact peatland in the absence of degradation (Carbonuptake) (IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2014; UNEP, 2022). The carbon flux includes CO₂‑eq emissions from: 1) peat oxidation, 2) dissolved organic carbon loss through drainage, 3) the net change in on-field methane between undrained and drained states, 4) methane emissions from drainage ditches, and 5) on-field nitrous oxide emissions.
Equation 1.
Without rewetting, peat loss typically persists beyond 30 years and can continue for centuries (Leifield & Menichetti, 2018). Thus, this is a conservative estimate of peatland protection effectiveness that captures near-term impacts, aligns with the 30-yr cost amortization time frame, and is roughly consistent with commonly used 2050 targets. Using a longer time frame produces larger estimates of emissions from degraded peatlands and therefore higher effectiveness of peatland protection.
The effectiveness of peatland protection as defined here reflects only a small percentage of the carbon stored in peatlands because we account for the likelihood that the peatland would be destroyed without protection. Peatland protection is particularly impactful for peatlands at high risk of drainage.
Table 1. Effectiveness of peatland protection at avoiding emissions and sequestering carbon. Regional differences in values are driven by variation in emissions factors and baseline rates of peatland drainage.
Unit: t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis/ha of peatland protected/yr
| Estimate | 0.92 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis/ha of peatland protected/yr
| Estimate | 4.42 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis/ha of peatland protected/yr
| Estimate | 13.47 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis/ha of peatland protected/yr
| Estimate | 13.23 |
We estimated that the net cost of peatland protection is approximately US$1.5/ha/yr, or $0.25/t CO₂‑eq avoided (Table 2). Data related to the costs of peatland protection are very limited. These estimates reflect global averages rather than regionally specific values, and rarely include data specific to peatlands. The costs of peatland protection include up-front costs of land acquisition and ongoing costs of management and enforcement. The market price of land reflects the opportunity cost of not using the land for other purposes, such as agriculture, forestry, peat extraction, or urban development. Protecting peatlands can also generate revenue through increased tourism. Costs and revenues are highly variable across regions, depending on the costs of land and enforcement and potential for tourism.
Dienerstein et al. (2024) estimated the initial cost of establishing a protected area for 60 high-biodiversity ecoregions. Amongst the 33 regions that were likely to contain peatlands, the median acquisition cost was US$957/ha, which we amortized over 30 years. Costs of protected area maintenance were estimated at US$9–17/ha/yr (Bruner et al., 2004; Waldron et al., 2020), though these estimates were not specific to peatlands. Additionally, these estimates reflect the costs of effective enforcement and management, but many existing protected areas lack adequate funds for effective enforcement (Adams et al., 2019; Barnes et al., 2018; Burner et al., 2004). Waldron et al. (2020) estimated that, across all ecosystems, tourism revenues directly attributable to protected area establishment were US$43/ha/yr, not including downstream revenues from industries that benefit from increased tourism. Inclusion of a tourism multiplier would substantially increase the estimated economic benefits of peatland protection.
Table 2. Cost per unit climate impact for peatland protection.
Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis
| Median | 0.25 |
A learning curve is defined here as falling costs with increased adoption. The costs of peatland protection do not fall with increasing adoption, so there is no learning curve for this solution.
Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.
At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as gradual, emergency brake, or delayed.
Protect Peatlands is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It has the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than gradual and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.
Permanence, or the durability of stored carbon, is a caveat for emissions avoidance through peatland protection that is not addressed in this analysis. Protected peatlands could be drained if legal protections are reversed or inadequately enforced, resulting in the loss of stored carbon. Additionally, fires on peatlands have become more frequent due to climate change (Turetsky et al., 2015; Loisel et al., 2021), and can produce very large emissions pulses (Konecny et al., 2016; Nelson et al., 2021). In boreal regions, permafrost thaw can trigger large, sustained carbon losses from previously frozen peat (Hugelius et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2017). In tropical regions, climate change-induced changes in precipitation can lower water tables in intact peatlands, increasing risks of peat loss and reducing sequestration potential (Deshmukh et al., 2021).
Additionality, or the degree to which emissions reductions are above and beyond a baseline, is another important caveat for emissions avoidance through ecosystem protection (Atkinson & Alibašić, 2023; Fuller et al., 2020; Williams et al., 2023). In this analysis, additionality was addressed by using baseline rates of peatland degradation in calculating effectiveness. Evaluating additionality is challenging and remains an active area of research.
Finally, there are substantial uncertainties in the available data on peatland areas and distributions, peatland loss rates, the drivers of peatland loss, the extent and boundaries of PAs, and the efficacy of PAs at reducing peatland disturbance. Emissions dynamics on both intact and cleared peatlands are also uncertain, particularly under different land management practices and in the context of climate change.
Because peatlands are characterized by their soils rather than by overlying vegetation, they are difficult to map at the global scale (Minasny et al., 2024). Mapping peatlands remains an active area of research, and the adoption values presented here are uncertain. We estimated that 22.6 Mha of peatlands are located within strictly protected PAs (IUCN classes I or II), and 82.3 Mha are within other or unknown PA classes (Table 3a–e; UNEP, 2022; UNEP-WCMC & IUCN, 2024), representing 22% of total global peatland area (482 Mha). Because of data limitations, we did not include Indigenous peoples’ lands in subsequent analyses despite their conservation benefits. There are an additional 186 Mha of peatlands within Indigenous peoples’ lands that are not classified as PAs, with a large majority (155 Mha) located in boreal regions (Table 3; Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP, 2022).
Given the uncertainty in the global extent of peatlands, estimates of peatland protection vary. The Global Peatlands Assessment estimated that 19% (90.7 Mha) of peatlands are protected (UNEP, 2022), with large regional variations ranging from 35% of peatlands protected in Africa to only 10% in Asia. Using a peatland map from Melton et al. (2022), Austin et al. (2025) estimated that 17% of global peatlands are within PAs, and an additional 27% are located in Indigenous peoples’ lands (excluding Indigenous peoples’ lands in Canada covering large peatland areas).
Table 3. Current peatland area under protection by biome (circa 2023). Estimates are provided for two different forms of protection: “strict” protection, including IUCN classes I and II, and “nonstrict” protection, including all other IUCN classes. Regional values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.
Unit: Mha protected
| Area within strict PAs | 12.4 |
| Area within non-strict PAs | 41.7 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Area within strict PAs | 3.0 |
| Area within non-strict PAs | 10.1 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Area within strict PAs | 1.1 |
| Area within non-strict PAs | 1.6 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Area within strict PAs | 6.1 |
| Area within non-strict PAs | 28.9 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Area within strict PAs | 22.6 |
| Area within non-strict PAs | 82.3 |
We calculated the annual rate of new peatland protection based on the year of PA establishment for areas established in 2000–2020. The median annual increase in peatland protection was 0.86 Mha (mean 2.0 Mha; Table 4a–d). This represents a roughly 0.8%/yr increase in peatlands within PAs, or protection of an additional 0.2%/yr of total global peatlands. This suggests that peatland protection is likely occurring at a somewhat slower rate than peatland degradation – which is estimated to be around 0.5% annually at the global scale – though this estimate is highly uncertain and spatially variable (Davidson et al., 2014).
There were large year-to-year differences in how much new peatland area was protected over this period, ranging from only 0.2 Mha in 2016 to 7.9 Mha in 2007. The rate at which peatland protection is increasing has been decreasing, with a median increase of 1.7 Mha/yr between 2000 and 2010 declining to 0.7 Mha/yr during 2010–2020. Recent median adoption of peatland protection by area is highest in boreal (0.5 Mha/yr, Table 4a) and tropical regions (0.2 Mha/yr, Table 4d), followed by temperate regions (0.1 Mha/yr, Table 4b) and subtropical regions (0.01 Mha/yr, Table 4c) (2010–2020). Scaled by total peatland area, however, recent rates of peatland protection are lowest in the subtropics (0.04%/yr), followed by the boreal (0.14%/yr), the tropics (0.16%/yr), and temperate regions (0.19%/yr).
Table 4. Adoption trend for peatland protection in PAs of any IUCN class (2000–2020). The 25th and 75th percentiles reflect only interannual variance.
Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 0.24 |
| Mean | 0.87 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 0.50 |
| 75th percentile | 0.89 |
Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 0.07 |
| Mean | 0.23 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 0.10 |
| 75th percentile | 0.28 |
Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 0.00 |
| Mean | 0.04 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 0.01 |
| 75th percentile | 0.04 |
Unit: Mha of peatland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 0.05 |
| Mean | 0.84 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 0.25 |
| 75th percentile | 0.83 |
We considered the adoption ceiling to include all undrained, non-coastal peatlands and estimated this to be 425 Mha, based on the Global Peatlands Database and Global Peatlands Map (UNEP, 2022; Table 5e; Appendix). We estimated that 284 Mha of undrained peatlands remain in boreal regions (Table 5a), 26 Mha in temperate regions (Table 5b), 12 Mha in the subtropics (Table 5c), and 103 Mha in the tropics (Table 5d). The adoption ceiling represents the technical upper limit to adoption of this solution.
There is substantial uncertainty in the global extent of peatlands, which is not quantified in these adoption ceiling values. Estimates of global peatland extent from recent literature include 404 Mha (Melton et al., 2022), 423 Mha (Xu et al., 2018b), 437 Mha (Müller & Joos, 2021), 463 Mha (Leifield & Menichetti, 2018), and 488 Mha (UNEP, 2022). Several studies suggest that the global peatland area may still be underestimated (Minasny et al., 2024; UNEP, 2022).
Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption of legal protection of peatlands by biome. Values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.
Unit: Mha protected
| Peatland area (Mha) | 284 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Peatland area (Mha) | 26 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Peatland area (Mha) | 12 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Peatland area (Mha) | 103 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Peatland area (Mha) | 425 |
UNEP (2022) places a high priority on protecting a large majority of remaining peatlands for both climate and conservation objectives. We defined the achievable range for peatland protection as 70% (low achievable) to 90% (high achievable) of remaining undrained peatlands. Only ~19% of peatlands are currently under formal protection within PAs (UNEP, 2022; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). However, approximately 60% of undrained peatlands are under some form of protection if peatlands within Indigenous peoples’ lands are considered (Garnett et al., 2018; UNEP, 2022; UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024). While ambitious, this provides support for our selected achievable range of 70–90% (Table 6a-e).
Ensuring effective and durable protection of these peatlands from drainage and degradation, including secure land tenure for Indigenous peoples who steward peatlands and other critical ecosystems, is a critical first step. Research suggests that local community leadership, equitable stakeholder engagement, and cross-scalar governance are needed to achieve conservation goals while also balancing social and economic outcomes through sustainable use (Atkinson & Alibašić, 2023; Cadillo & Bennett, 2024; Girkin et al., 2023; Harrison et al., 2019; Suwarno et al., 2015). Sustainable uses of peatlands include some forms of paludiculture, which can involve peatland plant cultivation, fishing, or gathering without disturbance of the hydrology or peat layer (Tan et al., 2021).
Table 6. Range of achievable adoption of peatland protection by biome.
Unit: Mha protected
| Current adoption | 54 |
| Achievable – low | 199 |
| Achievable – high | 255 |
| Adoption ceiling | 284 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Current adoption | 13 |
| Achievable – low | 18 |
| Achievable – high | 24 |
| Adoption ceiling | 26 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Current adoption | 3 |
| Achievable – low | 9 |
| Achievable – high | 11 |
| Adoption ceiling | 12 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Current adoption | 35 |
| Achievable – low | 72 |
| Achievable – high | 92 |
| Adoption ceiling | 103 |
Unit: Mha protected
| Current adoption | 105 |
| Achievable – low | 297 |
| Achievable – high | 382 |
| Adoption ceiling | 425 |
We estimated that PAs currently reduce emissions from peatland degradation by 0.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 7a-e). Achievable levels of peatland protection have the potential to reduce emissions 1.3–1.7 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, with a technical upper bound of 1.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. The estimate of climate impacts under current adoption does not include the large areas of peatlands protected by Indigenous peoples but not legally recognized as PAs. Inclusion of these areas would increase the current estimated impact of peatland protection to 0.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr.
Other published estimates of additional emissions reductions through peatland protection are somewhat lower, with confidence intervals of 0–1.2 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Griscom et al., 2017; Humpenöder et al., 2020; Loisel et al., 2021; Strack et al., 2022). These studies vary in their underlying methodology and data, including the extent of peatland, the baseline rate of peatland loss, the potential for protected area expansion, which GHGs are considered, the time frame over which emissions are calculated, and whether they account for vegetation carbon loss or just emissions from the peat itself.
Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.
Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis
| Current adoption | 0.05 |
| Achievable – low | 0.18 |
| Achievable – high | 0.24 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.26 |
Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis
| Current adoption | 0.06 |
| Achievable – low | 0.08 |
| Achievable – high | 0.11 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.12 |
Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis
| Current adoption | 0.04 |
| Achievable – low | 0.12 |
| Achievable – high | 0.15 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.17 |
Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis
| Current adoption | 0.46 |
| Achievable – low | 0.95 |
| Achievable – high | 1.22 |
| Adoption ceiling | 1.36 |
Unit: Gt CO₂ ‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis
| Current adoption | 0.61 |
| Achievable – low | 1.33 |
| Achievable – high | 1.71 |
| Adoption ceiling | 1.90 |
Peatland protection can help communities adapt to extreme weather. Because peatlands regulate water flows, they can reduce the risk of droughts and floods (IUCN, 2021; Ritson et al., 2016). Evidence suggests that peatlands can provide a cooling effect to the immediate environment, lowering daytime temperatures and reducing temperature extremes between day and night (Dietrich & Behrendt, 2022; Helbig et al., 2020; Worrall et al., 2022).
When peatlands are drained they are susceptible to fire. Peatland fires can significantly contribute to air pollution because of the way these fires smolder (Uda et al., 2019). Smoke and pollutants, particularly PM2.5, from peatland fires can harm respiratory health and lead to premature mortality (Marlier et al., 2019). A study of peatland fires in Indonesia estimated they contribute to the premature mortality of about 33,100 adults and about 2,900 infants annually (Hein et al., 2022). Researchers have linked exposure to PM2.5 from peatland fires to increased hospitalizations, asthma, and lost workdays (Hein et al., 2022). Peatland protection mitigates exposure to air pollution and can save money from reduced health-care expenditures (Kiely et al., 2021).
Peatlands support the livelihoods of nearby communities, especially those in low- and middle-income countries. In the peatlands of the Amazon and Congo basins, fishing livelihoods depend on aquatic wildlife (Thornton et al., 2020). Peatlands in the Peruvian Amazon provide important goods for trade, such as palm fruit and timber, and are used for hunting by nearby populations (Schulz et al., 2019). Peatlands can also support the livelihoods of women and contribute to gender equality. For example, raw materials – purun – from Indonesian peatlands are used by women to create and sell mats used in significant events such as births, weddings, and burials (Goib et al., 2018).
Peatlands are home to a wide range of species, supporting biodiversity of flora and an abundance of wildlife (UNEP, 2022; Minayeva et al., 2017; Posa et al., 2011). Because of their unique ecosystem, peatlands provide a habitat for many rare and threatened species (Posa et al., 2011). A study of Indonesian peat swamps found that the IUCN Red List classified approximately 45% of mammals and 33% of birds living in these ecosystems as threatened, vulnerable, or endangered (Posa et al., 2011). Peatlands also support a variety of insect species (Spitzer & Danks, 2006). Because of their sensitivity to environmental changes, some peatland insects can act as indicators of peatland health and play a role in conservation efforts (Spitzer & Danks, 2006).
Peatlands can filter water pollutants and improve water quality and are important sources of potable water for some populations (Minayeva et al., 2017). Xu et al. (2018a) estimated that peatlands store about 10% of freshwater globally, not including glacial water. Peatlands are a significant drinking water source for people in the United Kingdom and Ireland, where they provide potable water for about 71.4 million people (Xu et al., 2018a).
Water Quality
See Water Resources section above.
Leakage occurs when peatland drainage and clearing moves outside of protected area boundaries and is a risk of relying on peatland protection as an emissions reduction strategy (Harrison & Paoli, 2012; Strack et al., 2022). If the relocated clearing also occurs on peat soils, emissions from peatland drainage and degradation are relocated but not actually reduced. If disturbance is relocated to mineral soils, however, the disturbance-related emissions will typically be lower. Combining peatland protection with policies to reduce incentives for peatland clearing can help avoid leakage.
Peatland protection must be driven by or conducted in close collaboration with local communities, which often depend on peatlands for their livelihoods and economic advancement (Jalilov et al., 2025; Li et al., 2024a; Suwarno et al., 2016). Failure to include local communities in conservation efforts violates community sovereignty and can exacerbate existing socioeconomic inequities (Felipe Cadillo & Bennet, 2024; Thorburn & Kull, 2015). Effective peatland protection requires development of alternative income opportunities for communities currently dependent on peatland drainage, such as tourism; sustainable peatland use practices like paludiculture; or compensation for ecosystem service provisioning, including carbon storage (Evers et al., 2017; Girkin et al., 2023; Suwarno et al., 2016; Syahza et al., 2020; Tan et al., 2021; Uda et al., 2017).
Protected areas often include multiple ecosystems. Peatland protection will likely lead to protection of other ecosystems within the same areas, and the health of nearby ecosystems is improved by the services provided by intact peatlands.
Restored peatlands need protection to reduce the risk of future disturbance, and the health of protected peatlands can be improved through restoration of adjacent degraded peatlands.
Protecting peatlands could limit land availability for renewable energy technologies and raw material and food production. Protect Peatlands competes with the following solutions for land.
ha protected
CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O
ha protected
CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O
ha protected
CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O
ha protected
CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O
None
There is high scientific consensus that protecting peatland carbon stocks is a critical component of mitigating climate change (Girkin & Davidson, 2024; Harris et al., 2022; Leifield et al., 2019; Noon et al., 2022; Strack et al., 2022). Globally, an estimated 11–12% of peatlands have been drained for uses such as agriculture, forestry, and harvesting of peat for horticulture and fuel, with much more extensive degradation in temperate and tropical regions (~45%) than in boreal regions (~4%) (Fluet-Chouinard et al., 2023; Leifield & Menichetti, 2018; UNEP, 2022). Rates of peatland degradation are highly uncertain, and the effectiveness of PAs at reducing drainage remains unquantified. In lieu of peatland-specific data on the effectiveness of PAs at reducing drainage, we used estimates from Wolf et al. (2021), who found that PAs reduce forest loss by approximately 40.5% at the global average.
Carbon stored in peatlands has been characterized as “irrecoverable carbon” because it takes centuries to millennia to accumulate and could not be rapidly recovered if lost (Goldstein et al., 2020; Noon et al., 2021). Degraded peatlands currently emit an estimated 1.3–1.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (excluding fires), equal to ~2–4% of total global emissions (Leifield and Menichetti., 2018; UNEP, 2022). Leifield et al. (2019) projected that without protection or restoration measures, emissions from drained peatlands could produce enough emissions to consume 10–41% of the remaining emissions budget for keeping warming below 1.5–2.0 °C. Peatland drainage had produced a cumulative 80 Gt CO₂‑eq by 2015, equal to nearly two years worth of total global emissions. In a modeling study, Humpenöder et al. (2020) projected that an additional 10.3 Mha of peatlands would be degraded by 2100 in the absence of new protection efforts, increasing annual emissions from degraded peatlands by ~25% (an additional 0.42 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr in their study).
The results presented in this document synthesize findings from 11 global datasets, supplemented by four regional studies on peatland loss rates in Southeast Asia. We recognize that geographic bias in the information underlying global data products creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.
This analysis quantifies the emissions associated with peatland degradation and their potential reduction via establishment of Protected Areas (PAs). We leveraged multiple data products, including national-scale peatland area estimates, a peatland distribution map, shapefiles of PAs and Indigenous peoples’ lands, available data on rates of peatland degradation by driver, country-scale data on reductions in ecosystem degradation inside of PAs, maps of biomass carbon stocks, and biome-level emissions factors from disturbed peat soils. This appendix describes the source data products and how they were integrated.
The global extent and distribution of peatlands is highly uncertain, and all existing peatland maps have limitations. Importantly, there is no globally accepted definition of a peatland, and different countries and data products use variable thresholds for peat depth and carbon content to define peatlands. The Global Peatland Assessment was a recent comprehensive effort to compile and harmonize existing global peatland area estimates (UNEP, 2022). We rely heavily on two products resulting from this effort: a national-scale dataset of peatland area titled the Global Peatland Database (GPD) and a map of likely peatland areas titled the Global Peatlands Map (GPM; 1 km resolution).
The GPM represents a known overestimate of the global peatland area, so we scaled area estimates derived from spatially explicit analyses dependent on the GPM to match total areas from the GPD. To develop a map of country-level scaling factors, we first calculated the peatland area within each country from the GPM. We calculated the country-level scaling factors as the country-level GPD values divided by the associated GPM values and converted them to a global raster. Some countries had peatland areas represented in either the GPD or GPM, but not both. Four countries had peatland areas in the GPM that were not present in the GPD, which contained 0.51 Mha of peatlands per the GPM. These areas were left unscaled. There were 38 countries with peatland areas in the GPD that did not have areas in the GPM, containing a total 0.70 Mha of peatlands. These areas, which represented 0.14% of the total peatland area in the GPD, were excluded from the scaled maps. We then multiplied the pixel-level GPM values by the scalar raster. Because of the missing countries, this scaling step very slightly overestimated (by 0.4%) total peatlands relative to the GPD. To account for this, we multiplied this intermediate map by a final global scalar (calculated as the global GPM total divided by the GPD total). This process produced a map with the same peatland distribution as the GPM but a total area that summed to that reported in the GPD.
Many coastal wetlands have peat soils, though the extent of this overlap has not been well quantified. Coastal wetlands are handled in the Protect Coastal Wetlands solution, so we excluded them from this solution to avoid double-counting. Because of the large uncertainties in both the peatland maps and available maps of coastal wetlands, we were not confident that the overlap between the two sets of maps provided a reliable estimate of the proportion of coastal wetlands located on peat soils. Therefore, we took the conservative approach of excluding all peatland pixels that were touching or overlapping with the coastline. This reduced the total peatland area considered in this solution by 5.33 Mha (1.1%). We additionally excluded degraded peatlands from the adoption ceiling and achievable range using country-level data from the GPD. Degraded peatlands will continue to be emissions sources until they are restored, so protection alone will not confer an emissions benefit.
We conducted the analyses by latitude bands (tropical: –23.4° to 23.4°; subtropical: –35° to –23.4° and 23.4° to 35°; temperate: –35° to –50° and 35° to 50°; boreal: <–50° and >50°) in order to retain some spatial variability in emissions factors and degradation rates and drivers. We calculated the total peatland area within each latitude band based on both the scaled and unscaled peatland maps with coastal pixels excluded. We used these values as the adoption ceiling and for subsequent calculations of protected areas.
We identified protected peatland areas using the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA, 2024), which contains boundaries for each PA and additional information, including their establishment year and IUCN management category (Ia to VI, not applicable, not reported, and not assigned). For each PA polygon, we extracted the peatland area from the unscaled version of the GPM with coastal pixels removed.
Each PA was classified into climate zones (described above) based on the midpoint between its minimum and maximum latitude. Then, protected peatland areas were summed to the IUCN class-climate zone level, and the proportion of peatlands protected within each was calculated by dividing the protected area by the unscaled total area in each climate zone. The proportion of area protected was then multiplied by the scaled total area for each zone to calculate adoption in hectares within each IUCN class and climate zone. To evaluate trends in adoption over time, we aggregated protected areas by establishment year as reported in the WDPA. We used the same procedure to calculate the proportion of area protected using the unscaled maps, and then scale for the total area by biome.
We used the maps of Indigenous people’s lands from Garnett et al. 2018 to identify Indigenous people’s lands that were not inside of established PAs. The total peatland area within Indigenous people’s lands process as above.
Broadly, we estimated annual, per-ha emissions savings from peatland protection as the difference between net carbon exchange in a protected peatland versus an unprotected peatland, accounting for all emissions pathways, the drivers of disturbance, the baseline rates of peatland disturbance, and the effectiveness of PAs at reducing ecosystem degradation. In brief, our calculation of the effectiveness of peatland protection followed Equation S1, in which the annual peatland loss avoided due to protection (%/yr) is multiplied by the 30-yr cumulative sum of emissions per ha of degraded peatland (CO₂‑eq /ha over a 30-yr period). These two terms are described in depth in the subsequent sections.
Equation A1.
We calculated the avoided rate of peatland loss (%/yr) as the difference between the baseline rate of peatland loss without protection and the estimated rate of peatland loss within PAs (Equation A2), since PAs do not confer complete protection from ecosystem degradation.
Equation A2.
We compiled baseline estimates of the current rates of peatland degradation from all causes (%/yr) from the existing literature (Table A1). Unfortunately, data on the rate of peatland loss within PAs are not available. However, satellite data have enabled in-depth, global-scale studies of the effectiveness of PAs at reducing tree cover loss. While not all peatlands are forested and degradation dynamics on peatlands can differ from those on forests writ large, these estimates are a reasonable approximation of the effectiveness of PAs at reducing peatland loss. We used the country-level estimates of the proportionate reduction in loss inside versus outside of PAs from Wolf et al. (2021), which we aggregated to latitude bands based on the median latitude of each country (Table A1).
Table A1. Biome-level annual baseline rate of peatland loss, the effectiveness of protection at reducing loss, and the annual avoided rate of peatland loss under protection.
| Climate Zone | Mean Annual Peatland Loss (%/yr) | Proportionate Reduction in Loss Under Protection | Avoided Loss Under Protection (%/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreal | 0.3% | 0.44 | 0.13% |
| Subtropic | 1.2% | 0.60 | 0.73% |
| Temperate | 0.6% | 0.56 | 0.33% |
| Tropic | 1.5% | 0.41 | 0.63% |
Emissions Factors for Peatland Degradation
Equation S3 provides an overview of the calculation of emissions from degraded peatlands. In brief, we calculated cumulative emissions as the biomass carbon stock plus the 30-yr total of CO₂‑equivalent fluxes from peat oxidation (Pox), dissolved organic carbon losses (DOC), methane from drainage ditches (Mditch), on-field methane (Mfield), on-field nitrous oxide (N) and the lost net sequestration from an intact peatland, accounting for carbon sequestration in peat and methane emissions from intact peatlands (Seqloss).
Equation A3.
The IPCC Tier 1 emissions factors for peatland degradation are disaggregated by climate zone (tropical, temperate, and boreal), soil fertility status (nutrient-poor versus nutrient rich), and the driver of degradation (many subclasses of forestry, cropland, grassland, and peat extraction) (IPCC 2014; Tables 2.1–2.5). Table III.5 of Annex III of the Global Peatlands Assessment provides a summarized set of emissions factors based directly on the IPCC values but aggregated to the four coarser classes of degradation drivers listed above (UNEP, 2022), which we use for our analysis. They include the following pathways: CO₂ from peat oxidation, off-site emissions from lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), methane emissions from the field and drainage ditches, and nitrous oxide emissions from the field. Particulate organic carbon (POC) losses may be substantial, but were not included in the IPCC methodology due to uncertainties about the fate of transported POC. These emissions factors are reported as annual rates per disturbed hectare, and emissions from these pathways continue over long periods of time.
Three additional pathways that are not included in the IPCC protocol are relevant to the emissions accounting for this analysis: the loss of carbon sequestration potential from leaving the peatland intact, the methane emissions that occur from intact peatlands, and the emissions from removal of the vegetation overlying peat soils. Leifield et al. (2019) reported the annual net carbon uptake per hectare of intact peatlands, including sequestration of carbon in peat minus naturally occurring methane emissions due to the anoxic conditions. If the peatland is not disturbed, these methane emissions and carbon sequestration will persist indefinitely on an annual basis.
We accounted for emissions from removal of biomass using a separate protocol than emissions occurring from the peat soil due to differences in the temporal dynamics of loss. While all other emissions from peat occur on an annual basis and continue for many decades or longer, emissions from biomass occur relatively quickly. Biomass clearing produces a rapid pulse of emissions from labile carbon pools followed by a declining, but persistent, rate of emissions as more recalcitrant carbon pools decay over subsequent years. The entire biomass carbon stock is likely to be lost within 30 years. Average biomass carbon stocks over the extent of the peatland distribution in the GPM were calculated by latitude band based on the above and below ground biomass carbon stock data from Spawn et al. (2020). We presumed 100% of the biomass carbon stock is lost from peatland degradation, though in many cases some amount of biomass remains following degradation, depending on the terminal land use.
Peatland Degradation Drivers
Emissions from peatland loss depend on the driver of degradation (e.g., forestry, cropland, peat extraction; IPCC 2014). The GPD contains national-scale estimates of historical peatland loss by driver, which we used to calculate weights for each driver, reflecting the proportion of peatland loss attributable to each driver by latitude band. We took the weighted average of the driver-specific peatland emissions factors, calculated as the sum of the products of the weights and the driver-specific emissions factors.
Appendix References
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This solution focuses on the legal protection of grassland and savanna ecosystems through the establishment of protected areas (PAs), which are managed with the primary goal of conserving nature, and land tenure for Indigenous peoples. These protections reduce grassland degradation, which preserves carbon stored in soils and vegetation and enables continued carbon sequestration by healthy grasslands.
This solution only includes non-coastal grasslands and savannas on mineral soils in areas that do not naturally support forests. Salt marshes are included in the Protect Coastal Wetlands solution, grasslands on peat soils are included in the Protect Peatlands solution, grasslands that are the product of deforestation are included in the Restore Forests solution, and grasslands that have been converted to other uses are included in the Restore Grasslands and Savannas solution.
Grasslands, also called steppes (Europe and Asia), pampas (South America), and prairies (North America), are ecosystems dominated by herbaceous plants that have relatively low tree or shrub cover. Savannas are ecosystems characterized by low-density tree cover that allows for a grass subcanopy (Bardgett et al., 2021; Parente et al., 2024). Grasslands and savannas span arid to mesic climates from the tropics to the tundra; many depend on periodic fires and grazing by large herbivores. The dataset used to define grassland extent for this analysis classifies areas with sparse vegetation, including some shrublands, deserts, and tundra, as grasslands (Parente et al., 2024), but excludes planted and intensively managed livestock pastures. Hereafter we refer to all of these ecosystems, including savannas, as “grasslands.”
Historically, grasslands covered up to 40% of global land area, depending on the definition used (Bardgett et al., 2021; Parente et al., 2024; Suttie et al., 2005). An estimated 46% of temperate grasslands and 24% of tropical grasslands have been converted to cropland or lost to afforestation or development (Hoekstra et al., 2004). Nearly half of remaining grasslands are estimated to be degraded due to over- or undergrazing, woody plant encroachment, climate change, invasive species, addition of fertilizers or legumes for forage production, and changing fire regimes (Bardgett et al., 2021; Briggs et al., 2005; Gang et al., 2014; Ratajczak et al., 2012).
Grasslands store carbon primarily in soils and below-ground biomass (Bai & Cotrufo, 2022). A large fraction of the carbon that grasses take up is allocated to root growth, which over time is incorporated into soil organic matter (Bai & Cotrufo, 2022). When native vegetation is removed and land is tilled to convert grasslands to croplands, carbon from biomass and soils is lost as CO₂.
Estimates of total carbon stocks in grasslands range from 388–1,257 Gt CO₂‑eq (Conant et al., 2017; Goldstein et al., 2020; Poeplau, 2021). Soil carbon generally persists over long timescales and takes decades to rebuild, with one study estimating that 132 Gt CO₂‑eq in grasslands is vulnerable to loss, and that 25 Gt CO₂‑eq of that would be irrecoverable over a 30-year timeframe (Goldstein et al., 2020). Our analysis did not quantify the impacts of grazing or woody plant encroachment on grassland carbon stocks, which can be mixed, though grazing is discussed further in the Improve Livestock Grazing solution (Barger et al., 2011; Conant et al., 2017; Jackson et al., 2002; Stanley et al., 2024).
Long-term legal protection of grasslands through PAs and Indigenous peoples’ land tenure reduces conversion and therefore avoids conversion-related pulses of GHG emissions from plowing soils and removing biomass. We consider grasslands to be protected if they are 1) formally designated as PAs (United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre [UNEP-WCMC] and International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources [IUCN], 2024), or 2) mapped as Indigenous peoples’ lands (IPLs) by Garnett et al. (2018) (Appendix). PAs vary in their allowed uses, ranging from strict wilderness preserves to sustainable-use areas that allow for some natural resource extraction; all levels were included in this analysis (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024).
IPLs and PAs reduce, but do not eliminate, ecosystem loss (Baragwanath et al., 2020; Blackman & Viet 2018; Li et al., 2024; McNicol et al., 2023; Sze et al. 2022; Wolf et al., 2023; Wade et al., 2020). Improving management to further reduce land use change within PAs and ensure ecologically appropriate grazing and fire regimes is a critical component of grassland protection (Jones et al., 2018; Meng et al., 2023; Vijay et al., 2018; Visconti et al., 2019; Watson et al., 2014). Additionally, market-based strategies and other policies can complement legal protection by reducing incentives for grassland conversion (e.g., Garett et al., 2019; Golub et al., 2021; Heilmayr et al., 2020; Lambin et al., 2018; Levy et al., 2023; Macdonald et al., 2024; Marin et al., 2022; Villoria et al., 2022; West et al., 2023). Our analyses are based on legal protection because the impact of market-based strategies is difficult to quantify, but these strategies will be further discussed in an additional appendix (coming soon).
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Zhu, K., Song, Y., Lesage, J. C., Luong, J. C., Bartolome, J. W., Chiariello, N. R., Dudney, J., Field, C. B., Hallett, L. M., Hammond, M., Harrison, S. P., Hayes, G. F., Hobbs, R. J., Holl, K. D., Hopkinson, P., Larios, L., Loik, M. E., & Prugh, L. R. (2024). Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 8(12), 2252–2264. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02552-z
Avery Driscoll
Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.
James Gerber, Ph.D.
Daniel Jasper
Alex Sweeney
Aiyana Bodi
Hannah Henkin
Ted Otte
Christina Richardson, Ph.D.
Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
Paul C. West, Ph.D.
We estimated that protecting 1 ha of grasslands avoids 0.06–0.90 t CO₂‑eq/yr, with emissions reductions tending to be higher in boreal and temperate regions than tropical and subtropical regions (100-yr GWP; Table 1a–d; Appendix).
We estimated effectiveness as the avoided emissions attributable to the reduction in grassland conversion conferred by protection (Equation 1; Appendix), assuming that converted grasslands are used as croplands due to data constraints. Although some grasslands are converted to intensively managed pastures or urban development, we assumed that the total land area converted to infrastructure is relatively small and emissions associated with conversion to planted pastures are comparable to those from conversion to cropland.
We aggregated estimates of avoided grassland conversion attributable to PAs from Li et al. (2024) to the biome level (Grassland lossavoided), then multiplied the result by the total emissions over 30 years from 1 ha of grassland converted to cropland. These emissions include the change in biomass and soil carbon on conversion to cropland (Carbonemissions), 30 years of lost carbon sequestration potential (Carbonuptake), and nitrous oxide emissions associated with soil carbon loss, which is a small component of total emissions (see Appendix for details; Chang et al. 2021; Huang et al., 2024; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2019; Poggio et al., 2021; Spawn et al., 2020).
Equation 1.
The effectiveness of grassland protection as defined here reflects only a small percentage of the carbon stored in grasslands because we accounted for the likelihood that the grassland would be converted without protection. Grassland protection is particularly impactful for areas at high risk of conversion.
Table 1a–d. Effectiveness of grassland protection at avoiding emissions and sequestering carbon. Regional differences in values are driven by variation in carbon stocks, baseline rates of grassland conversion, and the effectiveness of PAs at reducing conversion.
Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr
| Estimate | 0.90 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr
| Estimate | 0.54 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr
| Estimate | 0.13 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq (100-yr basis)/ha/yr
| Estimate | 0.06 |
The costs of grassland protection include up-front costs of land acquisition and ongoing costs of management and enforcement. The market price of land reflects the opportunity cost of not using the land for other purposes, such as agriculture or urban development. Data related to the costs of grassland protection are very limited.
We estimated that grassland protection provides a net cost savings of approximately US$0.53/ha/yr, or US$1.58/t CO₂‑eq avoided (Table 2). This estimate reflects global averages rather than regionally specific values, and some data are not specific to grasslands. Costs and revenues are highly variable across regions, depending on the costs of land and enforcement and the potential for tourism.
Dienerstein et al. (2024) estimated the initial cost of establishing a PA for 60 high-biodiversity ecoregions. Amongst the 20 regions that contain grasslands, the median acquisition cost was US$897/ha, which we amortized over 30 years. Costs of PA maintenance were estimated at US$9–17/ha/yr (Bruner et al., 2004; Waldron et al., 2020), though these estimates were not specific to grasslands. Additionally, these estimates reflect the costs of effective enforcement and management, but many existing PAs lack adequate funds for effective enforcement (Adams et al., 2019; Barnes et al., 2018; Burner et al., 2004).
Protecting grasslands can generate revenue through increased tourism. Waldron et al. (2020) estimated that, across all ecosystems, tourism revenues directly attributable to PA establishment were US$43 ha/yr, not including downstream revenues from industries that benefit from increased tourism. Inclusion of a tourism multiplier would substantially increase the estimated economic benefits of grassland protection.
Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact for grassland protection. Negative value indicates cost savings.
Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis
| Median | -1.58 |
A learning curve is defined here as falling costs with increased adoption. The costs of grassland protection do not fall with increasing adoption, so there is no learning curve for this solution.
The term speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is separate from the speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.
At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.
Protect Grasslands is an EMERGENCY BRAKE climate solution. It reduces pulses of emissions from the conversion of grasslands, offering the potential to deliver a more rapid impact than gradual and delayed solutions. Because emergency brake solutions can deliver their climate benefits quickly, they can help accelerate our efforts to address dangerous levels of climate change. For this reason, they are a high priority.
Permanence
Permanence is a caveat for emissions avoidance through grassland protection that is not addressed in this analysis. Protected grasslands could be converted to agricultural uses or other development if legal protections are reversed or inadequately enforced, resulting in the loss of stored carbon. Many PAs allow for some human uses, and PA management that is not tailored to grazing needs, fire dependency, or woody plant encroachment can reduce carbon stocks within PAs (Barger et al., 2011; Chang et al., 2021; Conant et al, 2017; Jackson et al., 2002; Kemp et al., 2013; Popleau et al., 2011). Climate change is also causing widespread degradation of grasslands, including reductions in vegetation productivity that may reduce carbon storage over the long term even in the absence of additional disturbance (Chang et al., 2021; Gang et al., 2014; Li et al., 2023; Zhu et al., 2016). Climate change and aridification may also cause expansion of grassland extent (Berg & McColl, 2021; Feng & Fu, 2014; Huang et al., 2016), with mixed but overall negative impacts on terrestrial carbon uptake (Yao et al., 2020).
Additionality
Additionality is another important caveat for emissions avoidance through ecosystem protection (Ahlering et al., 2016; Williams et al., 2023). In this analysis, additionality was addressed by using baseline rates of grassland conversion in calculating effectiveness. Evaluating additionality is challenging and remains an active area of research.
A total of 555 Mha of grasslands (excluding grasslands on peat soils, grasslands that are also coastal wetlands, and grasslands created through deforestation) are currently located within PAs, and an additional 832 Mha are located on IPLs not classified as PAs (Table 3e). That means that ~48% of grasslands are under some form of protection globally, with 6% in strict PAs, 13% in non-strict PAs, and 29% on IPLs that are not also PAs. As of 2023, tropical regions had the largest extent of protected grasslands (583 Mha), followed by boreal regions (339 Mha), and subtropical regions (293 Mha). In temperate regions, only 24% of grasslands (172 Mha) were under any form of protection (Table 3a–d).
Table 3a–e. Grassland under protection by biome (circa 2023). Estimates are provided for three different forms of protection: “strict” protection, including IUCN classes I and II; “non-strict” protection, including all other IUCN categories; and IPLs outside of PAs. Regional values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.
Unit: ha protected
| Strict PAs | 52,564,000 |
| Non-strict PAs | 82,447,000 |
| IPLs | 203,579,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Strict PAs | 30,242,000 |
| Non-strict PAs | 51,033,000 |
| IPLs | 90,973,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Strict PAs | 31,949,000 |
| Non-strict PAs | 83,745,000 |
| IPLs | 177,301,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Strict PAs | 56,233,000 |
| Non-strict PAs | 166,356,000 |
| IPLs | 359,997,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Strict PAs | 170,988,000 |
| Non-strict PAs | 383,581,000 |
| IPLs | 831,850,000 |
We calculated the annual rate of new grassland protection based on the year of PA establishment for areas established in 2000–2020. The median annual increase in grassland protection was 8.1 Mha (mean 11.4 Mha; Table 4e). This represents a roughly 1.5%/yr increase in grasslands within PAs, or protection of an additional 0.3%/yr of total global grasslands. Grassland protection has proceeded more quickly in tropical regions (median increase of 4.0 Mha/yr) than in other climate zones (median increases of 1.2–1.6 Mha/yr) (Table 4a–d).
Table 4a–e. Adoption trend for grassland protection in PAs of any IUCN class (2000–2020). The 25th and 75th percentiles reflect only interannual variance (ha grassland protected/yr). IPLs are not included in this analysis due to a lack of data.
Unit: ha grassland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 659,000 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 1,338,000 |
| Mean | 2,152,000 |
| 75th percentile | 3,007,000 |
Unit: ha grassland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 692,000 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 1,178,000 |
| Mean | 1,728,000 |
| 75th percentile | 1,715,000 |
Unit: ha grassland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 940,000 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 1,580,000 |
| Mean | 2,791,000 |
| 75th percentile | 3,226,000 |
Unit: ha grassland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 2,628,000 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 4,044,000 |
| Mean | 4,711,000 |
| 75th percentile | 5,774,000 |
Unit: ha grassland protected/yr
| 25th percentile | 4,919,000 |
| Median (50th percentile) | 8,140,000 |
| Mean | 11,382,000 |
| 75th percentile | 13,722,000 |
Figure 1. Trend in grassland protection by climate zone (2000-2020) in terms of total hectares protected (left) and the percent of the current adoption ceiling protected (right). These values reflect only the area located within PA. Grasslands located in IPLs, which were not included in the calculation of the adoption trend due to a lack of data, are excluded. Data from Project Drawdown.
Including grasslands that are currently protected, we estimated that there are approximately 2,891 Mha of natural grasslands that are not counted in a different solution (Table 5e). This ceiling includes 1,505 Mha that are not currently under any form of protection. This includes 533 Mha of eligible grasslands in boreal regions, 723 Mha in temperate regions, 626 Mha in the subtropics, and 1,008 Mha in the tropics (Table 5a–d).
To develop these estimates, we relied on the global grassland map from Parente et al. (2024), excluded areas that were included in the Protect Forests, Protect Peatlands, and Protect Coastal Wetlands solutions, and excluded areas that were historically forested according to the Terrestrial Ecoregions of The World dataset (Olson et al., 2001; Appendix). While it is not socially, politically, or economically realistic that all remaining grasslands could be protected, these values represent the technical upper limit to adoption of this solution.
Table 5a–e. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption of legal protection of grasslands by biome. Values may not sum to global totals due to rounding.
Unit: ha protected
| Estimate | 533,033,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Estimate | 723,429,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Estimate | 626,474,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Estimate | 1,008,375,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Estimate | 2,891,311,000 |
We assigned a low achievable level of a minimum of 50% of grasslands in each climate zone (Table 6a–e). For boreal and tropical regions, in which 64% and 58%, respectively, of grasslands are already protected, we assumed no change in the area under protection (Table 6a, d). For temperate areas, the low achievable target reflects an increase of 189 Mha, or more than a doubling of the current PA extent (Table 6b). In subtropical zones, this target reflects an additional 20 Mha under protection (Table 6c). We assigned a high achievable level of 70% of grasslands in each climate zone, reflecting an additional 637 Mha of protected grasslands globally, or a 46% increase in the current PA extent (Table 6a–e).
Table 6a–e. Range of achievable adoption of grassland protection by biome.
Unit: ha protected
| Current adoption | 338,590,000 |
| Achievable – low | 338,590,000 |
| Achievable – high | 373,123,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 533,033,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Current adoption | 172,248,000 |
| Achievable – low | 361,715,000 |
| Achievable – high | 506,400,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 723,429,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Current adoption | 292,995,000 |
| Achievable – low | 313,237,000 |
| Achievable – high | 438,532,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 626,474,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Current adoption | 582,586,000 |
| Achievable – low | 582,586,000 |
| Achievable – high | 705,863,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 1,008,375,000 |
Unit: ha protected
| Current adoption | 1,386,419,000 |
| Achievable – low | 1,596,128,000 |
| Achievable – high | 2,023,918,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 2,891,311,000 |
We estimated that PAs currently reduce GHG emissions from grassland conversion by 0.468 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 7a–e). Achievable levels of grassland protection have the potential to reduce emissions 0.572–0.704 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, with a technical upper bound of 1.006 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Table 7a–e). This indicates that further emissions reductions of 0.105–0.237 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr are achievable. For these benefits to be realized, grazing, fire, and woody plant management must be responsive to local grassland needs and compatible with the maintenance of carbon stocks. The solutions Improve Livestock Grazing and Deploy Silvopasture address the climate impacts of some aspects of grassland management.
Few other sources explicitly quantify the climate impacts of grassland protection, but the available data are roughly aligned with our estimates of additional mitigation potential. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that avoided conversion of grasslands to croplands could reduce emissions by 0.03–0.7 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Nabuurs et al., 2022). Griscom et al. (2017) estimated that avoided grassland conversion could save 0.12 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr emissions from soil carbon only (not counting loss of vegetation, sequestration potential, or nitrous oxide), though their analysis did not account for current protection and relied on older estimates of grassland conversion.
Table 7a–e. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.305 |
| Achievable – low | 0.305 |
| Achievable – high | 0.336 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.481 |
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.093 |
| Achievable – low | 0.195 |
| Achievable – high | 0.273 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.390 |
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.037 |
| Achievable – low | 0.039 |
| Achievable – high | 0.055 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.078 |
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.033 |
| Achievable – low | 0.033 |
| Achievable – high | 0.040 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.057 |
Unit: GtCO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | 0.468 |
| Achievable – low | 0.572 |
| Achievable – high | 0.704 |
| Adoption ceiling | 1.006 |
Grassland plants often have deep root systems, leading to high soil carbon stocks (Sloat et al., 2025). These roots can absorb water and reduce discharge into surrounding water bodies during periods of excessive rain (GRaSS, 2024).
Different grassland plant species respond differently to drought. Variations in precipitation seasonality due to drought may allow some grass species to dominate over others (Knapp et al., 2020). Evidence suggests that higher species diversity can enhance grassland resilience to drought (Smith et al., 2024; Yu et al., 2025). Additionally, the deep root systems of grassland plants contribute to the drought resilience of these ecosystems (Sloat et al., 2025). More resilient, biodiverse grasslands are associated with greater ecosystem stability and productivity, and can maintain ecosystem services during periods of extreme weather, such as drought (Isbell et al, 2015; Lefcheck et al., 2015).
Grasslands are an important source of income for surrounding communities through tourism and other ecosystem services (Bengtsson et al., 2019). Protecting grasslands sustains the long-term health of the ecosystem, which is especially important for subsistence livelihoods that depend on intact landscapes for incomes (Pelser, 2015). Sources of income that are directly generated from grasslands include: meat, milk, wool, and leather and thatching materials to make brooms, hats, and baskets (GRaSS, 2024; Pelser, 2015). People living near grasslands often rely on grazing livestock for food and income (GRaSS, 2024, Kemp 2013, Su et al., 2019). Grasslands in China support the livelihoods of about 16 million people, many of whom live in poverty (Kemp et al., 2013). The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is especially important for grazing livestock (Su et al., 2019). Evidence has shown that declines in grassland productivity are also linked to declines in income (Kemp et al., 2013).
Grasslands can contribute to food security by providing food for livestock and supporting pollinators for nearby agriculture (Sloat et al., 2025). Grassland-based grazing systems are important sources of food for populations in low and middle-income countries, particularly in Oceania, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa (Resare Sahlin et al., 2023). Grasslands can support the food security of smallholder farmers and pastoralists in these regions by providing meat and milk (GRaSS, 2024; Michalk, 2018).
Grasslands are central to many cultures, and grassland protection can support shared cultural and spiritual values for many populations. They can be sources of identity for people living in or near grassland ecosystems who have strong connections with the land (Bengtsson et al., 2019, GRaSS, 2024). In Mongolia, for example, grasslands sustain horses, which are central to the cultural identities and livelihoods of communities, particularly nomadic populations (Kemp et al., 2014). Grasslands can also be an important source of shared identity for pastoralists who move herds to graze based on seasonal cycles during the year (Liechti & Biber, 2016).
Many grasslands are biodiversity hot spots (Petermann & Buzhdygan, 2021; Su et al., 2019). Numerous plant and animal species are endemic to grasslands, meaning they have limited habitat ranges and can easily become endangered with habitat degradation (Sloat et al., 2025). In Germany, grasslands in PAs were found to have higher plant diversity than in non-PAs (Kachler et al., 2023). Grasslands are important habitats for bird species that rely on them for breeding grounds (GRaSS, 2024; Nugent et al., 2022).
The unique, deep root structures of some grassland plants can improve soil stability and reduce soil erosion (Bengtsson et al., 2019; GRaSS, 2024; Kemp et al., 2013).
Grasslands can regulate water flows and water storage. The root systems can help rainwater reach deep underground, recharging groundwater stores (Bengtsson et al., 2019; GRaSS, 2024).
Relying on grassland protection as an emissions reduction strategy can be undermined if ecosystem conversion that is not allowed inside a PA simply takes place outside of it instead (Aherling et al., 2016; Asamoah et al., 2021). If such leakage leads to conversion of ecosystems that have higher carbon stocks, such as forests, peatlands, or coastal wetlands, total emissions may increase. Combining grassland protection with policies to reduce incentives for ecosystem conversion can help avoid leakage.
PAs often include multiple ecosystems. Grassland protection will likely lead to protection of other ecosystems within the same areas, and the health of nearby ecosystems is improved by the services provided by intact grasslands.
Restored grasslands need protection to reduce the risk of future disturbance, and the health of protected grasslands can be improved through the restoration of adjacent degraded grasslands.
Protecting grasslands & savannas could limit land availability for renewable energy technologies and raw material and food production and therefore competes with the following solutions for land:
ha of grassland or savanna protected
CO₂, N₂O
ha of grassland or savanna protected
CO₂, N₂O
ha of grassland or savanna protected
CO₂, N₂O
ha of grassland or savanna protected
CO₂, N₂O
Establishment of PAs may limit local access to grasslands for grazing or other forms of income generation, although effective management plans should account for the grazing needs of the protected grassland. Second, allocation of budgetary resources to PA establishment may divert resources from maintenance and enforcement of existing PAs. Finally, protection of grasslands may reduce land availability for renewable energy infrastructure, such as solar and wind power.
There is high scientific consensus that grassland protection reduces emissions by reducing conversion of grasslands. Grasslands have been extensively converted globally because of their utility for agricultural use, and many extant grasslands are at high risk of conversion (Carbutt et al., 2017; Gang et al., 2014). Li et al. (2024) found that PAs prevent conversion of approximately 0.35% of global grasslands per year. Although grasslands remain understudied relative to some other ecosystems, there is robust evidence that PAs and IPLs reduce forest conversion, with estimates in different regions ranging from 17–75% reductions in forest loss relative to unprotected areas (Baragwanth & Bayi, 2020; Graham et al., 2021; McNichol et al., 2023; Sze et al., 2022; Wolf et al., 2022). Additional research specific to grasslands on the effectiveness of PAs and IPLs at preventing land use change would be valuable.
Conversion of grasslands to croplands produces emissions through the loss of soil carbon and biomass (IPCC, 2019). A recent meta-analysis based on 5,980 soil carbon measurements found that grassland conversion to croplands reduces soil carbon stocks by a global average of 23%, or almost 30 t CO₂ /ha (Huang et al., 2024), before accounting for nitrous oxide emissions (IPCC, 2019), loss of biomass carbon stocks (Spawn et al., 2020), and loss of sequestration potential (Chang et al., 2021).
Regional studies also find that grassland protection provides emissions savings. For instance, a study of grasslands in Argentina and the United States found that conversion to croplands reduced total carbon stocks, including soil and biomass, by 117 t CO₂‑eq /ha (Kim et al., 2016). Ahlering et al. (2016) conclude that protecting just 210,000 ha of unprotected grasslands in the U.S. Northern Great Plains would avoid 11.7 Mt CO₂‑eq over 20 years, with emissions savings of 51.6 t CO₂‑eq /ha protected, or 35.6 t CO₂‑eq /ha after accounting for leakage and uncertainty.
The quantitative results presented in this assessment synthesize findings from 13 global datasets supplemented by three meta-analyses with global scopes. We recognize that geographic bias in the information underlying global data products creates bias and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.
This analysis quantifies the emissions avoidable through legal protection of grasslands via establishment of PAs or land tenure for Indigenous peoples. We leveraged a global grassland distribution map alongside other ecosystem distribution maps, shapefiles of PAs and IPLs, available data on rates of avoided ecosystem loss attributable to PA establishment, maps of grassland carbon stocks in above- and below-ground biomass, and biome-level estimates of soil carbon loss for grasslands converted to croplands. This appendix describes the source data products and how they were integrated.
Grassland Extent
We relied on the 30-m resolution global map of grassland extent developed by Parente et al. (2024), which classifies both “natural and semi-natural grasslands” and “managed grasslands.” This solution considers only the “natural and semi-natural grasslands” class. We first resampled the data to 1 km resolution by calculating the percent of the pixel occupied by grasslands. To avoid double counting land considered in other ecosystem protection solutions (Protect Forests, Protect Peatlands, and Protect Coastal Wetlands), we then adjusted the grassland map so that no pixel contained a value greater than 100% after summing all ecosystem types. These other ecosystems can overlap with grasslands either because they are non-exclusive (e.g., peatland soils can have grassland vegetation), or because of variable definitions (e.g., the grassland map allows up to 50% tree cover, which could be classified as a forest by other land cover maps). After adjusting for other ecosystems, we used the Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World data (Olson et al., 2001) to exclude areas of natural forest, because these areas are eligible for other solutions.
The resultant raster of proportionate grassland coverage was converted to absolute areas, and used to calculate the total grassland area for each of four latitude bands (tropical: –23.4° to 23.4°; subtropical: –35° to –23.4° and 23.4° to 35°; temperate: –50° to –35° and 35° to 50°; boreal: <–50° and >50°). The analysis was conducted by latitude bands in order to retain some spatial variability in emissions factors and degradation rates.
Protected Grassland Areas
We identified protected grassland areas using the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2024), which contains boundaries for each PA and additional information, including their establishment year and IUCN management category (Ia–VI, not applicable, not reported, and not assigned). The PA boundary data were converted to a raster and used to calculate the grassland area within PA boundaries for each latitude band and each PA category. To evaluate trends in adoption over time, we also aggregated protected areas by establishment year as reported in the WDPA.
We used the maps of IPLs from Garnett et al. (2018) to identify IPLs that were not inside of established PAs. The total grassland area within IPLs was calculated according to the same process as for PAs.
Avoided Grassland Conversion
Broadly, we estimated annual, per-hectare emissions savings from grassland protection as the difference between net carbon exchange in a protected grassland and an unprotected grassland. This calculation followed Equation A1, in which the annual grassland loss avoided due to protection (%/yr) is multiplied by the 30-yr cumulative sum of emissions per hectare of grassland converted to cropland (CO₂‑eq /ha over 30 yr).
Equation A1.
The avoided grassland loss attributable to PAs was calculated from the source data for Figure 7 of Li et al. (2024), which provides the difference in habitat loss between protected areas and unprotected control areas between 2003 and 2019 by ecoregion. These data were filtered to only include grasslands, aggregated to latitude bands, and used to calculate annual linear rates of avoided habitat loss. Tropical and subtropical regions were not clearly distinguished, so the same rate was used for both.
Grassland Conversion Emissions
The emissions associated with grassland conversion to cropland include loss of above- and below-ground biomass carbon stocks, loss of soil carbon stocks, and loss of carbon sequestration potential. We used data on above- and below-ground biomass carbon stocks from Spawn et al. (2020) to calculate the average carbon stocks by latitude band for grassland pixels and cropland pixels. We used the 2010 European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI, 2019) land cover dataset for this calculation because it was the base map used to generate the biomass carbon stock dataset. The per-hectare difference between biomass carbon stocks in grasslands and croplands represents the emissions from biomass carbon stocks following grassland conversion.
We aggregated soil carbon stocks from SoilGrids 2.0 (0–30 cm depth) to latitude bands for grassland pixels from the 2015 ESA CCI land cover dataset, which was the base map used for the SoilGrids dataset (Poggio et al., 2021). To avoid capturing peatlands, which have higher carbon stocks, we excluded pixels with soil carbon contents >15% by mass (a slightly conservative cutoff for organic soils) prior to aggregation. We took the percent loss of soil carbon following grassland-to-cropland conversion from Table S8 of the meta-analysis by Huang et al. (2024), who also conducted their analysis by latitude band. Soil carbon losses are also associated with nitrous oxide emissions, which were calculated per the IPCC Tier 1 equations as follows using the default carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of 15:1.
We calculated the loss of carbon sequestration potential based on estimates of grassland annual net CO₂ flux, extracted from Table S2 from Chang et al. (2021). These data include field- and model-based measurements of grassland net CO₂ flux and were used to calculate median values by latitude band.
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