What is our assessment?

Based on our analysis, improving district heating for industry by integrating low-carbon heat sources has the potential to significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels and the emissions they generate. However, the lack of data, combined with the complexity of such projects and the growing interest in alternative decarbonization pathways, makes this a potential solution to “Keep Watching.”

What is it?

District heating systems consist of a network of underground pipes that distribute heat to a large number of buildings, including industrial buildings. In the industrial sector, district heating is used by light industries and for processes such as drying, paper making, food processing, as well as space heating and even heat-driven chillers for refrigeration. Industry is well-suited to district heating because it typically has steady and predictable heat demand throughout the year. Current district heating systems rely heavily on coal and natural gas for heat generation, often as part of combined heat and power generation. Low-carbon alternatives for district heating can include electric heat pumps, solar thermal, deep geothermal, and even waste heat from other industries. 

Does it work?

Shifting district heating for industry from conventional heat sources to low-carbon heat sources will significantly reduce emissions. Our analysis for district heating use by commercial and residential buildings shows that significant emissions can be avoided by shifting to electric boilers, heat pumps, and the use of waste heat (see Improve District Heating: Buildings). Similar outcomes are likely possible for industrial district heating use, and emissions reductions will increase as more renewables are integrated into the electricity systems used to power electric boilers and heat pumps. 

Why are we excited?

District heating for industry currently produces significant emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), district heating for all applications accounted for 4% of global emissions in 2022, and roughly 40% of the heat energy from district heating was delivered to industry. China is a major adopter of district heating for industries, with the combustion of coal supplying much of that heat. The shift to renewable heat sources is likely to increase because both China and the EU have policies targeting the adoption of renewables in district heating. Because district heating systems serve multiple buildings, a single project to replace fossil fuels with renewables can have a large impact. Such projects also have the benefit of reducing local air pollution. 

Why are we concerned?

Although simple on paper, replacing fossil fuel systems with lower-carbon alternatives in district heating systems can be an extended undertaking involving many stakeholders and years of planning. Some low-carbon options may not be suitable for industrial processes that require higher temperatures than those needed for space heating. There is also a significant lack of publicly available data about how industry currently uses district heating and the opportunities and challenges involved in shifting to renewables. In the meantime, industrial heat pumps with higher temperature outputs (100–200°C) are increasingly available and could become a low-carbon competitor to the use of a conventional district heating system.

What is our assessment?

Based on our analysis, the climate impact of restoring seaweed ecosystems is unclear but likely to be low. While restoration offers important ecological benefits, its effectiveness in removing carbon is understudied, and the implementation costs may be prohibitively high, but require further research. Therefore, we conclude that Restore Seaweed Ecosystems is a solution to “Keep Watching.”

What is it?

Seaweed ecosystem restoration is the deliberate action of reestablishing seaweed in degraded, damaged, or destroyed ecosystems. Seaweed removes CO₂ from seawater through photosynthesis, which allows the ocean to absorb additional CO₂ from the atmosphere. Some of the fixed carbon can be sequestered through export to the deep sea or burial at the seafloor, while a portion may also persist as carbon forms that resist degradation even in the surface ocean. Restoration of seaweed ecosystems helps restore biomass and therefore the productivity of these ecosystems, which can enhance their sequestration capacity. Restoration can occur in a number of ways, but commonly includes transplanting adults, controlling grazers, building artificial reefs, seeding with propagules or spores, remediating pollution, removing competitive species, and culturing. Most restoration efforts have focused on canopy-forming species, such as giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera). 

Does it work?

Seaweed ecosystem restoration can be somewhat effective, with nearly 60% of restoration efforts achieving survival rates of over 50%. The first large-scale restoration is thought to have occurred in Japan in the late 1800s. Still, few projects have been implemented at scale, with most restoration efforts below 0.1 ha in size. Moreover, little data exist to evaluate the effectiveness of restored seaweed ecosystems at removing carbon. While theoretically, they should regain functional equivalence to intact systems, this requires further research. The extent of lost and degraded seaweed ecosystems is also poorly understood, making it unclear how restoration efforts might be scaled globally. Additionally, the air-to-sea transfer of CO₂ to replace the CO₂ taken up by photosynthesis in the ocean is not always efficient, meaning removal in the water column may not always translate to equivalent atmospheric CO₂ removal. However, this aspect of effectiveness also remains understudied. Consequently, the climate impact of restoration is uncertain.

Why are we excited?

Healthy seaweed ecosystems provide a range of ecological benefits. Seaweed can help buffer against ocean acidification in some places as functional systems better regulate pH. These systems also provide complex habitats that support a wide range of marine life, such as fish and invertebrates, so restoring seaweed ecosystems can help recover biodiversity. Seaweed ecosystem restoration can also improve nutrient cycling and overall ecosystem resilience to climate stressors.

Why are we concerned?

Restoration of seaweed ecosystems is currently expensive, with costs varying widely depending on the method used. In kelp forests, chemical or manual urchin removal, which reduces grazing pressure, may cost between US$1,700/ha and US$76,000/ha in 2023 dollars, while most other approaches exceed US$590,000/ha.

It’s also unclear whether seaweed restoration efforts could scale enough to have a globally meaningful impact on GHG emissions. Using estimates from intact subtidal brown seaweed ecosystems, which are among the most productive and represent a likely upper limit on the effectiveness of seaweed restoration as a whole, restoration might remove 2.3 tCO₂‑eq /ha/yr. At this rate, over 40 Mha would need to be restored to exceed 0.1 GtCO₂‑eq/yr. However, most restoration projects are under 0.1 ha in size. For kelp forests, only roughly 2% (19,000 ha) have been restored out of the Kelp Forest Challenge’s target of 1,000,000 ha by 2040, suggesting that this practice may not be scalable currently.

The effectiveness of restoration can also be offset by the lifecycle emissions of products required to re-establish some seaweed ecosystems. For example, emissions from the production of cement blocks needed to afforest some seaweed habitats have been estimated to potentially delay carbon removal benefits for 5–13 years in some systems.