Deploy LED Lighting

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Electricity
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Enhance Efficiency
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Summary

We define the Deploy LED Lighting solution as replacing energy-inefficient light sources with light-emitting diodes (LEDs). Lighting accounts for 15–20% of electricity use in buildings. Using LEDs reduces the electricity that building lighting consumes, and thereby cuts GHG emissions from global electricity generation.

Income & work,Health
Water quality,Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Using LEDs reduces the electricity that building lighting consumes, and thereby cuts GHG emissions from global electricity generation.
Overview

LED technology for lighting indoor and outdoor spaces is more energy-efficient than other lighting sources currently on the market (Zissis et al., 2021). This is because LEDs are solid-state semiconductors that emit light generated through a direct conversion of the flow of electricity (electroluminescence) rather than heating a tungsten filament to make it glow. More of the electrical energy goes to producing light in an LED lamp than in less-efficient alternative lighting technologies such as incandescent light bulbs or compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) (Koretsky, 2021; Nair & Dhoble, 2021a). This difference offers significant energy-efficiency gains (see Figure 1).

Globally, lighting-related electricity consumption can account for as much as 20% of the total annual electricity used in buildings (Gayral, 2017; Pompei et al., 2020; Pompei et al., 2022). In 2022, the IEA estimated that total electricity consumption for lighting buildings globally was 1,736 TWh (Lane, 2023). Schleich et al. (2014) and others have argued that buildings consume more electricity for lighting due to a rebound effect when occupants perceive a lighting source as efficient. However, the growing adoption of LED lighting over the years has significantly optimized electricity consumption from building lighting, especially in residential buildings (Lane, 2023).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2006), generating electricity from fossil fuels emits CO₂,  methane, and nitrous oxide. Replacing inefficient lamps with LEDs cuts these emissions by reducing electricity demand. LEDs often have a power rating of 4–10 W, which is 3–10 times lower than alternatives. LEDs also last significantly longer: With a lifespan that can exceed 25,000 hours, they vastly outperform incandescent bulbs (1,000 hours) and CFLs (10,000 hours), as shown in Figure 1. LED’s longevity leads to potential long-term savings due to fewer replacements. The amount of light produced per energy input (luminous efficacy) is up to 10 times greater than alternative lighting sources. This means substantially more lighting for less energy.

Figure 1. A comparison of light sources for building lighting (data from Lane, 2023; Mathias et al., 2023; Nair & Dhoble, 2021b; Xu, 2019).

Light source type Power rating (watts) Luminous efficacy (lumens/watt) Lifespan (hours)
Incandescent 40–100 10–15 1,000
CFL 12–20 60–63 10,000
LED 4–10 110–150 25,000–100,000

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and other international bodies report LED market penetration in terms of percentages of the global lighting market (Lane, 2023). We chose this approach to track the impact of adopting LEDs.

Take Action Intro

Would you like to help deploy LED lighting? Below are some ways you can make a difference, depending on the roles you play in your professional or personal life.

These actions are meant to be starting points for involvement and may or may not be the most important, impactful, or doable actions you can take. We encourage you to explore, get creative, and take a step that is right for you!

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Gasparotto, J., & Da Boit Martinello, K. (2021). Coal as an energy source and its impacts on human health. Energy Geoscience, 2(2), 113–120. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engeos.2020.07.003

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Hasan, M. M., Moznuzzaman, M., Shaha, A., & Khan, I. (2025). Enhancing energy efficiency in Bangladesh's readymade garment sector: The untapped potential of LED lighting retrofits. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 19(3), 569–588. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-05-2024-0009

Henneman, L., Choirat, C., Dedoussi, I., Dominici, F., Roberts, J., & Zigler, C. (2023). Mortality risk from United States coal electricity generation. 382(6673), 941–946. Link to source: https://doi.org/doi:10.1126/science.adf4915

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International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). Targeting 100% LED lighting sales by 2025. Link to source: https://www.iea.org/reports/targeting-100-led-lighting-sales-by-2025

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). Global floor area and buildings energy intensity in the net zero scenario, 2010-2030. Retrieved 06 March 2025 from Link to source: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-floor-area-and-buildings-energy-intensity-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2010-2030

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). World energy balances. IEA. Link to source: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-balances

Iskra-Golec, I., Wazna, A., & Smith, L. (2012). Effects of blue-enriched light on the daily course of mood, sleepiness and light perception: A field experiment. 44(4), 506-513. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1177/1477153512447528

Kamat, A. S., Khosla, R., & Narayanamurti, V. (2020). Illuminating homes with LEDs in India: Rapid market creation towards low-carbon technology transition in a developing country. Energy Research & Social Science, 66, 101488. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101488

Khan, N., & Abas, N. (2011). Comparative study of energy saving light sources. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(1), 296–309. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.07.072

Koretsky, Z. (2021). Phasing out an embedded technology: Insights from banning the incandescent light bulb in europe. Energy Research & Social Science, 82, 102310. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102310

Lane, K. (2023, 11 July 2023). Lighting. International Energy Agency (IEA). Retrieved 13 December 2024 from Link to source: https://www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings/lighting

Lee, K., Donnelly, S., & Phillips, G. (2024). 2020 U.S. Lighting market characterization. Link to source: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2371534

Lee, K., Nubbe, V., Rego, B., Hansen, M., & Pattison, M. (2021). 2020 LED manufacturing supply chain. U. S. DOE. Link to source: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/ssl-2020-led-mfg-supply-chain-mar21.pdf

Mathias, J. A., Juenger, K. M., & Horton, J. J. (2023). Advances in the energy efficiency of residential appliances in the US: A review. Energy Efficiency, 16(5), 34. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-023-10114-8

Miah, M. A. R., & Kabir, R. (2023). Energy savings forecast for solid-state lighting in residential and commercial buildings in Bangladesh. IEEE PES 15th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC), pp. 1-6. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1109/APPEEC57400.2023.10561921

Moadab, N. H., Olsson, T., Fischl, G., & Aries, M. (2021). Smart versus conventional lighting in apartments - electric lighting energy consumption simulation for three different households. Energy and Buildings, 244, 111009. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111009

Moyano, D. B., Moyano, S. B., López, M. G., Aznal, A. S., & Lezcano, R. A. G. (2020). Nominal risk analysis of the blue light from LED luminaires in indoor lighting design. Optik, 223, 165599. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijleo.2020.165599

Nair, G. B., & Dhoble, S. J. (2021a). 2 - fundamentals of LEDs. In G. B. Nair & S. J. Dhoble (Eds.), The fundamentals and applications of light-emitting diodes (pp. 35–57). Woodhead Publishing. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819605-2.00002-1

Nair, G. B., & Dhoble, S. J. (2021b). 6 - general lighting. In G. B. Nair & S. J. Dhoble (Eds.), The fundamentals and applications of light-emitting diodes (pp. 155–176). Woodhead Publishing. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819605-2.00006-9

Pattison, M., Hansen, M., Bardsley, N., Elliott, C., Lee, K., Pattison, L., & Tsao, J. (2020). 2019 lighting R&D opportunities. Link to source: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1618035

Periyannan, E., Ramachandra, T., & Geekiyanage, D. (2023). Assessment of costs and benefits of green retrofit technologies: Case study of hotel buildings in Sri Lanka. Journal of Building Engineering, 78, 107631. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2023.107631

Placek, M. (2023). LED lighting in the United States - statistics & facts. Statista. Retrieved 09 February 2025 from Link to source: https://www.statista.com/topics/1144/led-lighting-in-the-us/#topicOverview

Pompei, L., Blaso, L., Fumagalli, S., & Bisegna, F. (2022). The impact of key parameters on the energy requirements for artificial lighting in Italian buildings based on standard en 15193-1:2017. Energy and Buildings, 263, 112025. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112025

Pompei, L., Mattoni, B., Bisegna, F., Blaso, L., & Fumagalli, S. (2020, 9–12 June 2020). Evaluation of the energy consumption of an educational building, based on the uni en 15193–1:2017, varying different lighting control systems. 2020 IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 2020 IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC / I&CPS Europe), Madrid, Spain, 2020, pp. 1-6. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1109/EEEIC/ICPSEurope49358.2020.9160588

Sarigiannis, D. A., Karakitsios, S. P., Antonakopoulou, M. P., & Gotti, A. (2012). Exposure analysis of accidental release of mercury from compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). Science of The Total Environment, 435–436, 306–315. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.026

Saunders, H. D., & Tsao, J. Y. (2012). Rebound effects for lighting. Energy Policy, 49, 477-478. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.050

Schleich, J., Mills, B., & Dütschke, E. (2014). A brighter future? Quantifying the rebound effect in energy efficient lighting. Energy Policy, 72, 35–42. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.028

Schratz, M., Gupta, C., Struhs, T. J., & Gray, K. (2016). A new way to see the light: Improving light quality with cost-effective led technology. IEEE Industry Applications Magazine, 22(4), 55–62. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1109/MIAS.2015.2459089

United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). (2021). SADC member states welcome the introduction of new efficient lighting standards. UNIDO. Retrieved 05 March 2025 from Link to source: https://www.unido.org/news/sadc-member-states-welcome-introduction-new-efficient-lighting-standards

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Xiong, Y., Guo, H., Nor, D. D. M. M., Song, A., & Dai, L. (2023). Mineral resources depletion, environmental degradation, and exploitation of natural resources: Covid-19 aftereffects. Resources Policy, 85, 103907. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103907

Xu, Y. (2019). Chapter 2.1 - nature and source of light for plant factory. In M. Anpo, H. Fukuda, & T. Wada (Eds.), Plant factory using artificial light (pp. 47–69). Elsevier. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813973-8.00002-6

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Zissis, G., Bertoldi, P., & Serrenho, T. (2021). Update on the status of LED-lighting world market since 2018. Publications Office of the European Union. Link to source: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122760

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Henry Igugu, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Megan Matthews, Ph.D.

  • Ted Otte

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Replacing 1% of the building lighting market with LED lamps avoids approximately 7.09 Mt CO₂‑eq/yr emissions on a 100-yr basis (Table 1) or 7.15 Mt CO₂‑eq/yr on a 20-yr basis.

We estimated this solution’s effectiveness (Table 1) by multiplying the global electricity savings intensity (kWh/%) by an emissions intensity for each GHG emitted (in g/kWh)  due to electricity generation. Using the IEA (2024)’s energy balances data, we estimated emissions intensities of approximately 529 g/kWh for CO₂, 0.07 g/kWh for methane, and 0.01 g/kWh for nitrous oxide. Country-specific data were limited. Therefore, we developed the savings intensity using the IEA’s adoption trend (%/yr) and electricity consumption reduction (kWh/yr) for residential buildings globally (Lane, 2023). We then scaled up the savings intensity to represent all buildings (since LEDs are applicable in all types of buildings), but we could not find global data specifying the energy savings potential of converting the lighting market in nonresidential buildings to LEDs. Notably, artificial lighting’s energy consumption varies across building types (Moadab et al., 2021) and is typically greater in nonresidential buildings (Build Up, 2019). This presents some level of uncertainty, but also suggests that our estimates could be conservative – and that there is potential for even greater savings in nonresidential buildings.

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Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/% lamps LED/yr, 100-yr basis

Estimate 7090000
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Cost

Our lifetime initial cost estimate of switching 1% of the global building lighting market to LEDs is approximately US$1.5 billion. Because LEDs use less electricity than alternative lamps, they cost less to operate, resulting in operating costs of –US$1.3 billion/yr (i.e., cost savings). Building owners typically are not paid to use LED lighting; therefore, the revenue is zero. After we amortize the initial cost over 30 years, the net annual cost for this solution is –US$1.2 billion/yr globally. Thus, replacing other bulbs with LEDs saves money despite the initial cost.

We estimated the cost (Table 2) by first identifying initial and operating costs from studies that retrofitted buildings with LEDs, such as Periyannan et al. (2023), Hasan et al. (2025), and Forastiere et al. (2024). We then divided the costs by the impact of the LED retrofit on the amount of electricity consumed by lighting in each study and multiplied this by the global electricity savings intensity (kWh/%) we estimated during the effectiveness analysis. The result was the cost per percent of lamps in buildings converted to LED lighting (US$/% lamps LED).

We estimated the cost per unit climate impact by dividing the annual cost savings per adoption unit by the CO₂‑eq emissions reduced yearly per adoption unit (Table 2).

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Table 2. Cost per unit climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq, 100-yr basis

Median -175.0

Negative values reflect cost savings.

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Learning Curve

As LEDs became more common in building lighting, costs dropped significantly in recent years.

Trends based on LED adoption data (Lane, 2023) and the cost of LED lighting (Pattison et al., 2020) showed a 29.7% drop in cost as LED adoption doubled between 2016 and 2019.

The cost data we used to identify the learning curve for this solution (Table 3) are specific to the United States and limited to pre-2020. More recent LED cost data may show additional benefits with respect to cost, but this value may not be applicable for other countries. However, the cost data we analyzed do provide a useful sample of the broader LED cost-reduction trend.

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Table 3. Learning rate: drop in cost per doubling of the installed solution base

Units: %

Estimate 29.7
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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Deploy LED Lighting is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

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Caveats

Our effectiveness analysis is based on the current state of LED technology. If the adoption ceiling is attained, further improvements to the amount of light that LEDs generate per unit electricity could enhance the solution’s impact through further reductions in electricity use.

The rebound effect – where building occupants use more lighting in response to increased energy-efficiency of lamps – is a well-established concern (Saunders and Tsao, 2012; Schleich et al., 2014). We attempted to address this concern by using IEA data on actual electricity consumption originating from building lighting to determine both its effectiveness and cost implications (Lane, 2023).

We did not fully account for the cost savings that potentially arise from fewer bulb replacements, since LEDs may replace various types of lamps. Because LEDs last significantly longer than all alternative lamp technologies, building owners may require fewer replacements when using LED lamps compared with other lighting sources.

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Current Adoption

Lane (2023) found that LED lamps represented 50.5% of the lighting market globally for residential buildings in 2022, but does not provide adoption data specific to nonresidential buildings. Studies that provide global or geographically segmented LED adoption data for all building types are also limited. Therefore, we assume 50.5% to be representative of LED adoption across all buildings globally (Table 4).

Other studies highlight adoption levels across various countries. The data captured in these studies and reports provide context with specific adoption levels from different regions (see Geographic Guidance).

The IEA and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) report that LEDs are increasingly the preferred choice of homeowners and the general building lighting market. This preference is evident in the growing market share of LED lamps sold and installed annually (Lane, 2023; Lee et al., 2024).

In general, the solution’s current adoption globally is substantial, and we recognize that some countries possess more room for the solution to scale. While adoption barriers vary across regions, many countries are establishing lighting standards to drive LED adoption, especially across Africa [(IEA, 2022; United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), 2021].

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Table 4. Current (2022) adoption level.

Units: % lamps LED

Estimate 50.5
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Adoption Trend

Adoption of LEDs has grown approximately 3.75%/yr over the past two decades.

Lane (2023) found that the proportion of lamps sold annually for building lighting that are LEDs grew from 1.1% in 2010 to 50.5% in 2022 (Figure 2). We estimated the adoption trend (Table 5) by determining the percentage growth between successive years, and calculating the variances.

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Figure 2. Trend in LED adoption between 2010 and 2022 (adapted from Lane, 2023).

Source: Lane, K. (2023, 11 July 2023). Lighting. International Energy Agency (IEA). Retrieved 13 December 2024 from https://www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings/lighting

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Data on the growth of LEDs across regional building lighting markets are limited. Lee et al. (2024)’s analysis of the U.S. lighting market found 46.5% growth 2010–2020, which translates to 4.65% annually. Zissis et al. (2021) reported 26% growth for France for 2017–2020, which averages 8.67% annually.

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Table 5. 2010–2022 adoption trend.

Units: % lamps LED market share growth/yr

25th percentile 2.85
Mean 4.12
Median (50th percentile) 3.75
75th percentile 5.4
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Adoption Ceiling

The adoption ceiling (Table 6) is 100%, meaning all lamps in buildings are LEDs. Lane (2023) projects 100% LED market penetration by 2030. If current adoption trends continue, 100% LED adoption is a practical and achievable upper limit. However, countries will need to overcome challenges such as regulatory enforcement, financial, and technology access issues, while preventing the entrance of inferior quality LEDs into their lighting market (IEA, 2022).

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Table 6. Adoption ceiling

Units: % lamps LED

Estimate 100
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Achievable Adoption

We estimate a low achievable adoption scenario of 87% based on Statista’s projections about LED lighting market penetration by 2030 (Placek, 2023). The values were similar in Zissis et al. (2021).

For the high achievable scenario, we projected 10 years beyond the 2022 adoption level using the mean adoption trend of 4.12%/yr. This translates to a 41% growth on top of the current adoption level of 50.5%, summing up to a 92% LED adoption level (Table 7).

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Table 7. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: % lamps LED

Current adoption 50.5
Achievable – low 87
Achievable – high 92
Adoption ceiling 100
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We estimated that current adoption cuts about 0.36 Gt CO₂‑eq emissions on a 100-yr basis compared with the previous alternative lighting sources (Table 8). The low achievable adoption scenario of 87% LED lamps could cut emissions 0.62 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr due to reduced electricity consumption, while a high achievable adoption scenario of 92% LED lamps could cut emissions 0.65 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. If the adoption ceiling of 100% LEDs for lighting buildings is reached, we estimate that 0.71 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr could be avoided (Table 8).

LED lighting could further cut electricity consumption as LED technology continues to improve. However, the technology’s future climate impacts will depend on the emissions of future electricity-generation systems.

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Table 8. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.36
Achievable – low 0.62
Achievable – high 0.65
Adoption ceiling 0.71
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

Because LEDs use less electricity than fluorescent and incandescent light bulbs (Khan & Abas, 2011), households and businesses using LED technology can save money on electricity costs. The payback period for the initial investment from lower utility bills is about one year for residential buildings and about two months for commercial buildings (Amann et al., 2022). LED lighting can contribute to savings by minimizing energy demand for cooling, since LEDs emit less heat than fluorescent and incandescent bulbs (Albatayneh et al., 2021; Schratz et al., 2016). However, it could also lead to a greater need for space heating in some regions. LED lights also last longer than alternative lighting technologies, which can lead to lower maintenance costs (Schratz et al., 2016).

Health

Reductions in air pollution due to LED lighting’s lower electricity demand decrease exposures to pollutants such as mercury and fine particulate matter generated from fossil fuel-based power plants, improving the health of nearby communities [Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2024]. These pollutants have been linked to increased morbidity from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, asthma, infections, and cancer, and to increased risk of mortality (Gasparotto & Martinello, 2021; Henneman et al., 2023). Because LEDs do not contain mercury, they can mitigate small health risks associated with mercury exposure when fluorescent light bulbs break (Bose-O’Reilly et al., 2010; Sarigiannis et al., 2012). Switching to LEDs can also enhance a visual environment and improve occupants’ well-being, visual comfort, and overall productivity when lamps with the appropriate lighting quality and correlated color temperature are selected (Fu et al., 2023; Iskra-Golec et al., 2012; Nair & Dhoble, 2021b).

Air and Water Quality

The lower electricity demand of LEDs could help reduce emissions from power plants and improve air quality (Amann et al., 2022). Additionally, LEDs can mitigate small amounts of mercury found in fluorescent lights (Amann et al., 2022). Mercury contamination from discarded bulbs in landfills can leach into surrounding water bodies and accumulate in aquatic life. LEDs also have longer lifespans than fluorescent and incandescent bulbs (Nair & Dhoble, 2021b) which can reduce the amount of discarded bulbs and further mitigate environmental degradation from landfills. 

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Risks

We found limited data indicating risks with choosing LEDs over other lighting sources. Concerns about eye health raised in the early days of LED adoption (Behar-Cohen et al., 2011) have been allayed by studies that found that LEDs do not pose a greater risk to the eye than comparable lighting sources (Moyano et al., 2020). 

LED manufacturing uses metals like gold, indium, and gallium (Gao et al., 2022). This creates environmental risks due to mining (Xiong et al., 2023) and makes LED supply chains susceptible to macroeconomic uncertainties (Lee et al., 2021). With growing adoption of LED lights, there is also the risk of greater electronic waste at the end of the LED’s lifespan. Therefore, recycling is increasingly important (Cenci et al., 2020). 

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Interactions with Other Solutions

Competing

Some studies demonstrate an increase in the indoor heating requirements when switching to LED lighting from other lighting sources, such as incandescent lamps, that produce more heat than LEDs. The difference is often small, but worth taking into account when adopting LEDs in a building with previously energy-inefficient lighting.

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Dashboard

Solution Basics

% lamps LED

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
7.09×10⁶
units
Current 50.5 08792
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.36 0.620.65
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-175
Gradual

CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

LED lamp manufacturing creates more emissions than manufacturing other types of lamps. For example, Zhang et al. (2023) compared the manufacturing emissions of a 12.5W LED lamp with a 14W CFL and a 60W incandescent bulb. These light sources provided similar levels of illumination (850–900 lumens). The production of one LED bulb resulted in 9.81 kg CO₂‑eq emissions, while the CFL and incandescent resulted in 2.29 and 0.73 kg CO₂‑eq emissions, respectively. However, LEDs are preferred because their longevity results in fewer LED lamps required to provide the same amount of lighting over time. LEDs can last 25 times longer than incandescent lamps with an identical lumen output (Nair & Dhoble, 2021b; Xu, 2019; Zhang et al., 2023). 

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% lamps LED
< 20
20–40
40–60
> 60
No data

Percentage of lamps that are LEDs, circa 2020

The percentage of lamps used to light buildings that are LEDs varies around the world, with limited data available on a per-country basis.

Miah, M. A. R., & Kabir, R. (2023). Energy savings forecast for solid-state lighting in residential and commercial buildings in Bangladesh. IEEE PES 15th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC), pp. 1-6, Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1109/APPEEC57400.2023.10561921

U.S. Department of Energy (2024). 2020 U.S. lighting market characterization. Link to source: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/ssl-lmc2020_apr24.pdf

World Furniture Online (2017). The lighting fixtures market in Australia and New Zealand. Link to source: https://www.worldfurnitureonline.com/report/the-lighting-fixtures-market-in-australia-and-new-zealand/

Zissis, G., Bertoldi, P., & Serrenho, T. (2021). Update on the status of LED-lighting world market since 2018. Publications Office of the European Union. Link to source: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122760

% lamps LED
< 20
20–40
40–60
> 60
No data

Percentage of lamps that are LEDs, circa 2020

The percentage of lamps used to light buildings that are LEDs varies around the world, with limited data available on a per-country basis.

Miah, M. A. R., & Kabir, R. (2023). Energy savings forecast for solid-state lighting in residential and commercial buildings in Bangladesh. IEEE PES 15th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC), pp. 1-6, Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1109/APPEEC57400.2023.10561921

U.S. Department of Energy (2024). 2020 U.S. lighting market characterization. Link to source: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/ssl-lmc2020_apr24.pdf

World Furniture Online (2017). The lighting fixtures market in Australia and New Zealand. Link to source: https://www.worldfurnitureonline.com/report/the-lighting-fixtures-market-in-australia-and-new-zealand/

Zissis, G., Bertoldi, P., & Serrenho, T. (2021). Update on the status of LED-lighting world market since 2018. Publications Office of the European Union. Link to source: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122760

Maps Introduction

The Deploy LED Lighting solution can be equally effective at reducing electricity use across global regions because the efficiency gained by replacing other bulbs with LEDs is functionally identical. However, its climate impact will vary with the emissions intensity of each region’s electricity grid. Secondary considerations associated with uptake of LED lighting also can vary with climate and hence geography. In particular, the decrease in heating associated with LED lighting can reduce demands on air conditioning, leading to increased incentive for solution uptake in warmer climates.

Historically, a few countries typically account for the bulk of LEDs purchased. For example, 30% of the 5 billion LEDs sold globally in 2016 were sold in China. In the same period, North America accounted for 15% while Western Europe, Japan, and India represented 11%, 10%, and 8% of the LEDs sold, respectively (Kamat et al., 2020; U.S. DOE, 2016). Essentially, the growing sales of LEDs drove global adoption levels from 17.6% of the building lighting market in 2016 to 50.5% in 2022 (Lane, 2023). However, current adoption still varies considerably around the world. For instance, Lee et al. (2024) reported that LED market penetration in the U.S. was 47.5% in 2020, compared with 43.3% globally in the same period (Lane, 2023). Meanwhile, LED adoption in France was 35% in 2017, and countries in the Middle East such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey had over 70% LED adoption that same year; residential buildings in the United Kingdom had 13% LED adoption in 2018, while Japan had 60% LED adoption as of 2019 (Zissis et al., 2021). This demonstrates potential to scale LED adoption in the future, especially in low- and middle-income countries where the bulk of new building occurs (IEA, 2023).

Action Word
Deploy
Solution Title
LED Lighting
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Use regulations to phase out and replace energy-inefficient lighting sources with LEDs.
  • Set regulations that encourage sufficient lighting to limit the overuse of LEDs (or rebound effects).
  • Require that public lighting use LEDs.
  • Use financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LEDs.
  • Revise building energy-efficiency standards to reflect energy savings of LEDs.
  • Develop production standards and mandate labeling for LEDs.
  • Build sufficient inspection capacity for LED manufacturers and penalize noncompliance with standards.
  • Use energy-efficiency purchase agreements to help support utility companies during the transition to LED lighting.
  • Invest in research and development that improves the cost and efficiency of LED lighting.
  • Develop a certification program for LED lighting.
  • Create exchange programs or buy-back programs for inefficient light bulbs.
  • Start demonstration projects to promote LED lighting.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Take advantage of or advocate for financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the production of LED lighting.
  • Help develop circular supply chains in renovating, remanufacturing, reusing, and redistributing materials.
  • Invest in research and development to improve efficiency and cost of LEDs.
  • Adhere to, or advocate for, national LED standards.
  • Develop, produce, and sell LED lighting that imitates incandescent or other familiar lighting.
  • Consider bundling services with retrofitting companies and collaborating with utility companies to offer rebates or other incentives.
  • Improve self-service of LEDs by reducing obstacles to installation and ensuring LEDs can be easily replaced.
  • Help create positive perceptions of LED lighting by showcasing usage, cost savings, and emissions reductions.
  • Create feedback mechanisms, such as apps that alert users to real-time benefits such as energy and cost savings.
  • Start demonstration projects to promote LED lighting.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Retrofit existing operations for LEDs, replace inefficient bulbs, and purchase only LEDs going forward.
  • Help develop circular supply chains in renovating, remanufacturing, reusing, and redistributing LED lighting materials.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LED lighting.
  • Invest in research and development that improves the cost and efficiency of LED lighting.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Retrofit existing operations for LEDs, replace inefficient bulbs, and purchase only LEDs going forward.
  • Help develop circular supply chains in renovating, remanufacturing, reusing, and redistributing LED lighting materials.
  • Take advantage of, or advocate for, financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LED lighting.
  • Advocate for regulations to phase out and replace energy-inefficient lighting sources with LEDs.
  • Advocate for production standards and labeling for LEDs.
  • Call for regulations that encourage sufficient lighting to limit the overuse of LEDs (or rebound effects).
  • Start demonstration projects to promote LED lighting.
  • Help develop, support, or administer a certification program for LED lighting.
  • Create national catalogs of LED manufacturers, suppliers, and retailers.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Investors
  • Retrofit existing operations for LEDs, replace inefficient bulbs, and purchase only LEDs going forward.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LED lighting.
  • Invest in LED manufacturers, supply chains, and supportive industries.
  • Support research and development to improve the efficiency and cost of LEDs.
  • Invest in LED companies.
  • Fund companies that provide retrofitting services (energy service companies).
  • Invest in businesses dedicated to advancing LED use.
  • Ensure portfolio companies do not produce or support non-LED lighting supply chains.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Retrofit existing operations for LEDs, replace inefficient bulbs, and purchase only LEDs going forward.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LED lighting.
  • Provide financing such as low-interest loans, grants, and micro-grants to help accelerate LED adoption.
  • Fund companies that provide retrofitting services (energy service companies).
  • Advocate for regulations to phase out energy-inefficient lighting sources and replace them with LEDs.
  • Call for regulations that encourage sufficient lighting to limit the overuse of LEDs (or rebound effects).
  • Start demonstration projects to promote LED lighting.
  • Help develop, support, or administer a certification program for LED lighting.
  • Create national catalogs of LED manufacturers, suppliers, and retailers.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Retrofit buildings for LED lighting, replace inefficient bulbs, and purchase only LEDs going forward.
  • Help create positive perceptions of LED lighting by highlighting your personal usage, cost and energy savings, and emissions reductions.
  • Help develop circular supply chains in renovating, remanufacturing, reusing, and redistributing materials.
  • Take advantage of, or advocate for, financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LED lighting.
  • Advocate for regulations to phase out energy-inefficient lighting sources and replace them with LEDs.
  • Advocate for LED standards.
  • Advocate for regulations that encourage sufficient lighting and guard against overuse of LEDs (or rebound effects).
  • Start demonstration projects to promote LED lighting.
  • Help develop, support, or administer a certification program for LED lighting.
  • Create national catalogs of LED manufacturers, suppliers, and retailers.
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Develop circular supply chains in renovating, remanufacturing, reusing, and redistributing materials.
  • Improve the efficiency and cost of LEDs.
  • Improve LED lighting to imitate familiar lighting, offer customers settings, and augment color rendering.
  • Improve self-service of LEDs by reducing obstacles to installation and ensuring LEDs can be replaced individually.
  • Help develop standards for LEDs.
  • Create feedback mechanisms, such as apps that alert users to real-time benefits such as energy and cost savings.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Retrofit for LEDs, replace inefficient bulbs, and purchase only LEDs going forward.
  • Help create positive perceptions of LED lighting by highlighting your personal usage, cost and energy savings, and emissions reductions.
  • Help develop circular supply chains in renovating, remanufacturing, reusing, and redistributing materials.
  • Take advantage of or advocate for financial incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and grants to facilitate the transition to LED lighting.
  • Advocate for regulations to phase out and replace energy-inefficient lighting sources with LEDs.
  • Advocate for LED standards.
  • Advocate for regulations that encourage sufficient lighting to limit the overuse of LEDs (or rebound effects).
  • Join, support, or create educational programs that raise public awareness about the cost savings and energy-efficiency gains associated with LEDs.

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions from electricity generation: High

Using LEDs significantly minimizes the electricity required to light buildings, thereby reducing GHG emissions from electricity generation. Many countries are phasing out other lighting sources to reduce GHG emissions (Lane, 2023).

The IEA reported that global adoption of LEDs drove a nearly 30% reduction in annual electricity consumption for lighting in homes between 2010 and 2022 (Lane, 2023). Hasan et al. (2025) indicated that LEDs could reduce the lighting energy usage of buildings (and their resulting GHG emissions) in Bangladesh by 50%. Periyannan et al. (2023) recorded significant electricity savings after evaluating the impact of retrofitting hotels in Sri Lanka with LEDs. Forastiere et al. (2024)’s analysis of the retail buildings in Italy showed an 11% reduction in energy consumption from replacing other lamps with LEDs. Booysen et al., (2021) also achieved significant energy reduction with lighting retrofits in South African educational buildings.

The results presented in this document summarize findings from six original studies and three public sector/multilateral agency reports, which collectively reflect current evidence both globally and from six countries on four different continents. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

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Updated Date

Deploy District Cooling

Submitted by Drawdown Admin on
Sector
Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Enhance Efficiency
Image
A large district cooling facility
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

Deploying district cooling is the process of connecting multiple buildings in a dense area to a single, highly efficient source of cooling. The increased energy efficiency and reduction in use of high global warming potential refrigerants can translate into substantial emissions reductions and lower operating expenses. District cooling systems that integrate cool thermal storage have the potential to significantly reduce electricity demand during peaks when demand for cooling can strain electricity grids. However, the high upfront cost, long-term planning, and large number of stakeholders involved make this a challenging solution, especially in low- and middle-income countries where new demand for cooling is growing. Lack of publicly available data also makes this potential solution difficult to explore in greater depth. Based on our assessment, we will “Keep Watching” this potential solution.

Description for Social and Search
District cooling systems that integrate cool thermal storage have the potential to significantly reduce electricity demand during peaks.
Overview

What is our assessment?

Based on our analysis, deploying district cooling is a potentially impactful option for reducing emissions from buildings as demand for cooling continues to grow. However, upfront cost and project complexity are major barriers to deployment, and a lack of data is a barrier to deeper analysis. This potential solution is therefore classified as “Keep Watching.”

Plausible Could it work? Yes
Ready Is it ready? Yes
Evidence Are there data to evaluate it? No
Effective Does it consistently work? Yes
Impact Is it big enough to matter? Yes
Risk Is it risky or harmful? No
Cost Is it cheap? No

What is it?

District cooling consists of a centralized cooling system that distributes chilled water to multiple buildings through a network of insulated underground pipes. The cooled water absorbs heat from the buildings, replacing the need for air conditioners or chillers in each building. District cooling can produce cooled water from a variety of renewable sources, such as renewable electricity, solar cooling, and natural cooling sources, including seawater, lakewater, rivers, and groundwater. It can even use waste heat from industry to generate cooling. Many systems include thermal energy storage facilities where frozen water, cold water, or phase change materials are cooled when electricity prices are low for use during peak hours to save costs and reduce strain on the electricity grid. District cooling is best applied to high-density areas and can be combined with district heating to provide year-round conditioning. 

Does it work?

When district cooling replaces conventional standalone systems in residential and commercial buildings, it can reduce emissions through two main mechanisms. First, many district cooling systems exchange heat with natural sources of cooling such as oceans, deep lakes, and rivers, a process that can be many times more energy efficient than conventional cooling systems. This results in reduced energy use and reduced emissions from the electricity used to operate the system. Second, district cooling systems can reduce the use of refrigerants with high global warming potentials, which can leak at all stages of a cooling system’s lifespan. When replacing standalone systems, district cooling can significantly reduce the total volume of refrigerants used. In addition, some district cooling systems do not use any refrigerants at all (e.g., exchanging heat with ocean or deep lake water), and many are able to use refrigerants with low global warming potentials. For instance, the Zuidas International Business Hub in the Netherlands adopted a district cooling system that uses lake cooling combined with chillers, reducing emissions by 75% compared to conventional cooling systems. 

Why are we excited?

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global carbon emissions from cooling buildings reached 1.02 Gt CO₂‑eq in 2022. The majority of emissions associated with cooling are from standalone systems such as window air conditioners and chillers that serve a single building. District cooling systems are relatively rare at this time, with most capacity found in the United States and the Gulf Arab States. While existing district cooling systems can be made less emitting, there may be greater potential for new systems because demand for cooling is increasing by ~4%/yr as global temperatures rise and as standards of living improve in regions that experience high temperatures. This is raising concerns about the new electricity generating capacity needed when demand peaks on very hot days. District cooling systems can reduce overall energy use for cooling relative to standalone systems, and when paired with cool thermal storage, can significantly reduce demand during peak hours and on hot days. Building owners can enjoy less maintenance costs, more reliable cooling, and increased floor space when district cooling systems replace bulkier standalone cooling systems. In dense areas with good access to natural or low-cost cooling sources, district cooling systems can cost less to operate and offer lifetime savings despite the higher upfront costs. 

Why are we concerned?

Deploying district cooling systems has high upfront costs and requires extensive planning and coordination among a wide range of stakeholders. These projects can face challenges in getting financing due to a lack of confidence for both investors and customers, uncertainty about future loads, and regulatory barriers. These can be especially challenging in low- and middle-income countries where demand for cooling is growing rapidly. Many buildings are likely to invest in standalone systems in the near term, locking them into alternatives and weakening the business case for district systems in the area. Meanwhile, the full potential is difficult to assess due to a lack of data on district cooling systems globally.

Al-Nini, A., Ya, H. H., Al-Mahbashi, N., & Hussin, H. (2023). A Review on Green Cooling: Exploring the Benefits of Sustainable Energy-Powered District Cooling with Thermal Energy Storage. Sustainability, 15(6), 5433. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065433  

Delmastro, C., Martinez-Gordon, R., Lane, K., Voswinkel, F., Chen, O., & Sloots, N. (2023). Space cooling. IEA. Link to source: https://www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings/space-cooling  

Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. (2020). Primer for space cooling (Knowledge Series). World Bank. Link to source: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/131281601358070522/pdf/Primer-for-Space-Cooling.pdf 

Eveloy, V., & Ayou, D. S. (2019). Sustainable District Cooling Systems: Status, Challenges, and Future Opportunities, with Emphasis on Cooling-Dominated Regions. Energies, 12(2), 235. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/en12020235  

IEA. (2018). The future of cooling: Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning. Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/0bb45525-277f-4c9c-8d0c-9c0cb5e7d525/The_Future_of_Cooling.pdf  

IEA District Heating and Cooling. (2019). Sustainable district cooling guidelines. International Energy Agency. Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a5da464f-8310-4e0d-8385-0d3647b46e30/2020_IEA_DHC_Sustainable_District_Cooling_Guidelines_new_design.pdf  

International district energy association. (2008). District cooling best practice guide, first edition. Link to source: https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/DISTRICTENERGY/998638d1-8c22-4b53-960c-286248642360/UploadedImages/Conferences/District_Cooling_Best_Practice_Guide.pdf  

Lienard, V. (n.d.). How can we cool our cities? Euroheat and Power. Retrieved August 18, 2025, from Link to source: https://energy-cities.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/District-cooling_Euro-Heat-and-Power.pdf  

Voswinkel, F., Senat, D., Valle, N. D., D’Angiolini, G., & Callioni, F. (2025, July 28). Staying cool without overheating the energy system. IEA. Link to source: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/staying-cool-without-overheating-the-energy-system  

Werner, S. (2017). International review of district heating and cooling. Energy, 137, 617–631. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.04.045  

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

Internal Reviewers

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
Action Word
Deploy
Solution Title
District Cooling
Classification
Keep Watching
Updated Date

Use Heat Pumps

Submitted by Drawdown Admin on
Sector
Buildings & Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Enhance Efficiency Shift Energy Sources
Image
Heat pumps
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

Heat pumps use electricity to efficiently move heat from one place to another. This solution focuses on the replacement of fossil fuel–based heating systems with electric heat pumps. Heat pumps are remarkably efficient because they collect heat from the outside air, ground, or water using a refrigerant and use a pump to move the heat into buildings to keep them warm in colder months. Heat pumps typically replace heating systems such as boilers, furnaces, and electric resistance heaters. Many will also replace air conditioners, because the same pump can move heat out of a building in warmer months. 

Heat stress
Income & work,Health
Description for Social and Search
Heat pumps are a Highly Recommended climate solution. They replace heating systems that burn fossil fuels; many can also provide cooling in hotter months.
Overview

Heat pumps use a refrigerant cycle to move heat. When the liquid refrigerant enters a low pressure environment, it absorbs heat from the surrounding air (air-source heat pumps), water, or ground (ground-source heat pumps) as it evaporates. When the refrigerant vapor is compressed, it condenses back into a liquid, releasing the stored heat into the building. By passing the refrigerant through this cycle, a heat pump can move heat from outside to inside a building. 

Absorbing heat from the outside gets more difficult as temperatures drop. However, modern cold-climate heat pumps are designed to work effectively at temperatures approaching –30 °C (–22 °F) (Gibb et al., 2023). The freezer in your home uses the same technology, moving heat out of the cold box into the warm room to keep your food frozen. In most systems, the refrigerant cycle in a heat pump can be reversed in warmer months, moving heat out of a building to ensure its occupants are comfortable year-round. 

Heat pumps are very efficient at using electricity for heating. This is because they move heat rather than generating heat (e.g., by combustion). For example, a heat pump may have a seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP) of 3, meaning it can move an average of three units of heat energy for every unit of electrical energy that it consumes. Conventional combustion and electric resistance heaters cannot produce more than one unit of heat energy for every unit of fuel energy or electrical energy provided. 

Heat pump systems may be all-electric or hybrid, where a secondary fossil fuel-based heating system takes over in colder weather. 

A heat pump’s potential to reduce GHG emissions depends on the heating source it replaces and the emissions intensity of the electricity used to run it. When heat pumps replace fossil fuel-based heating, they displace the GHG emissions – primarily CO₂ – generated when the fuel is burned. When replacing electric resistance heaters, heat pumps reduce the GHG emissions from the electricity to power the system because heat pumps are much more energy efficient. As electrical grids decarbonize, the GHG emissions from operating heat pumps will decrease. 

All-electric heat pumps provide the most climate benefit because they can be powered with clean energy, but hybrid heat pumps also play an important emissions-reduction role. Hybrids consist of a smaller electric heat pump system that switches to fuel-based heating systems in colder weather. They may be attractive due to lower up-front costs and because they have lower peak power demand on cold days, but hybrids also have a smaller emissions impact. Our cost and emissions analyses assumed all-electric air-source heat pumps, while the data used in the adoption analysis included all types of heat pumps with the expectation that all-electric versions will dominate in the longer term. 

In this analysis, we calculated effectiveness and cost outcomes from specific countries with high heat-pump adoption (European countries, Canada, the United States, Japan, and China) to avoid comparing research studies that use different assumptions. The analysis used global assumptions for heating system efficiency: 90% for fueled systems (International Gas Union, 2019), 100% for electric resistance (U.S. Department of Energy [U.S. DOE], n.d.), and SCOP of 3 for heat pumps (Crownhart, 2023). We also assumed all existing fueled systems use natural gas, which is currently the dominant fossil fuel used for space heating globally (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2023b). The analysis did not include emissions or costs from cooling but did assume the heat pump is replacing both a heating and cooling system. 

The cost and effectiveness analyses focused on residential heating systems due to availability of data and also because large variations in the cost and size of commercial systems make it more challenging to estimate their global impacts. Commercial heating systems are typically larger than residential systems, and their emissions impacts are expected to be proportionally greater per unit. Cost savings may be different due the greater complexity of heating and cooling systems (Tejani & Toshniwal, 2023). Available data on heat pump adoption, on the other hand, typically include both residential and commercial units. Our adoption analysis therefore included both residential and commercial buildings, with greater adoption assumed in the residential sector. 

Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute. (2025). AHRI releases November 2024 U.S. heating and cooling equipment shipment data. Link to source: https://www.ahrinet.org/sites/default/files/Stat%20Release%20Nov%2024/November%202024%20Statistical%20Release.pdf 

Asahi, T. (2023, July 3). The role of heat pumps toward decarbonization [PowerPoint slides]. Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association. Link to source: https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/relations/file/2023_July_OEWG45_JRAIA_side_event_Presentation_4.pdf 

Benz, S. A., & Burney, J. A. (2021). Widespread race and class disparities in surface urban heat extremes across the United States. Earth’s Future, 9(7), Article e2021EF002016. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002016 

Bloess, A., Schill, W.-P., & Zerrahn, A. (2018). Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials. Applied Energy, 212, 1611–1626. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.12.073 

Canadian Climate Institute. (2023). Heat pumps pay off [Report]. Link to source: https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Heat-Pumps-Pay-Off-Unlocking-lower-cost-heating-and-cooling-in-Canada-Canadian-Climate-Institute.pdf 

Carella, A., & D’Orazio, A. (2021). The heat pumps for better urban air quality. Sustainable Cities and Society, 75, Article 103314. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103314 

City of Vancouver. (n.d.). Climate change adaptation strategy [Report]. Retrieved September 2, 2025, from Link to source: https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/vancouver-climate-change-adaptation-strategy-2024-25.pdf 

Congedo, P. M., Baglivo, C., D’Agostino, D., & Mazzeo, D. (2023). The impact of climate change on air source heat pumps. Energy Conversion and Management, 276, Article 116554. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2022.116554 

Cooper, S. J. G., Hammond, G. P., McManus, M. C., & Pudjianto, D. (2016). Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation. IET Renewable Power Generation, 10(3), 380–387. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0127 

Crownhart, C. (2023, February 14). Everything you need to know about the wild world of heat pumps. MIT Technology Review. Link to source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/02/14/1068582/everything-you-need-to-know-about-heat-pumps/ 

Davis, L. W., & Hausman, C. (2022). Who will pay for legacy utility costs? Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 9(6), 1047-1085. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1086/719793 

European Commission. (2022). REPowerEU: Joint European action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy. Link to source: https://build-up.ec.europa.eu/en/resources-and-tools/publications/repowereu-joint-european-action-more-affordable-secure-and 

European Heat Pump Association. (2024, February 27). Heat pump sales fall by 5% while EU delays action. Link to source: https://www.ehpa.org/news-and-resources/news/heat-pump-sales-fall-by-5-while-eu-delays-action/ 

Gaur, A. S., Fitiwi, D. Z., & Curtis, J. (2021). Heat pumps and our low-carbon future: A comprehensive review. Energy Research & Social Science, 71, Article 101764. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101764 

Gibb, D., Rosenow, J., Lowes, R., & Hewitt, N. J. (2023). Coming in from the cold: Heat pump efficiency at low temperatures. Joule, 7(9), 1939–1942. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.08.005 

Global Petrol Prices. (2024). Retail energy price data. Retrieved Feb 2, 2024, from Link to source: https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/ 

Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (Ed.). (2023). Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change. Working group III contribution to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926 

International Energy Agency. (2020). Sustainable recovery—World energy outlook special report (revised version). Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c3de5e13-26e8-4e52-8a67-b97aba17f0a2/Sustainable_Recovery.pdf 

International Energy Agency. (2022). The future of heat pumps. Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4713780d-c0ae-4686-8c9b-29e782452695/TheFutureofHeatPumps.pdf 

International Energy Agency. (2023a). Net zero roadmap: A global pathway to keep the 1.5 °C goal in reach—2023 update (revised version). Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/8ad619b9-17aa-473d-8a2f-4b90846f5c19/NetZeroRoadmap_AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach-2023Update.pdf 

International Energy Agency. (2023b, June 15). Buildings-related energy demand for heating and share by fuel in the Net Zero Scenario 2022-2030. Link to source: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/buildings-related-energy-demand-for-heating-and-share-by-fuel-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2022-2030 

International Energy Agency. (2024). Clean energy market monitor. Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d718c314-c916-47c9-a368-9f8bb38fd9d0/CleanEnergyMarketMonitorMarch2024.pdf 

International Energy Agency. (2025). Electricity 2025 (revised version). Link to source: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/0f028d5f-26b1-47ca-ad2a-5ca3103d070a/Electricity2025.pdf 

International Gas Union. (2019). Global gas insights 2019 gas & efficiency. Link to source: https://www.igu.org/advocacy/graphics-data/ggi-energy-efficiency 

International Renewable Energy Agency. (2022). Renewable solutions in end-uses: Heat pump costs and markets [Report]. Link to source: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Nov/IRENA_Heat_Pumps_Costs_Markets_2022.pdf 

International Renewable Energy Agency. (2024). World energy transitions outlook 2024: 1.5°C pathway [Report]. Link to source: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2024/Nov/IRENA_World_energy_transitions_outlook_2024.pdf 

Jakob, M., Reiter, U., Krishnan, S., Louwen, A., & Junginger, M. (2020). Chapter 11 - Heating and cooling in the built environment. In M. Junginger & A. Louwen (Eds.), Technological learning in the transition to a low-carbon energy system (pp. 189–219). Academic Press. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818762-3.00011-X  

Knobloch, F., Hanssen, S. V., Lam, A., Pollitt, H., Salas, P., Chewpreecha, U., Huijbregts, M. A. J., & Mercure, J.-F. (2020). Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time. Nature Sustainability, 3(6), 437–447. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0488-7 

Malmquist, A., Hjerpe, M., Glaas, E., Karlsson-Larsson, H., & Lassi, T. (2022). Elderly people’s perceptions of heat stress and adaptation to heat: An interview study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(7), Article 3775. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19073775 

Mattiuzzi, C., & Lippi, G. (2020). Worldwide epidemiology of carbon monoxide poisoning. Human & Experimental Toxicology, 39(4), 387-392. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1177/0960327119891214 

McDiarmid, H. (2023). An analysis of the impacts of all-electric heat pumps and peak mitigation technologies on peak power demand in Ontario [Report]. Ontario Clean Air Alliance. Link to source: https://www.cleanairalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Heat-Pump-Peak-Report-ONLINE-dec-11.pdf 

McDiarmid, H., & Parker, P. (2024). Retrofitting homes in Ontario entails significant embodied emissions: New policies needed. Climate Policy, 25(3), 388–400. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2390520 

Renaldi, R., Hall, R., Jamasb, T., & Roskilly, A. P. (2021). Experience rates of low-carbon domestic heating technologies in the United Kingdom. Energy Policy, 156, Article 112387. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112387 

Romanello, M., Walawender, M., Hsu, S.-C., Moskeland, A., Palmeiro-Silva, Y., Scamman, D., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Angelova, D., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Basart, S., Beagley, J., Beggs, P. J., Blanco-Villafuerte, L., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J. D., Chicmana-Zapata, V., … Costello, A. (2024). The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Facing record-breaking threats from delayed action. The Lancet, 404(10465), 1847–1896. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01822-1 

Sandoval, N., Harris, C., Reyna, J. L., Fontanini, A. D., Liu, L., Stenger, K., White, P. R., & Landis, A. E. (2024). Achieving equitable space heating electrification: A case study of Los Angeles. Energy and Buildings, 317, Article 114422. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2024.114422 

Sovacool, B. K., Evensen, D., Kwan, T. A., & Petit, V. (2023). Building a green future: Examining the job creation potential of electricity, heating, and storage in low-carbon buildings. The Electricity Journal, 36(5), Article 107274. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107274 

Tejani, A., & Toshniwal, V. (2023). Differential energy consumption patterns of HVAC systems in residential and commercial structures: A comparative study. International Journal of Advancements in Science & Technology, 1(3), 47–58. 

U.S. Department of Energy. (2022). Residential cold-climate heat pump technology challenge. Link to source: https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/articles/residential-cold-climate-heat-pump-technology-challenge-fact-sheet 

U.S. Department of Energy. (n.d.). Electric resistance heating. Retrieved September 2, 2025, from Link to source: https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/electric-resistance-heating 

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2023). Updated buildings sector appliance and equipment costs and efficiencies [Report]. Link to source: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf 

Van Someren, C., Visser, M., & Slootweg, H. (2021). Impacts of electric heat pumps and rooftop solar panels on residential electricity distribution grids. 2021 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT Europe), 01–06. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1109/ISGTEurope52324.2021.9640090 

Wilson, E. J. H., Munankarmi, P., Less, B. D., Reyna, J. L., & Rothgeb, S. (2024). Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States. Joule, 8(4), 1000–1035. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.01.022 

Zahiri, S., & Gupta, R. (2023). Examining the risk of summertime overheating in UK social housing dwellings retrofitted with heat pumps. Atmosphere, 14(11), Article 1617. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111617 

Zhang, Q., Zhang, L., Nie, J., & Li, Y. (2017). Techno-economic analysis of air source heat pump applied for space heating in northern China. Applied Energy, 207, 533–542. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.06.083 

Zhou, M., Liu, H., Peng, L., Qin, Y., Chen, D., Zhang, L., & Mauzerall, D. L. (2022). Environmental benefits and household costs of clean heating options in northern China. Nature Sustainability, 5(4), 329–338. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00837-w 

Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Stephen Agyeman, Ph.D.

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Sarah Gleeson, Ph.D.

  • Yusuf Jameel, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Jason Lam

  • Cameron Roberts, Ph.D.

  • Alex Sweeney

  • Eric Wilczynski

Internal Reviewers

  • Aiyana Bodi

  • Hannah Henkin

  • Jason Lam

  • Zoltan Nagy, Ph.D.

  • Ted Otte

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Our analysis showed that each all-electric residential heat pump for space heating reduces emissions by an average of 0.95 t CO₂‑eq /heat pump system/yr (20-yr and 100-yr basis, Table 1). 

Heat pumps reduce emissions by reducing the amount of fossil fuels burned for space heating or by reducing the use of less efficient electric resistance heating. Operating a heat pump generates no on-site emissions except refrigerant leaks, which are addressed by the Improve Refrigerant Management solution. Our analysis included the emissions from the electricity used to power heat pumps. Thus, the emissions reduction from heat pump adoption is expected to improve as electricity generation incorporates more renewable energy (Knobloch et al., 2020). 

There are significant regional differences in heat pump effectiveness due to the electricity mix, climate, and types of heating systems used today (Knobloch et al., 2020). The global average is weighted based on regional heating requirements and existing heating technologies. 

We did not quantify the reduction in pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter, which are released when fossil fuels are burned for space heating. We also refrained from estimating the global warming impacts of refrigerant leaks associated with the use of heat pumps, which is addressed by our Improve Refrigerant Management solution, or natural gas leaks associated with the use of fossil fuels for heating. 

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Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions from space heating.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq/heat pump system/yr, 100-yr basis

Mean 0.95
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Cost

A residential air-source heat pump has a mean initial installed cost of US$6,800 and an estimated US$540/yr operational cost for heating. Over a 15-year lifespan, this results in a net cost of US$990/yr. A heat pump generally replaces both a heating and cooling system with a combined mean installed cost of US$5,300. Operating a baseline heating system costs US$830/yr (operational cooling cost was not included in this analysis). Over a 15-year lifespan, the baseline case has a net cost of US$1,180/yr. This results in a net US$190 savings for households that switch to a heat pump. This translates to US$200 savings/t CO₂‑eq reduced (Table 2).

These values include the average annual cost to operate the equipment for heating and the annualized up-front cost of a heat pump relative to both a heating and cooling system that it replaces. There can be significant variability in the up-front cost of equipment based on the type of heat pump installed, the size of the building, and the climate in which it is designed to operate. We assumed the cost to operate the equipment for cooling to be the same with heat pumps and the air conditioners they replace. 

There are significant regional differences in the operational cost of heating systems due to climate, utility rates, and the heating systems in use today. The global average outcomes described here are weighted averages from Europe, Canada, the United States, China, and Japan based on regional heating requirements and existing heating technologies. 

Utility cost estimates are from June 2023 (Global Petrol Prices, 2024) and may vary substantially over time due to factors such as volatile fossil fuel prices, changing carbon prices, and heat pump incentives. Additional installation costs, such as upgrades to electrical systems, ductwork, or radiators, are not included. 

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Table 2. Cost per unit climate impact. Negative values reflect cost savings.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Mean –200
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Learning Curve

Insufficient data exist to quantify the learning curve for heat pumps. 

The cost of installing a heat pump includes both equipment costs and the labor cost of installation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration ([U.S. EIA] 2023), retail equipment costs are 60–80% of the total installed cost of residential air-source heat pumps (central and ductless). 

Equipment costs can decrease with economies of scale and as local markets mature, but may be confounded by technological advances as well as equipment and/or refrigerant regulations that can also increase costs (IEA, 2022). European estimated learning rates for heat pump equipment costs range from 3.3% for ground-source heat pumps (Renaldi et al., 2021) to 18% for air-source heat pumps (Jakob et al., 2020). Ease and cost of installation is a research and development goal for manufacturers (IEA, 2022). 

The installed cost is also affected by rising labor costs and projected labor shortages (IEA, 2022). Renaldi et al. (2021) showed negative learning rates for the total installed costs in the United Kingdom due to increasing installation costs: –2.3% and –0.8% for air-source and ground-source heat pumps, respectively.

Heat pump manufacturer efforts to improve the performance of the technology may impact learning curves as well. In North America, the Residential Heat Pump Technology Challenge has supported the development of heat pumps with improved cold-climate performance (U.S. DOE, 2022). 

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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Use Heat Pumps is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

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Caveats

Heat pumps can increase demand for electricity and can therefore increase demand for fossil fuel-based power generation. In areas where power generation relies heavily on fossil fuels, heat pumps may generate more emissions than gas heating systems. As the electricity sector adopts more renewables and phases out fossil fuel-based generation, the emissions impact of heat pumps will decrease. Once a building has been designed or retrofitted to accommodate a heat pump it is likely that new heat pumps will be installed at the end of equipment life, perpetuating the benefit.

Efforts are underway to retrofit buildings by improving insulation, air-sealing, and upgrading windows. When done alongside heat pump adoption, retrofits can reduce the size of heat pump needed and increase total energy, emissions, and cost savings. 

As heat pump adoption grows, so too will the manufacture of refrigerants, some of which have high global warming potentials when they escape to the atmosphere. See Deploy Alternative Refrigerants and Improve Refrigerant Management solutions for more on accelerating change in this sector.

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Current Adoption

Our analysis suggests that 130 million heat pumps for heating are currently in operation primarily based on data in Europe, Canada, the United States, China, and Japan (Table 3). These include both all-electric heat pumps and hybrid heat pumps. The IEA (2023a) estimated that 12% of global space heating demand was met by heat pumps in 2022. 

This value is based on market reports and national data sources plus IEA (2022) estimates of total GW of installed capacity. To convert installed capacity to the number of heat pumps, we used the median from the range of suggested average capacities (7.5 kW for Europe and North America, 4 kW in Japan and China, 5 kW global average). In Japan, where heat pump units typically heat only one room, we assumed 2.4 units per heat pump (International Renewable Energy Agency [IRENA], 2022).

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Table 3. Current heat pump adoption level (2020–2022).

Unit: Heat pump systems in operation

Mean 130,000,000
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Adoption Trend

Our estimates put the median adoption trend at 17 million new all-electric and hybrid heat pumps in operation per year (Table 4). This analysis is based on product shipment data (used as a proxy for installed heat pumps), market reports, national statistics, and IEA data for growth in installed capacity. For the IEA data (2010–2023), we assumed a global average of 5 kW of heat capacity per heat pump unit (IEA, 2024).

Shipment and market analysis reports consistently show growing markets for heat pumps in much of the world (Asahi, 2023; European Heat Pump Association, 2024; IEA, 2024). In the United States, shipments of heat pumps have outnumbered gas furnaces since at least 2022 (Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, 2025).

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Table 4. Heat pump adoption trend (2010–2023).

Unit: Heat pump systems in operation/yr

25th percentile 12,000,000
Mean 15,000,000
Median (50th percentile) 17,000,000
75th percentile 18,000,000
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Adoption Ceiling

Our adoption ceiling is set at 1.200 billion heat pumps for space heating by 2050 (Table 5), most of which are expected to be in residential buildings. This is based on the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap projection that heat pumps will represent 6,500 GW of heating capacity globally by 2050, covering 55% of space heating demand (IEA, 2023a). Our adoption ceiling assumes all-electric heat pumps cover all space heating demand. 

We assumed that average heat pump sizes (capacities) will increase over time as heat pumps cover a greater portion of a building’s heating load and as more commercial buildings with larger heating loads install heat pumps. Using a global average of 10 kW per heat pump, the IEA projections imply 650 million heat pumps will be in operation by 2050 with the technical adoption ceiling for 1,200 million heat pumps if all heating demand were met by heat pumps.

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Table 5. Heat pump adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption level.

Unit: Heat pump systems in operation by 2050

Mean 1,200,000,000
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Achievable Adoption

We estimate the achievable range for heat pump adoption to be 600–960 million heat pumps in operation by 2050 (Table 6).

Most existing space heating systems will be replaced at least once between now and 2050 because this equipment typically has lifetimes of 15–30 years (U.S. EIA, 2023). Policies that encourage high efficiency heat pumps alongside insulation upgrades have the potential to provide lifetime savings, greater comfort, and energy efficiency benefits (Wilson et al., 2024). Given the available timelines and potential benefits, near full adoption is technically feasible. 

We have set the Achievable – High heat pump adoption at 80% of the adoption ceiling to account for systems that are difficult to electrify due to very cold climates, policy, economic barriers, and grid constraints. This high achievable value assumes that some systems may be replaced before their end of life to meet climate and/or financial goals. 

We have set the Achievable – Low heat pump adoption at 50% of the adoption ceiling. This is roughly consistent with the current adoption trend continuing out to 2050. 

Our heat pump units adopted include both all-electric and hybrid heat pumps. This analysis assumes that hybrid heat pumps will become less common as fuels are phased out and that all-electric heat pumps will dominate by 2050. 

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Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: Heat pump systems installed

Current adoption 130,000,000
Achievable – low 600,000,000
Achievable – high 960,000,000
Adoption ceiling 1,200,000,000
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Our estimates show the global impact of existing heat pumps for space heating to be a reduction of 0.12 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100- and 20-yr basis) based on current adoption and today’s electricity grid emissions (Table 7). Because electricity grid emissions are decreasing for each kWh of electricity generated (IEA, 2025), the actual impact will be greater than our estimates when future electricity generation emissions are lower.

For the adoption ceiling, assuming heat pumps supply all of the IEA’s projected global heating demand in 2050 (IEA, 2023a), 1.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100- and 20-yr basis) could be avoided per year with today’s electricity grid emissions.

A high-end achievable target is 80% of the adoption ceiling, accounting for systems that might continue to use fossil fuels for heating due to factors such as cold climates, economic barriers, and grid constraints. This would result in avoiding 0.91 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100- and 20-yr basis) with today’s electricity grid emissions. 

A low-end achievable target is 50% of the adoption ceiling, roughly equivalent to heat pump adoption continuing at today’s rate. This would result in avoiding 0.57 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100- and 20-yr basis) with today’s electricity grid emissions. 

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Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of heat pump systems adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.12
Achievable – low 0.57
Achievable – high 0.91
Adoption ceiling 1.1
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Additional Benefits

Heat Stress

Heat waves and extreme heat are becoming increasingly significant factors of morbidity and mortality worldwide (Romanello et al., 2024). Some buildings that replace heating systems with heat pumps will gain access to cooling (Congedo et al., 2023; Wilson et al., 2024; Zhang et al., 2017). This can provide protection from heat stress in regions experiencing increasingly hotter summers (where air conditioning was not previously necessary) and for populations that are vulnerable to heat stress, such as the elderly (Malmquist et al., 2022). Some jurisdictions incentivize heat pumps for this reason. For example, the United Kingdom plans to install 600,000 heat pumps by 2028 (Zahiri & Gupta, 2023), and local climate adaptation plans in Canada recommend the installation of heat pumps to provide space cooling that can reduce morbidity and mortality during heat waves (Canadian Climate Institute, 2023; City of Vancouver, n.d.). Because exposure to extreme heat is disproportionately higher for minority communities – particularly in urban environments – access to cooling has important implications for environmental justice (Benz & Burney, 2021). 

Income and Work

Installing heat pumps can lead to greater household savings on electricity. Research has shown that across the United States, heat pumps can reduce electricity bills for 49 million homes with an average savings of US$350–600 per year, depending on the efficiency of the heat pump (Wilson et al., 2024). Wilson et al. (2024) found that higher efficiency heat pumps could be cost-effective for about 65 million households in the United States. Heat pumps also create jobs (Sovacool et al., 2023). In its post-COVID-19 recovery plan, the IEA (2020) estimated that every US$1 million investment in heat pumps could generate 9.1 new jobs and reduce 0.8 jobs in the fossil fuel industry. About half of the new jobs will be in manufacturing, with the remaining distributed between installation and maintenance.

Health

Burning fossil fuels for heating directly emits health-harming particulates and can generate carbon monoxide. Replacing fossil gas heating with heat pumps can reduce air pollution (Carella & D’Orazio, 2021) and contribute to improving health outcomes (Zhou et al., 2022). A study in China showed that as the power grid moves to incorporate renewable energy, the air quality and health benefits of heat pumps will increasingly outweigh the benefits of gas heaters (Zhou et al., 2022). The risk of carbon monoxide poisoning also decreases in buildings that switch from fuel-burning space heating to heat pumps. In buildings that burn fuels for applications such as space heating, carbon monoxide can pose serious health risks, including poisoning and death (Mattiuzzi & Lippi, 2020). 

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Risks

Heat pumps contain refrigerants that often have high global warming potentials. Refrigerant leaks can occur during installation, operation, and end of life (McDiarmid & Parker, 2024). As more heat pumps are adopted, there is a risk of increased emissions from refrigerant leaks during operation as well as refrigerant release at the end of equipment life. Alternate refrigerants with lower global warming potentials are being phased in due to an international agreement to reduce hydrofluorocarbons, including many refrigerants (Kigali Amendment). 

Higher rates of heat pump installation will require upscaling heat pump manufacturing and training, plus certification of skilled labor to install them. Skilled labor shortages are already creating bottlenecks for heat pump adoption in some countries, some of which can be met by reskilling other heating technicians (IEA, 2022).

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Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

Advancements in heat pump technology will support the development and adoption of heat pump technology for industrial applications.

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The increased adoption of heat pumps will increase the market for alternative refrigerants and refrigerant management.

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Competing

Heat pumps reduce the emissions from heating and cooling buildings. This reduces the effectiveness of technologies that reduce heating and/or cooling demands.

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Adoption of heat pumps for space heating is likely to generate seasonal peaks in power demand during cold days that may require building out extra generating capacity that decrease grid efficiency (Bloess et al., 2018). Heat pumps can compete with electric cars for power during peak times (Van Someren et al., 2021).

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Dashboard

Solution Basics

heat pump systems

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.95
units
Current 1.3×10⁸ 06.0×10⁸9.6×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.12 0.570.91
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-200
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

Enhanced grid infrastructure will be required to support widespread building electrification and the greater demand for electricity, especially on cold days when heat pumps are less efficient at moving heat (Cooper et al., 2016). Demand-side management, thermal storage, home batteries, bidirectional chargers, and greater adoption of ground-source heat pumps can all help to reduce this increased demand (Cooper et al., 2016; McDiarmid, 2023).

In general, heat pumps have higher up-front costs than do fueled alternatives but will save a building owner money over the lifetime of the system. This can create economic barriers to accessing the benefits of heat pumps, with low-income homeowners and renters who pay for their utilities being particularly vulnerable to being left behind in the transition (Sandoval et al., 2024). Equity advocates are also concerned that the cost of maintaining gas and other fossil fuel infrastructure may increasingly fall on lower-income building owners who struggle to afford the upfront cost of electrifying with heat pumps (Davis & Hausman, 2022). 

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°C day
015,275

Space heating demand

Heating degree days are a measure of total space heating demand to maintain an indoor temperature above 18 °C.

Fick, S.E. & Hijmans, R.J. (2017). WorldClim 2: new 1km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas (Version 2.1) [Data set]. International Journal of Climatology 37 (12): 4302-4315. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086

°C day
015,275

Space heating demand

Heating degree days are a measure of total space heating demand to maintain an indoor temperature above 18 °C.

Fick, S.E. & Hijmans, R.J. (2017). WorldClim 2: new 1km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas (Version 2.1) [Data set]. International Journal of Climatology 37 (12): 4302-4315. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086

Maps Introduction

In this solution, heat pumps replace space-heating options that rely on fossil fuels. This primarily applies to North America, Asia, and Europe. Limited data are available for some regions, so this analysis focuses on European countries, Canada, the United States, Japan and China. 

The effectiveness of heat pumps at reducing GHG emissions is influenced by the heating needs of the region and the generation mix of the electricity grid. Areas with higher heating needs will generally show greater emissions reduction because more energy is needed to keep buildings warm. However, this is partially offset because heat pumps are less energy efficient on colder days. The local electricity grid mix matters because heat pumps are powered by electricity. Given the same outside temperature, regions with a largely emissions-free grid (e.g., France or Canada) will have higher emissions impacts from heat pump adoption than areas where electricity is  largely generated from fossil fuels (e.g., China). The type of heat pumps (all-electric vs. hybrid) best suited to each region depends on technological and economic factors.

Action Word
Use
Solution Title
Heat Pumps
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Introduce zero-carbon ready building codes, clearly designating heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Incentivize purchases with grants, loans, or tax rebates.
  • Increasing training and support for heat pump installers.
  • Expand the electrical grid and increase renewable energy generation.
  • Streamline permitting processes.
  • Incentivize complementary solutions such as better insulation, thermal storage, and air sealing.
  • Institute a clean heat standard (similar to a renewable energy standard) with a well-defined implementation timeline.
  • Launch performance labels for heating technology.
  • Roll out new energy efficiency programs.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Commit to zero-carbon construction, clearly designating heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Increase the available workforce by encouraging trade organizations to promote career and workforce development programs.
  • Design heat pumps that are simpler, faster, and cheaper to install.
  • Educate customers on the benefits and train them on usage.
  • Connect with users and early adopters to understand and adapt to consumer sentiment.
  • Create appealing incentives and financing programs.
  • Partner with builders and developers to improve product adoption and increase market demand for heat pumps.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Commit to zero-carbon construction, clearly designating heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Deploy heat pumps in all owned and operated facilities.
  • Encourage building owners and managers to switch to heat pumps in leased facilities.
  • Promote the benefits of heat pumps and share government incentives with leased facilities and networks.
  • Encourage employees to reduce emissions at home by providing educational resources on the benefits of domestic heat pumps.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Advocate for zero-carbon construction and building codes that clearly designate heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Deploy heat pumps in owned and operated facilities.
  • Encourage building owners and managers to switch to heat pumps in leased facilities.
  • Educate businesses and communities on the benefits of installing heat pumps and any tax incentives in their region.
  • Advocate to policymakers for improved policies and incentives.
  • Educate community leaders on the need for adoption.

Further information:

Investors
  • Commit to only finance zero-carbon construction with clear requirements for heat pumps as the default for all new development investments.
  • Deploy capital to efforts that improve heat pump performance and reduce material, installation, and maintenance costs.
  • Explore investment opportunities that address supply chain concerns.
  • Consider investments that mitigate non-manufacturing barriers to scaling.
  • Finance heat pump installations via low-interest loans.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Directly distribute heat pumps, prioritizing locations where heat pumps maximize emissions reductions, and improve housing affordability.
  • Advocate for zero-carbon construction and building codes that clearly designate heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Fund R&D efforts and competitions to improve technology, reduce costs, and address supply chain concerns.
  • Support consumer advocacy and education campaigns on heat pumps and how to maximize regulatory incentives.
  • Support training or incentive programs for distributors and installers.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for zero-carbon construction and building codes that clearly designate heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Highlight the need to transition away from fossil-fuel-fired heating.
  • Educate the public on the benefits of heat pumps and how they work.
  • Provide case studies that present successes and lessons learned.
  • Increase consumer comfort by including heat pumps in communication content on topics such as home remodeling and construction, technology, health, self-sufficiency, and personal finance.
  • Provide up-to-date user information on available models.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Identify safe, cost-effective, and suitable alternative refrigerants.
  • Design systems that require less refrigerant.
  • Work to increase the longevity of heat pumps.
  • Improve heat pumps’ efficiency and capacity at low temperatures as well as their ability to deliver higher temperature heat.
  • Research external social factors critical to adoption.
  • Identify appropriate methods for recycling and disposing of heat pumps and responsibly recovering their refrigerant chemicals at the end of the product life cycle. 

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Install heat pumps when possible and encourage local heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) retailers and installers to sell services and equipment.
  • Increase consumer comfort by sharing your experience and tips for troubleshooting technologies.
  • Advocate for zero-carbon construction and building codes that clearly designate heat pumps as the default for all new buildings.
  • Build support networks for new users and connect to explore innovations.
  • Encourage your property management company, employers, and government officials to accelerate adoption. 

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions: High

Electric heat pumps are generally viewed as the primary strategy for reducing GHG emissions from buildings. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ([IPCC] 2023) noted that heat pumps drive electrification in buildings and help decrease emissions. The European Commission (2022) claimed that heat pumps are an essential way of decreasing reliance on gas in heating while increasing the use of renewable energy in the heating sector. The IEA (2022) reported that heat pumps powered by electricity generated with renewable energy “are the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating.” IRENA (2024) claimed heat pumps in buildings “will play a crucial role in reducing reliance on fossil fuels.” 

In one of the largest scientific reviews on the topic, Gaur et al. (2021) concluded that heat pumps “have the potential to play a substantial role in the transition to low carbon heating,” and noted that emissions impacts of heat pumps are dependent on the type of heat pump technology, their location, and the electricity grid mix. Knobloch et al. (2020) studied 59 world regions and found that electrification of the heating sector via heat pumps will reduce emissions in most world regions where they are adopted.

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 46 reports, reviews and meta-analyses and 13 original studies reflecting current evidence from 30 countries, primarily European countries, Canada, the United States, Japan, and China. We recognize this limited geographic and technology scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions and in the commercial sector.

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Updated Date

Improve Windows & Glass

Submitted by Drawdown Admin on
Sector
Buildings & Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Enhance Efficiency
Image
Building with many windows
Coming Soon
Off
Summary

We define the Improve Windows & Glass solution as reducing the heat transferred through typical windows used in residential and nonresidential buildings by improving the thermal insulation capacity of the glass. Windows typically constitute a small portion of a building envelope but account for a substantial portion of the heat transferred (gained or lost) between the indoor space and the external environment. Using double-glazed rather than single-glazed windows cuts GHG emissions by reducing the energy required to heat or cool a building’s interior and improves the thermal comfort of its occupants.

Income & work,Health
Air quality
Description for Social and Search
Improve Windows & Glass is a Highly Recommended climate solution. Upgrading single-glazed windows to double-glazing saves money, improves comfort, and cuts GHG emissions.
Overview

Windows represent 15–40% of a building's total envelope surface area (Shah et al., 2024). A significant amount of the heat transmitted through the building envelope occurs via windows (Basok et al., 2022; Cuce & Riffat, 2015), and the uncontrolled flow of heat due to poor thermal insulation capabilities of windows and glass can generally increase the energy required for heating or cooling indoor spaces by 30–50% (Arasteh et al., 2006; Balali et al., 2023; Gustavsen et al., 2011). Improving windows and glass helps reduce heat gain in warm climates and heat loss in cold climates, thereby reducing the energy required to thermally condition indoor spaces and cutting energy-related emissions while improving occupant comfort.

Operating buildings accounts for approximately 30% of global energy consumption (Delmastro & Chen, 2023). The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2023e) stated that heating indoor spaces accounted for more than 41 EJ of energy in 2022 (an equivalent of about 11,400 TWh). This energy is mainly fossil fuel–based (oil, natural gas, and coal), but also includes electricity, modern bioenergy, and solar thermal (IEA, 2023b; 2023e) (Figure 1). Space cooling is largely achieved through air conditioners. In 2022, cooling buildings used approximately 2,111 TWh (an equivalent of about 8 EJ) (IEA, 2023d; Ritchie, 2024). According to the IEA (2018), annual space-cooling energy consumption in 2016 (2,020 TWh) was more than three times its levels in 1990. Considering the mix of energy sources (IEA, 2023b), this solution potentially cuts CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions and reduces black carbon and F-gas refrigerant emissions from operating heating and cooling systems (Richardson, 2024; Pistochini et al., 2022).

Figure 1. Energy used in buildings globally largely originates from fossil fuel–based sources.

Source: International Energy Agency. (2023b, June 15). Energy consumption in buildings by fuel in the net zero scenario, 2010-2030. 

The properties of a window determine the rate of heat transfer (i.e., its thermal transmittance or U-value) and thus its efficacy at decreasing the flow of heat between the indoors and outdoors (Aguilar-Santana, 2020; Saint-Gobain, 2018). Window types such as double-glazed, double-glazed with low emissivity (low-e) coating, or triple-glazed (Figure 2) perform better than single-glazed windows due to their lower U-values (Aguilar-Santana et al., 2020; Li et al., 2023; Salazar et al., 2024). In more resourced countries or regions such as the United States, Canada, and the European Union, a minimum of double glazing is considered standard practice, accounting for a growing share of the number of windows installed or sold annually (Hermelink et al., 2017; Janssens, 2021). However, the minimum glazing U-value standards set by building energy regulations in most low- and middle-income countries, where the bulk of new construction occurs (IEA, 2023c), often do not mandate the use of better performing windows in buildings (Gaum, 2023). 

The Improve Windows and Glass solution assesses the impact of retrofitting single-glazed windows in the current (2022) global building stock, focusing on scaling up the use of double glazing as the minimum. Retrofitting extends the lifespan of building components and helps these buildings remain in use. The U-value of 2.7 W/m2K we used for double glazing during our analysis also includes other double pane window types with similar U-values such as secondary glazing where a second window is added to the outside of the existing one.

Figure 2. Multiple-glazed windows reduce heat transmission better than single glazed windows and so create less demand for GHG-producing fuels. Modified from Aguilar-Santana et al. (2020) and Moghaddam et al. (2023).

A description of different glazing types.

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International Energy Agency. (2023c, June 15). Global floor area and buildings energy intensity in the net zero scenario, 2010-2030. Link to source: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-floor-area-and-buildings-energy-intensity-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2010-2030

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Henry Igugu, Ph.D.

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Sarah Gleeson, Ph.D.

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

Each 1 m2 of single-glazed window glass in buildings that is upgraded to double glazing has the potential to cut GHG emissions by approximately 0.07 t CO₂‑eq/yr (20-yr and 100-yr basis).

To determine the solution’s effectiveness (Table 1), we evaluated the emissions cut from reducing space heating and space cooling. Since studies often capture different U-value ratings for similar window glass, we weighted the energy saved (kWh/yr) from improving the glass using consistent U-values for the baseline and solution (see Figure 2). Thereafter, we weighted the energy impact by the total area of glass substituted (m2) to determine the savings intensity (kWh/m2/yr) and multiplied the estimate by emission intensities of heating and cooling fuels based on the IEA’s world energy balances data (IEA, 2024).

This solution cuts CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions by reducing the amount of fossil fuels used for heating and for producing electricity used for cooling. The analysis includes studies from countries representative of heating-dominated and cooling-dominated climates such as the United States (Calautit et al., 2025) and Malaysia (Balasbaneh et al., 2022), respectively. Notably, the solution is also effective in other climates (Magraoui et al., 2025).

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Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /m2/yr, 100-yr basis

25th percentile 0.043
Mean 0.095
Median (50th percentile) 0.065
75th percentile 0.13
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Cost

Our estimate of the cost per unit climate impact (Table 2) indicates that replacing single-glazed windows with double-glazed windows in buildings globally results in considerable savings of approximately US$123/t CO₂‑eq.

We found that the solution’s initial cost varies considerably, from about US$31/m2 in Malaysia (Balasbaneh et al., 2022) to US$257–684/m2 in France (Harkouss et al., 2018), highlighting regional price differences that could affect adoption. Ultimately, we chose an initial cost of approximately US$144/m2 for double glazing. Using the cost of single glazing we found in studies from different regions (Aruta et al., 2025; Krarti & Ihm, 2016), our analysis determined a baseline initial cost of approximately US$35/m2. While the solution cost is more than four times the baseline, less energy is used for space heating or cooling, reducing the annual operating cost from US$23/m2 to approximately US$12/m2. After amortizing the initial cost over 30 years, the solution resulted in a net savings of US$8/m2/yr, compared with the baseline.

During our analysis, we normalized the initial cost by the baseline and solution U-value (see Figure 2) to ensure consistency. We assumed the initial cost includes the glass component alone, but some of our sources were ambiguous about the scope of the investment and may have also included frames and installation costs. To determine the cost per adoption unit, we weighted the amount of energy consumed for heating and cooling in each data source using the total area of windows upgraded in the respective case study buildings. The analysis does not include revenues because building owners typically do not generate any revenue from window glass installed. 

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Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis

Median -123
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Learning Curve

We found no definitive data on the solution’s learning rate. While the adoption of double glazing grows, some studies have reported rising cost of glass in recent periods (MLI Building Products, 2023). In an assessment of regional float glass price trends, Procurement Resource (n.d.) argued that rising material, energy, and labor costs amid other economic pressures are driving up the cost of glass. Since modern windows are often made using float glass (Asahi India Glass Ltd., 2025), the initial cost could become more expensive.

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Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Improve Windows and Glass is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere.

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Caveats

Our analysis for this solution focused on the U-value of the glass component alone. It did not include other parameters such as the material type of the window frames or coatings on windows, though these also impact space heating and cooling energy use (Owolabi et al., 2023). We ensured that the data used in our analysis aligned with our approach (i.e., indicated the impact of solely substituting double-glazed or better glass for single-glazed). Due to limited data, we assumed that current adoption in LMICs is 5%. The adoption scenarios and climate impact may be influenced if the actual percentage is higher or lower.

A window’s orientation impacts the solar heat gain. Thus, the influence of upgrading to double-glazing on heating or cooling loads is affected by window placement. We found limited data that incorporates orientation and did not account for this difference.

Recently, some studies have indicated concerns about the payback period of upgrading to double glazing for building owners (Calautit et al., 2025), especially in LMICs, where higher initial costs could be a barrier. Creative initiatives such as incentive schemes can improve the payback period (Aruta et al., 2025). 

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Current Adoption

To determine the current adoption of double-glazed windows, we first estimated the total amount of window glass installed in buildings by applying window-to-floor area ratios from studies to the currently existing 198.1 billion m2 residential and 54.6 billion m2 nonresidential building floor space (IEA, 2023f). This yielded approximately 23.3 billion m2 and 42.2 billion m2 of window glass installed in high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), respectively (IEA, 2023c). 

We found limited data for the proportion of minimum double-glazed windows in HICs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA, 2023) reported that 80 million housing units (65%) in the U.S. have double-glazed windows installed. Percentages reported for other countries include 88% of housing units in the United Kingdom (Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, 2023), 90% in Canada (Natural Resources Canada, n.d.), and 15% in Australia (Paarhammer, n.d.). Using these percentages, we estimated a 76% (median) solution adoption rate in HICs.

Since we found no definitive data for the solution’s adoption in LMICs, and considering a few LMICs have building energy codes that either mandate or encourage the use of higher performing windows (Gaum, 2023; Gaum & Laubscher, 2022), we assumed that double-glazed windows represent a conservative underestimate of 5%. 

All told, we estimate that as of 2022, installed double-glazed windows in buildings cover roughly 19.9 billion m2 globally (Table 3).

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Table 3. Current (2022) adoption level.

Unit: m2 windows minimum double-glazed

25th percentile 14,300,000,000
Mean 17,100,000,000
Median (50th percentile) 19,900,000,000
75th percentile 22,700,000,000
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Adoption Trend

According to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (2023), the percentage of UK homes that have double-glazed windows increased by 9% between 2012 and 2022. Similarly, adoption grew by about 6% in five years (2015–2020) in the United States (U.S. EIA, 2018). Using these countries as representatives, this growth translates to approximately 438–448 million m2 of double-glazed or better windows being added every year in HICs.

We found limited data for adoption trends in LMICs. Based on our assumption for the current adoption in LMICs, we assumed that the percentage adoption of double-glazed windows grew by 4% over 10 years (2012–2022). This assumption, which is likely a conservative underestimate, translates to an annual addition of about 178 million m2/yr of double glazing.

Based on these findings, we estimate that the adoption of double glazing or better windows has grown globally by nearly 622 million m2 annually (Table 4).

Historically, the bulk of the solution’s adoption has occurred in HICs. However, the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, IEA, and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) emphasize that adopting double-glazed windows is a necessary sustainability strategy for the building sector, especially in Africa and LMICs (GlobalABC/IEA/UNEP, 2020). This indicates considerable potential for scaling the solution, with 76% of the global building sector’s growth in the past 12 years occurring in LMICs (IEA, 2023f), where there has been less adoption of double glazing or better windows.

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Table 4. 2010–2022 adoption trend.

Unit: m2/yr

25th percentile 620,000,000
Mean 622,000,000
Median (50th percentile) 622,000,000
75th percentile 624,000,000
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Adoption Ceiling

We estimated an adoption ceiling (Table 5) of approximately 46.7 billion m2 of double-glazed windows globally. For this adoption scenario, 90% and 61% of window glass that existed in 2022 will be retrofitted to double-glazed or better by 2050 in buildings in HICs and buildings in LMICs, respectively.

In our analysis, we used the current double-glazed windows ratio of 90% in Canada (Natural Resources Canada, n.d) as a benchmark for the building sector’s adoption ceiling in HICs. For buildings in LMICs, we used the IEA’s recommended 2%/yr retrofit rate (IEA, 2022b) over 28 years (2022–2050). This estimated 56% growth was added to the current adoption of 5% to determine the region’s adoption ceiling. The analysis results in about 21 billion m2 and 26 billion m2 of double-glazed windows installed in buildings in HICs and LMICs, respectively.

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Table 5. Adoption ceiling.

Unit: m2 windows minimum double-glazed

Estimate 46,700,000,000
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Achievable Adoption

Our analysis estimated a low achievable adoption of approximately 32.9 billion m2 of double-glazed or better windows installed in buildings globally (Table 6). For this scenario, we estimate that the percentage of windows that were at minimum double-glazed as of 2022 in buildings in HICs (76%) and buildings in LMICs (5%) grows to 81% and 33%, respectively.

Under the high achievable scenario, 86% of window glass in buildings in HICs and 47% of window glass in buildings in LMICs is at minimum double-glazed. This translates to a total of nearly 40.0 billion m2 of double glazing or better installed by 2050.

The achievable adoption scenarios are largely driven by the growth that is possible in LMICs. We assumed a retrofit rate of 1%/yr for the Achievable – Low scenario, which is the current global retrofit rate in the building industry (IEA, 2022b); for Achievable – High, we used 1.5%/yr. We also assumed that the current (2022) building stock will still be in use by 2050.

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Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels.

Unit: m2 windows minimum double-glazed

Current adoption 19,900,000,000
Achievable – low 32,900,000,000
Achievable – high 40,000,000,000
Adoption ceiling 46,700,000,000
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The current adoption of double-glazed windows in buildings reduces global GHG emissions by approximately 1.3 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr on a 100-yr and 20-yr basis (Table 7). If the low achievable adoption scenario is reached, this solution could potentially cut about 2.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100-yr and 20-yr basis). The high achievable scenario would decrease global emissions 2.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr year (100-yr and 20-yr basis). We estimated that the adoption ceiling could avoid up to 3.0 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr of emissions on a 100-yr basis (3.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 20-yr basis).

This solution only accounts for the impact of retrofitting the building stock that exists as of 2022. However, the current global built floor area (252.7 billion m2) is projected to grow by an additional 183 billion m2, by 2050 (IEA, 2022a; 2023b). This means a possible addition of 1.6 billion m2 of new window glass every year, indicating that the potential for scaling the climate impact exists.

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Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 1.3
Achievable – low 2.1
Achievable – high 2.6
Adoption ceiling 3.0
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

While multi-glazed windows are often more of an initial investment than single-pane windows, improved performance of these windows is associated with more energy and cost savings (Menzies & Wherrett, 2005). Regional climates often affect the most appropriate window type and the amount of savings (Karabay & Arici, 2012). In residential buildings, double-glazed windows can add value to homes and increase property values (Aroul & Hansz, 2011). 

Health

Reductions in air pollution due to lower heating and cooling demand decrease exposures to pollutants such as mercury and fine particulate matter generated from fossil fuel–based power plants, improving the health of nearby communities (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2025). These pollutants have been linked to increased morbidity from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, asthma, infections, and cancer (Gasparotto & Martinello, 2021) and to increased risk of mortality (Henneman et al., 2023). 

Better-performing windows can benefit health through improved thermal comfort (Bulut et al., 2021). When combined with other measures to reduce cooling loads, double-glazed windows can help with the risk of indoor heat stress (Ren et al., 2014). Improved windows may also reduce condensation and mold growth in buildings (Lozinsky et al., 2025). Residents of households with double-glazed windows have reported improvements in noise insulation after retrofitting single-pane windows (Bulut et al., 2021). 

Air Quality

Higher-performing glass can reduce air pollution by lowering gas and electricity demand for heating and cooling, which can decrease pollutants such as CO₂, nitrogen oxides, methane, mercury, and fine particulate matter generated from fossil fuel–based power plants (U.S. EPA, 2025).

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Risks

Faulty installation could compromise the expected benefits of double glazing. It could also lead to condensation on the inner pane if the sealant deteriorates, affecting visibility, aesthetics, and performance and resulting in a potential shorter lifespan than single glazing (Duan et al., 2021; Likins-White, 2023). Additional costs may be incurred when attempting to secure adequate expertise and equipment to ensure proper handling and installation (DIY Double Glaze, n.d.). Depending on the extent of the retrofits, this may drive up construction costs, which is a concern for building developers. However, it also represents opportunities to improve available technical expertise in regions where these services are unavailable or underdeveloped.

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Interactions with Other Solutions

Reinforcing

The Improve Windows and Glass solution reduces the amount of space heating and cooling required. This may reduce the required size and complexity of heating and cooling systems, making them more economically accessible.

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Upgrading window glass can motivate building owners to improve other elements of the building envelope. This could improve the cost efficiency of the upgrades when approached holistically. 

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Competing

The potential climate impact of deploying these solutions could be lower due to the reduced amount of space heating and cooling required in buildings from improving window glass.

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Dashboard

Solution Basics

m2 windows minimum double-glazed

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
00.040.065
units
Current 1.99×10¹⁰ 03.29×10¹⁰4.0×10¹⁰
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 1.3 2.12.6
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-123
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O, BC

Trade-offs

Manufacturing double-glazed or better windows generates more industrial sector emissions than does manufacturing single-glazed windows due to the additional materials used. However, life-cycle analysis studies such as Balasbaneh et al. (2022) compared different glazing options ranging from single to triple glazing and determined that the emissions reduced by using better windows outweighs the embodied emissions. Although it is outside the scope of this solution, window frames account for as much as 46–80% of a window's embodied emissions, especially when using conventional window frame materials such as polyvinyl chloride and aluminum (Saadatian et al., 2021). Despite the higher embodied emissions, the emissions reductions from implementing the solution are substantial.

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Action Word
Improve
Solution Title
Windows & Glass
Classification
Highly Recommended
Lawmakers and Policymakers
  • Set clear and measurable targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and the deployment of improved windows.
  • Enact holistic policy plans and building codes to reduce GHG emissions from buildings through improved windows and framing systems.
  • Set public procurement standards for windows and glass, using double-glazed windows, at minimum, for public buildings.
  • Amend building codes to include minimum requirements based on window performance; gradually increase the standards over time if necessary.
  • Periodically update codes, policies, and public guidance to keep pace with research and development.
  • Make double-glazed windows the minimum standard option through a range of policy interventions, including regulations, subsidies, and educational programs where relevant; extend incentives to high performing secondary-, double- or triple-glazed windows, if relevant.
  • Offer financial incentives such as subsidies, tax credits, and grants for consumers, manufacturers, start-ups, and improved window installers.
  • Ensure financial incentives reach, and offer additional incentives for, low- and middle-income communities.
  • Ensure financial incentives cover both new installations and retrofits.
  • Create financial disincentives such as higher taxes and fines for lower performing windows.
  • Subsidize workforce or skills development and/or work with businesses to identify gaps and needs such as technical knowledge or the advantages of new technology.
  • Invest in research and development to improve window design, manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity.
  • Create green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.
  • Offer educational resources, one-stop shops for windows, and demonstrations for installation and retrofits; offer tours of model builds that feature improved windows for commercial and private developers, highlighting the cost savings, and environmental benefits.

Further information:

Practitioners
  • Finance or develop only new construction and retrofits that use improved windows and other low-carbon practices.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as subsidies, tax credits, and grants for installing improved windows.
  • Seek or negotiate preferential loan agreements for developers using improved windows and other climate-friendly practices.
  • Use double-glazed windows as the most basic standard and offer a variety of better-performing options such as triple-glazed.
  • Work with designers and architects who integrate efficient windows and other efficient materials into their designs.
  • Integrate improved window designs into construction databases, including listing prices, thermal insulation properties, and environmental benefits.
  • Advocate for financial incentives, improved building codes, and educational programs advancing the use of improved windows.
  • Use educational resources, one-stop shops for retrofitting and weatherization, installation demonstrations, and tours of model builds.
  • Conduct research to improve the manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity of windows.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improving windows.

Further information:

Business Leaders
  • Finance only new construction and retrofits that use improved windows and other low-carbon practices.
  • Expand product lines to include improved window designs.
  • Integrate improved window designs into construction databases, listing prices, thermal insulation properties, and environmental benefits.
  • Invest in research and development to improve window design, manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity.
  • Advocate for financial incentives, improved building codes, and educational programs advancing the use of improved windows.
  • Join green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.
  • Create long-term purchasing agreements with improved window manufacturers to support stable demand and improve economies of scale.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.

Further information:

Nonprofit Leaders
  • Finance or develop only new construction and retrofits that use improved windows and other low-carbon practices.
  • Advocate for clear and measurable public targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and deployment of improved windows.
  • Advocate for holistic policy plans and building codes to reduce GHG emissions from buildings that include improved windows and framing systems.
  • Advocate for financial incentives, improved building codes, and educational programs advancing the use of improved windows.
  • Conduct research to improve window design, manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity.
  • Work with businesses for workforce or skills development.
  • Offer educational resources, one-stop shops for windows, and demonstrations for installation and retrofits; offer tours of model builds that feature improved windows for commercial and private developers, highlighting the cost savings and environmental benefits.
  • Create, join, or administer green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.

Further information:

Investors
  • Finance only new construction and retrofits that use improved windows and other low-carbon practices.
  • Invest in research and development and start-ups to improve window design, manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity.
  • Issue green bonds to invest in projects that use improved windows and integrate other climate-friendly construction practices.
  • Offer preferential loan agreements for developers using improved windows and other climate-friendly practices.
  • Join green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.

Further information:

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies
  • Finance only new construction and retrofits that use improved windows and other low-carbon practices.
  • Offer grants for developers using improved windows and other climate-friendly practices.
  • Create financing programs for private construction in low-income or under-resourced communities requiring the use of improved windows.
  • Advocate for clear and measurable public targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and the deployment of improved windows.
  • Advocate for holistic policy plans and building codes to reduce GHG emissions from buildings that include improved windows and framing systems.
  • Advocate for financial incentives, improved building codes, and educational programs for improved windows.
  • Fund research to improve window design, manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity.
  • Offer educational resources, one-stop shops for retrofitting and weatherization, installation demonstrations, and tours of model builds for commercial and private developers, highlighting the cost savings and environmental benefits.
  • Create, join, or administer green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.

Further information:

Thought Leaders
  • Advocate for clear and measurable public targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and the deployment of improved windows.
  • Advocate for holistic policy plans and building codes to reduce GHG emissions from buildings that include improved windows and framing systems.
  • Advocate for financial incentives, improved building codes, and educational programs for improved windows.
  • Conduct research to improve window design, manufacturing, adoption, supply chain access, and circularity.
  • Contract with businesses for workforce or skills development.
  • Offer or support educational resources, one-stop shops for retrofitting and weatherization, installation demonstrations, and tours of model builds for commercial and private developers, highlighting the cost savings and environmental benefits of improved windows.
  • Create, join, or administer green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.

Further information:

Technologists and Researchers
  • Research and develop high-performance window technologies such as vacuum glazing, aerogel applications, potential integration of solar photovoltaic glass, and the use of unconventional gases to fill multi-pane windows and improve performance.
  • Create improved alternatives to common practices for air and vapor sealing.
  • Find alternative materials for spacers with reduced thermal conductivity in double- and triple-glazed windows.
  • Research and develop alternative window frame designs to improve thermal performance, structural insulating materials, and improve ease of installation (e.g., out-of-the-box window installation kits).
  • Improve efficiency of the window manufacturing process, supply chain access, and the circular economy of glass.

Further information:

Communities, Households, and Individuals
  • Finance or develop only new construction and retrofits that use improved windows and other low-carbon practices.
  • Take advantage of financial incentives such as subsidies, tax credits, and grants for installing improved windows.
  • Advocate for clear and measurable public targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and the deployment of improved windows.
  • Advocate for holistic policy plans and building codes to reduce GHG emissions from buildings that include improved windows and framing systems.
  • Advocate for financial incentives, improved building codes, and educational programs for improved windows.
  • Organize local “green home tours” and open houses to showcase climate-friendly builds, fostering demand by highlighting cost savings and environmental benefits of improved windows.
  • Capture community feedback and share it with local policymakers to address barriers such as permitting logistics or up-front costs, helping to shape policies that drive adoption.
  • Create, join, or administer green building certification schemes and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for improved windows.

Further information:

Sources
Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions: High

Improving windows and glass helps optimize the amount of heating required in buildings by reducing heat loss. Calautit et al. (2025) reported that energy used for heating in a United Kingdom residence dropped nearly 23% after reducing the glass U-value from 5.6 W/m2K to 2.8 W/m2K. Using the same building parameters, the study tested the impact of reducing the U-value by 1.35 W/m2K in the climatic conditions of Netherlands, Japan, United States, Sweden and Australia. The outcomes were similar, with about a 10–12% reduction in heating loads (Calautit et al., 2025). The results from Yuk et al. (2024), Magraoui et al. (2025), and Ahmed et al. (2025) further support these findings. 

Similarly, the solution reduces heat gained from the outdoors into buildings, thereby cutting cooling loads. Gomaa et al. (2025) reported that energy use in a Saudi Arabian residence was reduced by 1,265 kWh/yr (49%) after improving the glass U-value from 5.6 to 0.9 W/m2K (84%). Es-sakali et al. (2022) recorded 36% less electricity consumed after reducing the U-value by 1.44 W/m2K in Morocco’s climate.

The results presented in this document summarize findings from 10 original studies reflecting current evidence from 13 countries. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions. The studies we found used simulations to assess the impact of retrofitting windows due to the inherent difficulty of real-world experiments. However, we used studies that include field measurements and calibration of the building simulations to validate their models.

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Updated Date

Improve District Heating: Buildings

Submitted by Drawdown Admin on
Sector
Buildings & Electricity
Mode
Cut Emissions
Cluster
Enhance Efficiency
Image
District heating facility
Coming Soon
On
Description for Social and Search
The Deploy District Heating solution is coming soon.
Action Word
Improve
Solution Title
District Heating: Buildings
Classification
Highly Recommended
Updated Date
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