Is climate change unfolding faster and fiercer than scientists expected?

To answer this question, it helps to understand how climate scientists make predictions.

Like weather forecasters, we use computer models that run on physics and chemistry to understand the world. But the weather report is based on current conditions and is reliable only about a week out. Climate models, on the other hand, are based on the long-term state of the oceans and atmosphere and are designed to predict climate on timescales of decades to millennia.

Think of it like this: the weather is like a play. It can change daily or hourly between scenes and performances, and there are many different forms it can take. Climate is the stage on which all of them take place.

That stage is now changing, and we understand why. We’re more sure that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet than we are that smoking causes cancer. Climate models have now been around for long enough that we can retroactively assess their predictions. It turns out that our models have predicted current global warming trends almost perfectly, with the model developed by Exxon Mobil particularly accurate in its predictions.

But no one lives in the global average; we experience climate change in the day-to-day weather where we are. We don’t expect climate models to perfectly replicate exact weather phenomena any more than we expect the blueprint for a theater to predict the exact performances it will host.

No climate model predicted the timing and location of the Pacific Northwest heat wave of 2021, the flooding that devastated North Carolina in 2024, or the fires this summer. They weren’t designed for that. But the models did tell us that such events would become more likely as the planet warms. When the stage itself changes, different shows become possible.  

Many effects of climate change follow from basic science. We know that when the Earth warms, heat waves get more frequent and intense. Warm air can hold more water vapor, so more moisture can be dumped on us during heavy downpours. At the same time, warm air is thirstier air, and increased evaporation raises the risk of drought. Warm water is hurricane food, which means that even though we don’t necessarily expect more storms, those that do form will be stronger, quicker to intensify, and harder to predict. Land ice melts in the heat, and warm water expands, which raises sea levels. And while fire risk depends on human choices like where we build and how we start or suppress fires, we do know that climate change is making fire weather – the hot, dry conditions that lead to conflagrations – much more likely.

So no, the record-shattering fires, floods, and heat waves we’re seeing aren’t necessarily “worse than we thought” – they’re exactly what we expect as the planet warms.  

This is not to say that scientists understand everything about our warming world. The Earth warmed more slowly than expected at the beginning of the 21st century, while the last few years have been much hotter than anticipated. This may be because we still aren’t sure exactly how much the Earth was cooled by sun-blocking pollution from cars and power plants and how much warming results as the air quality improves.  

Moreover, extreme events are complex, as evidenced by the fact that there are more than 150 definitions of drought alone in the scientific literature, and given that complexity, climate models fail to capture every nuance. We also can’t say for sure when “tipping points” like the die-off of the Amazon rainforest or the collapse of the deep ocean conveyor belt might occur. And we still have much to learn about the feedback processes that might accelerate climate change in the near future.  

This uncertainty is not our friend. If we knew the exact threshold beyond which disaster lies, we could plan accordingly. What we are certain about is that the danger increases with every ton of greenhouse gas humanity pumps into the atmosphere – and that we know how to stop global warming.

The same climate models that predicted the warming tell us that when we no longer put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the temperature will stop rising. There is no pent-up warming “in the pipeline”, although we still expect sea levels to rise further as the planet continues to adjust to its new temperature. We know where greenhouse gas emissions come from, and we already have virtually all of the solutions we need to curb them.

Scientists’ predictions about the future are coming true. The impacts of climate change are largely as we anticipated, but certainly worse than we hoped. At the same time, climate solutions are getting cheaper and more effective much faster than anticipated. The science is clear about what will happen if we keep spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. But it’s also clear that the future is still in human hands, and we have everything we need to make it even better than expected.

About the Author

Kate Marvel, Ph.D., is a climate scientist at Project Drawdown. She spent more than a decade as a research physicist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. She led the “Climate Trends” chapter in the U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment, has given a TED Talk, appeared on Meet the Press and The Ezra Klein Show, and testified before the U.S. Congress. Her first book, Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel About Our Changing Planet, was published by Ecco Press in 2025.

About Project Drawdown 

Project Drawdown is the world’s leading guide to science-based climate solutions. Our mission is to drive meaningful climate action around the world. A 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, Project Drawdown is funded by individual and institutional donations. 

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