Perspective  |  March 15, 2021

We need four waves of climate action

by Dr. Jonathan Foley

jon-foley-four-waves-main-image-1.jpg

Ocean waves
Michael Olsen on Unsplash

Every climate solution works differently, unfolding at different speeds. We’ll need them all, traveling in four parallel waves, to stop climate change.

Addressing climate change is going to be a race against time. Already we have delayed too long, and now we don’t have a moment to lose.

According to the “Carbon Law,” designed to limit global warming to 2˚C, we need to cut emissions in half during this decade and reach “net zero” emissions by 2050. The bulk of the work will be emissions reductions, especially in the next 10 years, followed by the build-out of carbon removal by the 2040s.

A simplified version of the “Carbon Law”, which would limit global warming to ~2˚C. It calls for steep emissions cuts immediately, and building out carbon removal projects, in the coming decades. Together, the emissions cuts and carbon removal would help us reach “net zero” by 2050. Graphic by Jonathan Foley © 2021.

As we look to halving emissions by ~2030 and reaching net zero by ~2050, I like to think of climate solutions moving in “waves” along several parallel fronts. Each one of these “waves” needs to begin today—but they unfold differently and yield results over time.


To understand this, it is important to see that each family of climate solutions has a characteristic timescale associated with it. That is, climate solutions tend to cluster into different categories, each with its own sequencing and pace.

For example, some actions can return rapid results, like radically improving energy efficiency, stopping deforestation, or capping methane leaks and black carbon emissions. Others make steady progress as we upgrade the world’s infrastructure—electrifying millions of buildings and vehicles and changing practices on millions of farms and ranches across the globe. Some others are naturally slower, like sequestering carbon by planting trees or regenerating soils, which build up over decades. And some solutions could be game-changers in the future but still require decades of research and development to come to fruition.


I think we need all these solutions—pursued in parallel. The challenge is to weave them together over time, to make the most progress possible, decade by decade.

Below, I have organized climate solutions into four major waves of action, which I think can play out in different ways.


1. Quick Wins

To dramatically cut emissions in the 2020s, we need aggressive and immediate action. Fortunately, there are solutions that can help with this.

Some “Quick Win” solutions focus on halting highly destructive practices, such as widespread deforestation, flaring and fugitive emissions of methane, and “black carbon” emissions from dirty cookstoves, biomass burning, and other sources. The moment we stop these practices, their emissions cease too. And reducing methane and “black carbon” emissions helps a great deal in the short term, as they pack a huge warming punch up front, while carbon dioxide warms more gradually. In other words, cutting methane and black carbon emissions now buys us time while we tackle other emissions.

Other “Quick Win” solutions focus on efficiency and waste, which can also achieve rapid emissions reductions. There are enormous opportunities to be more efficient in electricity use (especially in buildings and industrial processes), industry (through better management of waste and materials, especially refrigerants), transportation (increased fuel efficiency and alternative transportation), and buildings (with weatherization, insulation, building automation, and preventing refrigerant leaks). And in the food sector, we should dramatically cut food waste (~30–40% of the world’s food is never eaten), which can also greatly lower emissions.

There are obstacles to implementing all of these solutions, of course, but they offer large and immediate emissions reductions, plus strong economic returns. They are among the lowest hanging fruits, and that’s what we need for immediate results.


2. New Infrastructure

In addition to “Quick Wins,” we simultaneously need to start replacing old infrastructure with new, low-emitting systems.

To begin, we have to shut down fossil fuel energy sources and deploy renewable energy across the planet as quickly as possible. But given the enormous physical infrastructure and capital involved, this will inevitably take time. Even the most aggressive scenarios of this energy transition require the 2020s and 2030s to complete.

Beyond phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with renewables, we will simultaneously have to electrify everything. That means updating nearly every building on Earth so that heating and cooling systems are using renewable electricity. We will also have to retire nearly every vehicle on Earth, replacing them with electric bikes, cars, trucks, and trains.

And we will have to change almost every farm and ranch on Earth, transitioning them from highly-emitting farming techniques to low-emissions methods, including so-called regenerative practices.

We need to get started on all of these big transitions today, but given the massive infrastructure (and capital) turnover involved, this is going to take a concerted effort over two or three decades to accomplish. It reminds me of the old joke: Question: What’s the best time to get started? Answer: 30 years ago. Question: What’s the second-best time to get started? Answer: Today.


3. Growing Natural Sinks

The only viable paths to address climate change require we eventually bring emissions to zero. But we can also create carbon sinks—especially using nature-based carbon removal approaches—that absorb some of our emissions, or even begin to remove some of our past pollution.

To do this, we must start by protecting Earth’s existing carbon sinks, found in forests and the ocean. While we want to build additional carbon sinks, we first need to ensure that existing sinks—which remove ~55% of our carbon dioxide emissions and ~40% of our total greenhouse gas emissions—are maintained. If these start to decline, we will be under even more pressure to cut emissions and create other carbon sinks.

Beyond protecting nature’s existing carbon sinks, we can start to add new ones by restoring ecosystems, especially by planting trees. There are discussions about planting billions and billions of trees to absorb some of our remaining emissions. However, the merits and practicality of these schemes are still hotly debated. In addition to tree planting, we could use regenerative farming practices on croplands, pastures, and degraded lands — building back carbon in the soils and vegetation, creating new carbon sinks. There are debates about the effectiveness of these solutions, but there is enormous potential for carbon uptake on our working lands.

This wave of climate solutions is, by its very nature, steady and gradual, playing out over decades. Protecting nature’s current carbon sinks and adding new ones is a long-game, based on building carbon stocks in trees and soil. We should start this work today and continue to protect our natural ecosystems and regeneratively manage our working lands through the next few decades and beyond.


4. Deploying New Tech

The other waves can address most of our emissions and create significant new carbon sinks. But there are areas that are difficult to decarbonize and will require new technology. And there are opportunities to use technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere beyond what nature-based solutions can do. This is where focused research and development efforts, starting today, could pay off in the long run.

This wave of climate solutions depends on new technology, but as an “end game” move in the climate chess match. These will take time to develop, so we should rely on other, existing solutions in the next two decades, leaving these new technologies for the final moves.

Specifically, I think we need to focus on research and development, starting today, to make carbon-free cement, steel, plastic, and jet fuel. There are pilot projects to do this today, but they are far from economically competitive and scalable. But with some significant investment, I am confident we can find good, cheap, reliable ways to do this in the coming decades.

In addition, there are interesting ideas about removing carbon from the atmosphere using a variety of industrial and chemical processes. At present, these are only small pilot projects, not nearly enough to make a dent in the atmosphere. But with a decade or two of additional research and development, these technologies may mature to be able to remove our last, hard-to-decarbonize emissions in the 2040s.

A (potentially big) mistake would be to let the promise of carbon removal technology be an excuse to delay immediate emissions cuts. These technologies are likely decades away and only absorb some of our final emissions. That’s where they should focus.

A hypothetical example of how four different “waves” of climate solutions might unfold over time. Obviously, the details depend on our choices. Graphic by Jonathan Foley © 2021.

We are in a race to stop climate change. It’s the race of a lifetime. It’s a race for the future.

To win this race, we will need many different climate solutions — deployed strategically over time — to get the best possible result overall. In other words, we have to carefully stage our climate efforts to maximize the overall rate of progress — folding in new tools as we can — until we cross the finish line.


Jonathan Foley (@GlobalEcoGuy) is executive director of Project Drawdown, the world’s leading resource for climate solutions.

Press Contacts

If you are a journalist and would like to republish Project Drawdown content, please contact press@drawdown.org.

More Insights

News  |  November 16, 2023
Charred wood pellets
New report: Reducing black carbon
Key Report Takeaways:  Black carbon is a powerful climate pollutant which stems from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass Black carbon has unparalleled impacts on human well-being, the environment, and climate change   Black carbon has a short-term warming potential up to 1,500 times greater than carbon dioxide and is responsible for millions of premature deaths annually worldwide Black carbon emissions are highest in low- and middle-income countries with half of all emissions coming from just five countries Around 48% of all black carbon emissions are attributable to the residential sector, particularly from the use of dirty cooking fuels Targeted solutions across the residential, transportation, and industrial sectors in high-emitting regions would dramatically reduce black carbon emissions while preventing millions of premature deaths and saving trillions of dollars per year  In a report published today, scientists from Project Drawdown, the world’s leading resource for climate solutions, provide the most comprehensive look yet at how addressing black carbon – more commonly known as soot – would reduce global warming while preventing millions of premature deaths and saving trillions of dollars annually worldwide.  Black carbon, which largely results from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter used for cooking, transportation, industrial production, and more, is a major pollutant and greenhouse gas with a short-term warming potential up to 1,500 times greater than carbon dioxide.  Worldwide, black carbon is responsible for millions of premature deaths annually, increasing the risk of cardiovascular, respiratory, and other diseases. This results in the loss of trillions of US dollars globally in economic productivity each year. These impacts are felt most acutely in low- and middle-income countries, which still rely heavily on unclean fuels, such as wood, for heating, cooking, and energy production.  In the groundbreaking report, Project Drawdown researchers highlight global hotspots and sources of black carbon across geographies providing policymakers and funders with the best insight yet into what solutions, deployed where, will result in the greatest emissions reductions.
Read more
News  |  November 15, 2023
A graphic for Drawdown's Neighborhood: Tri-State featuring skylines of New York City, Newark, and New Haven
Drawdown’s Neighborhood video series takes on the Tri-State area
by Drawdown Stories
Drawdown’s Neighborhood, presented by Project Drawdown, is a series of short documentaries featuring the stories of climate solutions heroes, city by city across America. For its fifth edition, the series heads to the northeast in Drawdown’s Neighborhood: Tri-State – now available online! Spanning New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, the Tri-State area is one of the largest and most populous metropolitan areas in the world. As such, it both strongly impacts and is heavily impacted by climate change. From record-breaking heat waves to supercharged hurricanes, the Tri-State is all too familiar with the increasing threats wrought by climate change as well as the inequities exacerbated by such disasters.  Fortunately, the region is also brimming with bold creators, innovative leaders, and energized environmentalists working at the forefront of climate solutions to help their home – and the world – become a greener, healthier, and more equitable place. Drawdown’s Neighborhood: Tri-State passes the mic to eleven of these climate heroes whose voices too often go unheard.  Voices of the Tri-State Join Drawdown’s Neighborhood host and Project Drawdown Director of Storytelling and Engagement, Matt Scott, as he introduces us to: Amanda Appelson, Plantega (Bronx, NY) Hailey Miranda, We Stay / Nos Quedamos (Bronx, NY) Jennifer Seda, Bronx River Alliance (Bronx, NY) Anthony Diaz, Newark Water Coalition (Newark, NJ) Bilal Walker, Al-Munir LLC (Newark, NJ) Christian Rodriguez, Ironbound Community Corporation (Newark, NJ) Nathaly Agosto Filión, Newark Green Team (Newark, NJ) Alex Rodriguez, Save the Sound (New Haven, CT) Doreen Abubakar, Community Place-Making Engagement Network (New Haven, CT) Schandra Madha, New Haven Ecology Project / Common Ground (New Haven, CT) Xóchitl Garcia, Environmental Justice Community Organizer (New Haven, CT) Share These Stories Help us amplify the work of these Tri-State climate heroes by sharing their stories with others in your network and across social media. Please feel free to copy and paste the posts below: Sample post 1: Let’s hear it for climate heroes! Check out #DrawdownsNeighborhood: #TriState, presented by @ProjectDrawdown — a short doc series that tells the stories of 11 changemakers bringing climate solutions to their communities. www.drawdown.org/neighborhood Sample post 2: Join @ProjectDrawdown on a journey to #PassTheMic to climate heroes whose stories too often go unheard. We’re taking you to the #TriState area to show you how 11 local changemakers are creating a healthier, more livable future for all. www.drawdown.org/neighborhood Sample post 3: Need inspiration for #climateaction in your own community? #DrawdownsNeighborhood: #TriState features 11 stories from unsung heroes who are using climate solutions to usher in a better, greener future. www.drawdown.org/neighborhood Additional, shareable assets include: Drawdown’s Neighborhood landing page Drawdown’s Neighborhood: Tri-State trailer Drawdown’s Neighborhood: Tri-State promotional graphic (also below) 
Read more
Video  |  November 1, 2023
Triple Win: climate change, poverty, and biodiversity
Halting climate change, alleviating poverty, and stemming the loss of biodiversity are some of the most critical challenges humanity faces today. With finite resources to invest in addressing them, how do we decide where to focus our efforts? Good news: We don’t have to pick one or another! Project Drawdown has identified a set of specific technologies and practices that address multiple challenges simultaneously and synergistically, creating an exciting opportunity for funders and development agencies to dramatically amplify impact while working to address the world’s most pressing needs. In this latest Drawdown Ignite webinar, climate-poverty solutions scientist Yusuf Jameel and policy advisor Dan Jasper introduce these “triple-win” solutions and explore how strategic deployment in low- and middle-income countries can bring new hope for a better world within our lifetimes. Top Takeaways Solutions to three massive threats humanity faces today – climate change, poverty, and biodiversity loss – overlap, and numerous actions can address all three at the same time. Efforts to alleviate poverty can increase or decrease demand for fossil fuels. As development proceeds, it’s critical to avoid “carbon lock-in” by favoring renewable over carbon dioxide–producing technologies. Climate change and biodiversity loss are intricately intertwined. Climate change exacerbates biodiversity loss, and biodiversity loss exacerbates climate change. Thus, efforts to alleviate both simultaneously can have synergistic effects. For greatest impacts, funding and action should focus on solutions that address multiple challenges at the same time. For example, shifting agricultural practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance food supply, improve gender equality, and protect habitat. The ability to do so is unfortunately limited by inadequate funding, inappropriate use of available funding, and inequitable distribution of available funding. Solutions include increasing funding for projects that address multiple challenges simultaneously, living up to funding pledges, increasing accountability to ensure funds are appropriately distributed, basing funding decisions on sound science, pursuing the greatest good rather than the greatest profit, and canceling debts owed by low and middle-income countries.  Anyone can help by sharing this message with policymakers and joining advocacy organizations that recognize the importance of and promote intersectional action. Useful Resources Climate–Poverty Connections: Opportunities for Synergistic Solutions at the Intersection of Planetary and Human Well-Being Desperate for hope? Linking human well-being and climate solutions is a way forward The win-wins of climate and biodiversity solutions Reflections from Bonn: Climate negotiations must face reality and rebuild credibility A rescue plan for people and the planet New IPCC report highlights urgent need to advance climate solutions and development simultaneously Key takeaways from Drawdown Lift’s Climate–Poverty Connections webinar series This webinar is part of Project Drawdown’s monthly Drawdown Ignite webinar series. Drawdown Ignite provides information and inspiration to guide your climate solutions journey. View past Drawdown Ignite webinars on YouTube, and visit our Events page for updates on future webinars.
Read more