Use Smart & Programmable Thermostats

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Summary

We define Use Smart & Programmable Thermostats as reducing energy use and associated GHG emissions from heating and cooling by automatically making adjustments to the set temperature of a residential building. Smart thermostats can be remotely controlled and can adjust indoor temperature settings in response to learned occupancy patterns, while programmable thermostats require a user to manually program a temperature schedule.

Description for Social and Search
Using smart or programmable thermostats to regularly adjust residential temperature settings for energy savings also reduces the emissions from heating and cooling residential buildings.
Overview

Residential buildings directly and indirectly generate GHG emissions through the fuels and electricity used for heating, cooling, and other functions. These emissions accounted for 12.5% of global emissions in 2021 (Ge et al., 2026). Heating is the largest residential source of operational emissions, with cooling being another major contributor (Energy Transitions Commission, 2025).

Smart and programmable thermostats reduce energy use by allowing temperatures to drift when occupants are away or asleep and restoring optimal temperatures in anticipation of occupants returning or waking. Since heating systems often rely on burning fossil fuels for heat (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2023), the emissions affected are primarily CO₂. Similarly, the emissions affected when cooling demands are reduced are primarily CO₂ from the electricity generated to power heat pumps and air conditioners. 

The amount of CO₂ saved with smart and programmable thermostats can vary substantially with occupant behavior, set points, occupancy levels, and climate (Pritoni et al., 2015; Stopps & Touchie, 2021). We used the minimum performance standard for Energy Star–certified smart thermostats, namely 8% run-time reduction for heating and 10% for cooling (Energy Star, 2017), with run time being used as a proxy for energy savings. This is a conservative value; many studies have measured or modeled higher savings (Alhamayani et al., 2021; Pang et al., 2021). 

Owning a smart or programmable thermostat does not guarantee it will be used to adjust temperatures to save energy (Pritoni et al., 2015; Stopps & Touchie, 2021). For example, while 53% of U.S. homes own a smart or programmable thermostat, only 16% report using a smart or programmable thermostat to automatically adjust temperatures (U.S. Energy Information Administration [U.S. EIA], 2023a). We also assumed that households that do not have a smart or programmable thermostat are not manually adjusting temperatures to save energy. 

As societies electrify, smart and programmable thermostats may play an increasingly important role in shifting demand away from grid peak periods (Stopps & Touchie, 2022). This can reduce emissions even further because grids often depend more on fossil fuel peaker plants during these times. This analysis does not include such emissions reductions. 

References

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Kini, R. L., Vlachokostas, A., Brambley, M. R., & Rogers, A. (2025). Occupant-centric demand response for thermostatically-controlled home loads. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid16(3), 2234–2245. Link to source: http://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2025.3540427  

Lee, Z. E., & Max Zhang, K. (2022). Unintended consequences of smart thermostats in the transition to electrified heating. Applied Energy322, Article 119384. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119384  

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Lu, J., Sookoor, T., Srinivasan, V., Gao, G., Holben, B., Stankovic, J., Field, E., & Whitehouse, K. (2010). The smart thermostat: Using occupancy sensors to save energy in homes. Proceedings of the 8th ACM Conference on Embedded Networked Sensor Systems, SenSys ’10, 211–224. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1145/1869983.1870005

Mourshed, M. (2016). Climatic parameters for building energy applications: A temporal-geospatial assessment of temperature indicators. Renewable Energy94, 55–71. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.03.021  

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Pang, Z., Chen, Y., Zhang, J., O’Neill, Z., Cheng, H., & Dong, B. (2021). How much HVAC energy could be saved from the occupant-centric smart home thermostat: A nationwide simulation study. Applied Energy283, Article 116251. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116251  

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Credits

Lead Fellow

  • Heather McDiarmid, Ph.D

Contributors

  • Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.

  • James Gerber, Ph.D.

  • Daniel Jasper

  • Alex Sweeney

Internal Reviewers

  • Henry Igugu, Ph.D.

  • Amanda D. Smith, Ph.D.

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.

Effectiveness

For heating, 0.23 t CO₂‑eq/yr (20- and 100-yr basis) is reduced for every smart or programmable thermostat in use (Table 1a). This is a weighted global average based on the proportion of homes that use different sources of energy for space heating and assumes an 8% reduction in heating energy with a smart or programmable thermostat (Energy Star, 2017). 

For cooling, 0.091 t CO₂‑eq/yr is reduced for every smart or programmable thermostat in use (100-year basis, 0.092 t CO₂‑eq/yr on a 20-yr basis) (Table 1b). This is a weighted global average based on regional electricity demand for space cooling and regional electricity grid emission factors. The analysis assumes a 10% reduction in cooling energy with a smart or programmable thermostat (Energy Star, 2017).

The effectiveness of smart or programmable thermostats at reducing emissions will vary based on total heating and cooling demand. This is a function of climate and building performance as well as occupant behaviors (Hendron et al., 2021). Occupants may, for example, differ in how much they allow temperatures to drift while away or at night, how frequently overrides are used, and the schedules on which programming is based (Hendron et al., 2021).

Table 1. Effectiveness at reducing emissions from heating and cooling.

Unit: t CO₂‑eq /smart or programmable thermostat used to save energy for heating/yr, 100-yr basis

Mean 0.23

Unit: t CO₂‑eq )/smart or programmable thermostat used to save energy on cooling/yr, 100-yr basis

Mean 0.091
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Cost

A smart or programmable thermostat for heating will save an average household US$370/t CO₂‑eq reduced (Table 2a). A smart or programmable thermostat for heating has an average initial cost of US$74, and households that adopt and use these thermostats to save on energy will spend on average US$89 less per year on heating. Assuming a 15-year lifespan (EGIA Contractor University, 2025), this results in a net US$84/yr savings.

We assumed that half of adopting households worldwide purchase a smart or programmable thermostat to use in their homes and the other half already own a smart or programmable thermostat and start using them to save energy with programmed setbacks. This is consistent with US statistics that show 55% of households with heating have a smart or programmable thermostat but only 16% use one to adjust heating temperatures, with most using one set temperature most of the time (U.S. EIA, 2023a). 

A smart or programmable thermostat for cooling will save a household US$230/t CO₂‑eq reduced (see Table 2b). The average initial cost for a smart or programmable thermostat for cooling is US$58, and will save a household an average of US$25/yr on cooling. Assuming a 15-year lifespan, this results in a net US$21/yr savings for the household.

For cooling, the initial cost assumes one-third of homes purchase a smart or programmable thermostat for a central air conditioning system, one-third purchase such a thermostat for a window or portable air conditioner, and one third use an existing smart or programmable thermostat but change behaviors to start using the programming feature. Similar to heating, 60% of U.S. households with cooling have a smart or programmable thermostat but only 15% use one to adjust cooling temperatures (U.S. EIA, 2023b). 

Table 2. Cost per unit climate impact for heating and cooling. Negative values reflect cost savings.

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-year basis

Mean -370

Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-year basis

Mean -230
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Methods and Supporting Data

Learning Curve

Insufficient data exist to quantify the learning curve for smart or programmable thermostats. 

Speed of Action

Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.

At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.

Use Smart & Programmable Thermostats is a GRADUAL climate solution. It has a steady, linear impact on the atmosphere. The cumulative effect over time builds as a straight line.

Caveats

Smart or programmable thermostats may be more difficult to implement in multiunit residential buildings with centralized heating and cooling systems in which units do not have temperature control (Fine & Touchie, 2020). Additionally, some existing space heating systems such as fireplaces and wood stoves may not be compatible with programmable thermostats. 

The Government of Canada (2025) recommends minimizing temperature setbacks for heat pumps or programming the return to normal temperatures in stages to avoid triggering the use of less efficient backup heating systems. 

This solution depends on households programming their thermostat or directing a smart thermostat to save energy. As with any outcome that depends on behavior change, post-intervention persistence can decay over time (Allcott & Rogers, 2014). Comfort concerns, changes to schedules, low perceived benefits, and lack of perceived control over heating and cooling systems are common reasons why households inactivate thermostat programming (Heatherly et al., 2023; Peffer et al., 2013; Pritoni et al., 2015; Stopps & Touchie, 2021). 

Some studies show little to no change in energy use with programmable thermostats, particularly if the thermostats are not easy to use (Peffer et al., 2013). Energy savings setbacks are more likely to be used with smart thermostats than programmable ones (Stopps & Touchie, 2021; Tamas et al., 2021), likely because of improved ease of use and increased automation. 

Use of smart and programmable thermostats reduces the emissions from operating buildings. However, these reductions pale in comparison to those offered by heat pumps and decarbonizing the electricity sector by adopting solutions such as distributed solar PVutility-scale solar PVonshore wind, and offshore wind.

Current Adoption

We estimated that 140 million households worldwide use smart or programmable thermostats to save energy for heating (Table 3a) and 30 million use them to save energy for cooling (Table 3b). 

The climate impact of this solution depends on households not only adopting the technology, but also using it to regularly adjust temperatures with the goal of saving energy. Where only adoption values exist, we assumed use patterns are similar to those in the United States, where 25–29% of households that own a smart or programmable thermostat are using the programming feature (U.S. EIA, 2023a; U.S. EIA, 2023b).

For adoption, we estimated the number of households with smart or programmable thermostats in high-income countries separately from low- and middle-income countries and combined them to get a global total. In each case, we applied the average smart or programmable thermostat use rate for the group of countries to their estimated number of households that require heating or cooling. 

These estimates are based on data from seven studies covering different geographies and spanning 2017–2025. 

Table 3. Current adoption level (2025).

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats used for the purposes of saving energy on heating 

Total 140,000,000

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats used for the purposes of saving energy on cooling

Total 30,000,000
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Adoption Trend

We estimate that globally, each year 1.4 million households start using smart or programmable thermostats to save on heating (Table 4a) and 0.60 million households start using them to save on cooling (Table 4b).

These data are based on surveys for heating and cooling covering 2015–2020 in the United States (U.S. EIA 2018b, 2018a, 2023b, 2023a) and 2007–2023 in Canada (Statistics Canada, 2025). Due to lack of data, we were not able to estimate adoption trends for low- and middle-income countries, and assumed the trend is negligible. 

Table 4. Current adoption trend (2007–2023).

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats put to use for saving energy on heating/yr 

Total 1,400,000

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats put to use for saving energy on cooling/yr

Total 600,000
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Adoption Ceiling

If every household that currently relies on heating were to adopt and use smart or programmable thermostats to save energy, the total adoption would be 650 million households (Table 5a). This is based on the IEA’s estimate that 40% of households worldwide require space heating (World Bank, n.d.), combined with regional population estimates (United Nations, 2024), and estimates for household sizes by region (Pew Research Center, 2019).

Similarly for cooling, if every household that currently uses air conditioning were to adopt and use smart or programmable thermostats to save energy, the total adoption would be 580 million households (Table 5b). This is based on Falchetta et al.’s (2024) estimate that 35% of households worldwide currently have space cooling, combined with population and household size estimates (Pew Research Center, 2019; United Nations, 2024). This analysis does not reflect anticipated growing demand for space cooling with rising populations, rising affluence in low- and middle-income countries, and rising temperatures (Falchetta et al., 2024).

Table 5. Adoption ceiling: upper limit for adoption level.

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats put to use for saving energy on heating

Total 650,000,000

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats put to use for saving energy on cooling

Total 580,000,000
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Achievable Adoption

For heating, we estimate that use of smart or programmable thermostats to save on energy could reach 290 to 510 million households globally (Table 6a). In high income countries, this assumes 65–100% of households with heating needs adopt and use thermostats to save energy. At the low end, this represents the reported rate of regular setback use for heating homes in the state of New York (Lockheed Martin Energy, 2017), and we assume all heating households could program thermostats to save energy at the high end. In low and middle income countries, we assume 16–48% of households with heating needs adopt and use smart or programmable thermostats to save energy. This is based on today’s estimated smart and programmable thermostat adoption and use rate in the United States and Canada respectively (Statistics Canada, 2025; U.S. EIA, 2023a).

For cooling, we estimate that use of smart or programmable thermostats to save on energy could reach 190–510 million households globally (see Table 6b). In high income countries, this assumes 75–100% of households with cooling systems use thermostats to save energy for cooling. At the low end, this represents the reported rate of regular setback use for cooling homes in the state of New York (Lockheed Martin Energy, 2017) and we assume all households adopt and use smart or programmable thermostats at the high end. In low and middle income countries, we assume households adopt and use smart and programmable thermostats at a rate of 15 and 75%, representing the current rates for the United States and the state of New York, respectively (Lockheed Martin Energy, 2017; U.S. EIA, 2023a).

Table 6. Range of achievable adoption levels. 

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats put to use for saving energy on heating

Current adoption 140,000,000
Achievable – low 290,000,000
Achievable – high 510,000,000
Adoption ceiling 650,000,000

Unit: smart or programmable thermostats put to use for saving energy on cooling

Current adoption 30,000,000
Achievable – low 190,000,000
Achievable – high 510,000,000
Adoption ceiling 580,000,000
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For space heating, current adoption and use of a smart or programmable thermostat to save energy has an estimated climate impact of 0.033 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr globally (100- and 20-year basis; Table 7a). If all households with heating were to adopt and use these thermostats, the estimated climate impact would be 0.15 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100- and 20-year basis). We estimate the achievable range to be 0.065–0.12 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100- and 20-year basis). 

For space cooling, current adoption and use of a smart or programmable thermostat to save energy has an estimated climate impact of 0.0028 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr globally (100- and 20-year basis; Table 7b). If all households with cooling were to adopt and use these thermostats, the estimated climate impact would be 0.052 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100-year basis) and 0.053 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (20-year basis). We estimate the achievable range to be 0.017–0.46 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (100-year basis) and 0.018–0.47 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (20-year basis). 

The impact from heating is greater than the impact from cooling because there are more households that use heating and more energy is needed on average per household for heating. 

Table 7. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq )/yr for heating, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.033
Achievable – low 0.065
Achievable – high 0.12
Adoption ceiling 0.15

Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr for cooling, 100-yr basis

Current adoption 0.0028
Achievable – low 0.017
Achievable – high 0.046
Adoption ceiling 0.052
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Additional Benefits

Income and Work

When used as intended, smart and programmable thermostats can save money by reducing energy use (Blonz et al., 2025; Lu et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2020). The cost savings can vary depending on the type of thermostat, fuel used for heating, geographic location, and sources of energy used to generate electricity. In our estimates, on average, households using smart or programmable thermostats could save US$84/yr on heating and US$21/yr on cooling (see Table 2). Where time-of-use electricity pricing exists, smart and programmable thermostats can be used to heat or cool a home in advance of peak periods to save even more (Chassin et al., 2015). 

Health

A reduction in energy demand from smart thermostats may lower air pollution and limit exposure to pollutants such as lead and fine particulate matter generated by fossil fuel-based power plants, thereby improving health in nearby communities (Henneman et al., 2023; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [U.S. EPA], 2026). 

Air Quality

Reducing energy use can reduce climate and air pollutants associated with burning fossil fuels, such as CO₂, nitrogen oxides, methane, lead, and fine particulate matter (U.S. EPA, 2026).

Risks

Smart and programmable thermostats have the potential to increase peak demand for electricity when programmed around common schedules. For example, thermostats may be programmed to raise temperatures in the early morning in winter when electricity grids are already strained (Lee & Max Zhang, 2022). Conversely, grid-integrated thermostats can reduce grid peaks by optimizing when heating or cooling occurs while maintaining occupant comfort (Kini et al., 2025).

Interactions with Other Solutions

Competing

There are diminishing returns as solutions that reduce heating and cooling loads are combined. When smart or programmable thermostats reduce the energy and emissions from heating and cooling, they also reduce the emissions savings these other solutions achieve. 

Consensus
Dashboard

Solution Basics

smart or programmable thermostat programmed to adjust temperatures for the purposes of saving energy

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.23
units
Current 1.4×10⁸ 02.9×10⁸5.1×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.033 0.0650.12
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-370
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Solution Basics

smart or programmable thermostat programmed to adjust temperatures

t CO₂-eq (100-yr)/unit/yr
0.091
units
Current 3.0×10⁷ 01.9×10⁸5.1×10⁸
Achievable (Low to High)

Climate Impact

Gt CO₂-eq (100-yr)/yr
Current 0.003 0.0170.046
US$ per t CO₂-eq
-230
Gradual

CO₂ , CH₄, N₂O

Trade-offs

When large numbers of households use smart or programmable thermostats to save energy, it can unintentionally cause spikes in electricity demand when heating systems are simultaneously turned on to return temperatures to normal (Lee & Max Zhang, 2022). These spikes can increase overall grid capacity needs and increase demand from fossil-fueled peaking generation. Grid-interactive smart thermostats can reduce these spikes through grid level energy management (Lee et al., 2020). 

Action Word
Use
Solution Title
Smart & Programmable Thermostats
Classification
Highly Recommended

Lawmakers and Policymakers

  • Offer one-stop educational resources for thermostats; offer demonstrations for installation and programming through online videos and in-person demos; clearly state benefits of smart and programmable thermostats, highlighting the cost savings, social benefits, and environmental impacts.
  • Set clear and measurable targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and deployment of smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Ensure public procurement standards require smart and programmable thermostats for new construction; require retrofits for existing public buildings.
  • Create regulatory standards and building codes that encourage, incentivize, and/or require the use of smart and programmable thermostats, especially in new construction.
  • Periodically update codes, policies, and public guidance to keep pace with adoption and technology advances.
  • Encourage utilities to incentivize smart and programmable thermostat uptake and use for demand management.
  • Consider offering subsidies that allow for flexible implementation or selective applicability within national systems; ensure subsidy programs are designed based on scientific evidence showing they will have a positive impact on adoption for the intended beneficiaries; target subsidies to low- and middle-income households and simultaneously offer incentives for broadband and digital connectivity; ensure financial incentives cover both new installations and retrofits.
  • Focus broader policies on energy efficiency through the use of intelligent control.
  • Create regulatory standards and building codes that encourage, incentivize, and/or require the use of smart and programmable thermostats, especially in new construction.

Practitioners

  • Offer one-stop educational resources for thermostats; offer demonstrations for installation and programming through online videos and in-person demos; clearly state benefits of smart and programmable thermostats highlighting the cost savings, social benefits, and environmental impacts.
  • Offer free or discounted thermostats in electrically heated homes and homes with cooling in exchange for control when the electricity grid is strained. 
  • Ensure customers know they can upgrade their thermostats; provide recommendations to customers on purchasing, installing, and using smart and programmable thermostats; inform customers of public or private incentives for purchases and/or installation; educate customers on the savings, social, and environmental benefits of installation. 
  • Develop or offer easy-to-use smart and programmable thermostat systems; provide scheduled maintenance services for customers; bundle services with heating and cooling system services when possible; ensure customers have the option to review products and services online.
  • Offer thermostats that are compatible with widely used electronic devices such as laptops and smart phones; incorporate Wi-Fi, bluetooth, and the Internet of Things into thermostats, allow for remote control and visibility via smartphone apps.
  • Provide 0% financing options for bundled services, including thermostats and/or related energy efficiency measures.
  • Ease the learning curve for customers by providing clear, concise instructions; ensure elderly customers are comfortable with using the thermostat before leaving after installation.
  • Use customer feedback and work with manufacturers to simplify interface designs and improve functionality. 
  • Advertise for smart and programmable thermostats depicting individual savings on heating and cooling; use social media to reach broader audiences.
  • Create algorithms that can save energy and money for consumers by responding to time of use, customer behavior, and current weather; ensure thermostats have the ability to be updated for future improvements to the software.
  • When installing a thermostat, ensure it is easily accessible and will not be obstructed.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for smart and programmable thermostats.

Business Leaders

  • Help socialize the importance of smart and programmable thermostats by incorporating them into corporate net zero strategies; highlight the use of smart and programmable thermostats in public communications.
  • Invest in or offer grants to start-ups seeking to deploy smart and programmable thermostats; invest in research and development to determine optimal user interfaces and/or algorithms for smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Offer pro bono business advice to nonprofit organizations working to improve building efficiency and deploy smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Offer employees information or benefits for upgrading their thermostats at home.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for smart and programmable thermostats.

Nonprofit Leaders

  • Offer one-stop educational resources for thermostats; offer demonstrations for installation and programming through online videos and in-person demos; clearly state benefits of smart and programmable thermostats highlighting the cost savings, social benefits, and environmental impacts.
  • Help policymakers set clear and measurable targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and the deployment of smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Advocate for and help design regulatory standards and building codes that encourage, incentivize, and/or require the use of smart and programmable thermostats, especially in new construction.
  • Assist regulators in periodically updating codes, policies, and public guidance to keep pace with adoption and technology advances.
  • Advocate for subsidies that allow for flexible implementation or selective applicability within national systems; help ensure subsidy programs are designed based on scientific-evidence showing they will have a positive impact on adoption for the intended beneficiaries; recommend that subsidies be targeted to low- and middle-income households and simultaneously offer incentives for broadband and digital connectivity; help ensure financial incentives cover both new installations and retrofits.
  • Help shift policy frameworks to focus on energy efficiency through the use of intelligent control.
  • Conduct research to improve adoption and use of smart and programmable thermostats, paying close attention to how user interfaces impact behavior.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for smart and programmable thermostats.

Investors

  • Finance only new construction and retrofits that use smart or programmable thermostats as well as other energy-efficient heating and cooling technologies and practices.
  • Invest in research and development to improve smart and programmable thermostat design and user interface.
  • Invest in or offer grants to start-ups seeking to deploy smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Issue or buy green bonds to deploy capital to projects that use smart or programmable thermostats and integrate other energy-efficient heating and cooling technologies and practices.
  • Offer preferential loan agreements for developers using smart or programmable thermostats, energy efficient building practices, and other related climate solutions.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for smart and programmable thermostats.

Philanthropists and International Aid Agencies

  • Offer one-stop educational resources for thermostats; offer demonstrations for installation and programming through online videos and in-person demos; clearly state benefits of smart and programmable thermostats, highlighting the cost savings, social benefits, and environmental impacts.
  • Offer grants or access to no-interest financing for retrofits and installations of smart and programmable thermostats; ensure financial support for projects involving building retrofits or new construction; require the use of smart or programmable thermostats.
  • Offer grants for financing for research and development to improve smart and programmable thermostat design and user interface.
  • Invest in or offer grants to start-ups seeking to deploy smart or programmable thermostats.
  • Issue or buy green bonds to deploy capital to projects that use smart or programmable thermostats and integrate other energy-efficient heating and cooling technologies and practices.
  • Offer preferential loan agreements for developers using smart or programmable thermostats, energy efficient building practices, and other related climate solutions.
  • Help policymakers set clear and measurable targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and deployment of smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Advocate for and help design regulatory standards and building codes that encourage, incentivize, and/or require the use of smart and programmable thermostats, especially in new construction.
  • Help regulators periodically update codes, policies, and public guidance to keep pace with adoption and technology advances.
  • Advocate for subsidies that allow for flexible implementation or selective applicability within national systems; help ensure subsidy programs are designed based on scientific evidence showing they will have a positive impact on adoption for the intended beneficiaries; recommend that subsidies be targeted to low- and middle-income households and simultaneously offer incentives for broadband and digital connectivity; help ensure financial incentives cover both new installations and retrofits.
  • Help shift policy frameworks to focus on energy efficiency through the use of intelligent control.
  • Conduct research to improve adoption and use of smart and programmable thermostats, paying close attention to how user interfaces impact behavior.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for smart and programmable thermostats.

Thought Leaders

  • Help create educational efforts and resources for smart and programmable thermostats; offer demonstrations for installation and programming through online videos and in-person demos; clearly state benefits of smart and programmable thermostats, highlighting the cost savings, social benefits, and environmental impacts.
  • Help policymakers set clear and measurable targets for building efficiency, emissions reduction, and deployment of smart and programmable thermostats.
  • Advocate for and help design regulatory standards and building codes that encourage, incentivize, and/or require the use of smart or programmable thermostats, especially in new construction.
  • Help regulators periodically update codes, policies, and public guidance to keep pace with adoption and technology advances.
  • Advocate for subsidies that allow for flexible implementation or selective applicability within national systems; help ensure subsidy programs are designed based on scientific evidence showing they will have a positive impact on adoption for the intended beneficiaries; recommend that subsidies be targeted to low- and middle-income households and simultaneously offer incentives for broadband and digital connectivity; help ensure financial incentives cover both new installations and retrofits.
  • Help shift policy frameworks to focus on energy efficiency through the use of intelligent control.
  • Conduct research to improve adoption and use of smart and programmable thermostats, paying close attention to how user interfaces impact behavior.
  • Create or join green building certification schemes, green building councils, and/or public-private partnerships that offer information, training, and general support for smart and programmable thermostats.

Technologists and Researchers

  • Develop smart systems that integrate thermostats into a systems level perspective, allowing thermostats to make adjustments based on household energy consumption; design these systems for automatic adjustments to energy usage depending on price signals, energy spikes, appliance use, charging time (e.g., for EVs), weather patterns, occupancy, and related factors; ensure thermostats can automatically update utility rates, weather forecasts, and other data that support cost- and energy-efficient use.
  • Develop smart thermostats and smart home systems that can be grid-integrated for demand management. 
  • Design software for smart and programmable thermostats that provides detailed feedback and individualized suggestions to consumers on energy usage, costs, and estimated savings.
  • Research how users interact with smart and programmable thermostats; examine impact of user interfaces (UIs) on consumer use; develop simplified UIs to facilitate adoption.
  • Research the relationship between household decision-making and smart or programmable thermostat adoption; highlight recommendations for reaching household decision-makers.

Communities, Households, and Individuals

  • Upgrade to a smart or programmable thermostat, learn how to use its features, set the programming accordingly, and override the system as little as possible.
  • Consult and work with licensed heating and cooling system installers to determine best available options for smart or programmable thermostats, installation, and maintenance.
  • Make sure your thermostat is installed in a position that allows for easy, unobstructed access.
  • Take advantage of public incentives such as subsidies or low-interest financing for installation, retrofits, and/or maintenance.
  • If provided by your smart thermostat or energy provider, opt into alerts that inform you of abnormally high energy usage which can be an early warning of problems with a heating and cooling system.
  • Take time to understand your smart or programmable thermostat; use profile settings and scheduling to optimize energy and money savings.
  • If you own a smart thermostat, opt into demand response programs to lower energy consumption during peak times; turn on notifications for heating and cooling system maintenance.
  • Share your experience with your neighbors, community, and social networks, and offer help in programming a thermostat where appropriate.
  • If possible, regularly schedule heating and cooling system maintenance and upgrades, including for related equipment such as thermostats. 
  • If smart or programmable thermostats are not an option, manually adjust your thermostat to reduce energy consumption when you’re not home, during peak hours, or to reflect weather conditions; consult your energy provider for tips on thermostat adjustments that can save money and energy.

“Take Action” Sources

Evidence Base

Consensus of effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions: High 

There is strong consensus that smart and programmable thermostats will reduce energy use and associated emissions when used to regularly adjust temperatures. 

Numerous studies have demonstrated that energy savings with smart or programmable thermostats can be significant but also vary significantly. For example, A review by Yuan et al. (2024) of occupancy-based control studies for heating, air conditioning and ventilation systems found energy savings of 7–44%. Pang et al. (2021) noted that factors such as climate conditions, building characteristics, occupant behaviors, and setback temperatures can affect energy savings outcomes. 

Pritoni et al. (2016) found that field study outcomes for smart thermostats can differ from the outcomes predicted by models, which are the most common approach to estimating energy savings and, by extension, emissions savings. Factors that can account for some of this discrepancy include comfort preferences, overrides, poor programming, and occupancy (Pritoni et al., 2015; Stopps & Touchie, 2021). 

A major barrier to realizing energy savings with smart or programmable thermostats is getting households to use the programming feature. Bielig et al. (2025) demonstrated that smart thermostat adoption and use are tied to perceived value, usefulness, and ease of use in European Union countries. Meanwhile, Pritoni et al. (2015) highlighted how many U.S. households have a poor understanding of how and when programmed set points save energy, and identified challenges with programming thermostats and comfort concerns as barriers to their use. Smart thermostats that learn occupant behaviors and preferences have shown to be easier to use than programmable thermostats (Tamas et al., 2021) and can achieve higher energy savings with higher thermal comfort (Nägele et al., 2017).

The results presented in this document summarize findings from five original studies, 10 reports, nine databases, two market research reports, and 11 product information web pages. This reflects current evidence from 11 countries, primarily high-income countries, and seven global regions. We recognize this limited geographic scope creates bias, and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.

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Use Atmospheric Oxidation Enhancement

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Summary

Atmospheric oxidation enhancement (AOE) of methane is a technology that injects highly reactive hydroxyl and chlorine radical aerosols into the air to accelerate the natural conversion of methane into CO₂. Methane is a greenhouse gas found naturally in the atmosphere, but human activities such as production and use of fossil fuels, landfilling waste, and increasing populations of ruminant animals have dramatically increased concentrations. Methane decays in the atmosphere in ~10 years but, because it is ~80 times stronger at trapping heat than CO₂ on a 20-year basis, actions to reduce its concentration more quickly have climate benefits. 

AOE for methane removal is still in the early phases of research, and its ability to meaningfully and cost-effectively remove methane is questionable. In addition, there are other more practical, cost-effective, and proven technologies that can prevent methane emissions from entering the atmosphere (e.g., Improve Landfill ManagementManage Oil & Gas Methane and Manage Coal Mine Methane). And, this solution, which is designed to alter atmospheric chemistry, could have unintended consequences, present novel risks to Earth systems, and pose geopolitical, legal, and ethical challenges. Therefore, even though this solution addresses a potent GHG, it is “Not Recommended.” 

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Atmosphieric oxidation enhancement is not recommended as a a climate solution.
Overview

What is our assessment?

Based on the potential for harmful impacts, the risks of using AOE to destroy atmospheric methane outweigh its uncertain benefits. Because of this, as well as the fact that there are other effective solutions to reduce methane emissions already available, this climate solution is “Not Recommended.”

Plausible Could it work? Yes
Ready Is it ready? No
Evidence Are there data to evaluate it? No
Effective Does it consistently work? ?
Impact Is it big enough to matter? ?
Risk Is it risky or harmful? Yes
Cost Is it cheap? No

What is it?

AOE of methane is a technology designed to accelerate the natural decay of methane to CO₂  by increasing the concentration of hydroxyl and chlorine radicals in the air. In the presence of sunlight and oxygen, these molecules convert methane to CO₂. This solution aims to increase the atmospheric concentration of these molecules by injecting precursors, such as iron salts and hydrogen peroxide, into the air.

Does it work?

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, more than 80 times stronger than CO₂ at trapping heat on a 20-year basis. Under natural conditions, it persists in the atmosphere for about 10 years before it converts into CO₂. Therefore, artificially accelerating methane conversion reduces its disproportionate warming impact. 

There is evidence that the concentration of hydroxyl radicals affects the rate at which methane is converted into CO₂ in the atmosphere. However, research into AOE for methane removal is still in its early stages and limited to a few modeling and laboratory studies. There are currently no real-world examples of atmospheric methane removal. The effectiveness of the solution is unknown and uncertain. Based on current research, no one knows if it is possible to remove atmospheric methane at a meaningful scale in a safe and cost-effective manner. 

Why are we excited?

Because methane is such a potent greenhouse gas, any actions to reduce its concentration in the atmosphere would be emergency brake solutions with immediate and disproportionate climate benefits. In addition, unlike direct air capture or carbon capture and storage, there is no need to capture or store the gas that the process produces. 

Why are we concerned?

AOE for methane removal is an untested technology designed to alter atmospheric chemistry that presents novel and potentially uncontrollable risks to Earth systems and ecosystem processes. Hydroxyl and chlorine radicals are highly reactive molecules, and they do not react solely with methane. When they react with other atmospheric constituents they can generate other, even stronger, climate pollutants such as nitrous oxide as well as other air pollutants such as PM2.5, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ground-level ozone, and they could deplete stratospheric ozone. Some proposed AOE methods, such as atmospheric injection of iron salt aerosols, create chlorine radicals. The chlorine- and iron-containing byproducts of these aerosols could adversely affect ocean chemistry and food webs when they are deposited on the ocean surface (see Deploy Ocean Fertilization). 

Other serious concerns include technical feasibility, scalability, cost, monitoring, reporting and verification, and governance. For example, in order for methane in the atmosphere to be reduced at climate-relevant scales, the production of chlorine or hydroxyl radicals would need to be magnitudes greater than the current global production. Costs have not been estimated, but they would likely be high. New tools for monitoring atmospheric methane would need to be developed to quantify the amounts of methane removed for accurate accounting and verification. Similar to stratospheric aerosol injection, deployment of atmospheric methane removal could pose geopolitical, legal, and ethical challenges. In addition, it could distract from or delay action on other methane reduction approaches, such as managing oil and gas methanemanaging coal mine methaneimproving landfill management, and increasing centralized composting.

Solution in Action

References

He, M., Jacob, D. J., Estrada, L. A., Varon, D. J., Sulprizio, M., Balasus, N., East, J. D., Penn, E., Pendergrass, D. C., Chen, Z., Mooring, T. A., Maasakkers, J. D., Brodrick, P. G., Frankenberg, C., Bowman, K. W., & Bruhwiler, L. (2026). Attributing 2019–2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations. Science Advances12(15), Article eadz9007. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adz9007

Jackson, R. B., Abernethy, S., Canadell, J. G., Cargnello, M., Davis, S. J., Féron, S., Fuss, S., Heyer, A. J., Hong, C., Jones, C. D., Damon Matthews, H., O’Connor, F. M., Pisciotta, M., Rhoda, H. M., de Richter, R., Solomon, E. I., Wilcox, J. L., & Zickfeld, K. (2021). Atmospheric methane removal: A research agenda. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences379(2210), Article 20200454. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0454

Lackner, K. S. (2020). Practical constraints on atmospheric methane removal. Nature Sustainability3(5), Article 357. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0496-7

Lebling, K., & Harasaki, H. (2025). 5 things to know about atmospheric methane removal [Insights]. World Resources Institute. Link to source: https://www.wri.org/insights/atmospheric-methane-removal

Li, Q., Meidan, D., Hess, P., Añel, J. A., Cuevas, C. A., Doney, S., Fernandez, R. P., van Herpen, M., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Johnson, M. S., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J-F.,  Röckmann, T., Mahowald, N. M., & Saiz-Lopez, A. (2023). Global environmental implications of atmospheric methane removal through chlorine-mediated chemistry-climate interactions. Nature Communications14(1), Article 4045. Link to source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39794-7

Lindsey, R. (2025, May 21). Climate change: Atmospheric carbon dioxide. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Link to source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

Liu, Y., Yao, X., Zhou, L., Ming, T., Li, W., & de Richter, R. (2024). Removal of atmospheric methane by increasing hydroxyl radicals via a water vapor enhancement strategy. Atmosphere15(9), Article 1046. Link to source: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/9/1046

Ming, T., Li, W., Yuan, Q., Davies, P., de Richter, R., Peng, C., Deng, Q., Yuan, Y., Caillol, S., & Zhou, N. (2022). Perspectives on removal of atmospheric methane. Advances in Applied Energy5, Article 100085. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100085

Nisbet-Jones, P. B. R., Fernandez, J. M., Fisher, R. E., France, J. L., Lowry, D., Waltham, D. A., Woolley Maisch, C. A., & Nisbet, E. G. (2022). Is the destruction or removal of atmospheric methane a worthwhile option? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences380(2215), Article 20210108. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0108

Pennacchio, L., Mikkelsen, M. K., Krogsbøll, M., van Herpen, M., & Johnson, M. S. (2024). Physical and practical constraints on atmospheric methane removal technologies. Environmental Research Letters19(10), Article 104058. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041

Spark Climate Solutions. (n.d.-a). Atmospheric methane removal. Retrieved March 3, 2026, from Link to source: https://www.sparkclimate.org/methane-removal/home

Spark Climate Solutions. (n.d.-b). Approaches to atmospheric methane removal. Retrieved March 3, 2026, from Link to source: https://www.sparkclimate.org/methane-removal/primer/approaches

van Herpen, M. M. J. W., Li, Q., Saiz-Lopez, A., Liisberg, J. B., Röckmann, T., Cuevas, C. A., Fernandez, R. P., Mak, J. E., Mahowald, N. M., Hess, P., Meidan, D., Stuut, J.-B. W., & Johnson, M. S. (2023). Photocatalytic chlorine atom production on mineral dust–sea spray aerosols over the North Atlantic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences120(31), Article e2303974120, Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2303974120

Wang, J., & He, Q. P. (2023). Methane removal from air: Challenges and opportunities. Methane2(4), 404–414. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3390/methane2040027

Credits

Lead Fellow:

  • Jason Lam

Internal Reviewers:

  • Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
  • Paul C. West, Ph.D.
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Atmospheric Oxidation Enhancement
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Deploy Precision Fermentation

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The Drawdown Explorer’s Deploy Precision Fermentation assessment will be coming soon.
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Deploy
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Precision Fermentation
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Five key insights into global greenhouse gas emissions

What’s going on with planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions? 

As a data scientist, I get to ask these big, thorny questions about climate change, then take a deep dive into the data to see what story emerges. For this question in particular, I found five compelling insights, told through data, that show us where we are and where we are headed in terms of tackling society’s greatest challenge.

Project Drawdown awarded US$150,000 from The Whiteman Family Foundation

Funding will provide Project Drawdown with unrestricted funds to support climate solutions research and action in the food sector
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Project Drawdown is honored to be awarded a one-year, US$150,000 grant from The Whiteman Family Foundation.

This funding from The Whiteman Family Foundation will help drive Project Drawdown’s efforts to identify and characterize the most effective climate solutions that can address climate change at scale – especially those that address emissions from the food, agriculture, and land use sector.

“Project Drawdown is delighted to receive the support of The Whiteman Family Foundation and once again partner on advancing science-based climate solutions in the most crucial areas,” says Project Drawdown Executive Director Jonathan Foley, Ph.D.

The Whiteman Family Foundation grant will support the ongoing development and maintenance of Drawdown Explorer, the free, game-changing platform that uses the best available data to lay out pathbreaking new strategies for accelerating climate action. It will also help build out Project Drawdown’s growing focus on food, enabling in-depth research and effective communications to help businesses, impact investors, philanthropists, and others identify and deploy actions across the spectrum of climate solutions associated with food, agriculture, and land use.

“At The Whiteman Family Foundation, we prioritize organizations that create impact across an entire issue area,” says Kaylyn Fern, Director of Strategic Philanthropy. “Project Drawdown is a leader in the climate space, translating years of rigorous research into practical, actionable solutions available at the click of a button. Their work makes it easier for decision-makers, funders, and communities to identify and implement effective climate strategies when they are needed most. We are proud to support Project Drawdown and deepen our commitment to advancing solutions that address the climate crisis.”


About Project Drawdown
Project Drawdown is the world’s leading guide to science-based climate solutions. Our mission is to drive meaningful climate action around the world. A 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, Project Drawdown is funded by individual and institutional donations.

About The Whiteman Family Foundation

Founded in December 2021, The Whiteman Family Foundation is dedicated to enhancing our world by ensuring people have the resources they need to live happy, healthy lives. Based in Boulder, Colorado, the Foundation supports a diverse portfolio of organizations that approach their work and impact with an eye towards intersectionality, innovation, capacity building, and balance—principles that reflect the Foundation’s own values. Its grantmaking spans multiple impact areas, including basic needs, mental health and research, access & opportunity, and environmental stewardship. Through its trust-based philanthropy and systems-level approach, The Whiteman Family Foundation empowers partners and communities to drive durable, long-term change. For more information about The Whiteman Family Foundation, please visit whitemanfamilyfoundation.org

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Deploy Leaf Protein Concentrates

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We will keep watching Deploy Leaf Protein Concentrates as a climate solution.
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Deploy
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Leaf Protein Concentrates
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