For decades, environmental debates have been framed around a stark trade-off: economic growth lifts people out of poverty but comes at the expense of forests, wildlife, and climate stability. More people and richer diets mean more farmland and less nature.
However, a new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by researchers from the University of Minnesota, Project Drawdown, Bowdoin College, and Purdue University suggests that this long-assumed conflict between development and conservation may not be inevitable.
Analyzing global trends in population growth, food demand, crop yields, and agricultural trade, the research team found that faster economic development in lower-income countries could reduce pressure to convert the world’s natural ecosystems into farmland.
“Our results show that working to help nations develop economically, while providing benefits to people, also can lead to positive outcomes for biodiversity and climate,” says James Gerber, Ph.D., Senior Scientist at Project Drawdown and a study coauthor. “In other words, doing the right thing for people – which is where we should always start – is also doing the right thing for the planet.”
Agriculture already dominates the planet’s landscape. Croplands cover about 12%, and grazing lands cover about 25% of Earth’s ice-free land surface, making agriculture a major contributor to climate change as well as the leading driver of habitat loss for terrestrial species.
The study estimates that maintaining current trends would lead to a dramatic expansion of global croplands during the 21st century. These projections suggest that farmland could grow by more than 1 billion hectares by 2100 – an increase that would threaten vast areas of remaining natural habitat.
Much of that expansion would occur in lower-income countries where populations are growing rapidly, and crop yields remain relatively low. But more rapid economic development in lower-income countries could change that trajectory. As incomes rise, countries typically undergo a “demographic transition” in which birth rates decline and population growth slows. Economic development also tends to bring improvements in agricultural productivity through better technology, infrastructure, and research investment.
The study found:
- Continuing current trends in agricultural production and food consumption could result in a near doubling of cropland area in lower-income countries to the detriment of biodiversity and the climate.
- Economic development in lower-income countries could reduce future global cropland requirements due to slower population growth, improved crop yield, and higher volumes of global crop trade, which could more than offset rising per capita crop demand.
- Decreasing per capita crop demand in higher-income countries by eating healthier diets, reducing food waste, and reducing biofuel production could reduce cropland requirements, especially if combined with expanded agricultural trade.
- Combining accelerated economic development in lower-income countries with reduced crop demand in higher-income countries could dramatically shrink global cropland area by the year 2100.
Taken together, the findings suggest that policies promoting agricultural innovation, economic opportunity, and more efficient food systems could produce an unusual combination of outcomes: less poverty, less habitat destruction, and lower climate emissions.
“Accelerating economic development in lower-income countries can reduce poverty and, more surprisingly, also be good for nature,” says Stephen Polasky, Ph.D., coauthor of the study, Regents Professor and co-founder of NatCap TEEMs at the University of Minnesota College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences. “Higher incomes are associated with lower population growth and increased crop yields, which can more than offset growth in per capita consumption.”
“Economic growth is often viewed as working against conservation,” says Craig Packer, Ph.D., coauthor of the study and Distinguished McKnight University Professor in the University of Minnesota College of Biological Sciences. “Faster development in poorer countries would not only improve the lives of millions of people but could substantially reduce the pressure to clear new land for agriculture.”
The authors added that achieving accelerated economic development, increasing agricultural research and development spending, reducing crop demand in higher-income countries, and reducing trade barriers all require overcoming substantial obstacles.
About Project Drawdown
Project Drawdown is the world’s leading resource for climate solutions. By advancing science-based climate solutions, fostering bold climate leadership, and promoting new narratives and voices, the 501(c)(3) nonprofit, nonpartisan organization is helping the world stop climate change as quickly, safely, and equitably as possible. Learn more at drawdown.org.
About NatCap TEEMs
NatCap TEEMs (Natural Capital Alliance: The Earth-Economy Modelers) at the University of Minnesota aims to improve understanding of the integrated earth-economy system and to inform decision-making for sustainable development on a livable planet. Learn more at natcapteems.umn.edu
About the College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resource Sciences
The University of Minnesota’s College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resource Sciences strives to inspire minds, nourish people, and sustainably enhance the natural environment. Learn more at cfans.umn.edu.
About the College of Biological Sciences
The University of Minnesota’s College of Biological Sciences at the University of Minnesota covers the spectrum of life from molecules to ecosystems. Learn more at cbs.umn.edu.
